NPR

Trying to organise a piss-up in a brewery........Boris style

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:22 pm

Too Expensive

I smell shite ... and not just from the rivers and beaches!

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:16 pm Quite funny from Jamie Powell at FT Alphaville (free and very good) on the metaphor of a household budget.


"Even as a simple metaphor, it’s also just plain wrong.

Households regularly borrow far in excess of their income. In the UK for instance, if you’re a good credit, you can get a mortgage at 4-4.5 times your salary. In household budget metaphor land, that would be a debt-to-GDP ratio of 400 to 450 per cent. While the current government likes to talk up the benefits of tightening its own belt, it is only too eager to encourage citizens to get on the housing ladder.

The current debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK? 106 per cent. Time to lever up."

Poor analogy. Mortgages get paid off not permanently added to in an ever increasing fashion.

shaggy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 5:54 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:16 pm Quite funny from Jamie Powell at FT Alphaville (free and very good) on the metaphor of a household budget.


"Even as a simple metaphor, it’s also just plain wrong.

Households regularly borrow far in excess of their income. In the UK for instance, if you’re a good credit, you can get a mortgage at 4-4.5 times your salary. In household budget metaphor land, that would be a debt-to-GDP ratio of 400 to 450 per cent. While the current government likes to talk up the benefits of tightening its own belt, it is only too eager to encourage citizens to get on the housing ladder.

The current debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK? 106 per cent. Time to lever up."

Poor analogy. Mortgages get paid off not permanently added to in an ever increasing fashion.

Theoretically, but you can do all sorts with mortgages. Also in the UK budget as a house theory the UK govt debt should/will be paid off not permanently added to as well.

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:53 pm Trying to organise a piss-up in a brewery........Boris style

Those kegs aren't large enough to be included in his drop in beer duty.

Public sector borrowing gets paid off too, just like mortgages. I don't pretend to understand all the gilts and bonds etc and how they all work, but they do get paid off over a period of time.
One of the main differences between household budgets and a country like the UK is that if the UK were a house the householders could print their own money to make the mortgage payments.

That was deliberately simplified.

OBR just said that the damage done by Brexit to the economy is twice as bad as done by the pandemic.


Twice as bad as the pandemic.

We inflicted twice as much damage *economically, on ourselves as the pandemic did.


Fucking'ell.

We are a hopeless fucking nation.

Thank gawd we have generations of young people willing (ok..."forced") to stick around and pay for it.

Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:20 am OBR just said that the damage done by Brexit to the economy is twice as bad as done by the pandemic.


Twice as bad as the oandemic.

We inflicted twice as much damage *economically, on ourselves as the pandemic did.


Fucking'ell.

We are a hopeless fucking nation.

No, we are a nation led by hopeless lying corrupt cunts is a more accurate description.

ASMO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:22 am

Line6 HXFX wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:20 am OBR just said that the damage done by Brexit to the economy is twice as bad as done by the pandemic.


Twice as bad as the oandemic.

We inflicted twice as much damage *economically, on ourselves as the pandemic did.


Fucking'ell.

We are a hopeless fucking nation.

No, we are a nation led by hopeless lying corrupt cunts is a more accurate description.

Far be it from me to agree with refry, but the country is part of the problem. The cunts at the top don't get there by accident. there's a solid 35 - 40% of voters who seem willing to cast their ballot that way come what may while everyone voting alternatively is split across 3 or 4 options. The main opposition is just as interested in fighting itself as the government. Our desperately needed attempt to get a fairer and more representative form of voting failed because people either didn't give a shit or actively didn't want to make voting and parliamentary representation more equitable.

Too many are willfully under-informed and apathetic.

We, collectively, don't do anything about the calculated cruelty and corruption of our politicians. We take the piss out of the French for their propensity to burn shit and riot, but how else do you make power listen? The government should be afraid of the people when it does things like permit raw sewage to deluge our waterways, bung hundreds of millions of public funds to their mates and donors etc.

OBR says there is going to be a 4% decline in GDP, because of Brexit, forever.


Not this year or next, forever.

No predicted benefits from Brexit.
A 4% decline in GDP,

FOREVER.


What the fuck is the point though, of even talking about it.
It is not like the country will suddennly grow sympathy for people impacted by this.

4% forever.

So in 25 years we will have £0 GDP?

Ymx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:56 am 4% forever.

So in 25 years we will have £0 GDP?

I think the OBR mean 4% "long term"

Compound loss of 4% per year over 25 years would, by my calculation, leave 36% of current GDP*, though I don't think for a minute that will happen.

*it's been along time since I did sums like these, I might be doing it wrong, it's the decrease as a multiplier (0.96) raised to the power of the number of years (25), times the initial figure, in this case 100%

AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

I remember when Thatcher fucked up much of the country for generations, for a taxcut, and to make the pound more valuable for people I the city to gamble on the money markets.. ..creating generational economic blackspot after generational economic blackspot, and when complaining about Thatcher became clich'ed.
It was "Thatcher" the right would say, sarcastically.

