What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

They were meant to have 10,000 tanks ready to go. Why should we think the corruption in the army supply and maintenance chains isn’t also in the air force’s?

That was never true. The reason it was in the public consciousness was that journalists, and people who should know better, just uncritically parroted the number of tanks Russia claimed it had in storage since the 90s. It didn't take into account the age or condition of said tanks, which include everything from T-90s to IS-3s, or corruption, cannibalisation, or just actual officially sanctioned sale to third parties.

[Flockwitt]

But given the shambles around their other equipment, what makes anyone think that all those planes are working and that they have enough pilots to fly them?

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

They were meant to have 10,000 tanks ready to go. Why should we think the corruption in the army supply and maintenance chains isn’t also in the air force’s?

Nevertheless the disparity between what Ukraine will get and just how much Russia has is going to be an order of magnitude with nothing like any sort of technology gap that will make a significant difference. There'll be no air superiority and still enormous risk in ground attack of any sort. SEAD operations are all well and good but not what is going to win the war for Ukraine at this point. Just where is the value? As a fleet in port kind of deterrence vs. Russia's airborne threat? That's fine, but they won't arrive in time to make any difference on this counter-offensive where the war is likely to be won or lost on the ground. Regardless Russia has yet to find a way to make their air superiority count in any case, so again, where is the value? If Russia with its already overwhelming air advantage has not been able to leverage this just what are the Ukrainians going to do that justifies the relative expense?

[Hellraiser]

[Biffer]

They've got over 300 MIGs and over 300 Sus of various types. It's not even in the discussion tbf. The Russians have been very conservative in their use of their aircraft in Ukraine, for much the same reason the F-16s won't be particularly effective $/bang, they are too easily brought down by modern SAMs. The whole reason the US airforce went to the Raptors was because the vulnerability of non-stealth enhanced aircraft.

They were meant to have 10,000 tanks ready to go. Why should we think the corruption in the army supply and maintenance chains isn’t also in the air force’s?

Nevertheless the disparity between what Ukraine will get and just how much Russia has is going to be an order of magnitude with nothing like any sort of technology gap that will make a significant difference. There'll be no air superiority and still enormous risk in ground attack of any sort. SEAD operations are all well and good but not what is going to win the war for Ukraine at this point. Just where is the value? As a fleet in port kind of deterrence vs. Russia's airborne threat? That's fine, but they won't arrive in time to make any difference on this counter-offensive where the war is likely to be won or lost on the ground. Regardless Russia has yet to find a way to make their air superiority count in any case, so again, where is the value? If Russia with its already overwhelming air advantage has not been able to leverage this just what are the Ukrainians going to do that justifies the relative expense?

So, if the SAMs are the reason they don’t have air superiority now, and the Ukrainians have been stocking up on them, what’s going to change to give Russia air superiority in the future?

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

They were meant to have 10,000 tanks ready to go. Why should we think the corruption in the army supply and maintenance chains isn’t also in the air force’s?

Nevertheless the disparity between what Ukraine will get and just how much Russia has is going to be an order of magnitude with nothing like any sort of technology gap that will make a significant difference. There'll be no air superiority and still enormous risk in ground attack of any sort. SEAD operations are all well and good but not what is going to win the war for Ukraine at this point. Just where is the value? As a fleet in port kind of deterrence vs. Russia's airborne threat? That's fine, but they won't arrive in time to make any difference on this counter-offensive where the war is likely to be won or lost on the ground. Regardless Russia has yet to find a way to make their air superiority count in any case, so again, where is the value? If Russia with its already overwhelming air advantage has not been able to leverage this just what are the Ukrainians going to do that justifies the relative expense?

So, if the SAMs are the reason they don’t have air superiority now, and the Ukrainians have been stocking up on them, what’s going to change to give Russia air superiority in the future?

? I'm not sure I follow your question Biffer. The point I made above was that the Russian's have always had the ability to claim air superiority, yet even at the start of the war when Ukraine was at sixes and sevens with only hand me down Soviet SAM gear it didn't give the Russians any particular battle field edge that mattered - they weren't prepared to risk the airframes in the kind of war that evolved. Besides that Russians are poor at ground to air and have no SEAD capability at all, they were burned even in their Georgia excursion, SAMs are simply too effective in the modern combat zone. Conversely the same problems will apply to the F-16s. It is an older generation fighter that is going to be vulnerable to the weapons the Russians have plenty of. So what's the point of the resource burn with the F-16s? Some home protection? I take the points made in the twitter interview above for instance. Nice to have of course but that isn't going to win anything in the relative time frames involved. And there're questions about taking on the Russian air force in Russia with long range air to air missiles with Western gear.

