What's going on in Ukraine?

[Flockwitt]

hromakske's latest drop on the Oplot, the modernised T-84 that Ukraine makes itself. Provides some insight into how difficult it is for them with all the new equipment they're receiving.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIMw53-MYZE

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-84

Reznikov was banging on about these also the other day... every tank counts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPZyfHSqyxc

[Flockwitt]

So it turns out a bunch of the French AMX-10RC plus other IFV's are still only in the process of being delivered, along with the Polish IFV's and Abrahms just entering training. Could well be the/a main offensive could easily be delayed another month.

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

So it turns out a bunch of the French AMX-10RC plus other IFV's are still only in the process of being delivered, along with the Polish IFV's and Abrahms just entering training. Could well be the/a main offensive could easily be delayed another month.

The RC are newly pledged the others are in units (Reznikov had a spin). Training in Canjuers for 2000 troups also. I suspect more VABS are coming with these as training 2000 troops on the AMX 10 would mean the entire park goes and Jaguars are being delivered in small numbers.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

France is also sending Storm Shadows, or rather SCALP-EGs, to Ukraine.

[fishfoodie]

France is also sending Storm Shadows, or rather SCALP-EGs, to Ukraine.

They have to be looking at that nice juicy bridge, & the shambles that is the Orcs Air Defense, & thinking what a crushing blow it would be if they could shut it down again, & how much harder it would make the Orc reinforcing when any Ukrainian eventually happens.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[TheNatalShark]

Don't think I've seen this posted yet, but it really was impressive how well kept and fast they work to remove ongoing traces and affects.

Bucharest's parks looked more active warzone than Kyiv's.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

We expect to receive 40-50 F-16 fighters from our partners, — in an interview with Politico, adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Sak.

According to Sak, Ukraine wants to get enough planes to form three or four squadrons to protect its skies from Russian bombing, especially against the background of the use of guided glide bombs by the Russians, which hit targets at a greater distance.

"Everyone understands that this topic is ripe for discussion. No one said that it is impossible. If we compare with what happened three months ago when we were still fighting for tanks, today everyone is talking about a coalition of militants. We understand that our air defense will not be complete without the F-16 fighter jets," Sak said.

[Flockwitt]

So the UK and Netherlands have agreed to form a partnership to provide Ukraine with fighter jets in term of purchasing and training, it's obviously just a first step, but wondering how this will work out in practice. I guess the idea would be to get enough other European countries on board such that the US would provide the necessary approvals and equipment.

[Flockwitt]

One thing about the current status, with Ukraine finally getting the ammo they need the balance of attrition is now clearly in their favour. 672 fire missions in a single day with impressive reward is claimed here for the Tavriia front.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/16/7402469/

We also see reports too from around Bahkmut where the artillery prep is considerable and in depth, hitting not just the front line troops but those in the rear simultaneously.

[Slick]

So it turns out a bunch of the French AMX-10RC plus other IFV's are still only in the process of being delivered, along with the Polish IFV's and Abrahms just entering training. Could well be the/a main offensive could easily be delayed another month.

The RC are newly pledged the others are in units (Reznikov had a spin). Training in Canjuers for 2000 troups also. I suspect more VABS are coming with these as training 2000 troops on the AMX 10 would mean the entire park goes and Jaguars are being delivered in small numbers.

Is it possible that all this is a bluff and they have shit loads of weaponry already delivered and teams training ready for a massive assault? Genuine question

[tabascoboy]

Complete text:

I'm almost certain that the primary target of the most recent Russian attack on Kyiv was one or both Patriot batteries, which wouldn't be the first time. It tells how concerned Russians are and how hellbent they want to remove that air defense system from the table. The Patriots obviously perform exemplary. This very attack by the Russians paraphrases that fact, otherwise they wouldn't go that length, twice.

They will likely try it again and that has an advantage and gives opportunities. It draws their fire away from the fights in the east and south. And it aids to improve an already excellent air defense system. I'm sure the US-engineers collect valuable data and there is always room to improve war tactics.

