What's going on in Ukraine?

[geordie_6]

So all those issues which led to the coup suddenly don't matter to Wagner!?


Believe it when we see it...

[_Os_]

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."

1. He could be lying.
2. A deal has been cut which is good enough for him. Which could mean anything, including "wait a few days until there's more support".
3, Which camps are they going back to? The ones inside Russia at the airbases on the M4 they've just captured?

Hopefully this sucks Russian troops away from the Ukrainian frontline, because now they're needed to defend Moscow. But if Moscow is stacked with Russian Federation forces Putin has to be certain they're loyal, and there's no way of knowing that.

[tabascoboy]

Sounds weak, Putin has been made to look like a pussy and Prigozhin has a large bull's eye on his head. Still, this is Russia and Russians we are talking about
Unless it's disinformation from RU intended to cause a split in Wagner

[Lobby]

Lads, Moscow is going to fall in 3 days....

Be funny if this worked and Napoleon and Hitler failed.

Napoleon did actually take Moscow after Kutozov's decision that the Russian forces should retreat rather than face defeat in the field. Napoleon found there were no provisions in Moscow and couldn't feed his troops, so eventually had to withdraw in the middle of winter.

[Biffer]

Putin had to rely on his patsy from Belarus to get him out of trouble. Fatally damaged.

[Hugo]

Lads, Moscow is going to fall in 3 days....

Be funny if this worked and Napoleon and Hitler failed.

Napoleon did actually take Moscow after Kutozov's decision that the Russian forces should retreat rather than face defeat in the field. Napoleon found there were no provisions in Moscow and couldn't feed his troops, so eventually had to withdraw in the middle of winter.

Indeed. The Russians burned Moscow down.

[C69]

Whose side are we on now lads. Hard to keep up

Neither Putin nor Wagner.

Pussy Riot for me

[Flockwitt]

The EU has approved a big expansion of artillery ammunition production.

[Hal Jordan]

Whose side are we on now lads. Hard to keep up

The choice is Bad Aids or cancer.

Those Wagner guys are fucking animals.

[Ymx]

Well, that turned in to a damp squib.

Wtf.

Why exactly did this Wagner guy stop?

Was hoping the russkies would wipe themselves out.

[fishfoodie]

I don't see how the hot dog guy gets to stay alive after this ?

Other people have been murdered for far less, & now he's gone beyond talking shit about underlings; He's challenged the authority of the head cunt, & made him look weak, by scurrying away to St Petersburg, he has to die.

The Ukrainians will probably start to get regular updates on the hot dog guys location from now on, just so he'll get taken out by HIMARs, & the cunt can give him a lavish state funeral like Rommel got.

[fishfoodie]

Pity really, I'd a nice bottle of wine ready for the Celebration, & then those Russian cunts let me down.

[Ymx]

It would surely be suicide to stop the advance at this stage.

Rumours suggesting it’s not the case, that it has stopped.

I’m confused.

[tabascoboy]

Back to business as usual then

[laurent]

What a complete clusterfuck

[tabascoboy]

All's fair in love and war, eh?

[Tichtheid]

It would surely be suicide to stop the advance at this stage.

Rumours suggesting it’s not the case, that it has stopped.

I’m confused.

A multimillion dollar Swiss bank account and retirement on an island of one's choice can be a tempting choice.

I don't know if that has happened of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is what made the leaders of the mercenaries stop.

[geordie_6]

What a complete clusterfuck

Useless fuckers can't even manage a coup effectively.

[tabascoboy]

[Enzedder]

I am as disappointed as a Chiefs fan, seeing those two results overnight.

[Hellraiser]

This is possibly the best possible outcome. Putin is fatally undermined, but it's a slow kill; and now every oligarch out there will be throwing all the cash possible at building PMCs for personal safety. The fallacious farce that is Russia is going to fall apart.

[Ymx]

[_Os_]

The problem with the claims of "Prigozhin will go to Belarus" and "Wagner fighters will sign contracts", is under which authority is this all supposed to happen and who is enforcing it? If Prigozhin and Wagner decide they're not going to do that, then what?

