So, coronavirus...

[Tichtheid]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

[Tichtheid]

Next time I’m looking for info on the pandemic I might ask Noel Edmunds, or Leyton Orient’s goalie, or the guy that drives the bread van.

[Openside]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

Worst case 800? Well the NHS wasn’t overrun when we had over 1000 deaths a day so surely we are over reacting a bit With a national lockdown?

[Tichtheid]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

Worst case 800? Well the NHS wasn’t overrun when we had over 1000 deaths a day so surely we are over reacting a bit With a national lockdown?

Not when you see the exponential rise in infections

[Openside]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

Worst case 800? Well the NHS wasn’t overrun when we had over 1000 deaths a day so surely we are over reacting a bit With a national lockdown?

Not when you see the exponential rise in infections

Is it not possible there were more infections last time round just a lot less testing?

[Bimbowomxn]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

There’s enough credence in the number being used by the advisors to move Boris’s position.

It’s the risk free “if we do nothing “ bollocks .

[Tichtheid]

Is it not possible there were more infections last time round just a lot less testing?

I think that’s a very reasonable assumption, but I also think that it will take an amount of time for the virus to spread through the population.

I think it’s also reasonable to assume the spread was slowed due to the initial lockdown.

[SaintK]

But we believe the science right.

Ah yes, Allison Pearson, the voice of reason and accuracy. Makes Glenda Slagg look like a Pulitzer prizewinner
Fantastic spoof on her Telegraph column by Craig Brown in the current edition of Private Eye

I have never heard of her? is there any truth to what she is saying ad hominem attacks on her character aside?

I have no idea. There are so many figures and statistics being bandied around by various groups and individuals it is quite difficult to keep up

[I like neeps]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

Worst case 800? Well the NHS wasn’t overrun when we had over 1000 deaths a day so surely we are over reacting a bit With a national lockdown?

Not when you see the exponential rise in infections

When we had the 1000 deaths per day we were in lockdown. I think about two weeks in. It would've been higher had we not locked down.

Arguing the NHS wasn't overrun last time is an argument for lockdown rather than against it.

[Bimbowomxn]

Worst case 800? Well the NHS wasn’t overrun when we had over 1000 deaths a day so surely we are over reacting a bit With a national lockdown?

Not when you see the exponential rise in infections

When we had the 1000 deaths per day we were in lockdown. I think about two weeks in. It would've been higher had we not locked down.

Arguing the NHS wasn't overrun last time is an argument for lockdown rather than against it.

We’re not having an exponential rise In infections.

Hospitals are not full.

They’ve had 6 months to prepare for the Autumnal load.

They’re lying to cover their ineptitude.

[Bimbowomxn]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

No, a slide with the 4,000 possible deaths was shown during the press conference yesterday.

No caveat about academic modelling was made.

[frodder]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

No, a slide with the 4,000 possible deaths was shown during the press conference yesterday.

No caveat about academic modelling was made.

He's not wrong. It had the Neil Ferguson look about it

[Tichtheid]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

No, a slide with the 4,000 possible deaths was shown during the press conference yesterday.

No caveat about academic modelling was made.

This was the slide, it may be worth a close look

F1EF8BE6-91CE-4B01-88DB-6289F7005AC3.jpeg (61.06 KiB) Viewed 801 times

[Bimbowomxn]

Sage’s Reasonable Worst Case Scenario predicted up to 800 deaths per day. From what I can gather the 4000 estimate comes from a number of academic modelling exercises which assume no intervention whatsoever.

No, a slide with the 4,000 possible deaths was shown during the press conference yesterday.

No caveat about academic modelling was made.

This was the slide, it may be worth a close lookF1EF8BE6-91CE-4B01-88DB-6289F7005AC3.jpeg

Of course because a very quick slide show is where everyone gets a “close” look. It’s use is to scare. It’s a lie.

It has no place in last nights presentation to the general public.

[Tichtheid]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

[Slick]

No, a slide with the 4,000 possible deaths was shown during the press conference yesterday.

No caveat about academic modelling was made.

This was the slide, it may be worth a close lookF1EF8BE6-91CE-4B01-88DB-6289F7005AC3.jpeg

Of course because a very quick slide show is where everyone gets a “close” look. It’s use is to scare. It’s a lie.

It has no place in last nights presentation to the general public.

[Bimbowomxn]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

Well done, you’ve won.


The point I made of course stands either the information presented is relevant or t should not be presented. If you think that’s honest then you’re backward.

[C69]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

[Bimbowomxn]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

Haven’t you got some lies about your hospital to peddle. ?

[Bimbowomxn]

This was the slide, it may be worth a close lookF1EF8BE6-91CE-4B01-88DB-6289F7005AC3.jpeg

Of course because a very quick slide show is where everyone gets a “close” look. It’s use is to scare. It’s a lie.

It has no place in last nights presentation to the general public.

I can see why people find frankie Boyle funny I spose.

[Insane_Homer]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

[Tichtheid]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

Well done, you’ve won.


The point I made of course stands either the information presented is relevant or t should not be presented. If you think that’s honest then you’re backward.

The modelling showed possible scenarios if there was no change in policy or behaviour* in order to explain a change in policy which will bring about a change in behaviour.

*again, this is written on the slide.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

Just don't put that on a slide else it'd then be wrong it seems

[Bimbowomxn]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

Well done, you’ve won.


The point I made of course stands either the information presented is relevant or t should not be presented. If you think that’s honest then you’re backward.

The modelling showed possible scenarios if there was no change in policy or behaviour* in order to explain a change in policy which will bring about a change in behaviour.

*again, this is written on the slide.

They’re scare stories. This is back to 500,000 dead Ferguson model which is discredited.

Anyway I’m more than comfortable with my premise that their presentation to the public last night was deeply worrying and dishonest.

You don’t. Good for you.

[Bimbowomxn]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

Just don't put that on a slide else it'd then be wrong it seems

It would certainly shows how ludicrous the scenario of this becoming 56,000 deaths a week by Xmas.

Good news though is reported “cases” and deaths falling.

* of course we don’t know how many actually dies last week, more that the deaths were reported.

[frodder]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

How does that compare to last Sunday

[Un Pilier]

The most telling slide to me was the one showing how close we are to critical capacity in hospitals and how quickly we will reach the need for profound measures in some regions. We carry very little spare capacity in the UK compared to Germany, for example, and several other European countries. This to me is the single most compelling reasons for escalating containment measures. Obviously, if we lost the ability to treat the seriously ill (COVID and non- COVID) then deaths would rise sharply.

We have yet to see the true health costs of the “first wave” and the current situation appears even more difficult. Just comparing death rates is overly simplistic - so much has changed. With regret, I accept the need for these current measures. Indeed, I think they have been delayed too long.

[Slick]

You said “No caveat about academic modelling was made“

Yet exactly that is written on the slide, that those curves were the representations of several academic models.

Haven’t you got some lies about your hospital to peddle. ?

Bimbo the huffy teenager is back

[Insane_Homer]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

How does that compare to last Sunday

151

[Bimbowomxn]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

How does that compare to last Sunday

151

Doubling every 7 days .....

[Bimbowomxn]

The most telling slide to me was the one showing how close we are to critical capacity in hospitals and how quickly we will reach the need for profound measures in some regions. We carry very little spare capacity in the UK compared to Germany, for example, and several other European countries. This to me is the single most compelling reasons for escalating containment measures. Obviously, if we lost the ability to treat the seriously ill (COVID and non- COVID) then deaths would rise sharply.

We have yet to see the true health costs of the “first wave” and the current situation appears even more difficult. Just comparing death rates is overly simplistic - so much has changed. With regret, I accept the need for these current measures. Indeed, I think they have been delayed too long.

The most telling slide was the one where the critical care capacity was almost identical to the previous 5 years for this week.

And even if the premise is correct (it isn’t ) why aren’t the nightingales open.?

[frodder]

1st November 2020
Cases: 23,254
Deaths: 162

1,821 deaths this week, up from 1,250 last week.

How does that compare to last Sunday

151

Bollocks, this virus can now offically do one

[Tichtheid]

Manchester’s Nightingale hospital reopens to non-covid patients

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester is open and ready to admit patients from across the north west of England. But, in a surprising twist, it is only admitting patients who do not have covid-19.

The facility, based at the Manchester Central Convention Complex (formerly known as G-MEX), is the first of the Nightingale hospitals to reopen to help take pressure off local hospitals. Sunderland and Harrogate are expected to be next, and all the others are on standby.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4224

[Tichtheid]

Well done, you’ve won.