Only the great people of Kyiv have to endure this terror, since the debris of the neutralized Russian missiles and interceptors are also not without danger. But when I hear stories that many of them walk with a big smile through the streets today, then I'm sure that they will endure this, too. Thumbs up to them and remember, you are not alone.

[Hellraiser]

So it turns out a bunch of the French AMX-10RC plus other IFV's are still only in the process of being delivered, along with the Polish IFV's and Abrahms just entering training. Could well be the/a main offensive could easily be delayed another month.

The RC are newly pledged the others are in units (Reznikov had a spin). Training in Canjuers for 2000 troups also. I suspect more VABS are coming with these as training 2000 troops on the AMX 10 would mean the entire park goes and Jaguars are being delivered in small numbers.

Is it possible that all this is a bluff and they have shit loads of weaponry already delivered and teams training ready for a massive assault? Genuine question

A lot of stuff has been sent that hasn't been publicised, particularly engineering and bridging equipment, and amphibious vehicles.

[Flockwitt]

So it turns out a bunch of the French AMX-10RC plus other IFV's are still only in the process of being delivered, along with the Polish IFV's and Abrahms just entering training. Could well be the/a main offensive could easily be delayed another month.

The RC are newly pledged the others are in units (Reznikov had a spin). Training in Canjuers for 2000 troups also. I suspect more VABS are coming with these as training 2000 troops on the AMX 10 would mean the entire park goes and Jaguars are being delivered in small numbers.

Is it possible that all this is a bluff and they have shit loads of weaponry already delivered and teams training ready for a massive assault? Genuine question

From reports of troop accumulation on the Zap front and the obvious ammo provision Ukraine could undertake a strategic level offensive. Whether they should or not tomorrow is another matter.

It's not really bluff and counter-bluff. The weapons supply has been well reported, unknown issues are more around actual status of supplementary maintenance and logistics with fielding such a diverse range of equipment. The question is rather just when in the process of ongoing transfer of units Ukraine does choose to pull the trigger as it were.

[Hellraiser]

The RC are newly pledged the others are in units (Reznikov had a spin). Training in Canjuers for 2000 troups also. I suspect more VABS are coming with these as training 2000 troops on the AMX 10 would mean the entire park goes and Jaguars are being delivered in small numbers.

Is it possible that all this is a bluff and they have shit loads of weaponry already delivered and teams training ready for a massive assault? Genuine question

From reports of troop accumulation on the Zap front and the obvious ammo provision Ukraine could undertake a strategic level offensive. Whether they should or not tomorrow is another matter.

It's not really bluff and counter-bluff. The weapons supply has been well reported, unknown issues are more around actual status of supplementary maintenance and logistics with fielding such a diverse range of equipment. The question is rather just when in the process of ongoing transfer of units Ukraine does choose to pull the trigger as it were.

I'm starting to think it could be mid-June before major operations begin. The Storm Shadows/SCALP-EGs are a paradigm changer.

[Enzedder]

Wow, they got them there quick !

15 months is quick?

[Flockwitt]

Is it possible that all this is a bluff and they have shit loads of weaponry already delivered and teams training ready for a massive assault? Genuine question

From reports of troop accumulation on the Zap front and the obvious ammo provision Ukraine could undertake a strategic level offensive. Whether they should or not tomorrow is another matter.

It's not really bluff and counter-bluff. The weapons supply has been well reported, unknown issues are more around actual status of supplementary maintenance and logistics with fielding such a diverse range of equipment. The question is rather just when in the process of ongoing transfer of units Ukraine does choose to pull the trigger as it were.

I'm starting to think it could be mid-June before major operations begin. The Storm Shadows/SCALP-EGs are a paradigm changer.

Yep. Once again thankfully Ukraine has received exactly the right weapon at the right time - they'll put a serious spanner in the works for the Russians.

[weegie01]

A lot of stuff has been sent that hasn't been publicised, particularly engineering and bridging equipment, and amphibious vehicles.

We have a number of friends and relatives who are senior or recent ex senior military. In their estimation the press has been gung ho about the weapons that make big bangs. But it is the less glamourous support and logistics equipment that has been pouring in unnoticed that will really make the difference.