Before Prigozhin pulled back Russia was less than a day away from serious armed conflict between ethnic Chechens and ethnic Russians in Rostov (good luck to anyone trying to convince ethnic Russians the Chechens are the good guys), and quite possibly defections from the Russian Federation side to the Wagner side it whatever was about to happen in Moscow (as is rumoured to have happened on the road to Moscow).

This is the sort of thing that starts happening in places where the state loses its monopoly on the use of violence. If Prigozhin/Wagner just refuse to follow orders, there's no way to force them to comply without Russia risking the situation it just stood back from. There's multiple groups in the Russian force structure which are mini fiefdoms, that only need to find their own Prigozhin. Putin has organised the military this way on purpose, because a unified competent command would be an alternative power centre and a threat to him, so he has weakened the Russian state instead.

Putin's strength is being able to referee all the factions he has created. If he can't be the referee because there's no respect for him, then it's game over for him. Prigozhin surely doesn't go from being 200km from Moscow to billeted in Belarus waiting to be killed, because Putin definitely needs him dead asap.

[_Os_]

This is possibly the best possible outcome. Putin is fatally undermined, but it's a slow kill; and now every oligarch out there will be throwing all the cash possible at building PMCs for personal safety. The fallacious farce that is Russia is going to fall apart.

Even Gazprom the oil company has a PMC at this point.

I've never seen a country as primed for a civil war as Russia is now, and I've spent my life following African politics.

[GogLais]

Whose side are we on now lads.

Truth, honesty and justice.

[tabascoboy]

For this to work logically there has to be more of a quid pro quo, such as preventing any possible rebellion in Belarus or more likely opening a new front in the north/west of Ukraine since Lukashenko won't commit to that.
IDK if the whole of Wagner has to relocate with Prizoghin though or goes back into Donbass, as they are clearly needed in action and not twiddling their thumbs while the counter-offensive spins up.

With so much obvious factionalism and irrationality I'm buggered if I know what's going on really

[fishfoodie]

The problem with the claims of "Prigozhin will go to Belarus" and "Wagner fighters will sign contracts", is under which authority is this all supposed to happen and who is enforcing it? If Prigozhin and Wagner decide they're not going to do that, then what?

Before Prigozhin pulled back Russia was less than a day away from serious armed conflict between ethnic Chechens and ethnic Russians in Rostov (good luck to anyone trying to convince ethnic Russians the Chechens are the good guys), and quite possibly defections from the Russian Federation side to the Wagner side it whatever was about to happen in Moscow (as is rumoured to have happened on the road to Moscow).

This is the sort of thing that starts happening in places where the state loses its monopoly on the use of violence. If Prigozhin/Wagner just refuse to follow orders, there's no way to force them to comply without Russia risking the situation it just stood back from. There's multiple groups in the Russian force structure which are mini fiefdoms, that only need to find their own Prigozhin. Putin has organised the military this way on purpose, because a unified competent command would be an alternative power centre and a threat to him, so he has weakened the Russian state instead.

Putin's strength is being able to referee all the factions he has created. If he can't be the referee because there's no respect for him, then it's game over for him. Prigozhin surely doesn't go from being 200km from Moscow to billeted in Belarus waiting to be killed, because Putin definitely needs him dead asap.

Putin has zero intention of abiding with the official deal.

In reality he'll seek to liquidate Prigozhin in the most painful way possible, & the guys he's going to pardon are going to be at the pointy end of the spear for the rest of this little squabble, until they're all dead.

[Flockwitt]

The whole thing stinks from the get go. You don't order somebody's arrest when they've got twenty odd thousand battle hardened fully armed professional soldiers around them, along with the sympathies of a big chunk of the army and citizens.

[Niegs]

If Prigozhin goes to Belarus, is there a chance that they launch a new offensive from the north of UKR?

[tabascoboy]

So after hours of radio silence from the Pro- Putinists and vatniks yesterday, suddenly they appear now to claim this was a brilliant staged manoeuvre as a test of loyalty.

I invite them to contact me, as I have a bridge I'd like to sell...

[Biffer]

So after hours of radio silence from the Pro- Putinists and vatniks yesterday, suddenly they appear now to claim this was a brilliant staged manoeuvre as a test of loyalty.

