What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Pistorius has announced the transfer of 6 Deutsche Marine Sea King Mk.41 helicopters to Ukraine, with deliveries beginning in March.

[Calculon]

Lithuania's State Defence Council has approved the purchase of 54 Leopard 2A8s from KMW/Rheinmetall.

As it stands so far, the following countries have announced plans to buy and/or part produce-Leopard 2A8s:

Italy - 125, with and option of up to 250
Czechia - 70-77
Norway - 54
Lithuania - 54
Netherlands - 52
Germany - 18 (to replace the 2A6s given to Ukraine), with an option for another 105

So a minimum of 375, and a max of 600, so far. If they start to be churned out by the German's it could easily see a snowball effect and other NATO countries starting to get in on the action as the price comes down with more orders. If it pushes towards the 1000 mark, I reckon you'll see countries start off-loading their 2A4s, 2A5s, and 2A6s to Ukraine.

Guessing those deliveries won't happen for several more years though. Also read Poland might send their version of the Leopard to Ukraine once they get enough of the Korean and/or Abrams

[PornDog]

Pistorius has announced the transfer of 6 Deutsche Marine Sea King Mk.41 helicopters to Ukraine, with deliveries beginning in March.

These to be used in an ASW role?

[Uncle fester]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

[tabascoboy]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

Seems odd that they would use expensive transport means for PoWs and not a couple of road transport vehicles, still we shall see I suppose

[yermum]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

Claims Russia.

[geordie_6]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

Claims Russia.

Can they call them "prisoners of war" given they go for "special military operation" or whatever bollocks.

[Hellraiser]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

The Russians claimed that after the Ukrainians announced it was carrying S-300 missiles.

[Hellraiser]

Russian jet down.
Looks like Ukrainian POW's on board.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68080529

Claims Russia.

Can they call them "prisoners of war" given they go for "special military operation" or whatever bollocks.

Consistency of narrative is not a Russian strength. All they care about is muddying the waters.

[yermum]

[Hellraiser]

The plane was in Iran yesterday. Quite clear the Russians have lost something important and are desperately trying to fling as much bullshit out as possible.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

The plane was in Iran yesterday. Quite clear the Russians have lost something important and are desperately trying to fling as much bullshit out as possible.

Perhaps trading S-300/S-400 systems for drones ??

Any trade with Iran is going to be barter basically, as they obviously don't need Oil

[tabascoboy]

Russian claims really not being backed up at all for now but I'm pretty sure that somehow all those "victims'" bodies will magically appear in photos

The downed Russian air force Il-76 RA-78830, from what I see, had just had a flight from Moscow to Iran around Jan 23.
Then, it was seen taking off from Iran and then getting back to Russia via Saudi and Egyptian airspace on Jan. 24.
And then it was downed near Belgorod.
And I have a question - was it carrying Ukrainian POWs or Iranian weapons to Belgorod and farther into Russia?

There's a question though over whether this was the definitely same aircraft that was shot down

[tabascoboy]

The official version of the Russian Federation regarding the crash of Il-76 on January 24, 2023, is reduced to the following position:

The airplane carried Ukrainian prisoners of war who were to be delivered for exchange (192 for 192).

This version is illogical, and here is why:

a) the aircraft crashed (was shot down) on takeoff from the airfield in Belgorod. Where exactly could the prisoners, who were already 40 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border, have been delivered to? The Kolotilovka-Pokrovka border point is the only functioning "corridor" for exchanges. It is 95 km away from Belgorod and it is impossible to deliver anyone there by plane.

b) That very aircraft has never been used for transporting POWs before. Moreover, it flew to the Middle East and its current flight was a return from there. "The Il-76 shot down today near Belgorod was returning to Chkalovsky (military air base - ed.) after its routine patrol of the Middle East. Such a route the aircraft has been doing regularly for several years now," sources reported.

c) the Russian side claims to have warned the Ukrainian side about the route of the prisoners' delivery. However, a strike on our own soldiers is absolutely not favorable to Ukraine and would create massive problems for us (both at home and in the international arena). Whereas for the Russian Federation, everything is exactly the opposite, as the first reaction of officials confirms (for example, the speaker of the State Duma V. Volodin changed the discussion towards the necessity of finding out what weapon was used to shoot down the aircraft — with an obvious promotion of demands to the West to stop providing high-tech military aid to Ukraine).

