Re: So, coronavirus...
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:22 pm
It is, but because it's flu it was rapidly included in the annual flu virus, which prevented huge waves in the vulnerable.
It is, but because it's flu it was rapidly included in the annual flu virus, which prevented huge waves in the vulnerable.
I'm sure, but it's still wavy. It goes up in the winter and down in the summer. I was just getting sucked into debating someone I have on ignore. Viruses don't magically disappear after they've got to their designated number of waves basically.Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:22 pmIt is, but because it's flu it was rapidly included in the annual flu virus, which prevented huge waves in the vulnerable.
I think most of us got the joke.Openside wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:37 pmYou say that like it would be a bad thing??Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:31 pmThat might leave you with only nurses in the pub for company, so you might need to rethink your plan
Erm how many colours can you identify??
Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:00 pmExcept this one is vascularBimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:53 pm
A third wave would be very unusual for a Respiratory virus ....
C69 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:57 pm I've not before bothered to loom at the efficacy of vaccines.
However today I took some time out and looked at the efficacy of the flu vaccines since the 1950's and to say I was shocked is an understatement especially looking at the numbers for the last 10 years.
Potentially 90% efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is quite astounding if true when compared with the influenza vaccine.
Now that we are being tested weekly it's quite astounding how many asymptomatic staff have been and are being tested positive atm.
The lack of any symptoms whatsoever is baffling tbh
#DailyCovidUpdate | 10th November 2020
- Cases: +20,412
- Deaths: +532
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:59 pmC69 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:57 pm I've not before bothered to loom at the efficacy of vaccines.
However today I took some time out and looked at the efficacy of the flu vaccines since the 1950's and to say I was shocked is an understatement especially looking at the numbers for the last 10 years.
Potentially 90% efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is quite astounding if true when compared with the influenza vaccine.
Now that we are being tested weekly it's quite astounding how many asymptomatic staff have been and are being tested positive atm.
The lack of any symptoms whatsoever is baffling tbh
Not if you accept the theory of false positives and the PCR test sensitivity.
Tichtheid wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:03 pmBimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:59 pmC69 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:57 pm I've not before bothered to loom at the efficacy of vaccines.
However today I took some time out and looked at the efficacy of the flu vaccines since the 1950's and to say I was shocked is an understatement especially looking at the numbers for the last 10 years.
Potentially 90% efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is quite astounding if true when compared with the influenza vaccine.
Now that we are being tested weekly it's quite astounding how many asymptomatic staff have been and are being tested positive atm.
The lack of any symptoms whatsoever is baffling tbh
Not if you accept the theory of false positives and the PCR test sensitivity.
But you’d have to be immune to information to accept that.
Like I say, totally immune to informationBimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:23 pmTichtheid wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:03 pmBimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:59 pm
Not if you accept the theory of false positives and the PCR test sensitivity.
But you’d have to be immune to information to accept that.
Or be a professor at Oxford .....
I'm not suggesting to do this as a policy but production of the vaccine will likely see a long drawn out process in getting the vaccine to everybody.Saint wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:22 pmIf you're just talking about reducing deaths, then giving it to high risk/elderly first will reduce the death rate. It won't seriously impact r0 as the high risk and elderly aren't driving that number. - and there are still the concerns about Long COVIDUncle fester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:09 pm Honest question with the vaccine.
Does it need to be given to everybody?
If it's given to high risk groups at first, that alone should slow down the spread of the virus and reduce the R0 rate.
Could the virus already be under control before they get around to vaccinating everybody else?
To reach "herd immunity", you need to get to somewhere around 66%-70% immunised, ideally more. Of course by the time we get to the bulk of the population we'll be into next spring, so should be on the downslope again, and we're really talking about preventing a third wave
Production rates required for that would be insane. Could take years to achieve that level of penetration.Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:24 pmThink the estimates were 60% coverage. So 90% effectiveness would mean you want around 67% vaccinated. Probably best to aim for 75%. Given the long term effects however, you probably want to be vaccinating everyone since unless it's wiped out ( which is unlikely if it can still survive in animal populations) it's probably the healthier option.Uncle fester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:09 pm Honest question with the vaccine.
Does it need to be given to everybody?
If it's given to high risk groups at first, that alone should slow down the spread of the virus and reduce the R0 rate.
Could the virus already be under control before they get around to vaccinating everybody else?
So for life to return to normal 70% uptake i reckon. But make available to 100% for health benefits.
Lots and lots of unknowns for all of this. It's not at all clear whether people are immune, or just asymptomatic. As for the rest of it, production of any single vaccine at scale to immunise 70% of any population is tough - hence the multiple vaccine approach. But Pfizer reckon 1.2 billion doses of production by the end of next year. So that would be enough for 10% of the world's population at the moment. Assuming the Astrazeneca works as well, that looks like production and logistics scale far better.Uncle fester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:06 pmI'm not suggesting to do this as a policy but production of the vaccine will likely see a long drawn out process in getting the vaccine to everybody.Saint wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:22 pmIf you're just talking about reducing deaths, then giving it to high risk/elderly first will reduce the death rate. It won't seriously impact r0 as the high risk and elderly aren't driving that number. - and there are still the concerns about Long COVIDUncle fester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:09 pm Honest question with the vaccine.
Does it need to be given to everybody?
If it's given to high risk groups at first, that alone should slow down the spread of the virus and reduce the R0 rate.
