What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

OMG I am so shocked by this totally unexpected development...

Russian opposition leader Navalny has died, prison service says

Russia's most significant opposition leader for the past decade, Alexei Navalny, has died in prison inside the Arctic Circle, Russian news agencies report, quoting the prison service.

Seen as President Vladimir Putin's most vociferous critic, Navalny was serving a 19-year jail term for offences widely considered politically motivated.

He was moved to an Arctic penal colony, considered one of the toughest jails, late last year.

The prison service in the Yamalo-Nenets district said it was establishing the causes of his death, Tass news agency reported.

[Uncle fester]

Only surprise is that he lasted this long.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

[inactionman]

OMG I am so shocked by this totally unexpected development...

Russian opposition leader Navalny has died, prison service says

Russia's most significant opposition leader for the past decade, Alexei Navalny, has died in prison inside the Arctic Circle, Russian news agencies report, quoting the prison service.

Seen as President Vladimir Putin's most vociferous critic, Navalny was serving a 19-year jail term for offences widely considered politically motivated.

He was moved to an Arctic penal colony, considered one of the toughest jails, late last year.

The prison service in the Yamalo-Nenets district said it was establishing the causes of his death, Tass news agency reported.

Depressingly inevitable.

Bloody brave bloke, he knew it would end this way but went back anyway.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

OMG I am so shocked by this totally unexpected development...

Russian opposition leader Navalny has died, prison service says

Russia's most significant opposition leader for the past decade, Alexei Navalny, has died in prison inside the Arctic Circle, Russian news agencies report, quoting the prison service.

Seen as President Vladimir Putin's most vociferous critic, Navalny was serving a 19-year jail term for offences widely considered politically motivated.

He was moved to an Arctic penal colony, considered one of the toughest jails, late last year.

The prison service in the Yamalo-Nenets district said it was establishing the causes of his death, Tass news agency reported.

Depressingly inevitable.

Bloody brave bloke, he knew it would end this way but went back anyway.

Speculation that his family would have fallen out windows if he didn't go back.

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Seems very likely that RU lost more troops in the 5 month assault than lived in the actual town...

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi ordered the withdrawal of all Ukrainian Forces from Avdiivka. The Russian assault which started as a surprise attack in early October got early bogged down. After 5 months of costly battles, Russians managed to secure the 32,000 population city (pre war).

In territorial numbers, the newly occupied territory entails around 82 square kilometers (31 square miles). I also added the full map of this war, including an arrow pointing at that area.

[Hellraiser]

Can't find the link but internal Russian figures for casualties as of the last day or two reportedly stand at irretrievable losses of 401,538. This does not include PMC figures before August 1st 2023, which stand at 79,192 dead.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians shot down a Su-35 and 2 Su-34s this morning.

[tabascoboy]

Uhh some painful doomposting from rus volunteer Murz, he found out the numbers of irreversible losses in Avdiivka and it's not making him happy. And he really seems to like Syrsky.

Keep in mind that he is risking his ass by voicing this information, so it must be really getting to him.

[Hellraiser]

A long watch but an interesting one.

[lemonhead]

Uhh some painful doomposting from rus volunteer Murz, he found out the numbers of irreversible losses in Avdiivka and it's not making him happy. And he really seems to like Syrsky.

Keep in mind that he is risking his ass by voicing this information, so it must be really getting to him.

Grim reading. 1-3 (God forbid 1-2) would still be a shit trade for Ukraine, even if better Russian troops were involved.

[tabascoboy]

Yet more RU jet losses have been claimed today

[Hellraiser]

4 Su-34s and 2 Su-35s in the past five days or so using one of the German Patriot batteries.

[fishfoodie]

4 Su-34s and 2 Su-35s in the past five days or so using one of the German Patriot batteries.

Not bad for a ~40 year old weapon system.

[tabascoboy]

We might have a breakthrough regarding the TAURUS missile.

The government parties agreed to send the motion for a parliament voting on a new military aid package containing “long range weapons”. The word “TAURUS” is not mentioned but it is obviously the core of that new military aid package. Voting should take place this week.

Reason for this change of heart is Navalny’s murder. Even members of the SPD are appalled and now ready to support the bill, in order to send a message to Putin.

The motion is also a concession to TAURUS supporters in the government parties who threatened to bring in their own notion, further straining the government coalition.

Source (German): https://stern.de/politik/deutschland/uk ... 73170.html

[sockwithaticket]

What's Russian air power looking like now? It feels as if there've been fairly regular reports of one or two SUs being shot down, the wrecks must be starting to pile up.

[laurent]

What's Russian air power looking like now? It feels as if there've been fairly regular reports of one or two SUs being shot down, the wrecks must be starting to pile up.

they lost about 3 to 6 month production in the last few days. (6 Su 3x)

Also lost some rather irreplaceable surveillance aircrafts recently (not produced anymore).