I invite them to contact me, as I have a bridge I'd like to sell...

The way the Putin fanboys are selling this as a success is hilarious. Yeah, if you wanted to look like the strong man of Russia, you’d really set up a plan where your renowned toothless patsy Lukashenko sorts it out for you.

[_Os_]

3, Which camps are they going back to? The ones inside Russia at the airbases on the M4 they've just captured?

[Biffer]

Integrating them into the Russ armed forces is all well and good, but if Prigozhin were to call on them to rise up and follow him I’d bet they still would, and they’d bring others with them.

Always worth remembering that Gorbachev survived a coup but ended up resigning four months later.

[_Os_]

The whole thing stinks from the get go. You don't order somebody's arrest when they've got twenty odd thousand battle hardened fully armed professional soldiers around them, along with the sympathies of a big chunk of the army and citizens.

Exactly. Has a Trumpist 4d chess feel to it

It's real. Wagner downed valuable Russian air assets, Russian Federation air force bombed valuable oil storage facilities. There's other small details that give it authenticity, Wagner tanks on the low loaders had their crews riding with them, Wagner columns were large with a mix of vehicles (not just military vehicles for show).

If it was a psyop they wouldn't have chosen to destroy assets it's hard to replace and would've sacrificed some conscripts instead. Putin is a mad dictator not far off shuffling imaginary units around a map in his bunker, of course he tried to exercise authority when he had none. It's the same as when he ranted and lectured the African leaders on the peace mission over where the final borders should be, if they shrugged their shoulders disagreed and went home, Putin couldn't do anything and loses more friends.

[Biffer]

The whole thing stinks from the get go. You don't order somebody's arrest when they've got twenty odd thousand battle hardened fully armed professional soldiers around them, along with the sympathies of a big chunk of the army and citizens.

Exactly. Has a Trumpist 4d chess feel to it

This constant theorising that there's some kind of organisation or player behind things is a desperate psychological need for someone that be in control. Because people are terrified that random things might happen or that there could ever be situations that are out of control.

[tabascoboy]

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Well according to those in the know this was a CIA backed plot and Prigozhin and Putin shared a $6 billion bribe ( that recent discovery of a surplus $6 biliion was convenient eh?!) between them after playing the US for suckers

The biggest argument against this being a ploy is surely that none of this charade (going right back to Prigozhins rants starting months ago) would have been needed in order to achieve the actual apparent outcome. Russia / Belarus / Wagner are not good faith actors reliant on keeping voters happy, they can do whatever they damn well choose to do. Putin could dismiss Shoigu and Gerasimov if he wanted to play the strong man without looking like he's been forced into going along with Prigozhin. Prigozhin could have kept quiet and struck a deal with Lukashenko to set up a base where he can be a free agent with Putin's tacit agreement while giving Putin a henchman to keep the squeeze on Lukashenko. Russia could have offered the same incentive to Wagner scum for being enrolled into the regular army and getting better soldiers than mobiks or conscripts. Russia could arrange with Wagner to redeploy wherever they want if the price is right....etc etc

It's just trying to apply rational acts to known irrational people. Where is the official narrative that "Hey! We had you all going there, right?!" Honestly don't believe the Kremlin knows how to spin this. Knowing more now about who might be disloyal in a crisis is just a lucky spin-off.

It was rather curious following the opinions of public Russian personas yesterday while the events around Wagner unfolded. Those who are naturally close to Kremlin - various military reporters with millions of followers who recently attended a meeting with Putin, they rallied around the president.

But others appeared much more emotional. Many had wild mood swings, they genuinely believed something was about to happen, and in one way or another put their bets on Prigozhin. With the ending being so anticlimactic, I wonder how many are now finding themselves in a battle to recover their image.

This is the first time I've seen so many calls and prayers to God to help Russians in this situation. They were on the edge. It could have ended very, very badly. My impression is that Lukashenka literally saved Putin's life by convincing Prigozhin that going after him would lead to a disaster for both Kremlin and Minsk regimes.

I think that many will be left with an unpleasant aftertaste. The situation around the shot-down aircraft will be a heavy anchor going forward. And the lack of public statements is indicative of the struggles each side is facing.