Well people are now sneering yeah its "Brexit" like complaining about the economic effects of Brexit are already clich'ed and boring.


But again there is no point talking about it. The reactions by conservatives to conservative economic disaster are well rehearsed, they are extremely competent at wearing people down, mocking them, bullying them, manly because they couldn't give a fuck about the country and most of the people in it.
They are in it for the cash and themselves and have self serving contempt for everyone else.
No point even debating it, it is like debating or trying to reason with a zombie whilst he is eating your sister.

I mean brexit was clearly a decision to favour sovereignty over the economy so it sounds right but how on earth do you prove growth has increased by 4% less than in a counterfactual some years down the line? Its hardly a compelling argument.

Long range predictions are difficult but interestingly the UK is one of the major economies thats predicted to maintain its place in the global rankinga in 20 years.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

You're a Scottish Nationalist so whilst you may well not understand or want Brexit you're surely familiar with the ideas of some things being more important than short term economic growth, that decisions should be taken closer to home, that short term pain can be worth it and that being in charge of your own destiny is a good in of itself.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:45 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

You're a Scottish Nationalist so whilst you may well not understand or want Brexit you're surely familiar with the ideas of some things being more important than short term economic growth, that decisions should be taken closer to home, that short term pain can be worth it and that being in charge of your own destiny is a good in of itself.

"Scottish Nationalist" seems reductive, I favour people in Scotland voting for a government that reflects the will of the voters and being able to implement policies they choose and to go in the direction the voters want.
I also would favour Scotland joining the EU, none of the "Sovereignty" arguments put forward by the loons stand up to scrutiny - are we saying France is not an independent country? Germany? Spain? Italy?

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:45 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

You're a Scottish Nationalist so whilst you may well not understand or want Brexit you're surely familiar with the ideas of some things being more important than short term economic growth, that decisions should be taken closer to home, that short term pain can be worth it and that being in charge of your own destiny is a good in of itself.

This

Splitting up the UK will have fare fare more drastic negative economic/social/dillomatic consequences than Brexit.

Its strange someone who think this act of secession will be worth it anyway because of the sovereignty is unable to parse why someone might have supported leaving the EU for the same reasons.

Take your Brexshit arguments to the Brexshit thread please.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:51 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:45 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

You're a Scottish Nationalist so whilst you may well not understand or want Brexit you're surely familiar with the ideas of some things being more important than short term economic growth, that decisions should be taken closer to home, that short term pain can be worth it and that being in charge of your own destiny is a good in of itself.

"Scottish Nationalist" seems reductive, I favour people in Scotland voting for a government that reflects the will of the voters and being able to implement policies they choose and to go in the direction the voters want.
I also would favour Scotland joining the EU, none of the "Sovereignty" arguments put forward by the loons stand up to scrutiny - are we saying France is not an independent country? Germany? Spain? Italy?

Your first sentence with a couple of words changed could easily be written in support of Brexit.

I voted Remain.

And unless your an admin you cant control what people talk about even in a thread you started. (And not discussing Brexit in a UK politics thread is just odd).

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:57 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:51 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:45 am

You're a Scottish Nationalist so whilst you may well not understand or want Brexit you're surely familiar with the ideas of some things being more important than short term economic growth, that decisions should be taken closer to home, that short term pain can be worth it and that being in charge of your own destiny is a good in of itself.

"Scottish Nationalist" seems reductive, I favour people in Scotland voting for a government that reflects the will of the voters and being able to implement policies they choose and to go in the direction the voters want.
I also would favour Scotland joining the EU, none of the "Sovereignty" arguments put forward by the loons stand up to scrutiny - are we saying France is not an independent country? Germany? Spain? Italy?

Your first sentence with a couple of words changed could easily be written in support of Brexit.

A hard brexit government reflects the will of the voters? A tiny swing went in favour of a Brexit that was billed as something completely different to what we have now.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:07 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:57 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:51 am


"Scottish Nationalist" seems reductive, I favour people in Scotland voting for a government that reflects the will of the voters and being able to implement policies they choose and to go in the direction the voters want.
I also would favour Scotland joining the EU, none of the "Sovereignty" arguments put forward by the loons stand up to scrutiny - are we saying France is not an independent country? Germany? Spain? Italy?

Your first sentence with a couple of words changed could easily be written in support of Brexit.

A hard brexit government reflects the will of the voters? A tiny swing went in favour of a Brexit that was billed as something completely different to what we have now.

That's in no way what I wrote - I said that what Ticht has written could easily have been written in 2016 as a reason to vote Leave.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:12 am

Ymx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:56 am 4% forever.