The pilots losses is probably the most important if not seen issue. it takes a few years to train one.

[Hellraiser]

1/ Russia has lost at least 102 of their ~186 active T-80U tanks operated by the 12th and 13th Guard Tank Regiments of the 4th Guards Tank Division. I have looked for T-80Us in storage, to answer if they might be able to replace the losses and rebuild their units

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Russian serviceman "Severny veter" went to defend Murz and stated that Avdiivka was simply given up to Russia to avoid losses, while future progress west will be complicated. He also complains about losses and the fact that those responsible for them will be awarded and promoted. From his words, Ukraine has 2nd and 3rd lines of defence beyond Avdiivka while russian supply lines are no built to continue moving forward.

Propagandist Sladkov shows master-class of russian propaganda and proves that he has nothing to do with being a military reporter. He suggests celebrating Avdiivka "victory" by rounding up all surviving POWs and putting "cameras and monitors" up while they speak to their relatives.

He also suggests collecting all corpses in one pile and offer families one week to come and pick them up while televising it.

Truly a great apprentice of Goebbels, provided his own evidence for the Hague trial.

[geordie_6]

Imagine the cost imbalance for the Orcs here. Handful of cheap drones and munitions, versus several vehicles and whatever they were carrying.

[Raggs]

Imagine the cost imbalance for the Orcs here. Handful of cheap drones and munitions, versus several vehicles and whatever they were carrying.

Laser tech really has come at just the right time to defend against these sort of thing. Relatively cheap to shoot, and much closer cost equivalent that smart missiles etc.

[tabascoboy]

Just maybe this time it can proceed...

[tabascoboy]

The tense situation between the coalition parties of the German government in reference to the TAURUS missile has escalated into an open conflict. Member of the parliament and defense committee chair, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann of the FDP, announced that she will vote together with the CDU/CSU opposition for the motion of a TAURUS delivery.

This comes only after a day when the government coalition announced to bring in a motion containing the delivery of “long-range weapons” to Ukraine, without mentioning the TAURUS. Apparently, that was not enough and some won’t have it any more what Scholz and his small circle confidants are doing.

The exact outcome of this power struggle is open but I’m almost certain that if Scholz defies this instance then this government ends.

Source (German): https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politi ... obile.html

[geordie_6]

Imagine the cost imbalance for the Orcs here. Handful of cheap drones and munitions, versus several vehicles and whatever they were carrying.

Laser tech really has come at just the right time to defend against these sort of thing. Relatively cheap to shoot, and much closer cost equivalent that smart missiles etc.

And quite an interesting development when you also have the resurgence of the more "old tech" Gepard systems. Albeit much more limited than laser tech in terms of range, I would imagine.

[tabascoboy]

Reports this morning that Ukrainian military shot down anotherRussian Su-34 fighter-bomber
and
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Uhh some painful doomposting from rus volunteer Murz, he found out the numbers of irreversible losses in Avdiivka and it's not making him happy. And he really seems to like Syrsky.

Keep in mind that he is risking his ass by voicing this information, so it must be really getting to him.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

You can only imagine how many on both sides even if physically OK have severe trauma that will last for the rest of their lives, however long or short that is. Obviously have no sympathy for those who willingly signed up for this on the RU side...

Full text of the letter that the late Murz promised to publish before killing himself. The letter was authored by a serviceman of the 1487 Regiment of the RF armed formations which took part in the Avdiivka battle.

It lists the lack of weapons and transport provided, losses of 70% of the regiment, complete lack of medical examinations and treatment, and transfer to the "Veterans" PMC which is connected to Putin himself. This PMC consists of criminals who do not show up on the frontline but claim the "successes" of the regiment.

The main complaint from Murz was that this 1487 Regiment was not even mentioned in Putin's telegram listing units that took part in the occupation of Avdiivka.

[tabascoboy]

Going "softly softly" on the longer range missile approach regarding supplying UA hasn't stopped RU buying ballistic missiles from North Korea and now Iran after all so why not give UA what it needs?

The German Bundestag has voted by a majority in favor of a draft resolution calling for the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Taurus cruise missiles are not explicitly mentioned but they fit the description.

382 MPs out of 668 present were in favor, 284 were against, and 2 more abstained. The document says that long-term military support for Ukraine "includes the supply of the necessary additional long-range combat systems and ammunition" so that it "could launch targeted strikes against strategically important facilities located in the deep rear" of Russian forces.

The decision is now up to Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Long-range missiles are one of the key weapons needed by Ukraine on the battlefield.

[tabascoboy]

Transnistria may already turn to Moscow on Feb. 28 with a request to join Russia.



Reports that Transnistria (part of Moldova) may request annexation by Russia.