[tabascoboy]

While Putin secured another day to breath air even as a lame duck the whole episode showed us another constant in this Russia.

Cynicism and nihilism

You can be a traitor in the morning and pardoned in the evening, even when you kill a range of Russian soldier, the very few who held the line while the rest of the army disappeared into nowhere. And yes, I stand by what I said yesterday because it was fact. There was no more Russian army. The command structure was inexistent, by design, because this is exactly what defines cynicism and nihilism. There is no protocol, ideology or even honor, there is only survival and in this process people can turn from your friends to your enemies and vice versa, whatever helps the situation at the moment. You as an individual do not exist and when you perish it is all your fault for making the wrong decisions at the wrong time, just like those 6 Russian pilots who were blown out of the skies over their own home homeland.

Far worse is situation for the non-ethnic Russian population, when it comes being cannon-foddered, because they are welcome scapegoat for all the hardships for living in such conditions. When Wagner was rolling through the Russian oblasts yesterday trying to locate Shoigu, Pro-Wagner channels were excessively using ethnic slurs, pointing out his Tuvan heritage. It was not about Shoigu’s incompetency, which is all over the place. He as Tuvan was their scapegoat of their failed system. It was exactly this racial undertone which drove them, especially when they talked about “genocide against the Russian people”. When reflecting that minorities are making the brunt of losses of the Russian army, it paraphrases that shameless lies all but shameless to them.

This is why the countries which were formerly under control by the Kremlin fought for their freedom and independence and achieved at least separation. Some succeeded even more and gained relative peace, as we saw with the Baltics. Some have been caught in new nightmares as we see in some Turkic states. Others were caught somewhere in between and Ukraine was one of them. A state with a history full of tragedies and again under threat being vassal, but this time by one of their own. And this is when the Maidan in 2014 took place. Ukrainians have endured every foreign atrocity and where not willing to accept the atrocity by one of their own. This was an affront against a dictator like Putin whose very system can only survive in this atmosphere and it could not stand in the Kremlin’s eyes. This is the only reason why this war exists. Some call it a fight democracy vs. autocracy, but for me it is a fight for law vs. arbitrariness. This is why I from time to time quote the 2nd US President, John Adams:

“A republic of laws, not men.”

What we saw yesterday in Russia was the travesty from which laws should protect us, because when people can decide the faith of millions based on a whim, then terror is the only result.

I for one will not stop to continue my struggle for freedom for anyone, anywhere. The possibility why I can do this today was granted by people who did this for me, before I was even born. It is a gift I can never be too thankful. I will continue this fight so that our children can live to do the same. This is our duty as freedom-loving people who have freedom and liberty handed over. We have to draw the line so that nihilism and cynicism cannot get hold of us and we can and will achieve this for as long as we do not stop pursuing this goal.

[Flockwitt]

The whole thing stinks from the get go. You don't order somebody's arrest when they've got twenty odd thousand battle hardened fully armed professional soldiers around them, along with the sympathies of a big chunk of the army and citizens.

Exactly. Has a Trumpist 4d chess feel to it

It's real. Wagner downed valuable Russian air assets, Russian Federation air force bombed valuable oil storage facilities. There's other small details that give it authenticity, Wagner tanks on the low loaders had their crews riding with them, Wagner columns were large with a mix of vehicles (not just military vehicles for show).

If it was a psyop they wouldn't have chosen to destroy assets it's hard to replace and would've sacrificed some conscripts instead. Putin is a mad dictator not far off shuffling imaginary units around a map in his bunker, of course he tried to exercise authority when he had none. It's the same as when he ranted and lectured the African leaders on the peace mission over where the final borders should be, if they shrugged their shoulders disagreed and went home, Putin couldn't do anything and loses more friends.

I suspect I'm being miss-understood here. By saying it stinks I'm not conspiracy theorizing. I'm thinking somebody else is playing to their own agenda. There are much smarter ways the Kremlin could have handled this. What I think is likely happening is that Putin's absolute power is now fraying and decisions are being made he has to deal with rather than somebody asking nicely for permission first.