So in 25 years we will have £0 GDP?

I think the OBR mean 4% "long term"

Compound loss of 4% per year over 25 years would, by my calculation, leave 36% of current GDP*, though I don't think for a minute that will happen.

*it's been along time since I did sums like these, I might be doing it wrong, it's the decrease as a multiplier (0.96) raised to the power of the number of years (25), times the initial figure, in this case 100%

Ha ha. I was about to say down to 36% actually for compounding. But didn’t want to confuse the absurd claim. Or 64% down.

Yes, your maths is correct! 0.96 power 25

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... -thinktank

Boris Johnson’s government has set a course for a “high-tax, big-state economy” with a budget that will raise the UK’s tax bill by £3,000 a household by 2027, according to analysis by an independent thinktank.

But at least a pint is £0.03 cheaper - HAZAR!!!

Happyhooker wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:10 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:53 pm Trying to organise a piss-up in a brewery........Boris style

Those kegs aren't large enough to be included in his drop in beer duty.

So they've fucked over just about every small, independent brewery who kegs their beers on 30L barrels

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:10 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:07 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:57 am

Your first sentence with a couple of words changed could easily be written in support of Brexit.

A hard brexit government reflects the will of the voters? A tiny swing went in favour of a Brexit that was billed as something completely different to what we have now.

That's in no way what I wrote - I said that what Ticht has written could easily have been written in 2016 as a reason to vote Leave.

Except of course that we always had a government that was able to implement policies they chose. Yeah, sure, the argument could've been made, but it would've been a deeply disingenuous one (so totally in keeping with the Leave campaign)

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

If only Bimbo was here to expound all of the Brexit dividends....oh thats right, Zapp banned the cunt...

Isn’t Zapp your mod alter ego Asmo?

Kind of like fight club, I always pictured it as.

We need to stop talking about Brexit now. As Rishi Sunak the man in charge of the money said today it was an event that happened 5 years ago.

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:25 am AIUI they're talking about a 4% decline in the growth trend over that period, so basically unprovable either way.

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

Ah yes, the blue passports made in the EU, excellent.

incidentally, wot JM2K6 wrote, the UK gov here was always able to implement its own policies.

SaintK wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:51 pm

Happyhooker wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:10 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:53 pm Trying to organise a piss-up in a brewery........Boris style

Those kegs aren't large enough to be included in his drop in beer duty.

So they've fucked over just about every small, independent brewery who kegs their beers on 30L barrels

Noted on Twitter yesterday by many, but I doubt small breweries are noted donors so fuck them.

ASMO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:49 pm

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

If only Bimbo was here to expound all of the Brexit dividends....oh thats right, Zapp banned the cunt...

Do NOT look in the mirror and repeat that name twice more…..

PCPhil wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:22 pm

ASMO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:49 pm

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Blue passports. :thumbup:

If only Bimbo was here to expound all of the Brexit dividends....oh thats right, Zapp banned the cunt...

Do NOT look in the mirror and repeat that name twice more…..

Bimblejuice, Bimblejuice, Bimbl….

ASMO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:49 pm

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

If only Bimbo was here to expound all of the Brexit dividends....oh thats right, Zapp banned the cunt...

He's by no means the worst on this subject. Message#etc is the most rabid by far!!!

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:58 pm

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:28 am

but it's not exactly sunlit uplands.

I'm struggling to see one benefit of Brexit.

Blue passports.

Ah yes, the blue passports made in the EU, excellent.

incidentally, wot JM2K6 wrote, the UK gov here was always able to implement its own policies.

My blue passport didn't work in the automated gates at Heathrow last week. I would love to think it's a temporary problem.

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:01 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:58 pm

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:18 pm

Blue passports.

Ah yes, the blue passports made in the EU, excellent.

incidentally, wot JM2K6 wrote, the UK gov here was always able to implement its own policies.

My blue passport didn't work in the automated gates at Heathrow last week. I would love to think it's a temporary problem.

I haven't tried mine out yet. Only got it a couple of weeks ago.

shaggy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 5:54 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:16 pm Quite funny from Jamie Powell at FT Alphaville (free and very good) on the metaphor of a household budget.


"Even as a simple metaphor, it’s also just plain wrong.

Households regularly borrow far in excess of their income. In the UK for instance, if you’re a good credit, you can get a mortgage at 4-4.5 times your salary. In household budget metaphor land, that would be a debt-to-GDP ratio of 400 to 450 per cent. While the current government likes to talk up the benefits of tightening its own belt, it is only too eager to encourage citizens to get on the housing ladder.

The current debt-to-GDP ratio in the UK? 106 per cent. Time to lever up."

Poor analogy. Mortgages get paid off not permanently added to in an ever increasing fashion.

Which proves the point that comparing household finances to government finances is dumb.