May trigger action from Moldova with #Ukraine help

#Russia realistically unable to intervene, in part because Ukraine has sunk so many of its landing ships in past 2 years

[Hellraiser]

Transnistria may already turn to Moscow on Feb. 28 with a request to join Russia.



Reports that Transnistria (part of Moldova) may request annexation by Russia.

May trigger action from Moldova with #Ukraine help

#Russia realistically unable to intervene, in part because Ukraine has sunk so many of its landing ships in past 2 years

It would be quite literally insane for the puppet government in Tiraspol to do anything so radical. It would see an immediate Moldovan/Ukrainian intervention, maybe even a Romanian one.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

Transnistria may already turn to Moscow on Feb. 28 with a request to join Russia.



Reports that Transnistria (part of Moldova) may request annexation by Russia.

May trigger action from Moldova with #Ukraine help

#Russia realistically unable to intervene, in part because Ukraine has sunk so many of its landing ships in past 2 years

It would be quite literally insane for the puppet government in Tiraspol to do anything so radical. It would see an immediate Moldovan/Ukrainian intervention, maybe even a Romanian one.

Would Russia be in any position to do anything about it?

Assume this is just an attempt to distract from Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Transnistria may already turn to Moscow on Feb. 28 with a request to join Russia.


Reports that Transnistria (part of Moldova) may request annexation by Russia.

May trigger action from Moldova with #Ukraine help

#Russia realistically unable to intervene, in part because Ukraine has sunk so many of its landing ships in past 2 years

It would be quite literally insane for the puppet government in Tiraspol to do anything so radical. It would see an immediate Moldovan/Ukrainian intervention, maybe even a Romanian one.

Would Russia be in any position to do anything about it?

Assume this is just an attempt to distract from Ukraine?

Whether the Puppet Government have been put up to it or not by Russia is open to question but it's a situation that RU could exploit for their own ends quite easily since they are continuing to "test" the west. I suspect it's just a ploy since RU simply can't supply Transnistria without entering land territory/air space of UA or Moldova - which would be "bold" to say the least. Attacking either with the RU garrison or their own reserves already within Transnistria would be utterly futile and disastrous - but since RU evidently care little for casualties, feeding the narrative of "self defence for Russia under attack by enemies all around" might be something they'd consider for the sake of more sabre-rattling and claiming rights of self-determination as per the occupied territories.

Realistically any chance of full integration went to pot as soon as it was clear they couldn't progress the attempts at a completed land bridge bordering the Black Sea including Kherson and Odesa. Still when it comes to RU at the moment it's questionable if rationality should be applied...

See this series of tweets too,



it concludes:

10/10 The authorities in Chisinau and security services perceive what is happening in the region as another information campaign of the #Kremlin. Politicians in Chisinau have a clear understanding that Tiraspol (represented by Sheriff) does not want to inflame the situation.

[tabascoboy]

Russian media: “02/23/2024 Again A-50, again the same area. The enemy has nothing to do with it again. The launches were from the Mariupol area.”

[tabascoboy]

Unconfirmed rumours that another plane went down in the same vicinity as the A-50, and unrelated that yet another SU-34 was taken down elsewhere today. Wild speculation about F-16s possibly already having been put into operation but I reckon people are getting ahead of themselves and known facts at the moment.

[petej]

Unconfirmed rumours that another plane went down in the same vicinity as the A-50, and unrelated that yet another SU-34 was taken down elsewhere today. Wild speculation about F-16s possibly already having been put into operation but I reckon people are getting ahead of themselves and known facts at the moment.

Though fuck all point in announcing the arrival of the f16s. Leave the Russians ignorant as long as possible and the more air assets they will put at risk and you can shoot down.

The amount of hours the Russians are putting on those airframes and engines means quite a few will fall out of the sky without any assistance.

[tabascoboy]

Unconfirmed rumours that another plane went down in the same vicinity as the A-50, and unrelated that yet another SU-34 was taken down elsewhere today. Wild speculation about F-16s possibly already having been put into operation but I reckon people are getting ahead of themselves and known facts at the moment.

Though fuck all point in announcing the arrival of the f16s. Leave the Russians ignorant as long as possible and the more air assets they will put at risk and you can shoot down.

The amount of hours the Russians are putting on those airframes and engines means quite a few will fall out of the sky without any assistance.

It's not bad as psy-ops I guess, although I'm hoping that the purported improvement they will make for UA's capabilities isn't being exaggerated.

Back to the A-50 downing, looks like very little chance that any of the crew could survive, which is a big blow for RU

[tabascoboy]

Guess this might be the other plane that was claimed to have been downed, plus a pic showing the downed SU-34 mentioned before was put online from Kherson area although it's not confirmed to be actual with wreckage evidence

The Ukrainian Armed Forces just shot down a Russian Il-22M.

It’s an airborne command post and radio relay aircraft worth around USD 35 million.

Russia started the war with 12 of them, but now has significantly less of them.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We also have this: