NPR

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:52 pm**

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:50 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:45 pm
Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:38 pm Manchester’s Nightingale hospital reopens to non-covid patients

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4224

It takes some kind of special to make the nightingales overspill for non covids.

You’re wrong again

The facility has 750 beds, but unlike the first Nightingale hospital, which opened in London, it was never designed to take patients with covid-19 requiring critical care. During the first wave, all patients in the north west who needed to be on a ventilator were treated in existing hospitals.

How many patients in the first wave were treated in the nightingale btw . London had a high point of 19 beds used.

Wrong about what ? Nightingales should be for covid so as to keep the virus away from main facilities...

Edit , found it.

a ventilator were treated in existing hospitals. Although Manchester admitted the most patients with covid-19 of all the Nightingales, at around 100

So just 650:spare beds first time round.

It’s all a game.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:54 pm**

You didn’t even bother reading the article did you?

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:58 pm**

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:54 pm You didn’t even bother reading the article did you?

I read very little you post. As I’ve posted I found out it was 100.....

Either way not Isolating the virus where possible confuses me.

No doubt everyone will now leap through hoops explaining why Manchester’s nightingale is brilliant.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:59 pm**

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:51 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:47 pm
Has Neil Ferguson’s model been discredited? The most recent article I can find on it is one from Nature which talks about his modelling numbers being recreated by a third party.

He estimated 500,000 deaths. He was wrong by a factor of 10, that’s actually about normal for his models though.
Wrong again, the models supposed no interventions

And 250,000 with the measures we took. Thanks for opening that up.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:29 pm**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:45 pm
Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:38 pm Manchester’s Nightingale hospital reopens to non-covid patients

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester is open and ready to admit patients from across the north west of England. But, in a surprising twist, it is only admitting patients who do not have covid-19.

The facility, based at the Manchester Central Convention Complex (formerly known as G-MEX), is the first of the Nightingale hospitals to reopen to help take pressure off local hospitals. Sunderland and Harrogate are expected to be next, and all the others are on standby.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4224

It takes some kind of special to make the nightingales overspill for non covids.

not sure I agree, use the nightingales to treat all the stuff stopping non covid admissions has left undone

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:49 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:47 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:26 pm

The most telling slide was the one where the critical care capacity was almost identical to the previous 5 years for this week.

And even if the premise is correct (it isn’t ) why aren’t the nightingales open.?
The slide I’m talking about illustrated Nightingale capacity, the subsequent effects of cancellation of other care and maximum measures. Have a proper look.

Was it another “scenario” ?

Currently care beds are at 82%.....

Last five years have all been above 80% for the week in question.

NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:44 pm**

An Edinburgh University analysis of Imperial's Report 9 COVID-19 modelling has confirmed the group's key projections from March.

The paper in the BMJ replicated the Imperial analysis, which was published in March 2020 ahead of the UK’s lockdown.

This provides further independent confirmation that Imperial’s modelling was robust, reproducible and sound in its conclusions
COVID-19 Response Team
To do so, the researchers carried out an independent calculation using the code made available by Professor Neil Ferguson and team.

The researchers find that this code, available online as the CovidSim model, produced good forecasts, including the projection that prompt interventions were highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit beds.

In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the United Kingdom would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200,000, the Edinburgh research team finds.

Imperial College’s Report 9, which was one of several pieces of modelling to inform the UK government ahead of lockdown measures in March, has been subject to intense scrutiny, and has held up to expert analysis.

A recent Cambridge-led Codecheck into Report 9 confirmed the reproducibility and quality of its underlying code, which is publicly available as part of Imperial’s CovidSim.

A spokesperson for Imperial’s COVID-19 Response Team said: “This provides further independent confirmation that Imperial’s modelling in March was robust, reproducible and sound in its conclusions. We welcome this independent analysis of Report 9 as we continue to advance our understanding of the early epidemic.”

In a commentary, also for the BMJ, the Edinburgh study's author Professor Graeme Ackland said: "Scientific predictions are often published to great fanfare, with retrospective analysis seldom attracting as much attention. Report 9 appeared in March, we completed our study in June, and a lot has happened since. Infections went down steadily during lockdown, as predicted, and at the time of writing are rising again, just as predicted. With hindsight, the Imperial model has proved remarkably accurate. It turned out that the experts really are expert."

