NPR

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:25 pm Okay. So your argument is when he's fit he's phenomenal, yes? Not occasionally, not at his best, just if he's fit he's phenomenal.

You can take it as read that that's what I'm arguing against. A fit Underhill has put in poor / mediocre performances for England in the past. Like, for example, over the summer.

I'm trying to work out how you've concluded that I'd think Underhill has never had a bad game. Every single player played like utter gash for England over the last few years - maybe not quite late-stage-Billy-Vunipola - but that's not the benchmark any sensible person would set.

Anyway, that's irrelevant -I mainly dispute your characterisation of him slow or ineffective over the ball, and with few other qualities than hitting people and some improved carrying. That doesn't chime with what I see - not even slightly. I see him as a very well rounded player with a broad skill set, who indeed melts people in the tackle, can link play and carry, but can get over the ball and disrupt and steal ball. You see him as Dan Lydiate in white. OK, we disagree.

inactionman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:40 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:25 pm Okay. So your argument is when he's fit he's phenomenal, yes? Not occasionally, not at his best, just if he's fit he's phenomenal.

You can take it as read that that's what I'm arguing against. A fit Underhill has put in poor / mediocre performances for England in the past. Like, for example, over the summer.

I'm trying to work out how you've concluded that I'd think Underhill has never had a bad game. Every single player played like utter gash for England over the last few years - maybe not quite late-stage-Billy-Vunipola - but that's not the benchmark any sensible person would set.

Anyway, that's irrelevant -I mainly dispute your characterisation of him slow or ineffective over the ball, and with few other qualities than hitting people and some improved carrying. That doesn't chime with what I see - not even slightly. I see him as a very well rounded player with a broad skill set, who indeed melts people in the tackle, can link play and carry, but can get over the ball and disrupt and steal ball. You see him as Dan Lydiate in white. OK, we disagree.

Listen, if you're going to be painfully literal about one sentence I'd at least appreciate the same about the other words I used. I've been very clear what I think about him and it's not that he's slow (just not quick for a 7 and slower than our other available 7s) nor that he is ineffective over the ball (just not top tier and not as good as our other available 7s). You may not see a distinction but to me it's important that we recognise the difference between "he's not as strong in this area as his competition" and "this is a weakness of his", especially when discussing why he's more vulnerable to being dropped than said competition. A weakness would be not being a lineout option (which he can't do anything about, and is also true of Earl) or bad hands (which was true in his early days, not now)

If I meant that Underhill was slow and crap over the ball, I'd just say that. Instead I meant the words I used, and none of those are saying he's Dan Lydiate in disguise. Compared to his peers he is a little bit behind in a few areas, and has only one area where he's undeniably superior, plus his excellent discipline. This is all really uncontroversial stuff.

I'd also love it if we got a performance like yesterday or the 3rd place game from him every time he's fit, but it's patently untrue. That is not an insult; we do not have any players who are fantastic every time they are fit and selected. That's PSDT, van Der Flier, Savea territory. He's also had some disappointing performances this year when fit!

S/Lt_Phillips wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2024 7:20 pm Wales isn't going to have much representation, based on today, and can't see them looking much better against SA next weekend. The front row did well today, but I think the only players that stand out are Reffell and Jac Morgan - and as noted the backrow is going to be a tough choice for the selectors.

well using Gatland's selection criteria then zero as you can't pick players from teams that constantly lose...

Do we think Farrell will be tempted to use the Tour to help develop some fringe Ireland players, Gatland-style?

Interesting weekend for Lions consideration. England beat a 2nd rate Japanese team with ease, Wales get thumped again by a SA team never out of 2nd gear, Ireland thump a not bad Fiji team and Scotland beat a decent Aussies team with a bit to spare.

Still cant see any Welsh players putting their hands up for selection, even the reliable Morgan and Reffell looked very out of sorts. Didn't see Ireland or England games but must be difficult to judge any performances against their weak opponents? Scotland had a number of guys put their hands up for selection and didn't see any of them losing personal battles against their opposite numbers in gold.

So after AIs (Ireland v Aussies still to come) it still looks like a squad dominated by Irish and Scots with a smattering of English forwards and Smith as back up 10 to Russell?

Got to think the Scots should be the 2nd most represented team, but why do I think they won't be?

C T wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:45 pm Got to think the Scots should be the 2nd most represented team, but why do I think they won't be?

Historical precedent

I don't think there are too many players nailed-on at the moment. Gibson-Park is probably one. Furlong and Fagerson for test team 3 and 18, toss a coin as to which is which. Porter for the loosehead berth? He gets away with murder, but he keeps getting away with it so for as long as he does so, I'd pick him. I like Genge's carrying, Schoeman will obviously be in the mix. The Welsh have a couple of decent props - it's probably an area which will see real debate among the 4 nations' representatives.

