What's going on in Ukraine?

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inactionman
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tabascoboy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 12:19 pm
And here we go again...unless they were only given enough ammo to ensure no bad news for May 9th Parade Day
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I may be misreading this, but it feels like the Wagner complaints about lack of support have really ramped up since the flow of convicts have dried up (I think recruitment from prisons ended in late Feb?)

Essentially they were happy enough throwing untrained criminals into the breach (or lack of breach), but as soon as this canon fodder chewed up and the relatively professional* Wagner mercenaries have to start dying, they've started looking for a way out. Easiest just to blame the army fr lakc of support than to admit they can't accomplish their goals without unacceptable losses.


*it's odd - it seems like the mercenary end of Wagner are shit out of ideas when they can't just send old men and winos out to draw enemy fire.
Last edited by inactionman on Tue May 09, 2023 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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inactionman wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 1:17 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 12:19 pm
And here we go again...unless they were only given enough ammo to ensure no bad news for May 9th Parade Day
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I may be misreading this, but it feels like the Wagner complaints about lack of support have really ramped up since the flow of convicts have dried up (I think recruitment from prisons ended in late Feb?)

Essentially they were happy enough throwing untrained criminals into the breach (or lack of breach), but as soon as this canon fodder chewed up and the relatively professional* Wagner mercenaries have to start dying, they've started looking for a way out. Easiest just to blame the army fr lakc of support than to admit they can't accomplish their goals without unacceptable losses.


*it's odd - it seems like the mercenary end of Wagner are shit out of ideas when they can't just send old men and winos out to draw enemy fire.
Agreed, unlike the convicts who were just looking for a get out of jail free card, no point in earning good money as a merc if you may not live to enjoy it! Not just the convicts too but the raw recruits and militias that RU may prefer to hold back for their own use.

And Prigozhin has his own agenda to think about too
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Hellraiser
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Very famous piece of footage from the first day of the invasion:



The body of the commander of that Mi-24 Hind, Senior Lieutenant Roman Mankyshev, was found washed up on shore at Vyshhorod by staff of Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant this morning.
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Tank production in Ukraine

Meanwhile, Rheinmetall sees itself on the right track to being able to manufacture tanks, anti-aircraft defense systems and ammunition in Ukraine in the future. Attempts are being made to conclude some cooperation agreements and joint ventures with Ukrainian companies in the coming weeks, said CEO Armin Papperger in Düsseldorf. It is about joint ventures for vehicle systems, air defense and ammunition. "In this way we will enable Ukraine to defend itself in the medium and long term." Investments in new plants would come from the Ukrainian state.

As a specific example, he went into the plan that has been known for two months to build Panther-type main battle tanks in the Ukraine. According to the Rheinmetall plans, it could be up to 400 per year. The previous talks with Kiev on the tank project are promising, the manager said at the general meeting of Germany's largest armaments company.

Just as the Lynx infantry fighting vehicle is built in a plant in Hungary, "our newly developed Panther battle tank could roll off the production line in a Ukrainian plant based on a comparable model." In the next ten years, the demand from Ukraine will be very high. Rheinmetall is on a strong growth course, which is also due to the increased global demand for armaments against the background of the Ukraine war. Speaking to shareholders, Papperger said: "You can assume that 2023 will be the best year in the company's history in terms of incoming orders." The group has very large capacities for tank ammunition and artillery, said the CEO. This is how you currently produce 150,000 rounds of tank ammunition. The artillery has a capacity of up to 600,000 rounds. "
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This is glorious.

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Hellraiser
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The Poles are ceasing to recognise the name Kaliningrad and will only use the name Królewiec (Koenigsberg) from now on.
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Hellraiser
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AFU recaptured 7.8 sq km of ground at Bakhmut today after forcing the 6th and 7th companies of the Russian 72nd Brigade to retreat with heavy losses. Prigozhin was going ape-shit about this earlier and it was confirmed by the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade about two hours ago.
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fishfoodie
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Hellraiser wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 11:06 pm AFU recaptured 7.8 sq km of ground at Bakhmut today after forcing the 6th and 7th companies of the Russian 72nd Brigade to retreat with heavy losses. Prigozhin was going ape-shit about this earlier and it was confirmed by the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade about two hours ago.
He might be being a useful idiot to the Ukrainians here; with him shaming Moscow to commit dwindling resources to a pretty meaningless location, which mainly serves as a place for the Ukrainians to kill Orcs,, while they focus their main 2nd front thrust elsewhere.

This could of course be why he (supposedly), hasn't received the ammo he requested, because the logistics guys aren't as stupid as he is.
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Niegs wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 1:30 am
Not from this year.

Google says its from Aug 2018
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UK reportedly close to doing the same
petej
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TB63 wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 8:06 am
I've kind of assumed various people within Russia have had enough of prigozhin and he has served his purpose. Put some blocking units behind wagner and let the Ukrainians take care of them.

