What's going on in Ukraine?

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Flockwitt
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tc27 wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:44 pm
Flockwitt wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:13 pm The question people should be asking as we come up to two years of the war is if and how Ukraine can win. They need aid, military and non-military, and manpower. The West has barely flexed it's muscles here in terms of what they could provide. But if they don't actually make an effort the grind of war will wear on Ukraine... after two years it is already wearing on Ukraine.
Not sure I agree completely with this narrative. The history of the last half of the 20th century is that the grind phase in the end favors the defender who just need to outlast the political will of the invading opponent to keep fighting a war of choice.
I agree with the general point - except that this is not a guerrilla war. There are unique political and cultural forces at play here, along with an utterly merciless opponent. And that's my concern, there is a perhaps miss-placed assumption that Ukraine can continue this indefinitely regardless of what happens to the will of the West to aid it.

It's an issue I've been pondering, wondering if/when Russian war weariness, sanction weariness, will make an impact. What is the Russian internal losing proposition...
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Guy Smiley wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:08 am I get a pretty gloomy feeling about the Ukraine situation...

I know Ukraine have made some impressive advances and managed excellent, long range damaging hits, but Russia seems set to grind this out for years if need be. I worry that battle fatigue will set in and / or support will fade, especially from the US. I know various European leaders have warned of this very thing and are urging continuing vigilance and fair enough, this on their doorstep... but I don't see an end in sight unless something fundamental shifts and serious damage is inflicted on Putin and Russia.
I assume this war will end the same way that the Cold War (and WW1 for that matter) ended - "it's the economy stupid"! It will most certainly grind on for quite some time, but it will be the economic collapse of Russia (or Putin falling out of a window) that will end it.
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Russian channels like “Zhest Belgorod” distributed videos and pictures of missile fragments, which damaged civilian properties in Belgorod.

However, once they realized that those were the booster sections of 23Ya6 missiles of the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system, they deleted them.
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Prisoner exchanges have resumed; 230 Ukrainian POWs were released today including some of the Snake Island garrison and national guardsmen taken prisoner near Chornobyl. Some of these men have been POWS since February 2022.

Among the returned are 130 AFU, 55 National Guard, 38 Border Guards, 1 policeman, and 6 civilians. Several were listed as MIA. They were exchanged for 248 Russians.
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Germany's latest military-aid delivery to Ukraine has been reported and it has interesting newcomers. Here are the following items:

- 1x Skynex air defense system with ammunition
- 10x Marder 1A3 IFV
- 2x Hensoldt TRML-4D air surveillance radar units
- Undisclosed number of IRIS-T SLM Missiles
- Undisclosed number of Leopard 2 ammunition
- 9,080x artillery ammunition (155mm)
- 2x "Wisent 1" Mine-clearing vehicle
- 1x "Biber" Bridge-layer vehicle
- 10x ground surveillance radars GO12
- 30x drone detection systems
- 3,350x helmets
- 10x Zetros trucks
- 3x truck tractor trains 8x8 HX81 and an additional semi-trailer
- 34x various vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
- 305x assault rifles MK 556
- 750,000x small arms ammunition
- 1,152x winter camouflage nets
- 2,000x winter camouflage ponchos

In planning/execution:

- 4x IRIS-T SLM air defence systems
- 1x Skynex air defense system with ammunition
- 8,000x Anti-Tank mines
- 20x drone detection systems
- 41x Mercedes trucks
- 26,850x combat helmets
- 4,695x assault rifles MK 556
- 450,000 rounds for small arms

This is indeed a long list with some very useful items. If we continue like this and throw in the TAURUS then we are on a good track.

Source: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/ ... ne-2054992

#Ukraine #Germany
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archive.ph
Propaganda is Failing. I admit, Russian channels have felt a… | by Na…
7 - 9 minutes

Nadin Brzezinski

I admit, Russian channels have felt a tad on the slow motion the last few days. It’s like everybody is waiting for orders. Or everybody is waiting for something to happen and has no idea how to respond. However, there is also a feeling that people are no longer buying it, which matters.

I also wonder if many of the remaining subscribers to the Z channels are those of us in the West monitoring them. Or is it the core of a group of Russians who want to believe? But I thought it was very significant because we have seen this. The last time Russia collapsed, trust in official media dropped precipitously. So here we are:

Russians stopped believing in military propaganda. Z-channels are losing subscribers en masse, and political talk shows are losing viewers

One of the main results of 2023 was a growing distrust of propaganda, We Can Explain found. Residents of the country are less and less interested in Solovyov’s programs, Z-channels on Telegram are losing subscribers, and the main propaganda sites are losing their audience.

👎 The rating of Vladimir Solovyov’s show fell by one and a half times. By the end of 2022, the top 100 most popular programs in Russia (audience 4+ according to Mediascope) included 5 propaganda talk shows, and the highest was “An Evening with Solovyov”: 14th place with a rating of 3.6%. A year later, Soloviev is still more popular than his fellow propagandists, but only in 35th place with a rating of 2.1% (a drop of more than one and a half times).

👎 Views of propaganda sites have collapsed , statistics from the LiveInternet service show. Among the main victims are RIA Novosti, Komsomolskaya Pravda and Izvestia. Over the course of a year, they lost between 9 and 20 million visitors. In December 2023, 60 million unique users visited the RIA website, and in December 2022–75 million. Lenta.ru was visited by 54 million people last December (a year earlier — 63 million). The biggest losses are at Komsomolskaya Pravda. If in December 2022 107 million users visited the KP website, then a year later — only 87 million.