There is a link to the Edinburgh work in the article https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/206213/ ... ojections/

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm**

Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:49 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:47 pm

The slide I’m talking about illustrated Nightingale capacity, the subsequent effects of cancellation of other care and maximum measures. Have a proper look.

Was it another “scenario” ?

Currently care beds are at 82%.....

Last five years have all been above 80% for the week in question.
NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:51 pm**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:49 pm

Was it another “scenario” ?

Currently care beds are at 82%.....

Last five years have all been above 80% for the week in question.
NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.

You’re like a fucking medical Nostradamus!

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:59 pm**

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:51 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm

NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.
You’re like a fucking medical Nostradamus!

Sorry ? I’m posting about things in the past not the future. Not sure you understand Nostradamus.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:01 pm**

“I called that! And that. And the other thing”

Toolbag.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:03 pm**

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:01 pm “I called that! And that. And the other thing”

Toolbag.

I was correct about a reference to something being a “scenario “ that was in the present,

What’s the past.

What’s the future.

Really simple concepts.

Tool bag.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:20 pm**

Steve wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:19 pm
SaintK wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:15 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:26 am

But we believe the science right.
Ah yes, Allison Pearson, the voice of reason and accuracy. Makes Glenda Slagg look like a Pulitzer prizewinner
Fantastic spoof on her Telegraph column by Craig Brown in the current edition of Private Eye
I have never heard of her? is there any truth to what she is saying ad hominem attacks on her character aside?

Pearson was listed in Spiked in 2007[13] as one of many journalists who had been duped by the anti-MMR campaign. This anti-MMR campaign has contributed to the significant rise in measles cases and complications including death that arise from the disease[14] in the UK and elsewhere.

Less than an hour after the first of the 22 March 2016 Belgian bombings, Pearson suggested that the attacks were a justification for the Brexit cause in the then-upcoming referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, writing on Twitter that "Brussels, de facto capital of the EU, is also the jihadist capital of Europe. And the Remainers dare to say we're safer in the EU!". The tweet was widely criticised as "ill-considered" and "shameless". [15][16][17]

Following the May 2017 Manchester Arena bombing, Pearson called for the introduction of internment.[18]

In December 2019, Pearson falsely claimed that a photo of a child lying on the floor of a hospital was staged[19] and that she had been given “detailed explanation” that the photo was staged. She also said that the photo was “100% faked”.[20] The trust that runs Leeds General Infirmary issued a statement which apologised to the family that only chairs were available in the treatment room the boy was in and no beds.[citation needed] The hospital’s chief medical officer also apologised.

She's a fucking idiot and nothing she says should be taken at face value.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:44 pm**

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:46 pm**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:49 pm

Was it another “scenario” ?

Currently care beds are at 82%.....

Last five years have all been above 80% for the week in question.
NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.

You are not even talking about the projections I refer to. I’m not going to play your stupid games.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:53 pm**

Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:46 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:41 pm

NHS Predictions based on current trends. By Region.

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.
You are not even talking about the projections I refer to. I’m not going to play your stupid games.

Oh, I’m not playing a game. Just pointing out that the beds issue is another “scenario “ not an actual reality.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:11 pm**

Bingham combines the role with her job as managing director of SV Health Investors, a private equity firm

Like Dido Harding, she is married to a Conservative MP: Treasury Minister Jesse Norman.

She also went to school with Rachel Johson

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:18 pm**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:53 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:46 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:45 pm

So I was correct. The NHS has a beds crisis this time of the year every year.
You are not even talking about the projections I refer to. I’m not going to play your stupid games.

Oh, I’m not playing a game. Just pointing out that the beds issue is another “scenario “ not an actual reality.

You are desperately trying to prove someone wrong by talking about something completely different. Really odd chap.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:27 pm**

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:18 pm
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:53 pm
Un Pilier wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:46 pm

You are not even talking about the projections I refer to. I’m not going to play your stupid games.

Oh, I’m not playing a game. Just pointing out that the beds issue is another “scenario “ not an actual reality.
You are desperately trying to prove someone wrong by talking about something completely different. Really odd chap.

I’m not “proving” anything, I’m pointing out that we’ve not run out of hospital beds and the point about them running out was a “scenario “

It’s neither completely different or “wrong”.

