What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Still seeing speculation that once Russia has "finished" in Luhansk Oblast that they will turn their attention to Odesa. Really can't see that they will be in any state to expand their occupation westwards in the south though without a very long time to reinforce, regroup and establish a supply chain by land and sea. Their only advantage appears to be by distracting UA with decoys and feints in the north with support from Belarus, trying to pull defensive detachments around away from the east and south. If Ukraine can maintain a counter-offensive in the south and let's hope retake Kherson city it's hard to see Russia able to do any more than defend as their morale would surely go right down the toilet.

[petej]

If you're going to eat a dog then a yorkie ain't going to really do it.

Hey, if your food budget's only RUR 5,000, you ain't tucking into no labrador.

Or the Labrador has already been eaten.

[FalseBayFC]

A lot of training happening on the low down. Poland just announced a 18 KRAB 155mm self-propelled howitzers transfer. They also said 100 Ukrainian redlegs had been trained already for the kit. What would really get me erect is if a couple of dozen Ukie pilots had been in F16 training for the last 3 months. I've heard it would take about a year to transfer skills from a Mig 29 to a 4th gen fighter but it would be hella cool for the Ukies to suddenly get 20 F16s with AIM air to air and just shred the oppo jets.

Would've been nice but from what I've read and watched pilot training is less than half of the challenge.
The real challenge is maintenance...

One of the reasons our Gripens are grounded. We can't afford to pay for the ground support. You'd think that Lockheed Martin and the various sub-contractors could keep a Ukrainian fleet of F16s going inside Ukraine. Private deal.

From the SAAB website:

Defence and security company Saab has received a support contract for the South African Gripen weapon system. The order has a total value of SEK 206 million (ZAR 314 million) over the period November 2017 to February 2020.

[Flockwitt]

Still seeing speculation that once Russia has "finished" in Luhansk Oblast that they will turn their attention to Odesa. Really can't see that they will be in any state to expand their occupation westwards in the south though without a very long time to reinforce, regroup and establish a supply chain by land and sea. Their only advantage appears to be by distracting UA with decoys and feints in the north with support from Belarus, trying to pull defensive detachments around away from the east and south. If Ukraine can maintain a counter-offensive in the south and let's hope retake Kherson city it's hard to see Russia able to do any more than defend as their morale would surely go right down the toilet.

The Odessa stuff is la la land. Like Russian propaganda level fantasy.

[fishfoodie]

Why are the media determined to spin this as a, "U-Turn" ?

Do they really not understand the point of Biden was making, or are they just spinning the GOP/Russian lines ?

He was obviously making the point that the US wasn't going to supply weapons that would be used offensively against Russia, it was supplying them for use inside Ukraine, & only inside Ukraine.

Biden to send missile system to Ukraine in U-turn - and issues nuclear warning to Russia

Washington attempts to tread a narrow line by sending Ukraine weapons while not inflaming Vladimir Putin and triggering a broader conflict that could spill over into other parts of Europe.

Joe Biden has announced the US will send medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid its forces as they struggle to stall Russian progress, in an apparent change of mind.

The US president said on Monday that Washington was "not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia".

But with Vladimir Putin's forces making advances in the Donbas region, the decision to deliver the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was taken on the condition Ukraine does not use it to launch strikes over the border.

Officials say the systems are part of a new $700m (£556m) package of security assistance for Kyiv from the US that will include helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more.

https://news.sky.com/story/biden-to-sen ... a-12625079

[Hellraiser]

Why are the media determined to spin this as a, "U-Turn" ?

Do they really not understand the point of Biden was making, or are they just spinning the GOP/Russian lines ?

He was obviously making the point that the US wasn't going to supply weapons that would be used offensively against Russia, it was supplying them for use inside Ukraine, & only inside Ukraine.

Biden to send missile system to Ukraine in U-turn - and issues nuclear warning to Russia

Washington attempts to tread a narrow line by sending Ukraine weapons while not inflaming Vladimir Putin and triggering a broader conflict that could spill over into other parts of Europe.

Joe Biden has announced the US will send medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid its forces as they struggle to stall Russian progress, in an apparent change of mind.

The US president said on Monday that Washington was "not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia".

But with Vladimir Putin's forces making advances in the Donbas region, the decision to deliver the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was taken on the condition Ukraine does not use it to launch strikes over the border.

Officials say the systems are part of a new $700m (£556m) package of security assistance for Kyiv from the US that will include helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more.

https://news.sky.com/story/biden-to-sen ... a-12625079

The media aren't that bright.

[petej]

Why are the media determined to spin this as a, "U-Turn" ?

Do they really not understand the point of Biden was making, or are they just spinning the GOP/Russian lines ?

He was obviously making the point that the US wasn't going to supply weapons that would be used offensively against Russia, it was supplying them for use inside Ukraine, & only inside Ukraine.