👎 Users are massively unsubscribing from Z-channels. The losses began after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup in June. The most unsubscribes are from “military correspondents,” who lose almost 1 thousand people a day, according to TgStat data. Thus, the WarGonzo channel (Semyon Pegov) has lost more than 200 thousand subscribers since June (from 1.3 million to 1.09 million). Evgeniy Poddubny had similar losses (minus 170 thousand over six months). Yuri Kotenok has lost more than 50 thousand subscribers. And the “military correspondent” of VGTRK Alexander Sladkov has ceased to be a millionaire altogether — in July he had 1.08 million subscribers, now there are only 944 thousand.

At the end of the year, sociologists recorded that Russians in general were tired of the war , and ending it was their main wish for 2024.

Now, anybody familiar with the 1991 Soviet collapse will certainly see the parallels. Back then, jokes started about the usefulness of both Pravda and Izvestia. Granted, this came from Glasnost, which is now gone.

So, are we seeing a similar pattern? I think it’s a good guess because people are dying. And at this point, people are tired of the war. One of the first signals of this is precisely a loss of trust in what the government is saying.

This is a society where nothing is true, and everything is possible. I still recommend that book, but in this case, nothing is valid, with the loss of subscribers being a strong noise signal. I kept making analogies to an ice flow. This is creaking even more noisily.

So, are we slowly moving away from this nightmare? It’s indeed a good question because this would be the end of Putin. And that is the truth. He will pay a heavy price for this war. Remember, he fears to die like Qaddafi did. That left an impression on him.

But then we have this from a school in Moscow. Remember, they are working hard to establish a new state, and Kadyrov is part of it:

Schoolchildren were given “Akhmat is power” mugs for the New Year.

This is a gift from Kadyrov’s men to fourth-graders from school №14 in Kolomna, Moscow Region, because the children “for a long time” made trench candles and camouflage nets for them. In addition to the mugs, the children received Milky Way chocolates.

Now I have a question. Isn’t a Milky Way an American candy? Speak about double messages. The decadent West is terrible. We reward you for weaving netting, which is standard in wartime, but we give you chocolate from the main adversary.

My head hurts. Talk about contradictions in the message. But who am I to judge? I’m sharing it because it’s the other end of the propaganda. So adults are getting it, while kids are exposed to metric tons of it.

I will close with two more. Both involve food, to a point. Here is the first:

In the Republic of Tyva, stores with cages like those in the poorest African countries were built for the local population. The majority of the population lives there below the poverty line.

But on TV they will always talk about the Decaying West and the need for war in Ukraine.

The photo attached to the message is very telling. It’s not a modern store. It’s more like what you find in very rural areas. There is a correlation between people having access to internal plumbing and service in the army.

This is one of the poorest regions in the federation. And they probably believe they are doing far better than people in London or New York City. Propaganda is a powerful thing.

And before you say it, yes, we have issues. But nothing close to these regions, and we should do better.

Now, let’s look at the last episode with eggs, shall we?

​News of getting up from your knees — “egg fever” continues in Russia. The Russian Federation begs for eggs in countries near and far abroad, 318,000 eggs were purchased from Turkey.

In the 24th year of Putinism, it suddenly became clear that agriculture was at the bottom. Who would have thought!

It’s the last sentence that brings me back to the first post. It’s a full circle to the glorious days of Soviet collapse in 1989. One reason for that collapse was the failure of Soviet agriculture.

So it seems we are coming full circle to those days. If the egg issue is isolated, rumors of bird flu are one thing. But given other failures, including trains breaking down, I can undoubtedly see regions not wanting to export these goods to the other areas.

Again, this is 1989 all over again. And we are watching it happen all over again. The other parallel to 1989 was the Soviet pullout from Afghanistan. The cost of that war was orders of magnitude lower than the Ukraine conflict. But like that war, this one is now entering the consciousness. As I type this, Belgorod is getting pounded again. There are a few more targets in Crimea and one in the Kuban. We wait to see what the targets hit, but here is a map of at least the southern targets.

Rumors are that Valery Gerasimov bought the farm, but I can’t find any confirmation. So rumors remain. And given the nature of the Federation, we’re still playing with multiple rumors that Putin is dead, and the doubles…and I mean multiples, not one. This also involves a version of Politburo 1957 after the death of Stalin. Why do I share it? Rumors are strong in Russia. Russian conspiracy makes QAnon look almost normal. This is the kind of society we are dealing with.
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tabascoboy wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 8:52 pm
Not a single foreign fighter that has enlisted in the Ukrainian military has been prosecuted by any country, including those that proscribe service in foreign militaries. On the other hand several countries have explicitly forbidden their citizens from fighting for Russia, including nominal allies of Russia, i.e. Cuba.

Can't see much take up from anyone bar a complete idiot, as most Western vatniks are either social media grifters and/or contrarian losers, who don't actually believe the shit they spew and have absolutely no desire to give up their Western standard of living for incontinent grandpa Tsar's Potemkin farce, if he's even still alive.
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Pro-Russian channels confirm that in yesterday's strike against the Russian airbase in Saky around 23 Russian soldiers were killed, among them 5 high ranking members and 9 from the special forces.

The same channels complain that the Russian air defense in the Russian-occupied peninsula has been severely degraded, enabling more strike of that kind in the future.

