What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Informative podcast with @DAlperovitch reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine. " They certainly had hopes that the Russians would not be as deeply as entrenched as they are...It's really, really tough going, they're taking enormous casualties."

"the debate in western capitals...is often framed in the context of lands, how much land is Ukraine going to take back...debate in Ukraine is actually very different. The fundamental issue they're focused on...is how do we end this war in a way where we have durable security?"

Alperovitch: "We're meeting with someone very senior in [Ukraine's] MoD. And we asked them what are your needs. And this person said: I have just five needs and they're shells, shells, shells, shells and shells."

Alperovitch: "part of their [Ukraine] pitch to Sweden is to say...we can show you combat experience, we can do the marketing for your Gripens. Just give them to us and we'll show you how they do against Russian Air Force. They'll be great for future marketing of your aircraft."

Alperovitch: "one of the things that they [Ukraine] are very insistent on is that they want detailed manuals...for those systems so that they can maintain them to large extent themselves... we'll figure it out, we can resolve the IP issues, just help us help ourselves."

Alperovitch: "The Ukrainians...don't think that Wagner is in Belarus. They think that maybe a few dozen people have gone into Belarus. Some of them have come out since then. They don't think that Prigozhin is based in Belarus." Ukraine thinks not many Wagner signing MoD contracts

Alperovitch: "the other thing that the Ukrainians told me is that they don't think that MoD is paying salaries for Wagner anymore ... the Ukrainians believe that those payments have now stopped." Ukrainians also "don't believe that Surovikin is in jail."

Alperovitch: "the Ukrainians believe that there were some Russian pilots that ignored orders to strike the Wagner column as it was on its way to Moscow, that many in the Russian military and Rosgvardiya did not want to shoot at Wagner. And that's clearly a problem for Putin..."

Alperovitch: Ukrainians assess that operational leadership in general staff were not in favour of war. Nor was SVR. "FSB, right in the lead-up to the war, was quite luke-warm....at one point, they say that in their [FSB] briefings to Putin, Putin unloaded on them."

Alperovitch: Ukraine believes Russia "want to cause, at some point, some sort of explosion, potentially in the cooling pool [of ZNPP] where nuclear fuel rods is stored, in order not to necessarily spread radiation [but] use it as nuclear blackmail, to threaten Europe..."

Alperovitch: "Ukrainians believe that about 20,000 new [Russian] recruits are being pulled every single month. So that's providing replacement troops, after training, to be used in Ukraine...that may give them some options to delay the more general mobilisation wave"

Alperovitch: "the other thing we've learned is that [Russian] production capacity is increasing...they're believed to be producing at least a million artillery shells a year and targeting significantly more—targeting over 2mn, but the Ukrainians don't believe they'll get there."

Rob Lee:" Ukraine has not made as much territorial gains as they would want. But the thing that is quite significant & we can't really measure v. well is attrition. And there's clearly a lot of attrition going on, it's not very clear how the relative attrition is playing out..."

Rob Lee: "Russia can stand attrition in convict units pretty easily because they can replace them. If the naval infantry units or if spetsnatz brigades take heavy casualties, that could be a problem for the ability to defend going forward..here's a lot of things we can't see."

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast ... and-wagner

[Hellraiser]

Now we're heading into mid-summer it's a good time to take stock and wonder just where this is headed. The attrition grind is working, but it's slow. The Ukrainians are taking constant losses, though they're learning how to minimize these while inflicting maximum damage on the Russians. Still they're fighting a war in way nobody would particularly want to, having to use their troops like men on point drawing the sniper's fire.

Unfortunately I can't see any breakthrough before the autumn rains come in October. Not unless the Ukrainians are willing to pay the price in direct casualties for massing their troops. The issue with this modern war, concentrations of troops are punished. The question is I suppose if the Ukrainians can do enough damage over the next month to weaken the Russians anywhere specifically to allow a more major pitched battle type offensive with tens of thousands of troops involved. But do they even try? Is what we're seeing now going to be the norm ongoing, a slow step by step, hill top by hill top grind. Once the rains hit it'll be all they can do regardless.

Estonian military intelligence, which tends to be among the most accurate, seems fairly certain that the Russians are close to having exhausted their remaining reserves and are now unable to rotate units out of the front. At Bakhmut in particular the VDV is being bled dry. Combined with the severe damage Ukrainian deep strikes with Storm Shadows have done to the command and logistics structure, they believe Ukraine is "close to a bigger kind of success".

