What's going on in Ukraine?

[Plim]

I guess the narrative that these were launched from Ukraine and flew hundreds of kilometres undetected by air defence wasn't working out for them...more people will question that once the checks start within Russia itself

1/ The Russian authorities reportedly believe that Tuesday's drone attack on Moscow was launched from within Russia. An operation to find vehicles carrying drones is said to have been launched across a wide area of western Russia.

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "Moscow is confident that the drones that attacked the capital and several other regions were launched from Russian territory. As a result, from today, cars will be searched at checkpoints for UAVs."

3/ The Russian Ministry of Defence is said to have launched Operation Anaconda to seach for 'UAV carriers' on a permanent basis. VChK-OGPU reports that "teams of operatives, district police officers and traffic police officers are now being set up to be deployed at key posts."

4/ "Similar reinforcements have already been seen today in the north of the Moscow region. From tomorrow, officers will be deployed in the southern regions. Particular attention will be paid to foreign number plates, [and] any UAVs in the cabin or the trunk."

5/ "The officers will also be directed to thoroughly check the documents of drivers and passengers, with the data from the scene to be sent to the Interior Ministry's Centre for Operational Information and Investigation (TsORI)." /end

Smart as whips these Russian security people.

[fishfoodie]

Now the Moscow cops will have to work out the correct bribe rate for illegal possession of a drone

[Blackmac]

Now the Moscow cops will have to work out the correct bribe rate for illegal possession of a drone

Probably not a great time to legally possess one either.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

In addition, the RU MoD defences apply the same tactic as they have been doing to Ukraine, shelling in volume without discrimination and hitting their own civilians in the process

[Hellraiser]

Apparently the Ukrainians have managed to stockpile 6m artillery shells of all types including at least 100k DPCMI cluster munitions. Majority is being held outside Ukraine and is trucked in country as needed for JIT use.

[tabascoboy]

Apparently the Ukrainians have managed to stockpile 6m artillery shells of all types including at least 100k DPCMI cluster munitions. Majority is being held outside Ukraine and is trucked in country as needed for JIT use.

Pfft, Russia have already destroyed them all, plus twice as many Storm Shadows and HIMARS as they've ever been provided with...

LOL

[GogLais]

Apparently the Ukrainians have managed to stockpile 6m artillery shells of all types including at least 100k DPCMI cluster munitions. Majority is being held outside Ukraine and is trucked in country as needed for JIT use.

Pfft, Russia have already destroyed them all, plus twice as many Storm Shadows and HIMARS as they've ever been provided with...

LOL

Perhaps it’s a camouflaged road test mock-up of the next Lada. Is that still a brand?

[fishfoodie]

Is there a drain plug in the bottom ?

You know, so you can hose out the previous occupants & re-use it again, & again, after a little patching.

[tabascoboy]

UA do seem to be stepping up the shaping ops, a railway line in Melitopol area was hit earlier

[Hellraiser]

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Twitter seems to have deboosted Theiner. Musk really is a shit.

[tabascoboy]

Presumably UA got some good intel, and Storm Shadows did the rest

[tabascoboy]

Russians really don't get irony, do they...

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

"It's not a mobilization..."

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

There will have to be a massive amount of logistical movements away from the front lines too, so they certainly want to keep that under wraps and not have people inadvertently or deliberately giving away that info.

[Flockwitt]

"It's not a mobilization..."

This is going to be interesting. There's been plenty of commentary that Russia needs another round of mobilization - and plenty of speculation about the if/how/what the impact will be.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The Free Russians are saying RuAF have abandoned Shebekino, which is huge if true. It's a city of 40k people.

[tabascoboy]

Prigozhin, while a cnut, is also a gift that keeps on giving

By order of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, fire was opened on the "Wagnerites" leaving Bakhmut when they left the city and cleared the mines laid by the Ministry of Defense to undermine the columns of "Wagner" - Leader of the PMC Prigozhin

...

The leader of this group was an officer of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Commander of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, lieutenant colonel of military unit 13647, who was in a state of alcohol intoxication.

[Hellraiser]

Ukraine must have a stockpile of Tochka-U missiles they've been hoarding since last year because I've seen two videos of launches in the past three days.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians have begun mine-clearing operations with MICLICs.

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Thomas C. Theiner
@noclador
As there seems to be some confusion:

Ukraine's offensive force is 35 combat brigades, 2 special forces regiments, 1 air assault regiment, 52 rifle battalions, 2 pontoon regiments, 6 artillery brigades, whole bunch of air defense, engineer, reconnaissance, drone, and logistic units... while another 86 (!) brigades hold the rest of the front. These 86 brigades are backed by 9 artillery brigades and lots and lots of combat support units. Ukraine has now more than twice (!) the number of brigades the US Army had at the end of the Cold War.

[fishfoodie]

Is this the Ukrainian plan ?, probe in several places, each a plausible position, but always having a couple of places that are the actual targets of the offensive ?

There are so many blinds & distractions, but ultimately the objectives are:

(1) drive a wedge into the annexed territories, cutting off >30% of land, & fucking the supply lines up
(2) cause the civilian & paramilitary population to panic & flee
(3) route the Orcs as they retreat & seize as much equipment as possible & kill as many paramilitaries as possible
(4) make Crimea untenable

[Hellraiser]

The Free Russians are saying RuAF have abandoned Shebekino, which is huge if true. It's a city of 40k people.

And to the surprise of absolutely no one, Russian troops looted houses and shops as they left the city. Just to be clear, Shebekino is in Russia...

[Flockwitt]

Well things are heating up, but let's see how Ukraine's probing attacks pan out, I see some sources calling it the start of the offensive, but that's all relative.

Enormous silence from the Kremlin recently. The Ukrainians might do well to let the Russians stew in the their own juice for a week or two yet.

[laurent]

The Russians claim to have repulsed the offensive. All done and dusted.

[tabascoboy]

The Russians claim to have repulsed the offensive. All done and dusted.

That's it then, sign away the lands occupied and negotiate for peace!

Meanwhile, further to that I posted yesterday evening about Wagner coming under fire from RU MoD while moving away from Bakhmut

Wagner mercenaries have taken a Russian army LT-Colonel prisoner. He shows obvious signs of torture. The trigger was a shootout between Russian troops and Wagner mercenaries with casualties on both sides.

Videos like this go way beyond the actual incident. It not only shows that the Wagner mercenaries and the regular Russian army are at each other’s throats but it also sends a message to every Russian soldier to not mess with Wagner, especially the Russian general staff.

Prigozhin and his private army are feeling untouchable and that instance proves what I have been saying since months in regards to Bakhmut. It was a bloody PR-stunt with zero military value (in the contrary). Its only aim was internal and the audience predictably took the bait. Instead of the Russian tricolor flag you see increasingly Wagner flags.

Prigozhin will eventually move against his real target, the Kremlin. He prepared the ground since months, even years, for that. He is after Putin’s throne, but he is clever enough to target the weaklings in Putin’s inner circle, first, like Gerasimov and especially Shoigu.

You will probably see soon Prigozhin being “generous”, and turning that army colonel over to the Russian military police. But the Russian civil war is inevitable and when looking at Belgorod/Bilhorod as well as this episode already raging.

[Slick]

The Russians claim to have repulsed the offensive. All done and dusted.

I watched a doco about Stalingrad last week. They did the meat grinder thing obviously, but were also pretty sneaky. I have my worries about this

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[tabascoboy]

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