Source:
[EDIT] Tendar advises source may not be 100% reliable here
I want to revise this post after being notified by Dmitri (@wartranslated). I quoted Crimea Wind, which is usually quite solid, but they used a Pro-Russian source which is rather dubious. The actual number of casualties is unclear. It could be less, and it could be more.

All what we know for certain so far is that the airbase of Saki has been hit. Everything else is speculation. Sorry for the confusion.
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_Os_
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For those wondering how it's going, this link graphs a lot of the Oryx visually confirmed losses data. The Oryx list is open source, all the photos/videos used in the count can be looked at, if doubles are found they're removed:
https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

The visually confirmed losses do start telling the whole story over time. The story they're telling is that Ukraine has inflicted losses on Russia at a consistent rate for two years now.

Russian losses are on the exact same trajectory they have been since the start of the war. Russia is on 2.6k visually confirmed MBT losses, that'll reach 3k in the coming months on the established trend, which is all the MBTs Russia originally went in with. What has been replacing those MBTs is refurbished (even more) obsolete MBTs that are literal museum pieces elsewhere in the world. Two years from now Russia is looking at around 6k visually confirmed MBT losses if nothing changes, that'll leave them with only with whatever hulks they've refurbished which will be useless (no advanced optics, sitting ducks for well armed infantry and light armour).

Ukraine had no large breakthrough during the counter offensive in the end. But it did keep attrition at a favourable rate. Which means Russia has no chance of doing much, even with everything in its favour at the start of the war Russia struggled to advance 50km, Russia has now lost 75%+ (probably something close to 90%) of that initial invasion force which was all their best men and equipment. The chances or Russia doing anything more than digging fortifications is near zero. Russia' lacks the small unit training to make this a good strategy for them (Ukrainians in fortifications tend to take the initiative more), but it's all they can do now.

Russia has gone from volunteers from prisons, to conscripting prisoners. They're now targeting soccer hooligans for recruitment. They're now also visually confirmed to be using North Korean armaments. We've all just got used to how bizarre the stuff coming from the Russians is, everyone forgets there was some strange coup but not a coup last year. This is no way to run a war, if Ukraine maintains the pace of destruction it has then eventually Russia collapses.

So no big Ukrainian win from the counteroffensive. But it hardly looks like a Russian win.

The next big thing will be the F-16s arriving. If Ukraine could manufacture air dominance in part of the frontline for a short period, then a lot could change. Russia has been losing aircraft suspiciously far from the frontlines recently, some of those losses look like the Ukrainians surprising the Russians with Patriot deployments (they lose a grab bag of stuff all in one go, in a sector far from the frontline). if the goal was to make bubble where Ukraine's air force was free to operate, it would mean knocking out Russian radars/AA in the general area but also shooting down Russian aircraft further back (given how low they're all flying I have no clue how possible this is). Russia's renewed large scale air assaults are perhaps about forcing Ukraine to use AA missiles on defence that would otherwise go towards this.

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_Os_
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_Os_ wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:50 pm Russia has gone from volunteers from prisons, to conscripting prisoners. They're now targeting soccer hooligans for recruitment. They're now also visually confirmed to be using North Korean armaments. We've all just got used to how bizarre the stuff coming from the Russians is, everyone forgets there was some strange coup but not a coup last year.
And now I see this this. All totally normal.

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Good posts there Os, those graphs are telling more so simply because we can see for ourselves just what's been going on with Russia's ongoing pressure in Avdiivka and elsewhere and the losses incurred. Shame we don't have accurate figures for the relative artillery status - not just losses but replacement rates et al.

A bit of fluidity around the F-16s, Denmark's stated theirs won't be delivered till second quarter 2014.

The problem for Ukraine is how to regain some initiative. We'll just have to see what happens with the mobilisation under discussion in their parliament. This is tricky and could very well be the first genuinely unpopular move of the war internally depending on how it's implemented. Decision due next week.
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Flockwitt wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:36 pm Good posts there Os, those graphs are telling more so simply because we can see for ourselves just what's been going on with Russia's ongoing pressure in Avdiivka and elsewhere and the losses incurred. Shame we don't have accurate figures for the relative artillery status - not just losses but replacement rates et al.

A bit of fluidity around the F-16s, Denmark's stated theirs won't be delivered till second quarter 2014.

The problem for Ukraine is how to regain some initiative. We'll just have to see what happens with the mobilisation under discussion in their parliament. This is tricky and could very well be the first genuinely unpopular move of the war internally depending on how it's implemented. Decision due next week.
I wonder if Turkey might not have shown where the opportunity lies, by closing the Bosporus ?

The Black Sea fleet isn't very big, & Ukraine has already sunk it's flagship, a few other surface vessels, & a submarine in dry dock. There are reportedly two subs in the Med, but they can't go back to Crimea, so are stuck outside. If Ukraine can nibble away at the remaining replenishment ships, they can fuck up Russia's ability to re-provision at-sea, forcing the subs back into port, then they might be able to kill a few more.

The subs are probably how they've planting mines, & have also been used as a platform for firing cruise missiles, so if they cull their numbers, they'll make it harder for them to stop their grain shipments, & they'll seriously hurt Russia's prestige around the entire region.

Without their ships, Russia would have to use it's air force more, & they've been notable by their absence, & if they have to commit to more operations, they'll have more losses, & from what I've been reading the Russians have more aircraft than pilots, so they're now losing the instructors, not just the students, & that'll be very hard to come back from.
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Serbian mercenary in the Russian army, Dejan Berić, complains that Russians from the 119th brigade treated other Serbs like cattle, called them gypsies, and beat a number of them. The command of the brigade sent the mercenaries into assaults without ammo and offered to collect some during the battle.
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What's with the Belgorod video?