[tabascoboy]

Orignal text from Joe Barnes, Daily Telegraph's Brussels Correspondent

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace made unwanted headlines with his comments about 'gratitude' and 'Amazon' over Western aid to Ukraine, but his press briefing at Nato contained some fascinating, and largely unreported, intel on Kyiv's counter-offensive. 1/

Wallace dismissed concerns over the pace of Ukraine’s offensive. He said Kyiv’s forces were ‘advancing every day’, but had been somewhat slower than expected because Russia's lessons learned and they've adapted accordingly. /2

Ukrainians have been forced to dismount from their Western-supplied vehicles and wade through dense Russian anti-tank minefields on foot, Wallace said, because Kyiv's lack of 'combat engineering capabilities', often under heavy fire from Russian drones and artillery. /3

Having adapted, Moscow's forces now lay mixed minefields, combining anti-personnel and anti-tank mines to further slow any Ukrainian advance. Russia is also learning, and adapting its forces, to deal with new, long-range weapons introduced onto the battlefield, Wallace added. /4

Ukraine is attacking on three main axes (Bakhmut, Orikhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka), Wallace said. 'The main line of defence at some parts, the Ukrainians are only 300 metres away,' he added, 'Instead of there being lots of Russians behind those lines, there aren’t.' /5

Wallace said Ukraine hadn't yet committed reserves from its 12 offensive brigades, the majority of which were trained and armed by Nato allies. He said Kyiv hadn't yet made a choice on what potential axes of attack to 'really pile it on' in an attempt to breach the lines. /6

On UK-donated Storm Shadow missiles, Wallace said in one recent hit on a Russian ammunition dump, shown by 'open source', Ukraine had destroyed 2,500 tonnes of ammo. He didn't confirm where but video from Makiivka, seven miles east of Donetsk, showed a vast explosion. /7

On future security guarantees for Kyiv, Wallace said: 'You could expect more British troops in Ukraine after this conflict than you did before.' He suggested these troops would be as part of 'capacity building' training missions, building on operations Orbital and Interflex. /8

Interestingly, Wallace confirmed Kyiv had asked Britain to manufacture 'some capabilities' in the UK, without confirming what they are for security reasons. 'Ukraine has asked us to make them but you know, after this conflict, we would inevitably move them back into Ukraine.' /9

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1680 ... 42240.html

[fishfoodie]

Interesting thing in this video of the Russians that aren't being resupplied, is the complaints that their comrades died sitting in their grad waiting for coordinates. Ukraine have got the time a target is acquired to an artillery unit firing on that target, down to about 10 minutes to 15 minutes. Russia is at well over an hour to do the same task. It means in an artillery duel with the more accurate artillery and the better munitions Ukraine has, Russia ends up being at a disadvantage. End result here was some burnt Russians buried beside the road and their comrades making an angry Telegram vid.

It shows just how bad their resupply is, that they're burying their dead !

Think about it. The normal process would be to put the bits in body bags & wait for the next resupply, & truck them out on them. That way the families get the remains, & Moscow signs off on their deaths so they get the death benefits. This is what these guys would want for their comrades.

If they're burying them, it's because they don't have body bags, & they know there's no chance of resupply, & the stench after a few days at high summer means they have to bury them.

[_Os_]

Now we're heading into mid-summer it's a good time to take stock and wonder just where this is headed. The attrition grind is working, but it's slow. The Ukrainians are taking constant losses, though they're learning how to minimize these while inflicting maximum damage on the Russians. Still they're fighting a war in way nobody would particularly want to, having to use their troops like men on point drawing the sniper's fire.

Unfortunately I can't see any breakthrough before the autumn rains come in October. Not unless the Ukrainians are willing to pay the price in direct casualties for massing their troops. The issue with this modern war, concentrations of troops are punished. The question is I suppose if the Ukrainians can do enough damage over the next month to weaken the Russians anywhere specifically to allow a more major pitched battle type offensive with tens of thousands of troops involved. But do they even try? Is what we're seeing now going to be the norm ongoing, a slow step by step, hill top by hill top grind. Once the rains hit it'll be all they can do regardless.

Estonian military intelligence, which tends to be among the most accurate, seems fairly certain that the Russians are close to having exhausted their remaining reserves and are now unable to rotate units out of the front. At Bakhmut in particular the VDV is being bled dry. Combined with the severe damage Ukrainian deep strikes with Storm Shadows have done to the command and logistics structure, they believe Ukraine is "close to a bigger kind of success".

Even at this pace with nothing else changing, Ukraine will have made 10km deep holes in parts of the Russian lines by September compared to June. Which is why there's reports of Russia trying to build a third line of defences in some places, they're preparing for the first and second lines to be breached. They can't keep building new defencive lines further back, without losing the strategically import places they're defending.

From all the footage and analysis I've seen, it looks like Russia have amassed a huge defence of mines and trench works. But what's manning those fortifications is less than impressive and there's signs even those troops are under supplied. Russia has an impressive quantity of artillery, but they don't have quality, and Ukraine is doing everything it can to remove their quantity advantage.