Biden to send missile system to Ukraine in U-turn - and issues nuclear warning to Russia

Washington attempts to tread a narrow line by sending Ukraine weapons while not inflaming Vladimir Putin and triggering a broader conflict that could spill over into other parts of Europe.

Joe Biden has announced the US will send medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid its forces as they struggle to stall Russian progress, in an apparent change of mind.

The US president said on Monday that Washington was "not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia".

But with Vladimir Putin's forces making advances in the Donbas region, the decision to deliver the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was taken on the condition Ukraine does not use it to launch strikes over the border.

Officials say the systems are part of a new $700m (£556m) package of security assistance for Kyiv from the US that will include helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more.

https://news.sky.com/story/biden-to-sen ... a-12625079

The media aren't that bright.

Particularly the political media.

[fishfoodie]

Why are the media determined to spin this as a, "U-Turn" ?

Do they really not understand the point of Biden was making, or are they just spinning the GOP/Russian lines ?

He was obviously making the point that the US wasn't going to supply weapons that would be used offensively against Russia, it was supplying them for use inside Ukraine, & only inside Ukraine.



https://news.sky.com/story/biden-to-sen ... a-12625079

The media aren't that bright.

Particularly the political media.

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The media aren't that bright.

Particularly the political media.

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

Click bait infotainment.

[pjm1]

Particularly the political media.

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

Click bait infotainment.

Well, they've got Love Island to distract the plebs with soon. We can stick to our twatter and youtube feed from those more in the know.

[petej]

Brilliant thread. Particularly like the submariner example.

[Tilly Orifice]

Why are the media determined to spin this as a, "U-Turn" ?

Do they really not understand the point of Biden was making, or are they just spinning the GOP/Russian lines ?

He was obviously making the point that the US wasn't going to supply weapons that would be used offensively against Russia, it was supplying them for use inside Ukraine, & only inside Ukraine.

Biden to send missile system to Ukraine in U-turn - and issues nuclear warning to Russia

Washington attempts to tread a narrow line by sending Ukraine weapons while not inflaming Vladimir Putin and triggering a broader conflict that could spill over into other parts of Europe.

Joe Biden has announced the US will send medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid its forces as they struggle to stall Russian progress, in an apparent change of mind.

The US president said on Monday that Washington was "not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia".

But with Vladimir Putin's forces making advances in the Donbas region, the decision to deliver the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) was taken on the condition Ukraine does not use it to launch strikes over the border.

Officials say the systems are part of a new $700m (£556m) package of security assistance for Kyiv from the US that will include helicopters, Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, tactical vehicles, spare parts and more.

https://news.sky.com/story/biden-to-sen ... a-12625079

The media aren't that honest.

Fixed, I think.

[lemonhead]

Brilliant thread. Particularly like the submariner example.

Big fan of the pigeon crossing the road, personally.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://informnapalm.org/en/teaching-or ... like-orcs/

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

The media aren't that bright.

Particularly the political media.

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

Vested interest in making a democrat look bad?

[Hellraiser]

[Grandpa]

More...

Russia’s Missed Bond Payment Triggers Default Insurance

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-mi ... 1654099766

[fishfoodie]

Saw a similar video today, with a dead straight road, & Russian vehicles traveling along it, with Ukrainian artillery trying to hit them, but you could see from the wide scattering of craters in the surrounding fields, that they couldn't, either get enough artillery targeting the road, or what they had, just wasn't accurate enough.

It just summed up why they are desperate to get modern, accurate artillery.

[Guy Smiley]

Particularly the political media.

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

Vested interest in making a democrat look bad?

It's Murdoch...

c'mon. It's not so much a vested interest as a concerted campaign. Look at the political landscape in the three countries Murdoch media is dominant. He just had his arse kicked in Australia. It might be time for a reckoning.

[Hellraiser]

Saw a similar video today, with a dead straight road, & Russian vehicles traveling along it, with Ukrainian artillery trying to hit them, but you could see from the wide scattering of craters in the surrounding fields, that they couldn't, either get enough artillery targeting the road, or what they had, just wasn't accurate enough.

It just summed up why they are desperate to get modern, accurate artillery.

A Ukrainian artillery man from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade was on the Walter Report livestream earlier and said that it takes the old Soviet guns they use up to 20 rounds to hit a target, with a M777 it's taking two.

[Rinkals]

That's not the problem; they have Ex-Generals on every day, & other experts who know exactly what was said, & why that phrasing was used, but they still deliberately misrepresent what was said. It can't be just written off as editorial stupidity.

Vested interest in making a democrat look bad?

It's Murdoch...

c'mon. It's not so much a vested interest as a concerted campaign. Look at the political landscape in the three countries Murdoch media is dominant. He just had his arse kicked in Australia. It might be time for a reckoning.