Are they shooting down their own shit again or something? Just seems out of character for there to be large amounts of Ukrainian missiles flying over a Russian city!!
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_Os_ wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:50 pm For those wondering how it's going, this link graphs a lot of the Oryx visually confirmed losses data. The Oryx list is open source, all the photos/videos used in the count can be looked at, if doubles are found they're removed:
https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

The visually confirmed losses do start telling the whole story over time. The story they're telling is that Ukraine has inflicted losses on Russia at a consistent rate for two years now.

Russian losses are on the exact same trajectory they have been since the start of the war. Russia is on 2.6k visually confirmed MBT losses, that'll reach 3k in the coming months on the established trend, which is all the MBTs Russia originally went in with. What has been replacing those MBTs is refurbished (even more) obsolete MBTs that are literal museum pieces elsewhere in the world. Two years from now Russia is looking at around 6k visually confirmed MBT losses if nothing changes, that'll leave them with only with whatever hulks they've refurbished which will be useless (no advanced optics, sitting ducks for well armed infantry and light armour).

Ukraine had no large breakthrough during the counter offensive in the end. But it did keep attrition at a favourable rate. Which means Russia has no chance of doing much, even with everything in its favour at the start of the war Russia struggled to advance 50km, Russia has now lost 75%+ (probably something close to 90%) of that initial invasion force which was all their best men and equipment. The chances or Russia doing anything more than digging fortifications is near zero. Russia' lacks the small unit training to make this a good strategy for them (Ukrainians in fortifications tend to take the initiative more), but it's all they can do now.

Russia has gone from volunteers from prisons, to conscripting prisoners. They're now targeting soccer hooligans for recruitment. They're now also visually confirmed to be using North Korean armaments. We've all just got used to how bizarre the stuff coming from the Russians is, everyone forgets there was some strange coup but not a coup last year. This is no way to run a war, if Ukraine maintains the pace of destruction it has then eventually Russia collapses.

So no big Ukrainian win from the counteroffensive. But it hardly looks like a Russian win.

The next big thing will be the F-16s arriving. If Ukraine could manufacture air dominance in part of the frontline for a short period, then a lot could change. Russia has been losing aircraft suspiciously far from the frontlines recently, some of those losses look like the Ukrainians surprising the Russians with Patriot deployments (they lose a grab bag of stuff all in one go, in a sector far from the frontline). if the goal was to make bubble where Ukraine's air force was free to operate, it would mean knocking out Russian radars/AA in the general area but also shooting down Russian aircraft further back (given how low they're all flying I have no clue how possible this is). Russia's renewed large scale air assaults are perhaps about forcing Ukraine to use AA missiles on defence that would otherwise go towards this.

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Good post. Thanks man :thumbup:

I'm too lazy to look so maybe you know off-hand. Whats the deal with the disconnect in the Ukranian aircraft losses graph? A correction of some kind? Double counting corrected?

Regarding the F16's coming into play. Air dominance for Ukraine would be awesome. The Russian AA could be neutralised to a decent extent, they might be able to reach back far enough to remove some Russian artillary in the rear and provide some working space to clear out those pesky minefields on the front. While those minefields are being covered by artillary the Ukranian ground offenses aren't going anywhere without massive losses.
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A hilarious read to finish the day.
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Blake wrote: Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:47 pm Good post. Thanks man :thumbup:

I'm too lazy to look so maybe you know off-hand. Whats the deal with the disconnect in the Ukranian aircraft losses graph? A correction of some kind? Double counting corrected?

Regarding the F16's coming into play. Air dominance for Ukraine would be awesome. The Russian AA could be neutralised to a decent extent, they might be able to reach back far enough to remove some Russian artillary in the rear and provide some working space to clear out those pesky minefields on the front. While those minefields are being covered by artillary the Ukranian ground offenses aren't going anywhere without massive losses.
I don't know what the correction was for, corrections are mostly to the Russian count (the opposite of what Russian trolls think), the quantity of Russian losses is higher so they get more doubles.

I've been reading a lot on the conflict this week to try and get a grip of where things are. Agree and disagree on the offensive. The minefield density is/was crazy and Ukraine didn't have air dominance. But assaulting on a broad front failed, and only when they went narrow (apparently after meeting with NATO generals) around Robotyne did they advance. There's also still a discussion over Bakhmut being worth it or not, which is important because Avdiivka is shaping up as a second Bakhmut (limited importance, huge Russian losses, probably Russia does take it if they keep pounding, maybe better for Ukraine not to lose too many men there, on the other hand maybe it's worth losing men there to make Russia pay heavily). I don't think there's any debate that trying to do a counter offensive and defend Bakhmut split Ukraine's forces though, I remember looking at the map of known unit deployments and half Ukraine's units were stacked in and around Bakhmut.