Really odd chap.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:54 pm**

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:44 pm

Pandemic crony capitalism >> conventional disaster capitalism, apparently

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm**

Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm**

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.

You cannot be serious

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:09 pm**

frodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm
Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.
You cannot be serious

Chief political correspondent of the Daily Telegraph

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:16 am**

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:09 pm
frodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm
Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.
You cannot be serious
Chief political correspondent of the Daily Telegraph

Brexit Party: UK must leave the EU behind because it is a sovereign country.

Reform Party: UK residents must leave lockdown behind because they are sovereign... hang on, I see where this is coming from.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:37 am**

frodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm
Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.
You cannot be serious

Just when you think things can’t get any worse, up pops this rancid little shitebag.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:30 am**

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:37 am
frodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm
Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.
You cannot be serious
Just when you think things can’t get any worse, up pops this rancid little shitebag.

That’s a bit harsh on Frodder.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 am**

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54773196

Covid: PM warns of virus deaths 'twice as bad' as spring

Covid-19 deaths could be twice as high over the winter as they were in the first wave of the pandemic, PM Boris Johnson is expected to warn MPs later.

In a Parliamentary statement he will say there is "no alternative" as he seeks to win support for the planned four-week lockdown across England.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:43 am**

sefton wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:30 am
ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:37 am
frodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:05 pm

You cannot be serious
Just when you think things can’t get any worse, up pops this rancid little shitebag.
That’s a bit harsh on Frodder.

Only a bit

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:50 am**

frodder wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:43 am
sefton wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:30 am
ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:37 am
Just when you think things can’t get any worse, up pops this rancid little shitebag.
That’s a bit harsh on Frodder.
Only a bit

#CancelFrodder

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:58 am**

Professor lockdown caught out as a massive bluffer.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 am**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:58 am

Professor lockdown caught out as a massive bluffer.

Incredible. LBC listeners voting for an astronomically larger NHS. How the world turns.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am**

Muttonbird wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 am
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:58 am

Professor lockdown caught out as a massive bluffer.
Incredible. LBC listeners voting for an astronomically larger NHS. How the world turns.

What the fuck would you know about LBC listeners? And what vote ?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:30 am**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Muttonbird wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 am
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:58 am

Professor lockdown caught out as a massive bluffer.
Incredible. LBC listeners voting for an astronomically larger NHS. How the world turns.

What the fuck would you know about LBC listeners? And what vote ?

LBC seems like a right wing mouthpiece. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:31 am**

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Muttonbird wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 am
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:58 am

Professor lockdown caught out as a massive bluffer.
Incredible. LBC listeners voting for an astronomically larger NHS. How the world turns.

What the fuck would you know about LBC listeners? And what vote ?

It’s an early start for angry and aggressive Bimbo today.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:49 am**

Muttonbird wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:30 am
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Muttonbird wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:23 am Incredible. LBC listeners voting for an astronomically larger NHS. How the world turns.

What the fuck would you know about LBC listeners? And what vote ?
LBC seems like a right wing mouthpiece. Correct me if I'm wrong.

“Seems like” , go on how have you formed that opinion ?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:15 am**

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:04 pm Telegraph tomorrow reporting that the Brexit Party is to relaunch as an anti lockdown party.

Cue Farage getting hours of unwarranted BBC airtime again.

So Nige is going to reimagine the Brexshit party on a manifesto of anti lockdown, is he expecting another election any time soon, or is he expecting us still to be doing lockdowns in 3-4 years time?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:34 am**

Makes sense.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:43 am**

I find the 'lockdown sceptics' pretty tedious.

I have no doubt at all that if there wasn't an overwhelming need for it then no government (and particularly this one) would be doing it.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:46 am**

A naïve attempt to get the antilock down brigade to get onboard and as per current form backfiring?

4,000 a day does seem a OTT doesn't it? Just how bad of a cockup would it have to be to get to that stage. It would require a wilful disregard for any sort of attempts to limit the spread (worst worst case scenario) and well beyond what even these Torys are capable of.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:05 pm**

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:43 am I find the 'lockdown sceptics' pretty tedious.

I have no doubt at all that if there wasn't an overwhelming need for it then no government (and particularly this one) would be doing it.

They’re political cowardice.

Think how you’d rather 2.4 billion a day was spent.

NPR

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