I thought you were being sarcastic.

I don't think there's anyone I would like to see go down with Putin as much as Murdoch.

Speaking of which, I am extremely disappointed that the latter appears to still be alive, despite rumours to the contrary.

[laurent]

Our Danish Friends have now voted to Join the EU Defense Part of Mastricht Treaty.

Another win for Putin

[lemonhead]

Looks like both advances have either paused or stalled at the minute.

Snippet on first principles

[Random1]

A cheery article from the guardian. One thing I think is definitely true; the resolve in the east is likely much stronger than the west.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... imir-putin

[MungoMan]

A cheery article from the guardian. One thing I think is definitely true; the resolve in the east is likely much stronger than the west.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... imir-putin

Globalisation is a thing. An interlinked global economy is a thing. Opportunity cost is a thing.

Shortages of wheat, gas and - to an extent - coal flowing from the war and / or sanctions have been a real boon to Straya's wheat gas and coal producers, noting Straya is a majot player in those markets (where gas includes LNG).

OTOH, world price linkage also means domestic coal and gas (and hence electricity) prices have gone thought the stratosphere, with more pain almost certain to come.

[tabascoboy]

Not very good machine TL of the original but...

[tabascoboy]

100 days...

Russia 'frustrated' by China's refusal to offer more support

An interesting report has surfaced overnight that suggests Russian officials have been growing "increasingly frustrated" with China's apparent refusal to provide more support.

While Beijing continues to back Russia publicly and has repeatedly referred to western sanctions as illegal, The Washington post quotes a Chinese official as describing recent discussions between the two countries as "tense".

According to the report, China is attempting to maintain its strong relations with Russia while avoiding also being targeted by sanctions - goals described by US officials as "contradictory" and "hard to fulfill".

"That has been difficult," a senior US official told the newspaper. "And it is insufficient from the Russian standpoint."

A source in Beijing with direct knowledge of the discussions, meanwhile, offered an indication that President Xi Jinping's administration was not willing to provide unlimited assistance to Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine.

“China has made clear its position on the situation in Ukraine, and on the illegal sanctions against Russia," they said.

"We understand [Moscow's] predicament. But we cannot ignore our own situation in this dialogue. China will always act in the best interest of the Chinese people."

It comes days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had not seen a "systematic effort" by China to help Russia evade sanctions - nor any significant military support from China to Russia.

Given the importance to Russia of its strategic relationship with China, any suggestion of constraints on Beijing's backing for Moscow will inevitably be the source of some concern in the Kremlin.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news ... s-12541713

[Hellraiser]

[Blake]

100 days...

Russia 'frustrated' by China's refusal to offer more support

An interesting report has surfaced overnight that suggests Russian officials have been growing "increasingly frustrated" with China's apparent refusal to provide more support.

While Beijing continues to back Russia publicly and has repeatedly referred to western sanctions as illegal, The Washington post quotes a Chinese official as describing recent discussions between the two countries as "tense".

According to the report, China is attempting to maintain its strong relations with Russia while avoiding also being targeted by sanctions - goals described by US officials as "contradictory" and "hard to fulfill".

"That has been difficult," a senior US official told the newspaper. "And it is insufficient from the Russian standpoint."

A source in Beijing with direct knowledge of the discussions, meanwhile, offered an indication that President Xi Jinping's administration was not willing to provide unlimited assistance to Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine.

“China has made clear its position on the situation in Ukraine, and on the illegal sanctions against Russia," they said.

"We understand [Moscow's] predicament. But we cannot ignore our own situation in this dialogue. China will always act in the best interest of the Chinese people."

It comes days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had not seen a "systematic effort" by China to help Russia evade sanctions - nor any significant military support from China to Russia.

Given the importance to Russia of its strategic relationship with China, any suggestion of constraints on Beijing's backing for Moscow will inevitably be the source of some concern in the Kremlin.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news ... s-12541713

China playing it out smartly. The more Russia bleeds, the easier it will be to bend them over a barrel when the dust settles and they have no friends or nations willing to trade with them anywhere.
Lots of energy and raw materials deposits that will be on sale for a bargain to feed Chinese manufacturing capacity and all that is needed is the infrastructure to move it into China.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

And another arson attack in Russia

[fishfoodie]

It looks like the, Eastern provinces, are starting to finally realize that they are only considered cannon fodder, by the Russians.

For decades they've gotten the shitty end of the stick from Moscow, & now that Mother Russia needs young men to die to keep the kleptocracy running, they're learning to stand up on their hind legs.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

This seems pretty specific to back up the claims of the UA counterattack and the trap laid for RU forces. As it says, by keeping in close contact it deters the Russian artillery shelling and airstrikes ( though you wouldn't put it past them to shell their own by accident or design)