Even now Bakhmut is probably the area with the most Ukrainian units, Avdiivka and Kupiansk after that. But there's also been rotation and Ukraine's units around Bakhmut now mostly aren't that elite.
https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/

Thing is you know a lot of what Ukraine needs to do. It's not the first time anyone has gone up against Russian/Soviet equipment without air superiority and against large entrenched positions and minefields (the scale is different though). Remember ops Moduler/Hooper/Packer, as you know each op led into the other, FAPLA/Cubans had entrenched themselves in multiple layers of ground defence, full air defence and air dominance too. Moduler was very successful, there was an element of surprise and it was a narrow assault with specific limited objectives, Hooper still quite successful (certainly in losses of men and materiel it was heavily in SA's favour). By Packer the assault had been going for over half a year and FAPLA/Cubans/Soviet advisors had deepened their minefields and amassed artillery covering the approaches. There was never actually any battle for Cuito Cuanavale (no urban battle like Bakhmut), SADF never attacked the town itself and only battled around it, the Cubans never countered and always kept digging in more. Once stalemate was reached and SADF had some of its objectives it pulled out and immediately switched to hitting the Cubans on a different part of the front (ops Firewood/Excite/Hilti). If the Ukrainians opt for this, it means the propaganda is harder to counter because the situation is more dynamic, the non-SADF side still talks up Cuito as "Apartheid SA's Stalingrad" when the objectives/outcome/numbers don't really point to a loss (in other words they pull out of Avdiivka before it becomes a second Bakhmut, Russia claims some huge victory, and Ukraine assaults somewhere else Russia is weaker).

It does look like 2024 will be the hardest year yet for Ukraine. Logistics of keeping the war going, the need to rotate men who've been constantly fighting which means recruiting those who haven't volunteered. I can't see them attempting another offensive this year, could easily be a year of Ukraine entrenching and Russia attacking. But the intensity is increasing in some ways, I'm seeing a lot more Electronic Warfare and Russian counters for Ukrainian drones.

Kherson is the only area where Ukraine look like they could advance if they have something up their sleeve, Russia seem a bit softer there too (gave up bridgeheads on their side of the Dnipro very cheaply).
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A Finn member of the EU parliament has started a petition to deprive Hungary of its voting rights in the EU. First time this has ever been initiated.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/petition-t ... 82897.html
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_Os_ wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:58 am
Blake wrote: Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:47 pm Good post. Thanks man :thumbup:

I'm too lazy to look so maybe you know off-hand. Whats the deal with the disconnect in the Ukranian aircraft losses graph? A correction of some kind? Double counting corrected?

Regarding the F16's coming into play. Air dominance for Ukraine would be awesome. The Russian AA could be neutralised to a decent extent, they might be able to reach back far enough to remove some Russian artillary in the rear and provide some working space to clear out those pesky minefields on the front. While those minefields are being covered by artillary the Ukranian ground offenses aren't going anywhere without massive losses.
I don't know what the correction was for, corrections are mostly to the Russian count (the opposite of what Russian trolls think), the quantity of Russian losses is higher so they get more doubles.

I've been reading a lot on the conflict this week to try and get a grip of where things are. Agree and disagree on the offensive. The minefield density is/was crazy and Ukraine didn't have air dominance. But assaulting on a broad front failed, and only when they went narrow (apparently after meeting with NATO generals) around Robotyne did they advance. There's also still a discussion over Bakhmut being worth it or not, which is important because Avdiivka is shaping up as a second Bakhmut (limited importance, huge Russian losses, probably Russia does take it if they keep pounding, maybe better for Ukraine not to lose too many men there, on the other hand maybe it's worth losing men there to make Russia pay heavily). I don't think there's any debate that trying to do a counter offensive and defend Bakhmut split Ukraine's forces though, I remember looking at the map of known unit deployments and half Ukraine's units were stacked in and around Bakhmut.

Even now Bakhmut is probably the area with the most Ukrainian units, Avdiivka and Kupiansk after that. But there's also been rotation and Ukraine's units around Bakhmut now mostly aren't that elite.
https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/

Thing is you know a lot of what Ukraine needs to do. It's not the first time anyone has gone up against Russian/Soviet equipment without air superiority and against large entrenched positions and minefields (the scale is different though). Remember ops Moduler/Hooper/Packer, as you know each op led into the other, FAPLA/Cubans had entrenched themselves in multiple layers of ground defence, full air defence and air dominance too. Moduler was very successful, there was an element of surprise and it was a narrow assault with specific limited objectives, Hooper still quite successful (certainly in losses of men and materiel it was heavily in SA's favour). By Packer the assault had been going for over half a year and FAPLA/Cubans/Soviet advisors had deepened their minefields and amassed artillery covering the approaches. There was never actually any battle for Cuito Cuanavale (no urban battle like Bakhmut), SADF never attacked the town itself and only battled around it, the Cubans never countered and always kept digging in more. Once stalemate was reached and SADF had some of its objectives it pulled out and immediately switched to hitting the Cubans on a different part of the front (ops Firewood/Excite/Hilti). If the Ukrainians opt for this, it means the propaganda is harder to counter because the situation is more dynamic, the non-SADF side still talks up Cuito as "Apartheid SA's Stalingrad" when the objectives/outcome/numbers don't really point to a loss (in other words they pull out of Avdiivka before it becomes a second Bakhmut, Russia claims some huge victory, and Ukraine assaults somewhere else Russia is weaker).

It does look like 2024 will be the hardest year yet for Ukraine. Logistics of keeping the war going, the need to rotate men who've been constantly fighting which means recruiting those who haven't volunteered. I can't see them attempting another offensive this year, could easily be a year of Ukraine entrenching and Russia attacking. But the intensity is increasing in some ways, I'm seeing a lot more Electronic Warfare and Russian counters for Ukrainian drones.