[fishfoodie]

A great interview, where someone who has been at the sharp end clearly states why we are where we are !



Europe & the US failed to keep the edge of the Spear sharp, & dithered, & the Enemy knew they hadn't the conviction to use the spear anyway.

[Flockwitt]

So Wagner is gone gone? Denys and other channels seem confident enough but I'd like to get further confirmation.

[Hellraiser]

Western intelligence assesses that the Russian air force is down to about 300 combat pilots and they don't have enough safely functioning aircraft for all of them.

[Flockwitt]

Western intelligence assesses that the Russian air force is down to about 300 combat pilots and they don't have enough safely functioning aircraft for all of them.

Do you have a link for that? Oryx only lists 74 combat aircraft shot down and there isn't going to be any particularly large variance from that, aircraft kills are well publicized.

[Flockwitt]

Hopefully not RR. Two days old, the latest drop from the Ukraine National Guard doing a hromadske type production. They amp it up a bit, and are appealing to the local audience, but putting the link in for reference. The original title isn't in English so the channel may be missed, though the dubbing is fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2U2qKDbeo0

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Meanwhile, in Syria this time another RU colonel gone. One fewer arsehole they could redeploy to Ukraine at least if they have to kick out more incompetents

[Hellraiser]

Western intelligence assesses that the Russian air force is down to about 300 combat pilots and they don't have enough safely functioning aircraft for all of them.

Do you have a link for that? Oryx only lists 74 combat aircraft shot down and there isn't going to be any particularly large variance from that, aircraft kills are well publicized.

Was mentioned in a live stream on Twitter Spaces. When the podcast comes out I'll try and find it.

[petej]

Nevertheless the disparity between what Ukraine will get and just how much Russia has is going to be an order of magnitude with nothing like any sort of technology gap that will make a significant difference. There'll be no air superiority and still enormous risk in ground attack of any sort. SEAD operations are all well and good but not what is going to win the war for Ukraine at this point. Just where is the value? As a fleet in port kind of deterrence vs. Russia's airborne threat? That's fine, but they won't arrive in time to make any difference on this counter-offensive where the war is likely to be won or lost on the ground. Regardless Russia has yet to find a way to make their air superiority count in any case, so again, where is the value? If Russia with its already overwhelming air advantage has not been able to leverage this just what are the Ukrainians going to do that justifies the relative expense?

So, if the SAMs are the reason they don’t have air superiority now, and the Ukrainians have been stocking up on them, what’s going to change to give Russia air superiority in the future?

? I'm not sure I follow your question Biffer. The point I made above was that the Russian's have always had the ability to claim air superiority, yet even at the start of the war when Ukraine was at sixes and sevens with only hand me down Soviet SAM gear it didn't give the Russians any particular battle field edge that mattered - they weren't prepared to risk the airframes in the kind of war that evolved. Besides that Russians are poor at ground to air and have no SEAD capability at all, they were burned even in their Georgia excursion, SAMs are simply too effective in the modern combat zone. Conversely the same problems will apply to the F-16s. It is an older generation fighter that is going to be vulnerable to the weapons the Russians have plenty of. So what's the point of the resource burn with the F-16s? Some home protection? I take the points made in the twitter interview above for instance. Nice to have of course but that isn't going to win anything in the relative time frames involved. And there're questions about taking on the Russian air force in Russia with long range air to air missiles with Western gear.

I would dispute that.

The russian airframes don't last as long, the russian engines don't last as long and the performance is likely still over stated. The russian training is likely to be poor. I expect the F16 is a superior airframe, a superior engine, superior information/data link and superior weapons. The F16s a platform that has some many users that it picks up every upgrade (weapons and radar etc..) along the way.

I would bet a fair amount that the F16s will have an impact and Ukrainians will use them differently to how USA or other NATO partners would.