I'm still backing a Russian collapse/Ukraine breakthrough, probably late September (cannot remember what my original pick was, or if I made one). Still backing my original pick for Crimea to be in play by late 2023/early 2024.

[_Os_]

Interesting thing in this video of the Russians that aren't being resupplied, is the complaints that their comrades died sitting in their grad waiting for coordinates. Ukraine have got the time a target is acquired to an artillery unit firing on that target, down to about 10 minutes to 15 minutes. Russia is at well over an hour to do the same task. It means in an artillery duel with the more accurate artillery and the better munitions Ukraine has, Russia ends up being at a disadvantage. End result here was some burnt Russians buried beside the road and their comrades making an angry Telegram vid.

It shows just how bad their resupply is, that they're burying their dead !

Think about it. The normal process would be to put the bits in body bags & wait for the next resupply, & truck them out on them. That way the families get the remains, & Moscow signs off on their deaths so they get the death benefits. This is what these guys would want for their comrades.

If they're burying them, it's because they don't have body bags, & they know there's no chance of resupply, & the stench after a few days at high summer means they have to bury them.

Good point, fishfoodie.

[tabascoboy]

Another high ranking RU officer gone, happened at the beginning of June but only just discovered and reported

Colonel Maksim Kharlamov, commander of the 96th separate reconnaissance brigade

Evidence of the liquidation of the Russian colonel was made public in the propaganda media. So, on July 14, a publication appeared in Russian publications that on July 13 a ceremony “to perpetuate the memory” of Kharlamov took place in the military unit of Nizhny Novgorod.

“On June 4, he tragically died in the line of duty,” the Russian media said .

[tabascoboy]

Pour encourager les autres?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Pour encourager les autres?

The problem is there is no competent autres to replace them.

[tabascoboy]

Putin's war, huh?

"Hello. We’re the mobilised from the 85th Brigade. Together with us are also contractors whose contracts ran out, but they’re still fighting here with us, now for 10-11 months.

We’d like to say that during all this time, we’ve been mobilised for 7-8 months, we always unconditionally completed all orders at fronts near Kreminna and Belohirivka, without fear.

But now, we’ve been thrown to Bahkmut to unprepared unmined positions, with a drunk company commander who led us to these positions. We didn’t reach them, we were shelled with tanks, mortars, Polish missiles.

We came to the company commander and explained that we won’t pass there. We came across employees of PMC “Hurricane” who were leaving those positions, they were the first with losses.

They explained to us that we’re simply suiciders, we won’t pass there. To which the company commander said we needed to complete the order. But as we’re the mobilised, not stormtroopers or spetsnaz, without ammo, without food, without evacuation, without vehicles, we were thrown in like stormtroopers.

We refused, only laying down weapons by the order of the Brigade commander, under threats of shooting, accused of betrayal, and threatened with imprisonment.

We didn’t reach those positions. We are now sat in Svetlodarsk, in some strange building. But as they didn’t take away our phones, we’re trying to record a video for our relatives who could help us.

We do not refuse to fight, we can take weapons again, but not in this direction, and not in the first line of defence. As I already said, we always followed our orders without being afraid, under mortar and enemy bullets.

But now, after this time, we’re simply defeated psychologically by our command. We don’t even have medals for the SMO, we were not given any payments. By the way, our salaries come late and not in full.

There’s no rotation, no rest provided to us. So that’s what it is. And we’re now accused of betrayal and cowardice forgetting about our previous achievements.

We were sent there without artillery and aviation support which are unable to suppress the enemy fire. We came under shelling, and after all that happened, the commander, answering why our artillery and aviation were silent, said there’s no ammo - “Go die an honourable death”.

But we’re not suiciders, we’re simple mobilised, workmen, just like anyone else.

We were called P.O.W.s and threatened with killing, threatened to be sent to Storm units containing unprepared people, or sent back to the zero line. But we’re simply afraid that our commanders will shoot us there.

We do not refuse to serve and complete combat tasks, just not in this direction, not on the first line, and not with these commanders."

And from another "woe is us" from the potentially to-be-widows

Our soldiers do not refuse to serve. They love their country and are ready to fight. They only ask for one thing, that there be clarity ... We hope for your humanity that we will be heard."

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that Staromaiors'ke has been retaken.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/14/ ... ls-reveal/

[Hellraiser]

“We now have a shortage of personnel in the manufacturing industry - 660,000 people. This is just what the Ministry of Labor sees. It is clear that this is with the SVO, and those things related to mobilization ... ”, - said Vasily Osmakov, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.