Kherson is the only area where Ukraine look like they could advance if they have something up their sleeve, Russia seem a bit softer there too (gave up bridgeheads on their side of the Dnipro very cheaply).
Yep, agree with you. Russia's lack of mobility is a big weakness that these protracted battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka is not really exploiting; but the meat grinder that those towns have turned into also serves a very useful purpose in accumulating insane Russian manpower and materiel losses. The little Russian morale that might have existed on those fronts is surely gone now and that is also useful to Ukraine. Putin is playing for time. Nothing on that side will change until the US elections. I think he is going all in on Trump winning and American support to Ukraine being cut off. It's only if Trump loses that he's likely to try something I think.

On Ukraine's side, they probably have a similar concern reagrding US support, which is why I think they might actually try some things in 2024 in case tap get closed. A narrow and deep attack is definately the way to go, if they can just get some armour through those fucking minefields safely. My guess would be Robotyne south until they hit the coast or Kherson south-east intil hit the coast, but if it's obvious to me, it's obvious to the Russian generals as well. Regardless, they have to put Crimea into play. They need to create a whack-a-mole situation that forces Russia to move their forces around more, and probing the front is proving too difficult with the mines and artillery coverage. I'm hoping some more airpower will help to create some soft spots and force Russia to constantly adjust, creating some cracks for a push or two in 2024.
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_Os_ wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:58 am
It does look like 2024 will be the hardest year yet for Ukraine. Logistics of keeping the war going, the need to rotate men who've been constantly fighting which means recruiting those who haven't volunteered. I can't see them attempting another offensive this year, could easily be a year of Ukraine entrenching and Russia attacking. But the intensity is increasing in some ways, I'm seeing a lot more Electronic Warfare and Russian counters for Ukrainian drones.

Kherson is the only area where Ukraine look like they could advance if they have something up their sleeve, Russia seem a bit softer there too (gave up bridgeheads on their side of the Dnipro very cheaply).
This. I'm lucky enough to work with quite senior military analysts, and their comparison was 1915-17, with the view that Ukraine should entrench and draw Russia in. This is, of course, hugely risky if Trump gets into the White House in November. When I posited that the Ukrainians could open up the Russian left flank using F16s, light troops over the Dnieper and a concerted push on a limited front on the Surovikin line, their view was that they wouldn't want to risk the materiel at this time. The only plus side this year is that they've established naval dominance, despite not having a navy, which is pretty impressive.
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Hellraiser
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It does my nut in when people bleat about "stalemate" when Ukraine has essentially taken the Black Sea Fleet off the board and re-opened the Odesa grain corridor, and the Russians can't do anything about it.
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I'd have though a relatively static war would suit Ukraine more than Russia; leaving aside their obvious desire to recapture lost territory.

Both sides have drawn down the stores of decades, & if you think of just something as basic as artillery shells, & barrels, it'll take time to restart factories, & just build up supplies enough for any kind of offensive.

The Russians will have a much harder time because they've shuttered all the factories, that's why they're rolling kit out of museums, & getting in tooling with sanctions won't be easy, & they'll have to disrupt existing manufacturing operations, to turn things over to war production. The Ukraine on the other hand has it's allies opening new factories, & ramping up production everywhere, which they'd need to do anyway, just to replace whats been sent already.

Ukraine's other advantage is that it still has the high tech stuff that can reach deep inside Russia, & they can continue with them, & the flashy SpecOps stuff that brings the war to the serfs.
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Russia still has economies of scale in every sector that there is a risk that at some point the patriots get the upper hand in some places and they start to get better results.

Beyond risk of US withdrawal of support, the longer it goes on the more comfortable China and friends will get filling production gaps.


As ever it's incredible how badly the "Germany wants Russia to win" takes have soured where once US support dries up they'll be by an absolute distance the largest backer for Ukraine.
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TheNatalShark wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:26 am Beyond risk of US withdrawal of support, the longer it goes on the more comfortable China and friends will get filling production gaps.
Probably the most disturbing stuff I read this week trying to catch up, was on this subject. A big danger was always that China would take the chance to product dump into Russia's market. There's a lot of advantages for China in this, they kill off Russian competition, then Russia becomes a captive market for China and dependent on China (which includes parts/chips in military equipment). Russia inches closer towards being a Chinese vassal. Not convinced China care much if Russia win or not, but it's obviously not good for Ukraine (not good for Russia either, no matter how clever or not Putin is, he's just one guy calling all the shots so will make huge mistakes).

The Chinese are pumping everything into Russia: weapons, machine tools, machine parts, electronic components, vehicles. Chinese ATVs are turning up in the Russian lines, apparently Russia has ordered 1600 of these for delivery this year. Some models seem to have EW units. They look like golf buggies, but if it wasn't for these some Russians would be hauling supplies/equipment/casualties around on foot. There's already some knocked out by Ukraine in the Krynky area.



There's also Chinese shells that are turning up, but these are old and likely from a third country/countries, probably North Korea. At least one example of a Chinese shell exploding in the barrel and taking the leg of a Russian tanker (after losing his leg he publicly raged about Chinese shells). I've been Googling the attachments Russian operators have on their rifles when gun experts caption photos on social media, seems a lot of stuff Russians have on their rifles are Chinese made (lots of Holosun optics appearing, US company based in the US that does its design work in the US, but manufacturers in China ... fakes or originals they're from China, maybe even from the same factory).

