NPR

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:45 pm Shout at the guy saying it went into lockdown "the following week after Friday 16th October" I guess bimbo

23rd of October it only became plural this morning. And cases are falling.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:35 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:18 pm Tier 3 timeline

But on Friday 16 October, the status of Lancashire also changed to the highest tier, with Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire upgraded the following week.

Warrington then moved into tier three on 27 October, and it was announced Nottingham and areas of Nottinghamshire would follow on Friday 30 October with West Yorkshire joining the following week.



So only Liverpool (plummeting) has any arguably statistically significant data on tier 3. Manchester next (downward gradient). Anazingly given the adherence to rules in there.

Others only been there for days once first week passes at most.

But clearly its not able to stop exponential growth - a shitshow, if you will.

Manchester has been in T3 for weeks and the graph you showed is not a positive one - it's dropping very slowly. Then look at Rochdale, at Bolton, at Stockport, at Bury. Same with the south Yorkshire places like Sheffield and Doncaster. That's the highest level and it's been that way for weeks, and we're seeing a slight drop in cases (not plummeting). Meanwhile, the rates go up in the rest of the country - meaning the tier system is rendered meaningless. It's simply not feasible to run the tier system in every part of the UK; it made some sense as an idea when starting from low amounts of the virus, so we could play whack-a-mole with outbreaks, but not where basically everywhere is increasing.

I’ll just repeat myself then.

Manchester has been 2 weeks. So only 1 week of data relevant to the restrictions. Despite “ 24 Hour Party People: Manchester has last night on tiles before Tier 3 restrictions”. And other protests. Yet numbers going down, and not a shitshow of exponentially going up.

Liverpool has had twice that time 2 weeks of data.

For the rest in tier 3, it’s only been days of relevant, but not statistically relevant naturally.

For the rest in tier 1/2, if still going up, the govt can shift it up a gear/tier.

While others in tier 1/2 like my area haven’t needed shifting up from tier 1, despite getting close.



I wouldn’t have been upset to have shuffled to tier 2 on the above basis. But it appears to have found equilibrium and even dropped under tier 1.

I’ll point out as well if not obvious. The thick line is a 7 day average. So even for Manchester that’s only one or two pixels of data from entirely tier 3 (after 1 extra week based on infection delays).

Greater Manchester is not just Manchester. Why do you keep ignoring what I'm saying about other locations in Greater Manchester and the other areas that were put into T3? You have to look at the whole picture.

I also recommend essentially picking random places on a map and checking them out too. It's not a pretty picture. Local lockdowns when the vast majority of the country is seeing a steep rise in cases is pointless - and entirely at odds with what the system was created for in the first place.

The ones you’ve hand picked I am struggling to see the upward exponential growth for the last week. The closest to upward might be Rochdale, but hard to tell with the 7 day average influence. Bolton heading down.

Edit: Bury is one still on the up out of the five chosen.

But we can take a look again at these 5 in a few days to look for this uncontrolled exponential growth.

Where did "uncontrolled exponentional growth" come from?

Did you do what I suggested and look at the country as a whole? Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that this whack-a-mole approach be applied to almost every major town and city in England?

7th November 2020

Cases: +24,957
Deaths: +413 (up from 326 last week)

Scotland had a bit of a jump today after a few days of decreasing or levelling

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:23 pm 7th November 2020

Cases: +24,957
Deaths: +413 (up from 326 last week)

And cases ? (Up 1.4%).

Those New York Biden celebrations are superspreading this deadly pandemic around

Plato’sCave wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:46 pm Those New York Biden celebrations are superspreading this deadly pandemic around

The ones outside the White House are just as bad.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:33 pm

Plato’sCave wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:46 pm Those New York Biden celebrations are superspreading this deadly pandemic around

The ones outside the White House are just as bad.

Yep...I completely understand the elation, but they are being very stupid about it. It’s going to be a very very bad couple of weeks.

People are going to start heading home for thanksgiving when they start getting contagious. It’s a clusterfuck.

But no money for hungry kids

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:03 am

But no money for hungry kids

Apart from when they fold to public opinion and do yet another U turn

C69 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:34 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:03 am

But no money for hungry kids

Apart from when they fold to public opinion and do yet another U turn

“I wish politicians and leaders would listen to public opinion and change policies”

“No, let’s be clear this is a U turn and “folding”....


Twats.


Ps , also funny once again to see IH behind the news. He really is a Cadwaller clown.

Hangover this morning, Bimbo?

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:07 am Hangover this morning, Bimbo?

No, I’m quite capable of calling out stupid hypocrisy without a hangover. I’m guessing you believe hungover or drunk is a default position.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:13 am

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:07 am Hangover this morning, Bimbo?

No, I’m quite capable of calling out stupid hypocrisy without a hangover. I’m guessing you believe hungover or drunk is a default position.

No, no, just surprised someone can be that angry on a message board on a Sunday morning.

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:38 am

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:13 am

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:07 am Hangover this morning, Bimbo?

No, I’m quite capable of calling out stupid hypocrisy without a hangover. I’m guessing you believe hungover or drunk is a default position.

No, no, just surprised someone can be that angry on a message board on a Sunday morning.