Bolters?

Tom Jordan is one to watch for that, I think.

dpedin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:23 pm Interesting weekend for Lions consideration. England beat a 2nd rate Japanese team with ease, Wales get thumped again by a SA team never out of 2nd gear, Ireland thump a not bad Fiji team and Scotland beat a decent Aussies team with a bit to spare.

Still cant see any Welsh players putting their hands up for selection, even the reliable Morgan and Reffell looked very out of sorts. Didn't see Ireland or England games but must be difficult to judge any performances against their weak opponents? Scotland had a number of guys put their hands up for selection and didn't see any of them losing personal battles against their opposite numbers in gold.

So after AIs (Ireland v Aussies still to come) it still looks like a squad dominated by Irish and Scots with a smattering of English forwards and Smith as back up 10 to Russell?

I think the Aussie 7 outplayed Darge. Will be interesting to see how the Aussie 7 goes against Ireland as he looked very good.

Backrow is going to be a hell of a fight to get on the plane.

C T wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:45 pm Got to think the Scots should be the 2nd most represented team, but why do I think they won't be?

Firstly, they have to not fluff the Six Nations. What if they lose to Ireland, France, and England?

robmatic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:33 pm

C T wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:45 pm Got to think the Scots should be the 2nd most represented team, but why do I think they won't be?

Firstly, they have to not fluff the Six Nations. What if they lose to Ireland, France, and England?

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:38 pm

robmatic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:33 pm

C T wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:45 pm Got to think the Scots should be the 2nd most represented team, but why do I think they won't be?

Firstly, they have to not fluff the Six Nations. What if they lose to Ireland, France, and England?

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:20 pm

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:38 pm

robmatic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:33 pm

Firstly, they have to not fluff the Six Nations. What if they lose to Ireland, France, and England?

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:24 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:20 pm

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:38 pm

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

I’d have agreed re Jones a year ago but I think he’s suddenly on people’s radar. Speaking to Saffers at the recent game literally every inr of them brought Jones up unprompted as being world class

In fairness, knowing Saffers, it was probably to claim they tought him everything he knows, but it seemed genuine

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:24 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:20 pm

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:38 pm

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

Jones and Kinghorn on current form would be in my squad

The problem for Jones is that very few out-and-out centers that don't cover other positions tend to travel. Despite it not being as competitive on paper as the backrow, I think center will be just as brutal come squad announcement time.

PornDog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 6:57 pm The problem for Jones is that very few out-and-out centers that don't cover other positions tend to travel. Despite it not being as competitive on paper as the backrow, I think center will be just as brutal come squad announcement time.

Jones plays both centre positions plus wing and fullback - he played 15 for Harlequins a fair amount and has played on the wing for Glasgow.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 7:19 pm

PornDog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 6:57 pm The problem for Jones is that very few out-and-out centers that don't cover other positions tend to travel. Despite it not being as competitive on paper as the backrow, I think center will be just as brutal come squad announcement time.

Jones plays both centre positions plus wing and fullback - he played 15 for Harlequins a fair amount and has played on the wing for Glasgow.

Both Scottish and Ireland centre will go, very little competition from English and Welsh centers TBF. Only one that could make a case is Lawrence but he is a bit one dimensional. I would go with the centre pairings who know and play well together.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 7:19 pm

PornDog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 6:57 pm The problem for Jones is that very few out-and-out centers that don't cover other positions tend to travel. Despite it not being as competitive on paper as the backrow, I think center will be just as brutal come squad announcement time.

Jones plays both centre positions plus wing and fullback - he played 15 for Harlequins a fair amount and has played on the wing for Glasgow.

Fair enough! Ringer has played a bit of wing, but its mostly of the "break glass" variety. Tui and Aki are only 12s (they play a bit of 13, but not really), Henshaw is equally adept at 12 or 13. I reckon Osbourne has a very good shout as a utility bolter though. Just how many centres/utility backs do you reckon will travel?

* Obviously a lot can happen yet in the 6N

PornDog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 7:52 pm
* Obviously a lot can happen yet in the 6N

Yeah. Ultimately whilst it's fun to talk about now, the 6N will have a huge amount of weight in the selection discussions. Any players hitting it out the park in the spring will be on the plane and a few performing now will fall by the wayside.

Worth mentioning Bundee Aki will be 35 by the time of the lions tour. That’s knocking on for a centre.

The BBC have created a Lions XV using Opta Index stats as the only criteria:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union ... qydjydzd8o

7 Scots (not necessarily the ones you might expect), 4 Irish, 4 English and no Welsh (no surprise there).

Whatever happens between now and the summer, I think we can all agree that there is no way that Ben Spencer will be at 9 for the Lions.