Other than that the trade flows tell a story ... (I'll use Brooks' tweets because he's good on trade)













TheNatalShark wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:26 am As ever it's incredible how badly the "Germany wants Russia to win" takes have soured where once US support dries up they'll be by an absolute distance the largest backer for Ukraine.
Yes and no. The sanctions are working, hence Russia is being forced to import Chinese machine tools to replace superior Italian/German/Scandinavian/etc options. But it's been known for awhile some third countries are being used by Russia to import, particularly the Stans.





















geordie_6
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An aside, but those ATVs are absolutely going to start turning up on American golf courses, complete with gun racks and a deer carcass. They look like Golf Humvees...
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:16 am There's a lot of advantages for China in this, they kill off Russian competition, then Russia becomes a captive market for China and dependent on China (which includes parts/chips in military equipment). Russia inches closer towards being a Chinese vassal. Not convinced China care much if Russia win or not, but it's obviously not good for Ukraine (not good for Russia either, no matter how clever or not Putin is, he's just one guy calling all the shots so will make huge mistakes).
Another advantage that is often underappreciated (in my opinion) is the performance data that gets gathered when weapons systems are finally deployed in real-world battle situations.

Russia's weapons industry's reputation has taken a massive knock. Even though they've disregarded their doctrine in many cases, some of their newer weapons systems have just been utterly exposed. Jets and helicopters, as well as missiles and their air defence systems. Unsurprisingly they lied on the spec sheets, and probably fabricated a bunch of test results as well.

China, in contrast, now gets the chance to test some of their systems in the field and get data back to improve those systems, without suffering much reputational damage to their arms industries.
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_Os_ wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:16 am
TheNatalShark wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:26 am As ever it's incredible how badly the "Germany wants Russia to win" takes have soured where once US support dries up they'll be by an absolute distance the largest backer for Ukraine.
Yes and no. The sanctions are working, hence Russia is being forced to import Chinese machine tools to replace superior Italian/German/Scandinavian/etc options. But it's been known for awhile some third countries are being used by Russia to import, particularly the Stans.
Brooks is a well known Eurodoom monger whom over eggs both the size of the trade dislocation and simply ignores Russia's prior status as a distribution hub into central Asia, which is why his EU exports into central Asia almost never have the follow up data showing the amount of pass through to Russia ("lack of reliable data" - he'll sometimes respond with gross trade import numbers on the up by Russia but goes quiet when pointing out the sectoral shifts or the Caucasus corridor), and his lack of showing service exports to central Asia (which coincidentally also went up for similar reasons). You know its a game of small numbers where a few hundred percent screams a lot but means naff all vs the total decline EU vs CIS.

It's a problem to be tackled, but its not a "Germany wants Russia to win" argument, anymore than some Polish/Italian/US/British brands still existing in and being exported to Russia is, and lumping them in as "wanting Russia to win".

Brooks cries a lot about it because its "his baby". He's pretty good on almost everything else (including Eurodoom mongering), which is a shame (for me) as this turned him into a spam machine.
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Blake wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:44 pm
_Os_ wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:16 am There's a lot of advantages for China in this, they kill off Russian competition, then Russia becomes a captive market for China and dependent on China (which includes parts/chips in military equipment). Russia inches closer towards being a Chinese vassal. Not convinced China care much if Russia win or not, but it's obviously not good for Ukraine (not good for Russia either, no matter how clever or not Putin is, he's just one guy calling all the shots so will make huge mistakes).
Another advantage that is often underappreciated (in my opinion) is the performance data that gets gathered when weapons systems are finally deployed in real-world battle situations.

Russia's weapons industry's reputation has taken a massive knock. Even though they've disregarded their doctrine in many cases, some of their newer weapons systems have just been utterly exposed. Jets and helicopters, as well as missiles and their air defence systems. Unsurprisingly they lied on the spec sheets, and probably fabricated a bunch of test results as well.

China, in contrast, now gets the chance to test some of their systems in the field and get data back to improve those systems, without suffering much reputational damage to their arms industries.
The issue is China has exactly the same corruption issues in procurement as Russia. There has been a big purge in the military in recent months after a big scandal involving missiles that had their fuel flogged off and replaced with water, and most missile silos in western China being inoperable due to poor construction. The threat of action against Taiwan has reduced significantly because no one at the top is sure how far the rot goes, despite very public efforts to crack down on corruption over the last decade. US intelligence reports are now saying it's open to question whether China is capable of undertaking any sort of significant military action successfully.
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Hellraiser wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:01 pm
The issue is China has exactly the same corruption issues in procurement as Russia. There has been a big purge in the military in recent months after a big scandal involving missiles that had their fuel flogged off and replaced with water, and most missile silos in western China being inoperable due to poor construction. The threat of action against Taiwan has reduced significantly because no one at the top is sure how far the rot goes, despite very public efforts to crack down on corruption over the last decade. US intelligence reports are now saying it's open to question whether China is capable of undertaking any sort of significant military action successfully.
Yeah, & there's a broader, deeper, & more significant problem in China with their debt problem, that makes the 2008 crash look like someone losing their loose change down the back of the sofa !

Evergrande is just the first domino in a multi-Trillion dollar property/debt crisis, that only isn't unfolding, because the Party is desperately hammering down any nail that sticks up, & quashing any commentary that pops up on SM. Another, "non-bank bank", went belly up a little while ago, & as a result probably hundreds of property developments will now never be completed, & thousands of people will lose all the money the invested in the non-bank, & maybe millions of people now lose the money the put towards buying their new home. Because this wasn't an officially recognised Bank, so none of the money is guaranteed !
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Yep, there's a whole bunch of issues which China is squeezing down upon and finding themselves on very rocky ground - but the relative wealth is so great vs. from where they've come from even a hard landing will be, err, relative. When your wealth levels are measured in orders of magnitude better than what there were a generation ago what is a disaster from a Western perspective isn't actually the end of the world for all the media hoop-lah. Impacts everybody doing business with them of course. The corruption is something else though, you only have to see the legislative branch palaces built in every city, empty, to understand just how deep the rot still is. It's an effective corruption though - things can get done when they need to be. I'll take 3% of everything, not the ruination of African. Still their problems are immense. Complex place.
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Election day in Taiwan.

