What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Germany announced the transfer of a large package of military assistance to Ukraine

It will include:

- 5 tracked repair and recovery vehicles Warthog;
- 9 tracked Warthog all-terrain command vehicles;
- 6 WISENT 1 mine clearance vehicles;
- 2 BEAVER bridge laying machines;
- engineers of ARV Bergepanzer 2 and ARV 2A1 Dachs;
- 9 mine trawls;
- 3 vehicles for border protection;
- 6 Mercedes-Benz Zetros tankers;
- 14 Vector reconnaissance UAVs;
- 30 reconnaissance UAVs RQ-35 Heidrun;
- 5 drone jammers;
- ammunition for Leopard 2A6 tanks;
- 18,000 155 mm ammunition;
- SATCOM surveillance system;
- 330 infrared cameras;
- 2,056 RGW90 Matador grenade launchers;
- 70 GMG grenade launchers.

The government website reported that missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 20 Marder armored combat vehicles and other equipment are also being prepared for Ukraine.

What's going on in Ukraine?

That looks like a fairly random list of items to me. Does anyone knoe if that is what Ukraine has asked for to fill gaps in its armoury, or just what the Germans have lying around and can spare?

It's all very specific. A lot of the unsexy stuff is crucial logistics, reconnaissance, and mine-clearing equipment. Everything sent is according to what the Ukrainians request. If it seems a little bit random it's because there is lag time in the preparation of equipment for being sent; it either has to be produced new, re-activated from storage, or its simply the case that there are outstanding industry orders for other countries in the queue ahead. German procurement is a bit of a mess to be honest. But on top of that you have to take into account training time for Ukrainian troops.

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[Hellraiser]

[Niegs]

Poles getting ready:

[Random1]

This was published in December, so not sure if it’s old news, but I found it an interesting read about the potential Impact of the F16s

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAIN ... vwwqyylvw/

[Hellraiser]

Russia has lost 1239 T-72s (visually confirmed by @WarSpotting) There are a lot of variants but they fit into 3 main groups; B3, B and Old (A & Ural). This month March the most modern B3s all modernised 2013 or later have become a lot less common. mostly displaces in the loss numbers by the older B variants, built or modified between 1984 and 2012. The very old/unmodernised are still rare among the losses. There have only been 26 T-72s lost in March, a small sample, so I am not calling this a trend yet but will be looking to see if it's repeated in April. 1/2

[Hellraiser]

Poland has suspended it's adherence to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

[Uncle fester]

Poland has suspended it's adherence to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

What does this mean?

[tabascoboy]

I guess they are getting more anxious about a (possibly diversionary) attack on the Suwałki Gap, although Belarus have been much less bellicose about openly assisting RU the more this war continues.

Naturally the usual suspects are claiming that Poland wants to go into UA and annex part for itself

[tabascoboy]

An Su-27 apparently, reportedly shot down by friendly fire from a Pantsir AA with another friend or foe recognition failure

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher HighMarsed has published current data on the possible reserves of the Russian self-propelled gun 2S7 "Pion"/"Malka". At the beginning of a full-scale war, according to rough estimates, there were about 60 self-propelled guns of this type in service with the Russian Armed Forces; at least 21 of them were lost during combat operations and were visually confirmed. Practically the only storage base for these self-propelled guns was the 94th Arsenal in Omsk; only individual guns of this type were stored at other bases. At the beginning of the invasion, the number of “Peonies” in Omsk was 216 units; as of January 2024, it had decreased to 80. At the same time, the Russians were actively removing the barrels from the guns remaining at the base; by mid-2023, the researcher discovered at least 26 such units. Based on the small number of these self-propelled guns at storage bases, as well as the fact that not a single loss has been recorded for three months, HighMarsed concludes that their use by the invaders is already significantly limited by the lack of barrels, spare parts, and possibly even ammunition (caliber 203 mm requires separate production lines, and also wears out barrels much faster than artillery of smaller calibers). In general, the researcher suggests that there are about 80-100 “Peonies” left in service with the occupation army, and their capabilities for repairs and production of spare parts are practically non-existent.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

An Su-27 apparently, reportedly shot down by friendly fire from a Pantsir AA with another friend or foe recognition failure

There are conflicting reports about whether it was an Su-27 or an Su-35.

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

An Su-27 apparently, reportedly shot down by friendly fire from a Pantsir AA with another friend or foe recognition failure

There are conflicting reports about whether it was an Su-27 or an Su-35.

Are the Russian stil flying Su 27 ?

[Hellraiser]

An Su-27 apparently, reportedly shot down by friendly fire from a Pantsir AA with another friend or foe recognition failure

There are conflicting reports about whether it was an Su-27 or an Su-35.

Are the Russian stil flying Su 27 ?

