NPR

MrMojo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:13 am

Blake wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:08 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:03 pm News out of SA looking a bit grim

Indeed. Expecting a massive spike in deaths over the next 2 weeks.

I'm anticipating Northern Italy numbers as hospitals in the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng reach capacity.

Things at least trending down in the Western Cape, although our limited testing strategy is skewing the data somewhat.

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:57 am

MrMojo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:13 am

Blake wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:08 pm

Indeed. Expecting a massive spike in deaths over the next 2 weeks.

I'm anticipating Northern Italy numbers as hospitals in the Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng reach capacity.

Things at least trending down in the Western Cape, although our limited testing strategy is skewing the data somewhat.

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Won’t be the last one across the Developing World.

Slick wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:11 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:57 am

MrMojo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:13 am

There was a news clip on BBC from PE that showed a hospital in a state of collapse. Doctors and nurses had abandoned it basically. Looked horrendous.

Won’t be the last one across the Developing World.

Not the thread for this really, but the commentary coming out of SA at the moment is incredibly pessimistic for the future, even from people that are usually relatively upbeat. Load shedding, SAA etc with COVID looking like it might be the spark for some serious upheaval

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:12 am My huge network of SA friends over here would concur with that downbeat assessment, I'd imagine.

Smutley wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:01 pm Winter is coming

Smutley wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:01 pm Winter is coming

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:30 pm

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

Really quite baffling. For me:
1) People are actually following social distancing pretty well. Not perfectly obviously but there is much less contact between people, generally people will try and leave space between each other, mask wearing on the tube is pretty well observed etc.
2) Our numbers were wildly inflated by the care homes and now they are to an extent off limits the transmission, and particularly the deaths, is going to reduce.
3) Greater incidences of asymptomatic cases? The numbers remained stubbornly high for a while so if there is a large element of asymptomatic carriers then maybe a lot more of us have had it than we think.
4) The age of people out and about. My local pubs are pretty busy, however normally there is a very mixed age range in there. At the moment you see almost no one out over 40. The 'old man pub' hasn't opened at all. Anecdotally my parents and their friends by and large are doing social gatherings in each other's gardens etc so probably at lower risk.
5) Linked to the above but the average weight of those out and about. The obese have clearly been scared shitless.
6) Wfh = being healthier? Less virus circulating round the office aircon, healthier lunches, time for a walk etc. Maybe we're picking up fewer coughs/colds etc full stop.

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:54 pm Do you think there is anything in the herd immunity theory? Not just from Covid-19 but other coronaviruses?

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:13 pm There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:13 pm There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:13 pm There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:31 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:13 pm There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:39 pm 1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:22 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:06 pm So any theories on why the UK hasn't seen a second wave yet?
Going out today life seems to have almost returned to normal.
So busy on the roads
And plenty of people in Halfords. Is this the calm before the storm?

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:39 pm 1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:39 pm 1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:23 pm There's also staff in the pub who shout at you to "STAY IN YOUR SEAT" or "HURRY TO THE TOILET WITHOUT SLOWING OR STOPPING". Like being back in school again.


Pubs used to be expensive, but fun. Now they're just expensive.

Jock42 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:56 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:23 pm There's also staff in the pub who shout at you to "STAY IN YOUR SEAT" or "HURRY TO THE TOILET WITHOUT SLOWING OR STOPPING". Like being back in school again.


Pubs used to be expensive, but fun. Now they're just expensive.

Its been great, no masses at the bar trying to get served and jumping the queue.

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:49 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:22 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm

People understand 'second wave' wrong. If it kicks off again now, it's still the first wave. A second wave is six or twelve months down the line.

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:31 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:13 pm There’s about a 1 in 3,000 chance of meeting an infected person in the UK... spend less than 15 minutes indoors at a pub and you’re bloody fine. Ffs

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:49 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:22 pm

How have you decided that? What makes that a second wave and not still the first one?

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

You don't think perhaps Fauci is talking about the USA? Where they aren't having a second wave, since they are still in the first one.

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:10 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:49 pm

I’m basing it on what Anthony Fauci and others have said

You don't think perhaps Fauci is talking about the USA? Where they aren't having a second wave, since they are still in the first one.

Do you think we’re out of our first one in the UK? Or anywhere in Europe?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:00 pm Bimbot has been telling us since March it’s almost impossible to catch Covid. Like really impossible. He’s a fuckwit.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:30 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:31 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:15 pm

If there are 40 other people in the pub, that drops to 1 in 75. No thanks.

You’d have to go some to get within 2 metres of 40 people for 15 minutes. It’s a fairly simple process.

That's a very dangerous assumption to make. There are regular cases of super-spreaders who infect dozens of people in a working day. There was a bar in Florida where >50 people, Staff, & Customers got infected over one weekend.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:39 pm 1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

Longshanks wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:51 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:39 pm 1 in 2300 in England. So closer to 1 in 60 in the pub.

And if we all take that attitude anyway, there'll be more in a couple of weeks regardless.

No there won’t.

And if you remove Blackburn you’re back to about 1 in 3,000. Apart from that spot on.

And ffs , buy your drinks and sit in the pub garden, almost no risk at all.

It's a fair point. I think in Surrey 40 confirmed cases. That's 1 in 30000.