Can't see many English players making the matchday Lions 23 - but there'll probably be a few in the wider squad.

Itoje, M Smith and Mitchell should be there and Farrell will probably get a berth. Others that might be close; Waboso, Martin, Underhill, Earl, Sleightholme, Lawes. Of course, a lot might depend on injuries - there's always quite a few 1st choice players that end the NH season out for a few months with injuries.

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:34 am Can't see many English players making the matchday Lions 23 - but there'll probably be a few in the wider squad.

Itoje, M Smith and Mitchell should be there and Farrell will probably get a berth. Others that might be close; Waboso, Martin, Underhill, Earl, Sleightholme, Lawes. Of course, a lot might depend on injuries - there's always quite a few 1st choice players that end the NH season out for a few months with injuries.

Can't see more than 6 maybe 7 English on tour.
Add Furbank to your maybe list if he continues his form into the 6N
I think of the French based English Jack Willis has the best chance. On reported current form there are better options elsewhere than Farrell and as much as I love Coutney, this will be one tour too far for him

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:40 am

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:34 am Can't see many English players making the matchday Lions 23 - but there'll probably be a few in the wider squad.

Itoje, M Smith and Mitchell should be there and Farrell will probably get a berth. Others that might be close; Waboso, Martin, Underhill, Earl, Sleightholme, Lawes. Of course, a lot might depend on injuries - there's always quite a few 1st choice players that end the NH season out for a few months with injuries.

Can't see more than 6 maybe 7 English on tour.
Add Furbank to your maybe list if he continues his form into the 6N
I think of the French based English Jack Willis has the best chance. On reported current form there are better options elsewhere than Farrell and as much as I love Coutney, this will be one tour too far for him

Agreed - but, traditionally, Lions tours have been selected largely on reputation rather than form - you always seem to get a few stalwarts on their last Hurrah.

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:24 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:20 pm

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:38 pm

Yup. I think only Z Fagerson, Russell, DvdM and Tuipolotou are pretty much guaranteed to tour. The rest will need the team to do well in the 6N.

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

I think Dempsey has a decent shout as well.

Blackmac wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:43 am

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:24 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:20 pm

And Jones is say. I’d say Kinghorn is fairly nailed on as well

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

I think Dempsey has a decent shout as well.

Jones must be nailed on, surely. He's a fantastic player. How about Darcy Graham - always looks good when I've seen Scotland play.

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:47 am

Blackmac wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:43 am

clydecloggie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 5:24 pm

I'm not sure Jones is as appreciated as he should be. Kinghorn's a fair shout, agreed.

I think Dempsey has a decent shout as well.

Jones must be nailed on, surely. He's a fantastic player. How about Darcy Graham - always looks good when I've seen Scotland play.

Graham has a good chance but competition for the back three is going to be very strong, and if Kinghorn and VdM are already in, coaches may look to balance things by picking from another country (not that they ever did that in Scotland's favour mind)

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:22 pm

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:47 am

Blackmac wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:43 am

I think Dempsey has a decent shout as well.

Jones must be nailed on, surely. He's a fantastic player. How about Darcy Graham - always looks good when I've seen Scotland play.

Graham has a good chance but competition for the back three is going to be very strong, and if Kinghorn and VdM are already in, coaches may look to balance things by picking from another country (not that they ever did that in Scotland's favour mind)

In our dark days, Tommy Seymour toured as a harmless quota winger; the same thing might work in reverse for Graham, with some Welshie going instead of him.

I will have a go at a Lions squad. Based on 37 as per SA tour.

Forwards (20):
LHP - Porter, Schoeman, Genge
Hooker - Sheehan, Kelleher, Lake
THP - Furlong, Fagerson, Bealham
2nd Row - McCarthy, Beirne, Cummings, Martin, Itoje,
Back Row - Doris, JVdF, Morgan, Earl, Dempsey/Fagerson, Cunningham-South

Backs (17):
9 - JGP, Williams, White/Mitchell
10 - Russell, Smith x2
Centres - Huwipulotu, Aki, Ringrose, Henshaw
Back 3 - Keenan, Kinghorn, Duhan, Graham, Hansen/Lowe, Dyer

Ireland - 15
Scotland -9/10
England - 7/8
Wales - 3

Clearly a lean towards Scottish players there and tried to get Wales up to 3. I suspect there will end up more English than Scots as they are stronger in areas Scotland have depth and Scotland stronger in areas that are full of competition so expect there will end up being 6-8 Scots.

Can't see them taking 5 centers. Reckon one of those will miss out for a more utility type player such as an Osbourne.

PornDog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 3:28 pm Can't see them taking 5 centers. Reckon one of those will miss out for a more utility type player such as an Osbourne.

He only named 4 centres !