d) the aircraft was flying north, in the opposite direction from the border with Ukraine. No official Ukrainian spokesman gave any information about the shooting down of the aircraft, no confirmation or claim of responsibility.

c) the attack on the aircraft could happen only in case of a Russian provocation and special operation of Russian special services that misinformed the Ukrainian side about the particular flight.
There is no evidence that there were 63 Ukrainian prisoners of war on board; the lists that are thrown in the media space by the Russian side are not any kind of evidence, and it is impossible to verify them. In fact, about 17 names on the list coincide with the names of prisoners of war already exchanged earlier.

d) observers pointed out that for such a large number of prisoners, the number of declared accompanying officers (3) is too small, which is a violation of all statutes and protocols.

e) such a large number of victims is not confirmed by the first photos and videos from the crash site — neither bodies nor their fragments were seen in the frame. Only later it was stated that the bodies were found 1.5-2 kilometers away from the crash site — which is also strange, given the circumstances of the fall as captured on video.

f) there are obvious traces of detonation of some cargo on board (there was data that Il-76 carried missiles for the S-300 complex). I.e., it is extremely strange that there could be both prisoners of war and a cargo of missiles on the same board.

Conclusions

1. The circumstances of the crash have not been established fully; the fact of Ukrainian prisoners of war being on board has not been established either. If the latter is confirmed, then they could have been on board this particular aircraft only as a result of a provocative special operation by Russian special services.

2. The situation is favorable to Russia and 100% disadvantageous to Ukraine. The allegations about the purposeful killing of its own military captives is a deliberate lie that fits only within the framework of Russian propaganda clichés.

3. In the operational information "boost," Russian agents in the West and Russian bot farms have been noticed, and became active from the very first minutes.

4. The circumstances of the story with Il-76 are similar to the story of the killing of Ukrainian POWs at the Russian Olenivka prison camp. No evidence that the strike on the camp was conducted by the Ukrainian side has ever appeared, and international experts were not allowed to visit the scene.

5. If the Russian Federation is confident in its version of the events, it should initiate the creation of an international commission to investigate the case and open access to all materials related to it.

[tabascoboy]

The strike against Russian oil facilities in Tuapse, Russia, only days after the successful strike against the Ust-Luga terminal removes all doubt that we are dealing with a targeted effort to eliminate all major Russian oil and gas ports, so that they are rendered useless for any operations.

When looking at the Russian oil and gas pipeline map, then you will notice that almost all of them head West. There is a small pipeline going east, but it is not connected to the main oil fields in Western Siberia and only small in size. Russia's economic lifeline goes all the way West. In the past, this was the matter of problems for the West, since Russia used this power to blackmail Europe. Now, its close proximity has become the source of weakness.

Among all of those pipelines only 5 end in Russian sea ports. Every other pipeline, especially the Druzhba pipeline, enters Western (NATO) territory and are therefore subject of sanctions or worse. The Druzhba pipeline goes anyway partly through Ukrainian territory and the rest such as the pumping stations are anyway in firing range.

3 of the pipelines end near Sankt Petersburg in the Baltic Sea, 2 of them go the Black Sea. Among of them, Ukraine successfully struck 2 already. Ust-Luga is inoperable for the next weeks or even months. Shipping companies will increasingly reconsider sending their vessels to those ports which are military targets.

This will be a big headache for the Russian war effort. The current attacks are still small in size, using a handful of drones, but already caused considerable damage. When Ukraine starts mass-hitting those ports, then the Russian air defense will not be able to stop the outcome, even when destroying 99% of all drones.

The National Geographic map is from 2006 and yet not much has changed since then. The major difference I see is the extension of the natural gas pipeline grid of which some have been turned into "sea water pipelines". The irony behind that speak for itself. Putin and his oligarchs never ever anticipated this situation, like everything since February 2022. Everything what Moscow does makes a bad situation worse and I'm sure that sooner or later somebody in Putin's circle (of which nobody is a saint but simply tired of this vicious cycle) will do the math that it is easier to remove Putin than remove the Ukraine will for freedom and independence.

[tabascoboy]

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[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

https://deaidua.org/news/2024/01/26/rhe ... -planning/

Rheinmetall: New ammunition factory & framework contract for artillery ammunition in planning

Apparently, Ukraine can look forward to an even better supply of 155 mm artillery ammunition and corresponding deliveries by the German government in the long term.