What on earth makes you think I’m angry? Once again it’s probably your viewing prism rather than anything else.

Probably

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:04 am

C69 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:34 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:03 am

But no money for hungry kids

Apart from when they fold to public opinion and do yet another U turn

“I wish politicians and leaders would listen to public opinion and change policies”

“No, let’s be clear this is a U turn and “folding”....


Twats.


Ps , also funny once again to see IH behind the news. He really is a Cadwaller clown.

320 Tory MPs now completely fecked off. Having voted for not providing school meals and defending the position in the face of huge public anger they are now sold down the river by the Blonde Bumblecunt trying to save his own skin. They will be furious given the twat was told this was the wrong decision and political disaster. A young black footballer has embarrassed the UK Gov into a major climb down, so much so they hide the news of the u-turn behind Biden being elected and the morning of Remembrance Sunday. How much lower can they go? Oh wait ... I forgot about the inevitable Brexit climbdown coming along soon. This is going to be fun to watch. He will be in rehab by Easter.

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:02 am

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:04 am

C69 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:34 am

Apart from when they fold to public opinion and do yet another U turn

“I wish politicians and leaders would listen to public opinion and change policies”

“No, let’s be clear this is a U turn and “folding”....


Twats.


Ps , also funny once again to see IH behind the news. He really is a Cadwaller clown.

320 Tory MPs now completely fecked off. Having voted for not providing school meals and defending the position in the face of huge public anger they are now sold down the river by the Blonde Bumblecunt trying to save his own skin. They will be furious given the twat was told this was the wrong decision and political disaster. A young black footballer has embarrassed the UK Gov into a major climb down, so much so they hide the news of the u-turn behind Biden being elected and the morning of Remembrance Sunday. How much lower can they go? Oh wait ... I forgot about the inevitable Brexit climbdown coming along soon. This is going to be fun to watch. He will be in rehab by Easter.

Fuck me!! Yet another shitshow by Downing St. About as well managed as the blonde cunt's private life

Greater Manchester aggregated, with key annotated dates.

Enters tier 3, and then 1 week after entering tier 3.



Is tier 3 failing?

320 Tory MPs now completely fecked off. Having voted for not providing school meals

Free school meals outside of school in the holidays. Just to clarify the lie.

Oh wait ... I forgot about the inevitable Brexit climbdown coming along soon. This is going to be fun to watch. He will be in rehab by Easter.

What a wonderful thing to wish.

In theory instigating stricter measures probably takes longer than a week to take proper effect, as it won’t stop transmissions via household members.

#DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Ymx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:17 pm In theory instigating stricter measures probably takes longer than a week to take proper effect, as it won’t stop transmissions via household members.

Two weeks on cases , three on deaths.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:11 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

"Herd immunity".

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:11 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

My theory is that as case numbers increase, more people begin to worry about vulnerable loved ones catching the virus (or indeed themselves) and so follow the social distancing rules more strictly.
That and a bit of herd immunity.

I believe that if we all lived by the golden rule, this virus would have disappeared months ago

But you're welcome to disagree

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:11 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

Gumpertz viral curve ?

Either way Thursdays lockdown won’t be the reason , if you think it is I’ve got a bridge for you to buy.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:51 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:11 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm



Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

Gumpertz viral curve ?

Either way Thursdays lockdown won’t be the reason , if you think it is I’ve got a bridge for you to buy.

I’m not asking you for what the answer isn’t......

C’mon big shot, what is happening?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:12 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:51 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:11 pm

Boooring!! “It’s nothing to do with the lockdown“

So what is the reason for the drop, Doctor?

Gumpertz viral curve ?

Either way Thursdays lockdown won’t be the reason , if you think it is I’ve got a bridge for you to buy.

I’m not asking you for what the answer isn’t......

C’mon big shot, what is happening?

Awww, you’re quite triggered by falling cases it seems.

You worried lockdown may finish before you’ve grassed on all your neighbours?

What’s the reason for a drop before the lockdown?

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:40 am

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:38 am

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:13 am



No, I’m quite capable of calling out stupid hypocrisy without a hangover. I’m guessing you believe hungover or drunk is a default position.

No, no, just surprised someone can be that angry on a message board on a Sunday morning.

What on earth makes you think I’m angry? Once again it’s probably your viewing prism rather than anything else.

I think Bimbo has a fair point.

Isn't this level of hysterical over reaction is his default position?

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Cases only dropped 2.5%, testing dropped 9.1%
Deaths went up 27.8%

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:01 am

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:57 pm #DailyCovidUpdate | 8th November 2020

Cases: +20,572
Deaths: +156 (down from 162 last week)

Week total: 2,327, up from 1821 last week.

Don’t be shy, best point out that cases have dropped 11% in the week and nothing at all to do with the lock down.

Cases only dropped 2.5%, testing dropped 9.1%
Deaths went up 27.8%

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Cases on the “from last week” fell more than 11%. Testing dropped eh ? I didn’t see you parroting the massive rise in testing when numbers were creeping up.

It’s almost like you’re picking and choosing stuff rather than honest reporting,

Cases falling. Deaths will follow.

None of it to do with the lockdown.