Yep. The fuel dump incident with the Reaper drone last year was an Su-27. The RDF destroyed an Su-27 on the ground at an airbase in Belgorod earlier this month too.

[tabascoboy]

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[Hellraiser]

30.03.24 Avdiivka area, village Tonenke. Remember this date and area.

RUAF used:

- 36 tanks
- 12 BMPs

It’s the biggest amount of armour that was used in one charge since the beginning of the war.

12 tanks and 8 BMPs were taken out. Pure madness.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

'We have no army, we have a horde of slaves cowed by discipline, ordered about by thieves and slave traders. This horde is not an army because it possesses neither any real loyalty to faith, Tsar and fatherland - words that have been so much misused! - nor valour, nor military dignity. All it possesses are, on the one hand, passive patience and repressed discontent, and on the other cruelty, servitude and corruption.'

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Richard Vereker continues to record the fact that among the Russian losses of T-72 tanks, the number of older ones is rapidly growing. Apparently, Russian industry is unable to cover losses with tanks with modernizations, and T-72Bs removed from mothballing are sent into battle with minimal repairs. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu recently complained about delays in the delivery of weapons to the troops - in fact, this delay looks exactly like this.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Germany's Bundeswehr to receive unified operational command

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius aims to strengthen the armed forces' defence capabilities with a unified operational command and prepare for the possible reintroduction of compulsory military service, he said in Berlin on Thursday.

The Bundeswehr is to be reorganized along four branches with a joint support command, Pistorius announced at the presentation of the new structure.

In addition to the army, air force and navy, a fourth branch - the Cyber and Information Space (CIR) force, which specializes in electronic warfare and cyberoperations, reconnaissance and the protection of electronic infrastructure - will be upgraded to a separate branch of the military.

"The threat situation in Europe has intensified. It must be clear to everyone: We are defending our country and our alliance partners and are making it clear - again with this step - that no one should get the idea of attacking us as a NATO territory," Pistorius said.

"We have to convey this credibly and truthfully, and the Bundeswehr has to be positioned in line with the aforementioned requirements. I have given the armed forces six months to adapt."

The aim is also to allocate responsibilities more clearly and avoid duplicate structures, he said. "This is what matters in an emergency - or actually, one should say: in the event of war, in the event of defence. That is the aim we are pursuing with this reform."

The defence administration will "now be geared towards implementing the reinstatement of compulsory military service on the basis of this decision." If the country needs to be defended, there would be immediate conscription and the task would be to be able to implement this.

But whether Germany could or should reintroduce compulsory military service has been much debated. Pistorius is having models for this examined and is orientating himself on how Scandinavian countries handle this. The number of Bundeswehr soldiers has recently fallen to 181,500.

The law stipulates that suspended compulsory military service for men is revived if a state of tension or defence need occurs.

To date, the Bundeswehr has had an operational command in Schwielowsee near Potsdam for the planning and control of foreign missions such as in West Africa or the frigate Hessen in the Red Sea.

In addition, a territorial command for national defence was created in Berlin, where the operational plan (OPLAN) for the national defence of Germany was also developed. The two bodies have very different tasks, but also some possible overlaps.

In November, Pistorius proclaimed "war capability as a maxim for action" in new defence policy guidelines. He said that Inspector General Carsten Breuer and a state secretary should also take a look at the structures of the Bundeswehr itself and explicitly also at command organizations.

Pistorius wants to take action against duplicate structures that hinder and hold each other up.

Well this is a turn up for the books. It appears the Germans are going to re-establish a General Staff for the first time since 1945.

[Flockwitt]

Dayum. That’s getting the German army back into a functional fighting force.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

Dayum. That’s getting the German army back into a functional fighting force.

And they are on our side this time.
Putin's 3d chess.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainian drone attack on Morozovsk airbase last night destroyed 6 planes and seriously damaged another 8. A mix of Su-27s and Su-34s, no breakdown on numbers of each yet but regardless that's the single worst days fixed-wing aviation loss of the war so far. About 20 KIA/WIA personnel too, but no word on how many, if any, pilots.

[MungoMan]

Dayum. That’s getting the German army back into a functional fighting force.

There'll be a surge in Belgian emigration to Ireland real soon now.

[Hellraiser]

Fighters of the 67th OMBr showed a video of repelling a massive assault by Muscovites on the eastern outskirts of Chasovoy Yar

Katsaps carried out an attack, using a total of 32 pieces of equipment, of which 19 were destroyed. You can also see the great activity of enemy aviation, where 4 SU-25 boards were operating at the same time, the main task of which is air support. That is, the Muscovites carried out a combined massive assault, which was stopped by the Defense Forces in a heavy battle.