Germany’s Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, announced yesterday during an approximately 45-minutes long interview with BILD that a second framework contract for the production and supply of artillery ammunition is currently being worked on with Rheinmetall.

According to Pistorius, this is because the German arms manufacturer is building a new ammunition factory for artillery ammunition at very short notice.

He did not provide any further details such as a timeline, a possible scale of production or where the production would take place. However, it is likely to be a possible factory in Lithuania.

According to The Baltic Times, Aušrinė Armonaitė, the Lithuanian Minister for Economy and Innovation, also reported yesterday that they are in “very detailed talks” with Rheinmetall about the construction of a factory inside of Lithuania.

Although she did not reveal any details either, it would probably be a coincidence of cosmic proportions if they were not talking about the same factory.

Lithuania is traditionally very close to the German defence industry and has been heavily involved for a long time. Not just because there has been a maintenance hub for NATO equipment since 2022, which is jointly managed by KMW and Rheinmetall under the name Lithuania Defense Services (LDS).

This hub has been used since mid-2023 for the repair and maintenance of damaged Ukrainian Strv 122 and Leopard 2A6 MBTs and is therefore currently irreplaceable for Ukraine.

Pistorius in front of a Leopard 2 MBT at LDSImage: BTB-concept
Minister of Defence Pistorius in front of a repaired Leopard 2 MBT at LDS in Lithuania

The German decision to station a full brigade in Lithuania — in that kind for the first time in the history of the Bundeswehr — could have also played a role in the choice of location.

The construction of a new factory in Lithuania would not be the first effort to increase the company’s own production capacity for 155 mm artillery ammunition. Firstly, Rheinmetall acquired the Spanish ammunition manufacturer Expal Systems S.A.U. for around 1.2 billion euros in August 2023, while the takeover was already announced in November 2022.

Rheinmetall has also increased its production capacity by expanding existing production lines and plans to produce up to 700,000 155 mm artillery shells by the end of the year. In 2022, the capacity was still around 80,000 155 mm artillery shells.

Rheinmetall also wanted to build a new powder factory on a former military airfield in Grossenhain. A project that allegedly failed for political reasons. Instead, the company now wants to expand the existing site in the Bavarian municipality of Aschau am Inn. Nevertheless, this will also lead to an increase in production capacity.

Whether the new factory will now be built in Lithuania seems to be uncertain, at least on the Lithuanian side, and nothing has been heard from Rheinmetall yet — but the German Ministry of Defence seems to be firmly planning on it.

So we — especially the Ukrainians, of course — should stay tuned and still expect the best.

[Hellraiser]

France has transferred another 2 LRU/M270 MLRS systems to Ukraine.

[PornDog]

A while ago, not sure if it was a xhitter thread or its own article, but there was a long explanation about the alternative second world war history literature craze within Russia - with the like of Hitler and Stalin being besties and sacking London and all that.

Anyone got a link to that? Have tried using the search function without success.

Edit: never mind - found it through the power of Google - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535 ... 20032.html

[Hellraiser]

A while ago, not sure if it was a xhitter thread or its own article, but there was a long explanation about the alternative second world war history literature craze within Russia - with the like of Hitler and Stalin being besties and sacking London and all that.

Anyone got a link to that? Have tried using the search function without success.

Edit: never mind - found it through the power of Google - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535 ... 20032.html

It cropped up at the time, here and the other place. Think it might have been me or Flockwitt who posted it. The only issue Russia and Russians have ever had with Hitler and the Nazi regime is that they betrayed them.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Visually confirmed Russian equipment losses at Avdiivka are insanely disproportionate to Ukrainian ones.

Figures to Jan 27th 2024; Ukrainian:Russian - Destroyed/Captured/Abandoned:

MBTs - 18:174
AFVs - 14:308
IMV - 3:12
MLRS - 1:8
SPG - 2:14
Towed Gun - 0:1
Engineering - 0:10
Anti Aircraft - 0:3

At Krynky, while smaller in scale, the losses are even worse.

MBTs - 1:18
AFVS - 1:51

[tabascoboy]

A while ago, not sure if it was a xhitter thread or its own article, but there was a long explanation about the alternative second world war history literature craze within Russia - with the like of Hitler and Stalin being besties and sacking London and all that.

