NPR

Don't know if this has been covered, but read that the Australian government has cancelled a billion dollar order for 50 million doses of an Australian vaccine because people involved in the trial returned a false positive for HIV. Sounds weird to say the least. How on earth could that happen?

frodder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 10, 2020 5:27 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:12 pm

Cockneys and Southerners causing issues apparently. Tier 3 them all

I remember when they set out what the reasons were for being in tier 3 the immediate thought was every major conurbation would be straight in at the top end, and then somehow London wasn't.

The ongoing policy seems to be based on the idea of doing the least we think we can get away with

US approves Pfizer vaccine.

Virus found in Italian boy, 4, in November 2019

An Italian boy aged four contracted Covid-19 as far back as November last year, Italian scientists believe, in a discovery that could rewrite the timeline of the pandemic.

The finding would suggest the virus circulated in Italy far earlier than thought. The pandemic was not officially detected until late February.

It could alter understanding of when it entered Europe from China, where it is thought to have originated. Until now, it was thought Europe's earliest detected case was a 43-year-old from Paris who fell ill in December.

Researchers said: "Long-term, unrecognised spread of Sars-CoV-2 in northern Italy would help explain, at least in part, the devastating impact and rapid course of the first wave in Lombardy."

But a swab taken in December revealed the presence of Covid-19, according to Milan State University, which published its finding in the Journal of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

It would suggest the boy was Italy's "patient zero" and not a middle-aged man from Codogno in the north, found infected with Covid-19 in February.

The swab was among 39 retrospectively tested by scientists who noticed patients thought to have measles had contracted something else.

The finding would push back by three months the emergence of Covid-19 in Italy. The boy had not been abroad around the time he fell ill, suggesting he contracted it in Italy.

It is likely to be seized on by China, which has aggressively pushed the theory that it did not originate in Wuhan.

Beijing has been accused of covering up when and where the virus emerged.

However, northern Italy has strong travel and trade links with China.

A recent study suggested the virus may have entered Italy in September 2019, while another found traces of the virus in sewage in Milan and Turin in December.

Italy's death toll from Covid-19 is 62,000, the second highest in Europe after the UK.

The Telegraph

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/30 ... ember-2019

I see that the UK Astrazenaca Oxford Covid vaccine is to be combined with The Russian Sputnik jab for trial. UK and Russian scientists are to explore whether vaccines given together improves efficacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -for-trial


Apparently, the Russians are running trials on delivery of the vaccine via umbrella tips.

The Druid wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:05 am I see that the UK Astrazenaca Oxford Covid vaccine is to be combined with The Russian Sputnik jab for trial. UK and Russian scientists are to explore whether vaccines given together improves efficacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -for-trial


Apparently, the Russians are running trials on delivery of the vaccine via umbrella tips.

We have to got to Salisbury for it...

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:36 pm

The Druid wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:05 am I see that the UK Astrazenaca Oxford Covid vaccine is to be combined with The Russian Sputnik jab for trial. UK and Russian scientists are to explore whether vaccines given together improves efficacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -for-trial


Apparently, the Russians are running trials on delivery of the vaccine via umbrella tips.

We have to got to Salisbury for it...

Mexico have just announced they have developed a vaccine based on Tequila.
I'm taking that with a pinch of salt though.

That joke left a sour taste in my mouth.

The Druid wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:05 am I see that the UK Astrazenaca Oxford Covid vaccine is to be combined with The Russian Sputnik jab for trial. UK and Russian scientists are to explore whether vaccines given together improves efficacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -for-trial


Apparently, the Russians are running trials on delivery of the vaccine via umbrella tips.

That would be the Bulgarians tbh

I see that Charlie Pride will be kissing an angel in the morning, thanks to Covid.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/entertai ... 2htT9u2TZU

Longshanks wrote: ↑Thu Dec 10, 2020 10:37 pm Don't know if this has been covered, but read that the Australian government has cancelled a billion dollar order for 50 million doses of an Australian vaccine because people involved in the trial returned a false positive for HIV. Sounds weird to say the least. How on earth could that happen?

Thusly:

The UQ vaccine candidate used a protein and adjuvant platform, containing the COVID-19 spike protein and a "molecular clamp". A small component is derived from the human immunodeficiency virus, known as HIV, that is not able to infect people or replicate.