To no one's surprise, there are a lot of British, US and other advisors keeping their heads down in Ukraine. They are keeping well away from the fighting, but are giving support.

They, or at least the British, are also feeding back to their Govts information on what the Ukrainians need. Britian can't afford to give the Ukraine everything they need, so this helps ensure that military aid is prioritised into the most effective areas.

[tabascoboy]

Full tweet text

I had discussions with several officers in Bakhmut and its surrounding area today, and it is disheartening to note that the situation remains very challenging in the city itself. The problem stems from the fact that the russian forces maintain a significant advantage in terms of artillery and mortars numbers.

Regardless of the training, experience and preparation of our soldiers, if positions are reduced to rubble by non-stop shelling, we will be unable to hold them.

We continue to hear assurances about an increase in ammunition production and the time required for production to be rebuilt. However, despite being a year and a half into this conflict, we find ourselves in the same situation as we were a year ago.

The political impotence and reluctance to increase the pace of production and deliveries directly translates into Ukrainians paying with their lives for every instance of missing ammunition that remains undelivered.

[Hellraiser]

[yermum]

A lot of stuff has been sent that hasn't been publicised, particularly engineering and bridging equipment, and amphibious vehicles.

We have a number of friends and relatives who are senior or recent ex senior military. In their estimation the press has been gung ho about the weapons that make big bangs. But it is the less glamourous support and logistics equipment that has been pouring in unnoticed that will really make the difference.

To no one's surprise, there are a lot of British, US and other advisors keeping their heads down in Ukraine. They are keeping well away from the fighting, but are giving support.

They, or at least the British, are also feeding back to their Govts information on what the Ukrainians need. Britian can't afford to give the Ukraine everything they need, so this helps ensure that military aid is prioritised into the most effective areas.

The forklift truck and humble pallet is one of the most important technology transfers from NATO to AFU

[tabascoboy]

[fishfoodie]

Time to deploy the decoys !

[tabascoboy]

Well they say this NOW...

[tabascoboy]

[geordie_6]

France is also sending Storm Shadows, or rather SCALP-EGs, to Ukraine.

Are these the max range version, or an export version with shorter range similar to the Storm Shadows?

[tabascoboy]

Full text of tweets

There is a rather revealing development around Bakhmut. Russians are increasingly targeting the bridges connecting Bakhmut to the west using heavy artillery, mortars and missiles.

Coordinates of the bridge in Ivanivske:
48°34'40.41"N, 37°55'0.78"E

Coordinates of the bridge near Chasiv Yar:
48°35'33.66"N, 37°52'4.37"E

It is not hard to see that Russians apparently do not intend to move further west in that sector and start switching into the defense mode around Bakhmut, trying to cut off the Ukrainian supply lines.

For those asking why Russians didn't target those bridges west of Bakhmut months ago. Because they genuinely believed to take Bakhmut, easily, and head for the actual targets:

Kramatorsk and Sloviansk

They wanted those bridges intact. The fact that they are starting to target them only now, is an admission of their failure and expression of fear that Ukrainians are now coming for them, which btw. they are indeed.

Those Russian attempts are as clumsy as their whole war effort, because those bridges can easily be replaced. The Siversky Donets Canal is not the Mississippi River. Easy task for bridge-layers, such as for 16 "Brückenlegepanzer Biber" which Germany has delivered.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

France is also sending Storm Shadows, or rather SCALP-EGs, to Ukraine.

Are these the max range version, or an export version with shorter range similar to the Storm Shadows?

Unconfirmed. Some of the French export versions do have a longer basic range of up to 290km.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

That Brian E Frydenborg guy really gets around, spamming every bit of Ukraine content on twatter, pushing his own blog.

[Hellraiser]

That Brian E Frydenborg guy really gets around, spamming every bit of Ukraine content on twatter, pushing his own blog.

Yeah, I pay him no heed.

[Hellraiser]

Southern Russian flank at Bakhmut has basically collapsed.

[Hellraiser]