The point I made of course stands either the information presented is relevant or t should not be presented. If you think that’s honest then you’re backward.

The modelling showed possible scenarios if there was no change in policy or behaviour* in order to explain a change in policy which will bring about a change in behaviour.

*again, this is written on the slide.

They’re scare stories. This is back to 500,000 dead Ferguson model which is discredited.

Anyway I’m more than comfortable with my premise that their presentation to the public last night was deeply worrying and dishonest.

You don’t. Good for you.

Your contentions were all just plain wrong.

Has Neil Ferguson’s model been discredited? The most recent article I can find on it is one from Nature which talks about his modelling numbers being recreated by a third party.

[Bimbowomxn]

Manchester’s Nightingale hospital reopens to non-covid patients

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester is open and ready to admit patients from across the north west of England. But, in a surprising twist, it is only admitting patients who do not have covid-19.

The facility, based at the Manchester Central Convention Complex (formerly known as G-MEX), is the first of the Nightingale hospitals to reopen to help take pressure off local hospitals. Sunderland and Harrogate are expected to be next, and all the others are on standby.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4224

It takes some kind of special to make the nightingales overspill for non covids.

[Bimbowomxn]

Has Neil Ferguson’s model been discredited? The most recent article I can find on it is one from Nature which talks about his modelling numbers being recreated by a third party.

He estimated 500,000 deaths. He was wrong by a factor of 10, that’s actually about normal for his models though.

[Un Pilier]

The most telling slide to me was the one showing how close we are to critical capacity in hospitals and how quickly we will reach the need for profound measures in some regions. We carry very little spare capacity in the UK compared to Germany, for example, and several other European countries. This to me is the single most compelling reasons for escalating containment measures. Obviously, if we lost the ability to treat the seriously ill (COVID and non- COVID) then deaths would rise sharply.

We have yet to see the true health costs of the “first wave” and the current situation appears even more difficult. Just comparing death rates is overly simplistic - so much has changed. With regret, I accept the need for these current measures. Indeed, I think they have been delayed too long.

The most telling slide was the one where the critical care capacity was almost identical to the previous 5 years for this week.

And even if the premise is correct (it isn’t ) why aren’t the nightingales open.?

The slide I’m talking about illustrated Nightingale capacity, the subsequent effects of cancellation of other care and maximum measures. Have a proper look.

[Bimbowomxn]

The most telling slide to me was the one showing how close we are to critical capacity in hospitals and how quickly we will reach the need for profound measures in some regions. We carry very little spare capacity in the UK compared to Germany, for example, and several other European countries. This to me is the single most compelling reasons for escalating containment measures. Obviously, if we lost the ability to treat the seriously ill (COVID and non- COVID) then deaths would rise sharply.

We have yet to see the true health costs of the “first wave” and the current situation appears even more difficult. Just comparing death rates is overly simplistic - so much has changed. With regret, I accept the need for these current measures. Indeed, I think they have been delayed too long.

The most telling slide was the one where the critical care capacity was almost identical to the previous 5 years for this week.

And even if the premise is correct (it isn’t ) why aren’t the nightingales open.?

The slide I’m talking about illustrated Nightingale capacity, the subsequent effects of cancellation of other care and maximum measures. Have a proper look.

Was it another “scenario” ?

Currently care beds are at 82%.....

Last five years have all been above 80% for the week in question.

[Tichtheid]

Manchester’s Nightingale hospital reopens to non-covid patients

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester is open and ready to admit patients from across the north west of England. But, in a surprising twist, it is only admitting patients who do not have covid-19.

The facility, based at the Manchester Central Convention Complex (formerly known as G-MEX), is the first of the Nightingale hospitals to reopen to help take pressure off local hospitals. Sunderland and Harrogate are expected to be next, and all the others are on standby.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4224

It takes some kind of special to make the nightingales overspill for non covids.

You’re wrong again

The facility has 750 beds, but unlike the first Nightingale hospital, which opened in London, it was never designed to take patients with covid-19 requiring critical care. During the first wave, all patients in the north west who needed to be on a ventilator were treated in existing hospitals.

[Tichtheid]

Has Neil Ferguson’s model been discredited? The most recent article I can find on it is one from Nature which talks about his modelling numbers being recreated by a third party.

He estimated 500,000 deaths. He was wrong by a factor of 10, that’s actually about normal for his models though.

Wrong again, the models supposed no interventions