Two hours till voting closes and the count to decide the new president begins.

First district results expected an hour or so after that...
_Os_
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TheNatalShark wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:15 pm
_Os_ wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:16 am
TheNatalShark wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:26 am As ever it's incredible how badly the "Germany wants Russia to win" takes have soured where once US support dries up they'll be by an absolute distance the largest backer for Ukraine.
Yes and no. The sanctions are working, hence Russia is being forced to import Chinese machine tools to replace superior Italian/German/Scandinavian/etc options. But it's been known for awhile some third countries are being used by Russia to import, particularly the Stans.
Brooks is a well known Eurodoom monger whom over eggs both the size of the trade dislocation and simply ignores Russia's prior status as a distribution hub into central Asia, which is why his EU exports into central Asia almost never have the follow up data showing the amount of pass through to Russia ("lack of reliable data" - he'll sometimes respond with gross trade import numbers on the up by Russia but goes quiet when pointing out the sectoral shifts or the Caucasus corridor), and his lack of showing service exports to central Asia (which coincidentally also went up for similar reasons). You know its a game of small numbers where a few hundred percent screams a lot but means naff all vs the total decline EU vs CIS.

It's a problem to be tackled, but its not a "Germany wants Russia to win" argument, anymore than some Polish/Italian/US/British brands still existing in and being exported to Russia is, and lumping them in as "wanting Russia to win".

Brooks cries a lot about it because its "his baby". He's pretty good on almost everything else (including Eurodoom mongering), which is a shame (for me) as this turned him into a spam machine.
Very interesting, thanks for that it makes sense that there's more to it for the reasons you state. The first sanctions dodging I heard of was electronics components going through Turkey, there was a report on it I read maybe a year ago, those sort of flows wouldn't show up much on macro level data though (these were the famous "washing machine chips inside Russian weapons").

Russians have purposely set out to use foreign white label cheap components in their military industrial complex. We know that for sure now from all their equipment which has been taken apart. There's downsides to doing this: potential security issues, IP issues, potential quality control issues, the end product never matching US/western equipment 1 v 1. But there's upsides too, especially for a middle power that's economically backward, compared to SA it's a much larger economy but imo less sophisticated than SA/less diversified. Basically it means they can be a primary resource producer and access a higher level of technology at a lower production cost than if the full value chain was inside Russia (because the economy isn't diversified/doesn't have much value add, they would need to a lot of state supported industry at huge cost to do everything natively). But they're now buying Chinese ATV golf buggies and Iranian drones, all off the shelf with no Russian inputs even in the design, that's something new and they end up with no arms industry if they keep doing that. The higher grade western tooling and components they were using is where they're going to keep struggling, the tank optics they're putting into their refits are a straight downgrade on what their best tanks had pre-2022 invasion (this is known from tanks Ukraine have captured), because those systems were using western components.
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Brazil wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:13 pm
_Os_ wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:58 am
It does look like 2024 will be the hardest year yet for Ukraine. Logistics of keeping the war going, the need to rotate men who've been constantly fighting which means recruiting those who haven't volunteered. I can't see them attempting another offensive this year, could easily be a year of Ukraine entrenching and Russia attacking. But the intensity is increasing in some ways, I'm seeing a lot more Electronic Warfare and Russian counters for Ukrainian drones.

Kherson is the only area where Ukraine look like they could advance if they have something up their sleeve, Russia seem a bit softer there too (gave up bridgeheads on their side of the Dnipro very cheaply).
This. I'm lucky enough to work with quite senior military analysts, and their comparison was 1915-17, with the view that Ukraine should entrench and draw Russia in. This is, of course, hugely risky if Trump gets into the White House in November. When I posited that the Ukrainians could open up the Russian left flank using F16s, light troops over the Dnieper and a concerted push on a limited front on the Surovikin line, their view was that they wouldn't want to risk the materiel at this time. The only plus side this year is that they've established naval dominance, despite not having a navy, which is pretty impressive.
A move in Kherson could just "naturally" start to happen. This gets quite complicated but the Russian command looks poor there. This is a translation of commentary from a popular Russian Telegram channel:



There's quite a lot of anger directed at Teplinsky who Putin put in as commander of that front in late 2023. But this is where it starts to get complicated, Wagner/Prigozhin were a GRU (military intelligence) cut out, Teplinsky is the commander of the VDV (ie a military man) and the VDV worked closely with Wagner on the battlefield (ie Teplinsky and Prigozhin worked together), Teplinsky was conspicuously quiet during the strange Wagner coup not a coup. This all puts Teplinsky under a lot of suspicion (maybe not helped by Teplinsky being from Donetsk). Putin then moves him to the toughest front for Russia, and Russian Telegram channels (very probably under instruction from the FSB, ie men closer to Putin than GRU men are) start criticising Teplinsky as in that translated post from a Russian Telegram channel. During all this a new VDV unit (104th Division) was basically wiped out over two months by Ukraine in Kherson, when Teplinsky was both the commander of the VDV and that region.

Whatever is going on Russian command looks poor there at the moment.
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