But as an initial contact in this phase of the war it looks very promising.
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Glaston wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 5:52 am
Niegs wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 1:30 am
Not from this year.

Google says its from Aug 2018
Yeah, I noticed the badges were missing from the turret. Maybe even a -76 version than an -85?
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The more this goes on, the more it confirms he's not right in the head

Wagner chief: We’ll rip out Macron’s teeth

Yevgeny Prigozhin is fuming — again.

This time he was triggered by the French parliament designating his Wagner Group of mercenaries as a terrorist organization — and on Wednesday he threatened French President Emmanuel Macron directly.

Responding to a question from Russian journalists, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner was saving people in Central Africa — where Wagner has gained a strong foothold and squeezed France’s presence in the region — from French soldiers, who “simply mocked them.”

“We can pull out rotten teeth from those bad mouths with pliers,” Prigozhin added. “We can pull out Macron’s teeth and, generally, everyone’s teeth who spill pathogenic filth (about Wagner).”
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Uncle fester
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tabascoboy wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 3:42 pm The more this goes on, the more it confirms he's not right in the head

Wagner chief: We’ll rip out Macron’s teeth

Yevgeny Prigozhin is fuming — again.

This time he was triggered by the French parliament designating his Wagner Group of mercenaries as a terrorist organization — and on Wednesday he threatened French President Emmanuel Macron directly.

Responding to a question from Russian journalists, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner was saving people in Central Africa — where Wagner has gained a strong foothold and squeezed France’s presence in the region — from French soldiers, who “simply mocked them.”

“We can pull out rotten teeth from those bad mouths with pliers,” Prigozhin added. “We can pull out Macron’s teeth and, generally, everyone’s teeth who spill pathogenic filth (about Wagner).”
The traveler call out video energy is strong with this guy.
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The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr confirmed today that Leopard 2A6s are already in combat. Rumours that they were used in the counterattack south of Bakhmut in the last 48hrs.
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Kremlin calls Polish decision to rename Kaliningrad 'hostile act'

May 10 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Poland's decision to rename the Russian city of Kaliningrad in its official documents was a "hostile act", as ties continue to fray over the Ukraine war.

Kaliningrad, which sits in an exclave that is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic coast, was known by the German name of Koenigsberg until after World War II, when it was annexed by the Soviet Union and renamed to honour politician Mikhail Kalinin.

Warsaw says Kalinin's connection to the 1940 Katyn massacre - when thousands of Polish officers were executed by Soviet forces - had negative connotations and that the city should now be referred to as Królewiec, its name when it was ruled by the Kingdom of Poland in the 15th and 16th centuries. "The current Russian name of this city is an artificial baptism unrelated to either the city or the region," Poland's committee on geographical standardisation said on Tuesday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision "bordered on madness". "We know that throughout history Poland has slipped from time to time into this madness of hatred towards Russians," he told a briefing.

Kaliningrad was cut off from Moscow when Lithuania became independent during the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In the city itself, people questioned in the street were split over the Polish move.

"(This land) is conquered by us, by my ancestors ... this is our territory and there can be no Królewiec whatsoever," said an elderly man who did not give his name.

Others appeared to be less upset. One woman noted Lithuania had also renamed the city Królewiec.

"Nothing would change ... apart from need to change all their documents. If they want it, let them do it," she said.

Relations between Poland and Russia have historically often been very strained.

Moscow says it liberated Poland when its forces drove out Nazi forces at the end of the war. Most Poles believe the Soviet Union replaced Nazi occupation with another form of repression.

Poland, a NATO member, strongly backed Ukraine after Russia's invasion, and has stepped up the demolition of memorials to fallen Soviet troops across the country.
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So Zelensky banging on about how it's too soon for the major offensive...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427
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The UK has delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. Range of 560km. Game on.
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tabascoboy
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Flockwitt wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 9:43 am So Zelensky banging on about how it's too soon for the major offensive...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427
Possibly just trying to temper expectations of an imminent massive movement into the occupied areas and also keep the Russians guessing whether smaller ops are part of something more concerted - although it's hard to hide anything large scale with air/satellite/drone recon as much now.
inactionman
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Hellraiser wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 10:44 am The UK has delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. Range of 560km. Game on.
A certain bridge is starting to look a bit precarious.
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Hmm, I suspect Ukraine are waiting for some specific kit.

Given that UK have just supplied air lunched Storm Shadow missiles developed in the 90s, are we to expecting them to be launched from Migs?
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tabascoboy
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Hellraiser wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 10:44 am The UK has delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. Range of 560km. Game on.
And the advantage of being able to launch them from well away from the front line, like RU does.



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dkm57 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:16 am Hmm, I suspect Ukraine are waiting for some specific kit.