[Plim]

Meanwhile, in Syria this time another RU colonel gone. One fewer arsehole they could redeploy to Ukraine at least if they have to kick out more incompetents

I know this subject was covered many pages back, but I still marvel at how absolutely shit Russian uniforms are.

This bloke could be appearing on a screen on the Searcher demanding the handing over of Hawk and Wilma Deering.

No sense of dignified military presentation. It’s like those OTT army parades they like so much in banana republics, all braid and gaudy colours.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

So, if the SAMs are the reason they don’t have air superiority now, and the Ukrainians have been stocking up on them, what’s going to change to give Russia air superiority in the future?

? I'm not sure I follow your question Biffer. The point I made above was that the Russian's have always had the ability to claim air superiority, yet even at the start of the war when Ukraine was at sixes and sevens with only hand me down Soviet SAM gear it didn't give the Russians any particular battle field edge that mattered - they weren't prepared to risk the airframes in the kind of war that evolved. Besides that Russians are poor at ground to air and have no SEAD capability at all, they were burned even in their Georgia excursion, SAMs are simply too effective in the modern combat zone. Conversely the same problems will apply to the F-16s. It is an older generation fighter that is going to be vulnerable to the weapons the Russians have plenty of. So what's the point of the resource burn with the F-16s? Some home protection? I take the points made in the twitter interview above for instance. Nice to have of course but that isn't going to win anything in the relative time frames involved. And there're questions about taking on the Russian air force in Russia with long range air to air missiles with Western gear.

I would dispute that.

The russian airframes don't last as long, the russian engines don't last as long and the performance is likely still over stated. The russian training is likely to be poor. I expect the F16 is a superior airframe, a superior engine, superior information/data link and superior weapons. The F16s a platform that has some many users that it picks up every upgrade (weapons and radar etc..) along the way.

I would bet a fair amount that the F16s will have an impact and Ukrainians will use them differently to how USA or other NATO partners would.

Well the quoted statement is perfectly true, heh. Vs. the Ukrainian air force the Russian air force has always been able to claim air superiority in terms of pure numbers... but not able to enforce it, which is what I'm saying.

I take the point you're making though. Don't entirely agree with it. Still that's another discussion.

[Niegs]

Meanwhile, in Syria this time another RU colonel gone. One fewer arsehole they could redeploy to Ukraine at least if they have to kick out more incompetents

I know this subject was covered many pages back, but I still marvel at how absolutely shit Russian uniforms are.

This bloke could be appearing on a screen on the Searcher demanding the handing over of Hawk and Wilma Deering.

No sense of dignified military presentation. It’s like those OTT army parades they like so much in banana republics, all braid and gaudy colours.

The colours are so weird. When I worked at a museum, we had a collection of East German stuff from the 70s or 80s. I wondered if these were seen as attractive, maybe even prestigious in how 'not bland' they were compared to average citizens' clothing at the time? Makes me think of 60s/70s decor with all the pastels. At least the drab WW2 era ones, harkening back to the revolution, still looked 'military'.



Modern officers look like Yank (wannabe) posh hotel concierges... just add 10 medals (I just read the Russians now limit the number, so aren't like NK or China) and huge shoulder boards.

[robmatic]

I don't think I'd fancy doing all that with real bullets flying around, to be honest.

[Flockwitt]

Western intelligence assesses that the Russian air force is down to about 300 combat pilots and they don't have enough safely functioning aircraft for all of them.

Do you have a link for that? Oryx only lists 74 combat aircraft shot down and there isn't going to be any particularly large variance from that, aircraft kills are well publicized.

Was mentioned in a live stream on Twitter Spaces. When the podcast comes out I'll try and find it.

Yeah, I'll be happy to believe half the Russian air force has maintenance issues, but the pilot numbers just don't stack up. To quote a famous British sitcom it's rather like somebody is reworking the figures from which the statistical base is created from. Reputable sources have Russian prewar airforce at something like 1000 combat aircraft, the Flight Almanac states there's roughly 370 MiG-29, -31 and -35 fighters as well as 350 Su-27, -30 and -35 fighters available now. The Russians haven't suddenly lost 500 pilots. Not only that, but there must be a perfectly viable pool of retired pilots for Russia to call upon. The idea that Russia is running out of pilots at this stage of a war when aircraft have been very conservatively utilized is somebody's propaganda nonsense.

[Hellraiser]

Zelensky has announced that the date has been set.