A source with knowledge of the clinical results said although the HIV protein fragment posed "absolutely no health risk to people", they had identified that some trial participants who received the vaccine produced a partial antibody response to it.

Full article

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 56mju.html

+3000 deaths for the 4th week in a row and now a steady rise in cases back to over 20k per day for the last week too.

I see Covid as a bit like the cocaine trade.

Young people know there is very little risk to them dying while doing coke & it's much more fun that staying home on Friday. However they don't think about the innocents who are suffering/killed while they indulge. TBF I didn't give a shit in my 20s about exploited Colombian farmers or cartel victims either.

People perceive risk based on how it may affect them, nothing new in that.

FWIW my group of largely late 20s friends are taking a bit of care pre Christmas - people are aware that they could pass it on.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:20 am +3000 deaths for the 4th week in a row and now a steady rise in cases back to over 20k per day for the last week too.

Cases is a worry.

What’s the excess deaths ?

Does anyone talk about Sweden anymore? Seems a bit worrying over there.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:27 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:20 am +3000 deaths for the 4th week in a row and now a steady rise in cases back to over 20k per day for the last week too.

Cases is a worry.

What’s the excess deaths ?

From the ONS - it;s a couple of weeks out of date due to the time taken to collate the figures

The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 November 2020 (Week 48) was 12,456; this was 79 fewer deaths than in Week 47.
In Week 48, the number of deaths registered was 20.3% above the five-year average (2,099 deaths higher).
Of the deaths registered in Week 48, 3,040 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 24.4% of all deaths in England and Wales; an increase of 343 deaths compared with Week 47.
Of the 3,040 deaths involving COVID-19, 2,637 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (86.7%).
Of the 2,693 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 285 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (10.6%).
The number of deaths in hospitals, care homes, private homes and other locations was above the five-year average in Week 48.
In England, the total number of deaths decreased from 11,675 (Week 47) to 11,645 (Week 48); all English regions had a higher number of deaths than the five-year average for the third week in a row.
In Week 48, there were 2,820 deaths involving COVID-19 in England while the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in all English regions except the North West of England.
In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased from 223 deaths (Week 47) to 218 deaths (Week 48), while the total number of deaths in Week 48 was 151 deaths higher than the five-year average.
We estimate that the number of deaths actually occurring (rather than registered) in Week 48 in England and Wales was between 11,277 and 13,922.
The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 27 November 2020 was 14,106, which was 2,329 deaths higher than the five-year average; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 48, 3,371 deaths involved COVID-19, 331 deaths higher than in Week 47.

Basically we're running around 20% over the 5 year average. with Covid deaths accounting for approximately a quarter of all deaths

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:27 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:20 am +3000 deaths for the 4th week in a row and now a steady rise in cases back to over 20k per day for the last week too.

Cases is a worry.

What’s the excess deaths ?

Dunno yet, ONS data lags by ~2 weeks.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:44 am Does anyone talk about Sweden anymore? Seems a bit worrying over there.

Yeah, lots of people that liked to place Sweden on a pedestal have stopped now. Gone into a bit of a lockdown, cases and deaths going up. No evidence that I can see of any sort of herd immunity.

Raggs wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:37 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:44 am Does anyone talk about Sweden anymore? Seems a bit worrying over there.

Yeah, lots of people that liked to place Sweden on a pedestal have stopped now. Gone into a bit of a lockdown, cases and deaths going up. No evidence that I can see of any sort of herd immunity.

Their case rate is up at 7-8000 a day at the end of last week, that's the equivalent in population terms of the UK having 45-50,000 cases per day. Total deaths now at about 74 per 100,000, compared to UKs 94.

Intersting analysis by Yaneer Bar-Yam describing difference in pandemic responses.

