NPR

Hellraiser wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:24 pm

Port of Odesa last night from the bridge of a civilian ship. Like something out of a film or video game. More than likely Gepard fire.

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:48 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-67838996

Guess we know why it was so quiet on the missile front recently. Zero military benefit for all that outlay though.

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

The problem is this: For the West, negotiations are a means of ending the war. For Russia, they are a means of winning it.

Putin recognizes this mismatch and is eager to exploit it. I'm not sure all Western policymakers understand it, however.

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:53 pm Western arms manufacturers and their political friends won’t slow down supplying Ukraine while Putin pretends to make nice. Too much cash to be made.

No-one seriously believes Vlad is serious about pulling back.

ASMO wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:20 pm

The Putin-ally and member of the United Russia party, Vladimir Egorov, has died at the age of 46 after an accident involving him falling out the window of his third-floor apartment in the city of Tobolsk

The Russian authorities are investigating what caused his death

Sure it death by falling out of a window

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 7:26 pm Also priced into this for the west is Tawain. If the USA fold on Ukraine a lot of people will think they can go screw themselves on Taiwan when China takes control

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 1:59 am That’s not actually correct about the Chinese stuff. The new gear they’ve got coming down the track is good. Their digital tank works, unlike Russia’s, and their intended doctrine is modern usage, to sit kms from the front line, not to spearhead. The Chinese new light tank is specifically designed to be able to fight in Himalayan terrain. Can shoot up at a far higher angle than traditional tanks, can go over sandy ground and operates in low oxygen air. The Chinese have come at this planning from a blank sheet for decades into the future. They are the reverse of the hidebound Russians.

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am ... heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

Hellraiser wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:31 pm In case anyone is wondering about what actually happened in Belgorod today, the damage was caused by debris from Russia's own AD intercepting Ukrainian drones, with at least one S-300 missile malfunctioning and itself hitting the city.

Of course Russia is trying to deflect from this as hard as it can.

Responsibility for what happened today in Belgorod lies squarely on Putin and his supporters. And I’m not necessarily referring to the fact that Russian S-300 in their own typical way of being Made-in-Russia garbage hit their own people. It goes far beyond than that.

This entire war was doomed to come back to Russia. It was Moscow where this war has been conceived and here we have the results. From a 3-day “special operation” to a full scale war where hundreds of thousands Russians already perished. Now when Russians completely lost control of things, it was only a matter of time that it will hit them.

Russian calls for “vengeance” are as dumb as they are redundant. They don’t need excuses to murder, they already murder as they please. They can only convince the last uncertain one in the West that peace can only be established by completely annihilating the Russian army in Ukraine and the surrounding border area. Hitting Kharkiv right now is as self-defeating as it can be. It won’t shatter Ukrainian resolve, in the contrary. The Ukrainian nation has never been so unified and determined. They will do whatever is necessary for their freedom and independence.

tc27 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:01 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

Its also teaching some old lessons - you need to be able to build thousands of artillery shells each month - harks back the the 'shell crisis' of 1915. Artillery dominance = battlefield dominance.

Armies are going to have to think seriously about cost effective drone defense - radar guided machine guns/20mm cannons/laser ETC will probably be needed at company level (one per 100ish men or 1-12 vehicles).

Attacking enemies in prepared positions without total air and artillery dominance is still very difficult.

Calculon wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 3:42 am

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

the Chinese have a lot of rockets and the capability to build loads of drones. their Navy is a bit shit though. Their economy is also highly reliant on exports, and unlike russia, on imports of food and energy.In the case of an attempted invasion of Taiwan it is within Taiwan's allies ability to severely disrupt those imports and exports, to the extent their economy might well collapse. If this happens the Chinese, who are usually "natural born serfs" might well start to get very rioty (see end of covid restrictions), which is what really worries the CCP.

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:05 pm Ah yes Russia, the true upholders of international law trying to lecture others...

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:22 am

Calculon wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 3:42 am

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:55 am The Chinese are building for a combined arms effectively professional force by 2035. They are well aware of their issues. I can’t comment directly on the optics quality but the intended use of the new systems is as you’ve described.

Mind you. I think the Ukraine war has shown us the future. Drones and more drones and unmanned vehicles. You still need boots on the ground though and heaven help the side that loses airspace superiority.

I wonder about the future of tanks. A better investment is long range precision artillery able to shoot from out of sight.

the Chinese have a lot of rockets and the capability to build loads of drones. their Navy is a bit shit though. Their economy is also highly reliant on exports, and unlike russia, on imports of food and energy.In the case of an attempted invasion of Taiwan it is within Taiwan's allies ability to severely disrupt those imports and exports, to the extent their economy might well collapse. If this happens the Chinese, who are usually "natural born serfs" might well start to get very rioty (see end of covid restrictions), which is what really worries the CCP.

What should worry them is in an age of global warming China has some glacial water, but not a lot, and then not much else in the way of water supply. And that has been a question for a while now, what happens when nations start going to war for water, oil makes some makes some odd choices, but if you needed water you might make odder ones still.

really every other problem can come after they're about to run out of water, or so you'd think but still they look to massively increase use of fossil fuels. long term thinking in an autocracy my arse

Calculon wrote: Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:12 am

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:05 pm Ah yes Russia, the true upholders of international law trying to lecture others...

The Czechs had a good response to this

Many of the Russian missiles, which get destroyed in Ukraine, are detected by the highly sophisticated radar units of multiple air defense systems, such as the MIM-104 Patriot, IRIS-T SLM or NASAMS. The performance of those radar units is excellent. All 10 Russian Khinzals have been eliminated this morning. But it does not end here.

Radar units such as the AN/MPQ-53, the Sentinel radar or the Hensoldt TRML-4D are collecting vast amount of data which are invaluable for further improving those already excellent radar systems. Any potential buyers of Russian missiles will not only realize that the Russian tech is inferior but also that NATO and its allies are in possession of all collected data, rendering those Russian missiles useless if the enemy possesses Western technology.

Nevertheless, even the best radar system needs missiles and this is why the West has to deliver more of them. Ukraine is a huge country and with the current number of air defense systems it isn't possible to cover all areas. We have to close every gap. We have to do far more.

Raggs wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 am I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Biffer wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:52 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 am I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Biffer wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:52 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 am I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Raggs wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:28 am

Biffer wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:52 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:42 am I'm still of the belief that Western countries don't want Ukraine to win. They just don't want them to lose. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets and perhaps more importantly, stays weak.

Isn’t that what’s needed for Ukraine to win though? Russia has to be substantially weakened or they will just wait a few years and come back again?

Ukraine doesn't win whilst the war is ongoing. The longer Russia is engaged with Ukraine, the more of a "win" it is for other western countries in a sense. If Russia is so clearly outgunned that they lose all the land back to Ukraine in a season, then they go back, lick their wounds and rebuild. If they instead never quite lose, but have to constantly throw more people and equipment into the grinder, the bigger long term "win" for the west.