[Plim]

Meanwhile, in Syria this time another RU colonel gone. One fewer arsehole they could redeploy to Ukraine at least if they have to kick out more incompetents

I know this subject was covered many pages back, but I still marvel at how absolutely shit Russian uniforms are.

This bloke could be appearing on a screen on the Searcher demanding the handing over of Hawk and Wilma Deering.

No sense of dignified military presentation. It’s like those OTT army parades they like so much in banana republics, all braid and gaudy colours.

The colours are so weird. When I worked at a museum, we had a collection of East German stuff from the 70s or 80s. I wondered if these were seen as attractive, maybe even prestigious in how 'not bland' they were compared to average citizens' clothing at the time? Makes me think of 60s/70s decor with all the pastels. At least the drab WW2 era ones, harkening back to the revolution, still looked 'military'.



Modern officers look like Yank (wannabe) posh hotel concierges... just add 10 medals (I just read the Russians now limit the number, so aren't like NK or China) and huge shoulder boards.

[Flockwitt]

^ Time for an upgrade.

[fishfoodie]

Zelensky has announced that the date has been set.

Dawn on June the 6th ?

... just for consistency when dealing with fascists

[Hellraiser]

Zelensky has announced that the date has been set.

Dawn on June the 6th ?

... just for consistency when dealing with fascists

There has been some speculation that that could be the day but it's a little on the nose.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

I'm assuming there's a wee bit of doubt as to who launched these drones?

[tabascoboy]

I'm assuming there's a wee bit of doubt as to who launched these drones?

An adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied claims that Ukraine was responsible for the drone attacks in Moscow.

Mykhailo Podolyak was asked about the strikes while appearing on a breakfast television show.

“We have nothing to do with this,” he said, but added that Kyiv is "watching with pleasure and forecast an increasing number of attacks”.

He also joked that perhaps some Russian drones – fired at Ukraine – had decided to “come back”.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

The cheek of the Russians claiming terror attack on Moscow when they executed civilians in the street in Bucha.

[fishfoodie]

[tabascoboy]

There is a claim, and to be sure with nothing to substantiate it, that the drones used today were of Chinese manufacture and launched from within the larger Moscow area by RU Resistance.

One of the drones was shot down a 10-minute drive from Putin's residence, the other fell three kilometers from Novo-Ogarevo [elite].

Deputy Khinshtein claims that one of the drones was shot down over the village of Razdory near Moscow. Journalist F.Rustamova drew attention to the fact that this is a part of Rublyovka, where state dachas, personal homes of officials and businessmen are located. Putin's residence "Novo-Ogaryovo" is a 10-minute drive from the village.

“We Can Explain” writes that another drone crashed in the village of Ilyinskoye, which is even closer to Putin’s residence - just three kilometers away. Nearby is also the village of Znamenskoye, where the estate of Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko, the residence of Mikhail Mishustin and the house of Putin's former son-in-law Kirill Shamalov are located.

Here is what the TG channel "We can explain" writes:

“War has come to Rublevka. At the epicenter of the drone attack were the estates of Putin's elite. Federal TV almost doesn’t report on the attack.

On the air of federal TV channels, almost nothing is reported about the largest drone attack since the beginning of the war on the capital and the nearby area, - the journalists noted. "Russia-24" emphasizes that the buildings were slightly damaged, and all the drones were "suppressed". TV channels didn’t interrupt their broadcasts for special news programs, there is no "Urgent" sign on the air of "Russia-24" - as usually happens during extraordinary events.

Probably, this was a psychological attack, and on places inhabited by Putin's elite. In Moscow, these are prestigious south-western microdistricts. In the suburbs of Moscow there is the Rublev highway and its surroundings, where Putin's close friends live: oligarchs and officials.

One of the drones fell in the village of Ilyinskoe - just 3 kilometers from the residence of President Putin in Novo-Ogarevo.

In the village of Znamenskoye, there is an estate belonging to Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko. Next door is the residence of Prime Minister Mikhail Myshustin "Gorky-9" and the house of the president's ex-son-in-law Kirill Shamalov. The father of the governor of the Moscow region, senator Yury Vorobyev and defense minister Sergei Shoigu live nearby.