Given that UK have just supplied air lunched Storm Shadow missiles developed in the 90s, are we to expecting them to be launched from Migs?
Potentially SU-24 but no idea how many of these are left (saw some article about testing done earlier in Poland https://avia-pro.net/news/v-polshe-nach ... mi-scalp-i)
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C69
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Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
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C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
No idea what if anything has been agreed but if I were Ukrainian I’d say “ You’re giving stuff, we’re giving lives”.
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tabascoboy
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C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
Possibly the seizure of RU financial assets held in the West will help balance that - a tiny bit

tc27
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Look like the Ukrainian AF has had a number of its SU24s refitted to carry Storm Shadow. As with the American Harm it looks like the aircraft just carries the weapon to the right place and tells in to launch (the guidance is completely internal to the missile) so its not too hard to fit.

Does make me laugh as the MOD is really crap at (amongst other things) fitting weapons to aircraft without it taking years and millions of pounds...apparently when the shit hits the fan its not that hard.
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C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
To be fair, it was all supposed to be shot at the Russians at some point anyway.
tc27
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C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
I know in the case of the UK lots of the NLAWS and Brimstone missiles were from older batches that were about to 'expire' meaning batteries and electronics were past service date - so essentially they cost nothing as they would have being binned anyway. As for the spending itself its the bargain of the century by any objective standard?
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tc27 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:26 pm
C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
I know in the case of the UK lots of the NLAWS and Brimstone missiles were from older batches that were about to 'expire' meaning batteries and electronics were past service date - so essentially they cost nothing as they would have being binned anyway. As for the spending itself its the bargain of the century by any objective standard?
Probably saved a bit as disposal can be expensive.
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C69
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tc27 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:26 pm
C69 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:49 am Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others
I know in the case of the UK lots of the NLAWS and Brimstone missiles were from older batches that were about to 'expire' meaning batteries and electronics were past service date - so essentially they cost nothing as they would have being binned anyway. As for the spending itself its the bargain of the century by any objective standard?
I have no issue whatsoever with giving money but was thinking was the deal just like WW2 and the money we repaid back to the USA untill the 1990s ?
I am sure the IMF, USA and EU will have done deals rather than just been benevolent.
tc27
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Anyway giving these weapons is a significant step - Ukraine can now strike operational targets deep in the Russian rear. They oved their logistical hubs back to avoid HIMARS but these too are now in range for Ukraine and Storm Shadow is a terrain hugging weapon so very hard to shoot down.

As with the Challengers I hope the UK taking the first step emboldens others to step up.


I wonder if Insane_Homer and others who claimed the UK would side with Russian because a few Oligarchs own houses in Mayfair are still pontificating away?
inactionman
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tc27 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 12:24 pm Look like the Ukrainian AF has had a number of its SU24s refitted to carry Storm Shadow. As with the American Harm it looks like the aircraft just carries the weapon to the right place and tells in to launch (the guidance is completely internal to the missile) so its not too hard to fit.

Does make me laugh as the MOD is really crap at (amongst other things) fitting weapons to aircraft without it taking years and millions of pounds...apparently when the shit hits the fan its not that hard.
Doing it and doing it well are two separate things.

Not that MOD does it necessarily well (and I should put 'doing it sustainably'), but integration is more than just getting it to sit on a pylon and fall off of it when required. Ukraine are going to take them and use them in short order, so no worries about developing, testing, integrating across complex sets of systems, training, facilities management commercial management, long term storage and capability uplift, or upon aspects like damage/wear and tear to launch vehicles.

I worked for many years in MOD Logs, and it is not easy - not least as it's a constantly shifting world that you have to keep changing to meet. Ukraine just has to beat Russia as it finds it, here and now, which is a remarkably clear mission statement. It's not worried about ensuring weapons systems remain effective against all possible threats, real and forecast, or operating within budgets and resource limits.

But your broader point is valid - MOD do drag thing out, and a lot of the issues I faced were either commercial, not technical, or caused by a constant revolving door of decision-makers who could upset direction on a biennial basis (two years being the standard back-office deployment for military folk) who may know what goes on at the sharp end but are not experts in technical design or project delivery.
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dkm57 wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 11:16 am Hmm, I suspect Ukraine are waiting for some specific kit.

Given that UK have just supplied air lunched Storm Shadow missiles developed in the 90s, are we to expecting them to be launched from Migs?
A friend lives near Fairford, back in early April he saw multiple formations of C-130s flying in the direction of the base. He said it was unusual to see so many groups of 3 or 5 together in such a short period of time, so unusual he had never seen it before. If you then wondered "this is too close to the attack to rush something, unless it's really significant as nothing 'normal' would be airlifted in this way, does the UK have an ATACMS like system?", and then Googled you would've found articles like this:
https://eurasiantimes.com/storm-russian ... s-refuses/

My guess is this is going public now, so that all the craters about to appear in the Russian rear are explainable. The attack must be getting close.
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