Could the virus already be under control before they get around to vaccinating everybody else?
To reach "herd immunity", you need to get to somewhere around 66%-70% immunised, ideally more. Of course by the time we get to the bulk of the population we'll be into next spring, so should be on the downslope again, and we're really talking about preventing a third wave
Would it then be better to give the virus to the people most likely to transmit it and keep the high risk of dying people in isolation?
Wouldn't like to be in the product introduction team for that one. Stress levels would be off the scale.Production rates required for that would be insane. Could take years to achieve that level of penetration.Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:24 pmThink the estimates were 60% coverage. So 90% effectiveness would mean you want around 67% vaccinated. Probably best to aim for 75%. Given the long term effects however, you probably want to be vaccinating everyone since unless it's wiped out ( which is unlikely if it can still survive in animal populations) it's probably the healthier option.Uncle fester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:09 pm Honest question with the vaccine.
Does it need to be given to everybody?
If it's given to high risk groups at first, that alone should slow down the spread of the virus and reduce the R0 rate.
Could the virus already be under control before they get around to vaccinating everybody else?
So for life to return to normal 70% uptake i reckon. But make available to 100% for health benefits.
Herd immunity has always been a concept of vaccination. The problem with it for hust letting a virus like this run through a population is the collateral deaths......Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:40 pm
Oh I’m sure you know better. It drips from you.
This will all come out in the wash,
Anyone noticed herd immunity is back in fashion?
Saint wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:36 pmHerd immunity has always been a concept of vaccination. The problem with it for hust letting a virus like this run through a population is the collateral deaths......Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:40 pm
Oh I’m sure you know better. It drips from you.
This will all come out in the wash,
Anyone noticed herd immunity is back in fashion?
No-one doubts that we could have got to herd immunity with Covid naturally at some point. The issue was how long, and how many would die in the process
Not just how many would die, but how many would suffer life changing long term effects. Increased rates of dementia, loss of iq, tooth loss due to vascular damage, long term loss of smell, this thing is nasty in ways we're still learning about. And not a single nation is even coming close to natural herd immunity, as can be seen from the fact that a ton of people are still getting infected (let alone how many are dying) in the worst effected countries (that have reasonable records).Saint wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:36 pmHerd immunity has always been a concept of vaccination. The problem with it for hust letting a virus like this run through a population is the collateral deaths......
No-one doubts that we could have got to herd immunity with Covid naturally at some point. The issue was how long, and how many would die in the process
Modelling would suggest a third wave in late Feb to April triggered by Christmas and New Year. However severity depends on how lock downs go on for, how successful they are implemented and of course if a vaccine is available and how far it has been deployed. However it looks like a third wave of some sort if expected early next year.
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:11 pmInformation you say
How can you possibly expect to win at the Internet with that attitude??
An oldy but goody
I'd never heard of the group that tweeted that, but from a quick squint at their website they seem to be anti-lockdown, anti-mask wearing etc
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:47 pmI'd never heard of the group that tweeted that, but from a quick squint at their website they seem to be anti-lockdown, anti-mask wearing etc
Unless you’re saying they faked the letter from Matt Hancock I’m not sure what this point means.
Healthy doubt? It says that it can show a positive result after someone has recovered. You may class that as a false positive but you're gong to be on your own i suspect.Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:45 pm
I don’t think it proves anything at all , other than elements of doubt are healthy and there’s plenty more regarding the PCR sensitivity to suggest an issue with false positives even from the people who developed the methods in the first place.
By all means ignore that.
So you can be infectious several days before symptoms and up to 8 days after symptoms start, but RNA will be presentViral RNA shedding is higher at the time of symptom onset and declines after days or weeks [4]. Over the course of the infection, the RNA of the virus has been identified in respiratory tract specimens 1-2 days before the onset of symptoms and it can persist for up to eight days in mild cases [5], and for longer periods in more severe cases, peaking in the second week after infection [5,6]. Prolonged viral RNA shedding has been reported from nasopharyngeal swabs (up to 67 days among adult patients) [7] and in faeces (more than one month after infection in paediatric patients) [8]. Infectious virus has been detected up to day eight post disease onset
However, doesn't that really only mean that you were probably infectious previously?Detection of viral RNA by PCR does not equate with infectivity, unless infectious virus particles have been confirmed through virus isolation and cultured from the particular samples
That puts 10% of the "at risk" group under threat though. My (total guess) pick would be that we need to cover as much of the population as possible to reduce the risks.Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:55 pm
Or don’t bother with the population that isn’t at any risk from the virus.
A close examination of what she says actually disproves some of the points Bimbo has been trying to make, especially the point she makes over targeted testing of symptomatic people.
Thank you for making my point so well.Detection of viral RNA by PCR does not equate with infectivity, unless infectious virus particles have been confirmed through virus isolation and cultured from the particular samples
Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:45 amA close examination of what she says actually disproves some of the points Bimbo has been trying to make, especially the point she makes over targeted testing of symptomatic people.
What ?
It’s just another view about the effectiveness of testing.
Thank you for making my point so well.Detection of viral RNA by PCR does not equate with infectivity, unless infectious virus particles have been confirmed through virus isolation and cultured from the particular samples
Read the whole paper, you can’t just do a word search on a page of text and lift something you think supports your point. It doesn’t.
Stop making this about you and being right on the internet.