Anyone got a link to that? Have tried using the search function without success.

Edit: never mind - found it through the power of Google - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535 ... 20032.html

It cropped up at the time, here and the other place. Think it might have been me or Flockwitt who posted it. The only issue Russia and Russians have ever had with Hitler and the Nazi regime is that they betrayed them.

They were certainly buddy enough to sign the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, and planned to carve up much of Eastern Europe between themselves.

[petej]

Visually confirmed Russian equipment losses at Avdiivka are insanely disproportionate to Ukrainian ones.

Figures to Jan 27th 2024; Ukrainian:Russian - Destroyed/Captured/Abandoned:

MBTs - 18:174
AFVs - 14:308
IMV - 3:12
MLRS - 1:8
SPG - 2:14
Towed Gun - 0:1
Engineering - 0:10
Anti Aircraft - 0:3

At Krynky, while smaller in scale, the losses are even worse.

MBTs - 1:18
AFVS - 1:51

I'm amazed when people think the Ukrainians are losing due to much reported about battles where the Russians have managed to grind forward a few kilometres while losing loads of men and equipment.

[Hellraiser]

Visually confirmed Russian equipment losses at Avdiivka are insanely disproportionate to Ukrainian ones.

Figures to Jan 27th 2024; Ukrainian:Russian - Destroyed/Captured/Abandoned:

MBTs - 18:174
AFVs - 14:308
IMV - 3:12
MLRS - 1:8
SPG - 2:14
Towed Gun - 0:1
Engineering - 0:10
Anti Aircraft - 0:3

At Krynky, while smaller in scale, the losses are even worse.

MBTs - 1:18
AFVS - 1:51

I'm amazed when people think the Ukrainians are losing due to much reported about battles where the Russians have managed to grind forward a few kilometres while losing loads of men and equipment.

Those figures don't even include damaged equipment, which may be write-offs for all we know.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-resear ... -ready-war

[Uncle fester]

https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold- ... e-in-2024/

HOLD, BUILD, AND STRIKE: A VISION FOR REBUILDING UKRAINE’S ADVANTAGE IN 2024
MICHAEL KOFMAN, ROB LEE, AND DARA MASSICOT
JANUARY 26, 2024

Fairly sobering article.

[petej]

https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold- ... e-in-2024/

HOLD, BUILD, AND STRIKE: A VISION FOR REBUILDING UKRAINE’S ADVANTAGE IN 2024
MICHAEL KOFMAN, ROB LEE, AND DARA MASSICOT
JANUARY 26, 2024

Fairly sobering article.

Ummm. Kofman being a happy chappy again.

[yermum]

Russia has unlimited artillery!

Unlimited artillery:

[tabascoboy]

[yermum]

Wow that seems like a bold move.

By all accounts he is a popular commander.

[tabascoboy]

Wow that seems like a bold move.

By all accounts he is a popular commander.

I'm going to guess at a clash of personalities...

Seems to be hoped that Budanov gets the post and not Syrsky

[Guy Smiley]

Wow that seems like a bold move.

By all accounts he is a popular commander.

I'm going to guess at a clash of personalities...

Seems to be hoped that Budanov gets the post and not Syrsky

I wonder if it's connected to the story I saw somewhere yesterday about corruption affecting weapons procurement.

[tabascoboy]

Well could just be rumours?

There are ongoing rumors of the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi as well as the resignation of Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov.

"Dear journalists, we immediately answer everyone: No, this is not true," the Ukrainian MoD reports. Likely referring to the rumor about Umerov.

Let's wait for more and better official information.

[tabascoboy]

Doesn't seem to be any clarity yet about the rumoured firing, but in other news

[Hellraiser]

According to Serbian press, Kuwait is looking to transfer 100 M-84AV tanks (Yugoslav T-72 variant) to Croatia to be be upgraded then transferred to Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

Germany has delivered another Skynex battery to Ukraine.

[Uncle fester]

Well could just be rumours?

There are ongoing rumors of the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi as well as the resignation of Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov.

"Dear journalists, we immediately answer everyone: No, this is not true," the Ukrainian MoD reports. Likely referring to the rumor about Umerov.

Let's wait for more and better official information.

Guardian is reporting it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other