Must have forgot Henry Slade

inactionman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:38 pm Must forget Henry Slade

fixed it for you

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:30 pm

PornDog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 3:28 pm Can't see them taking 5 centers. Reckon one of those will miss out for a more utility type player such as an Osbourne.

He only named 4 centres !

Huwipulotu

It's a portmanteau, you know like Brangelina or Bennifer and what not!

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:39 pm

inactionman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:38 pm Borthwick must forget Henry Slade

fixed it for you

You missed a bit.

Big D wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:53 pm I will have a go at a Lions squad. Based on 37 as per SA tour.

Forwards (20):
LHP - Porter, Schoeman, Genge
Hooker - Sheehan, Kelleher, Lake
THP - Furlong, Fagerson, Bealham
2nd Row - McCarthy, Beirne, Cummings, Martin, Itoje,
Back Row - Doris, JVdF, Morgan, Earl, Dempsey/Fagerson, Cunningham-South

Backs (17):
9 - JGP, Williams, White/Mitchell
10 - Russell, Smith x2
Centres - Huwipulotu, Aki, Ringrose, Henshaw
Back 3 - Keenan, Kinghorn, Duhan, Graham, Hansen/Lowe, Dyer

Ireland - 15
Scotland -9/10
England - 7/8
Wales - 3

Clearly a lean towards Scottish players there and tried to get Wales up to 3. I suspect there will end up more English than Scots as they are stronger in areas Scotland have depth and Scotland stronger in areas that are full of competition so expect there will end up being 6-8 Scots.

I can’t see Cummings getting picked. I’m not saying he isn’t up to it, but he’s a workhorse who never gets headlines. Jonny Gray has always been the same.

Big D wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:53 pm I will have a go at a Lions squad. Based on 37 as per SA tour.

Forwards (20):
LHP - Porter, Schoeman, Genge
Hooker - Sheehan, Kelleher, Lake
THP - Furlong, Fagerson, Bealham
2nd Row - McCarthy, Beirne, Cummings, Martin, Itoje,
Back Row - Doris, JVdF, Morgan, Earl, Dempsey/Fagerson, Cunningham-South

Backs (17):
9 - JGP, Williams, White/Mitchell
10 - Russell, Smith x2
Centres - Huwipulotu, Aki, Ringrose, Henshaw
Back 3 - Keenan, Kinghorn, Duhan, Graham, Hansen/Lowe, Dyer

Ireland - 15
Scotland -9/10
England - 7/8
Wales - 3

Clearly a lean towards Scottish players there and tried to get Wales up to 3. I suspect there will end up more English than Scots as they are stronger in areas Scotland have depth and Scotland stronger in areas that are full of competition so expect there will end up being 6-8 Scots.

Furlong needs a good 6 N to prove his fitness, he's not the player he was last Lions tour. Don't rate Bealham much. But can't think of any alternatives
Chessum if fully recovered over Martin
Cunningham-South maybe a good impact player but can't do 80 minutes
Feyi-Waboso over Dyer for his power through the tackle

PornDog wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 3:28 pm Can't see them taking 5 centers. Reckon one of those will miss out for a more utility type player such as an Osbourne.

Jones has played wing and full back enough over the years (20ish starts out ofb125 starts) to be able to cover.

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 6:00 pm

Big D wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:53 pm I will have a go at a Lions squad. Based on 37 as per SA tour.

Forwards (20):
LHP - Porter, Schoeman, Genge
Hooker - Sheehan, Kelleher, Lake
THP - Furlong, Fagerson, Bealham
2nd Row - McCarthy, Beirne, Cummings, Martin, Itoje,
Back Row - Doris, JVdF, Morgan, Earl, Dempsey/Fagerson, Cunningham-South

Backs (17):
9 - JGP, Williams, White/Mitchell
10 - Russell, Smith x2
Centres - Huwipulotu, Aki, Ringrose, Henshaw
Back 3 - Keenan, Kinghorn, Duhan, Graham, Hansen/Lowe, Dyer

Ireland - 15
Scotland -9/10
England - 7/8
Wales - 3

Clearly a lean towards Scottish players there and tried to get Wales up to 3. I suspect there will end up more English than Scots as they are stronger in areas Scotland have depth and Scotland stronger in areas that are full of competition so expect there will end up being 6-8 Scots.

Furlong needs a good 6 N to prove his fitness, he's not the player he was last Lions tour. Don't rate Bealham much. But can't think of any alternatives
Chessum if fully recovered over Martin
Cunningham-South maybe a good impact player but can't do 80 minutes
Feyi-Waboso over Dyer for his power through the tackle

Yeah THP is a bit grim at the moment.

C-S would be an impact player in that scenario. Would load up the bench for maximum impact as I think the Aussies are more susceptible late on than others. Back row selection might change weekly.

Dyer was a token pick. Wales will need 3-4.