'I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years. There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).
Summarizing:
1) Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.
2) Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)
3) Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community
transmission (green zone strategy, including localized “fire fighting”).
4) Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal
economic activity.
5) Focusing attention on the few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsight-
edness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.
6) Incorrectly thinking that this is a steady state situation where balance between counter forces must be maintained versus a dynamic situation in which rapid action can shift conditions from a bad losing regime to a good winning one.
7) Naive economic thinking of a tradeoff between economics and fighting the virus, ver- sus realizing a short time economic hit will enable opening normally and restoring the economy (as recognized by McKinsey, BCG, IMF and other correct economic analyses)
8) We have to “live with the virus” versus we can eliminate the virus and return to normal social and economic conditions.
9) Waiting for high-tech vaccination to be a cure all, versus using right-tech classic pandemic isolation/quarantine of individuals and communities to completely stop transmission
10) Considering the virus as primarily a medical problem of treating individuals and individual responsibility for prevention of their own infection, versus defeating the virus as a collective effort based in community action, galvanized by leaders providing clear information, a public health system engaging in community-based prevention of transmission, and the treatment of patients is, by design, as limited as possible.'

Seems spot on?

NHS beginning to really struggle now. Beds are busy, A&E getting busier and staffing becoming a real problem. Lots of folk in NHS are really knackered, struggling to cope and need a break. Its only going to get worse over the next few weeks and months. Modelling suggests a significant 3rd wave in January/February. Don't do anything stupid guys - stay safe - a vaccine is coming soon. Don't be an arse - wear a mask, stay apart, don't meet up in poorly ventilated environments and wash those hands.

I’m sure bimbot will be here in a second to tells us that you’re wrong and the NHS is coping with plenty of capacity.

London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

Only for a few days though, after which they're encouraged to travel the country.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

I bloody hope not
Low numbers in my neck of the woods not so South of the county

I like neeps wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:30 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

Only for a few days though, after which they're encouraged to travel the country.

Starting in two weeks time.

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:33 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

I bloody hope not
Low numbers in my neck of the woods not so South of the county

I’m in North Herts. 107 cases per 100k so relatively low compared with country average of 144 per 100k.

(From BBC page)

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:39 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:33 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

I bloody hope not
Low numbers in my neck of the woods not so South of the county

I’m in North Herts. 107 cases per 100k so relatively low compared with country average of 144 per 100k.

(From BBC page)

Me too fingers crossed!

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:48 pm

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:39 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:33 pm
I bloody hope not
Low numbers in my neck of the woods not so South of the county

I’m in North Herts. 107 cases per 100k so relatively low compared with country average of 144 per 100k.

(From BBC page)

Me too fingers crossed!

Herts will be placed in the same boat as Essex?

Cases going up quite quickly in Edinburgh as well it seems.

As an aside, my wife got pinged by the Scottish trace app this morning about someone she was near last Sunday so told to isolate for 2 days. Seems a little late.

If you want to see Covid infection rates at a more granular level than the BBC, there's a really good interactive map here - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map - which gets down to LTLA and MSOA levels. For instance I can see that the small town and the village next door have 6 cases across approx 10,000 people

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:09 pm I’m sure bimbot will be here in a second to tells us that you’re wrong and the NHS is coping with plenty of capacity.

It never has plenty of capacity in December.

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:37 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:30 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:28 pm London, Essex and Hertfordshire heading for Tier 3, if reports of Police bigwigs meeting the Government are anything to go by.

Only for a few days though, after which they're encouraged to travel the country.

Starting in two weeks time.

Again with the Dumb from our leaders If this is true. The open/close yo-yo causes more case than leaving things sensibly controlled and open. Lots have a “last hurra” and a “yay open” night out . New Year’s Eve will be a nightmare of house parties too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55306928

Covid: London to move into tier 3 as infections rise

Largest city in Western Europe locking down just a few days before Christmas - this will be carnage

frodder wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:05 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:48 pm

ScarfaceClaw wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:39 pm
I’m in North Herts. 107 cases per 100k so relatively low compared with country average of 144 per 100k.

(From BBC page)

Me too fingers crossed!

Herts will be placed in the same boat as Essex?

Not all of either of the counties according to briefing that Hancock has given to London, Herts and Essex MP's

Parts of Essex and Hertfordshire are also moving into tier 3, Matt Hancock told MPs on a call.

Statement due in the House within the hour

I'm assuming Watford - SW Herts where I am isn't too bad

What part of Herts are you from PB and SaintK? I used to live there many years ago and loved every minute of it

frodder wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:42 pm What part of Herts are you from PB and SaintK? I used to live there many years ago and loved every minute of it

Rickmansworth - and according to Matt Hancock I won't be leaving any time soon.

Had plans for a few days walking on Dartmoor - fortunately refundable accommodation but feel for the business, would have been a nice pre-Christmas earner.