According to him, it is also necessary to more clearly articulate the country's policy in the migration sphere, and not only in terms of bringing in personnel.

“And we need to get really into human-gathering. The key should be to stop the outflow of personnel and the influx of personnel, despite everything that is happening now in the country, in the economy. Therefore, clear programs for the repatriation and return of compatriots are a very important thing,” Osmakov added.”

[Hellraiser]

[geordie_6]

Some information on Twitter indicating that the Crimean bridge qas attacked again, possibly with naval drones, with one span destroyed.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

One span of the highway part of the Crimean Bridge has been destroyed and cannot be restored - Deputy Prime Minister of the Ruzzian Federation Husnullin.

"One rail track of the bridge has minor damage."

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Some much for all torpedo nets, mine fields, & surveillance systems the Orcs had put in place after the 1st attack.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

And just when Ukraine has received DPICMs....

[tabascoboy]

Attack on the Kerch bridge causes the usual blame-mongering and recriminations within RU agencies



Full text in easy-to-read format: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1681 ... 56224.html

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

A bit sobering in terms of expecting any acceleration in the speed of advance but we can hope that lessons are being learned and that everyone has to be rather more patient




And as usual the full easier to read text: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1681 ... 77697.html

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Seems to have been a bit of miscommunication in the tank numbers the Russians have in the north east. Cherevaty said they have 900 armoured vehicles of all types, not 900 tanks. The figure initially reported always seemed odd to me, given confirmed Russian losses.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

c 230km from the front line

[Dinsdale Piranha]

I hadn't tried for a while but nitter.net is operating again for people wanting to view twitter content without an account.

https://nitter.net/

[_Os_]

The Russians bragging that the were going to pull out of the grain deal. Erdogan and Zelensky took them at their word.

The Russians are cunts and targeting Ukrainian civilians. They've gone after Ukraine's power infrastructure, but that means confined locations and Ukraine have beefed up air defence for those locations. Russia tried to send Ukrainians through winter in the cold to break them and failed. The next logical move is to try and destroy their agri industry, which is more distributed and therefore harder for Ukraine to defend. That means binning the grain export deal and bombing all grain infrastructure.

Much like their dumb idea that exporting primary resources like gas and oil makes them masters of Europe (it does not, it can be bought elsewhere etc). They're going to discover something else about markets, there's buyers as well as sellers. A lot of the African peace delegation's 10 points were about the agri sector. Most African countries don't import much wheat and don't have it as a staple (SA's staple is maize), but less wheat will raise prices generally, and there's also the fertilizer issue. Then there's the African countries which do rely on wheat (Arab countries in the north), like Egypt which was part of the African peace delegation. Egypt imports massive amounts of grain from Ukraine and Russia, when the price of bread goes up in Egypt their security services start worrying about a revolution. Which is probably why Egypt agreed to be a subordinate in an SA headed peace delegation doomed to failure, they're fucking desperate.

The thing about Egypt is they also have a massive military they're never going to use because they're never going to fight Israel and Israel is never going to fight them (well if it's happening it won't be any time soon). So if Putin goes through with this, Egypt will have a higher bread price, but will have mountains of military equipment to bargain with. Egypt will have also told Putin not to do this. Egypt has well over a thousand Abrams as just one example, way more gear than most European countries. Algeria has 500+ T-90s.

"Stop Ukraine exporting grain" doesn't work out so well, when north Africans depend on it, they're heavily armed, with the only possibility of them accessing grain again cheaply is Ukraine winning.

The first part of my prediction has come true, Russia has pulled out of the grain export deal and has started bombing grain export infrastructure in Odesa. Expect that to become a wider campaign where they target whatever agri infrastructure they can. Lets hope the second part of my prediction comes in and the North Africans and/or the Arab League get dragged in.

"Massive Russian attack on Odesa last night.
X-22 and Oniks missiles hit a grain and oil terminals: reservoirs and equipment damaged, a fire started.
A blast wave damaged residential buildings. At least 6 people, including a 9 year old boy, were injured
Ukrainian air defense shot down an X-59 missile near the shore. It fell in one of Odesa districts, creating a large crater and damaging buildings around it. Three people were injured.
Two industrial objects and two warehouses were hit in one of the districts. One person injured.
Eight Shahed drones shot down in Odesa region. Fragments damaged hotels and injured two people."

[tabascoboy]

Russian AA/artillery unit received 6 Tunguska air defence vehicles from MoD, likely from long conservation followed by major repairs - as a result, all six vehicles are disfunctional.

In the full version of the video, the reporter states that upon reception, three vehicles were running but after a 30-km march all broke down with major suspension problems, another two suffer from armament control system malfunctions, and a sixth is too dangerous to even start.

None of the six transport-reloading vehicles (TZM) were functional either.