Near the village of Zhukovka in kp "Ilyinskoe Pole" stand opposite each other the mansions of Putin's closest friends, the brothers Arkady and Boris Rotenbergov. And next door is the house of Shoigu's lover Elena Shebunova. Sergei Kyryenko's house is in the village of "Landshaft". Igor Sechyn's house in Barvikha. Mikoyan's former dacha is owned by the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov.

In Arkhangelskoye the house of the head of the Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin, who the other day brought Putin a map of Europe with Ukraine absent there (later it turned out to be present).

The mistress of the head of VTB — TV presenter Nailya Asker-Zade, the deputy minister of defense Ruslan Tsalikov, the mother-in-law of the head of Rostech Sergey Chemezov — Lyudmila Rukavyshnikova live in Razdory.

The drone was headed to the village of Vlasikha - there is the central command post of the Strategic Missile Forces,” — the journalists wrote.

[inactionman]

There is a claim, and to be sure with nothing to substantiate it, that the drones used today were of Chinese manufacture and launched from within the larger Moscow area by RU Resistance.

One of the drones was shot down a 10-minute drive from Putin's residence, the other fell three kilometers from Novo-Ogarevo [elite].

Deputy Khinshtein claims that one of the drones was shot down over the village of Razdory near Moscow. Journalist F.Rustamova drew attention to the fact that this is a part of Rublyovka, where state dachas, personal homes of officials and businessmen are located. Putin's residence "Novo-Ogaryovo" is a 10-minute drive from the village.

“We Can Explain” writes that another drone crashed in the village of Ilyinskoye, which is even closer to Putin’s residence - just three kilometers away. Nearby is also the village of Znamenskoye, where the estate of Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko, the residence of Mikhail Mishustin and the house of Putin's former son-in-law Kirill Shamalov are located.

Here is what the TG channel "We can explain" writes:

“War has come to Rublevka. At the epicenter of the drone attack were the estates of Putin's elite. Federal TV almost doesn’t report on the attack.

On the air of federal TV channels, almost nothing is reported about the largest drone attack since the beginning of the war on the capital and the nearby area, - the journalists noted. "Russia-24" emphasizes that the buildings were slightly damaged, and all the drones were "suppressed". TV channels didn’t interrupt their broadcasts for special news programs, there is no "Urgent" sign on the air of "Russia-24" - as usually happens during extraordinary events.

Probably, this was a psychological attack, and on places inhabited by Putin's elite. In Moscow, these are prestigious south-western microdistricts. In the suburbs of Moscow there is the Rublev highway and its surroundings, where Putin's close friends live: oligarchs and officials.

One of the drones fell in the village of Ilyinskoe - just 3 kilometers from the residence of President Putin in Novo-Ogarevo.

In the village of Znamenskoye, there is an estate belonging to Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko. Next door is the residence of Prime Minister Mikhail Myshustin "Gorky-9" and the house of the president's ex-son-in-law Kirill Shamalov. The father of the governor of the Moscow region, senator Yury Vorobyev and defense minister Sergei Shoigu live nearby.

Near the village of Zhukovka in kp "Ilyinskoe Pole" stand opposite each other the mansions of Putin's closest friends, the brothers Arkady and Boris Rotenbergov. And next door is the house of Shoigu's lover Elena Shebunova. Sergei Kyryenko's house is in the village of "Landshaft". Igor Sechyn's house in Barvikha. Mikoyan's former dacha is owned by the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov.

In Arkhangelskoye the house of the head of the Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin, who the other day brought Putin a map of Europe with Ukraine absent there (later it turned out to be present).

The mistress of the head of VTB — TV presenter Nailya Asker-Zade, the deputy minister of defense Ruslan Tsalikov, the mother-in-law of the head of Rostech Sergey Chemezov — Lyudmila Rukavyshnikova live in Razdory.

The drone was headed to the village of Vlasikha - there is the central command post of the Strategic Missile Forces,” — the journalists wrote.

If there's any justice in this world, then Putin's McMansion needs to be burnt to the ground by a Chinese drone. Without meaning to be too nasty, ideally with him and his cronies inside it.

[tabascoboy]

If there's any justice in this world, then Putin's McMansion needs to be burnt to the ground by a Chinese drone. Without meaning to be too nasty, ideally with him and his cronies inside it.

At this point he's so divorced from reality and rationality that he'd probably try to invade Finland for revenge

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]