But along with that there is another big detail — IFS. With the process of activation of the enemy along the Bohdanivka-Khromovye-Ivanivske section, when the enemy was approaching the Yariv Heights, attention was paid to the construction of engineering and fortification structures, because there were many complaints and questions about the process. Along with this, the errors of the "prepared" defensive lines in the area of ​​Avdiyivka, which the enemy began to occupy, manifested themselves. We have all repeatedly heard about the statements of the command of the Khortytsia Security Guard that Chasiv Yar is being prepared for defense, where the IFS is being built. Now the katsaps came close to the city and even managed to reach its outskirts. The issue of defense training remains open and is already being tested in practice.

The situation is repeated again, when fighters are forced to hold back the enemy in the course of hostilities at the cost of their lives, with their own forces and means. And again we get into circumstances when it's getting late. And no matter how many media fortresses there are, it will not save the city.

One of the main tactics of Muscovites is that when they see opportunities and weak points, they concentrate their forces there and form a shock fist. Accordingly, in this situation, the enemy will repeat similar maneuvers and press there with even greater intensity. And they will not stop there. And they simply raze everything to the ground, using aviation and artillery, which has been happening to the city for a long time.

deepstatemap.live/#16/48.5954/37.8877

Map Blog Write to us ZSUHelp Shop Donat[/quote

[Hellraiser]

In the battles for Popasnaya and Bakhmut from March 2022 to May 2023, the Russian PMC Wagner lost 25 thousand servicemen killed. That's exactly how many mercenary badges are engraved on the monument in the Wagner Group chapel. Obviously, this figure does not include missing persons. According to the owner of the PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, half of those killed were prisoners, and the other half were volunteers. Representatives of Wagner previously called the figure of those killed in Ukraine 22 thousand; obviously, the increase in the figure is due to the gradual recognition of the dead Wagnerites, who were previously considered missing, and are recognized as killed in court. Thus, the figure of 25 thousand may not be final. And this is only 15 months and only one sector of the front. One can imagine the scale of losses on the entire front in all other crossings of the Russian Armed Forces. Putin is waging war until the last Russian, and is populating Russia with Tajiks and Uzbeks.

[Hellraiser]

[Slick]

Britain is still making a killing from Putin’s war machine

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ae46 ... bd7286998f

Let me know if it’s paywalled and I’ll cut and paste if anyone is interested. Mad stuff

[Niegs]

Britain is still making a killing from Putin’s war machine

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ae46 ... bd7286998f

Let me know if it’s paywalled and I’ll cut and paste if anyone is interested. Mad stuff

Cheers! Could read that... c&p'ing elsewhere, the chart disappeared, so I looked for an image and found an expanded one.

[Sandstorm]

Britain is still making a killing from Putin’s war machine

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ae46 ... bd7286998f

Let me know if it’s paywalled and I’ll cut and paste if anyone is interested. Mad stuff

Bent Britain? Notshocked

[Flockwitt]

It's point that's been well known for a while. Exactly how Russia's been able to keep it's drone fleet updated and effective. There also needs to be some balance, effective enforcement of the things that actually matter. Selling luxury cars is one thing - chipsets and optics quite another.

[Plim]

Niegs’ chart suggests the whole of Europe is on this train.

[Jethro]

Of course Trump has the answer, the Ukraine hands over the Crimea and some place else I've never heard off to the Russians to finish the war

In the future we can expect the Yanks to hand over Texas to the Mexicans in case of conflict between the two; similar logic

[Niegs]

[fishfoodie]

Of course Trump has the answer, the Ukraine hands over the Crimea and some place else I've never heard off to the Russians to finish the war

In the future we can expect the Yanks to hand over Texas to the Mexicans in case of conflict between the two; similar logic

and Alaska to the Orcs, & Louisiana to the Frogs, & maybe the Brits will get the colonies back .... actually the Mexicans would be getting short changed, they would be better off leaving Texas alone, & just getting California back

[Hellraiser]

The German government comissioned Rheinmetall to deliver 20 additional Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to the Ukraine. The order was placed in March 2024 and has a value in the mid double-digit million Euro range. The delivery of this new lot is scheduled within 2024. So far, Rheinmetall has already handed over a three-digit number of Marder IFVs to the Ukrainian Armed Forces via direct deliveries and circular exchange programmes.

The version of the 1A3 Marder that has now been ordered also features integrated laser range finders, which enable efficient and precise target elimination. The company had already supplied the first 20 of these combat vehicles to the Ukraine on behalf of the German government in March 2023. A number of further lots have since been delivered, each in two-figure numbers.

Rheinmetall acquired the overhauled 1A3 Marder IFV from the Bundeswehr. The company began overhauling the IFVs for immediate deployment at its own expense back in spring 2022. The corresponding work has since been underway at Rheinmetall's locations in Unterluess and Kassel.

The Marder IFV, which was developed for the Bundeswehr, and is still being operated there, is one of the world's most proven weapon systems of its kind. Over the course of its service life, the vehicle has been repeatedly modernised and improved in its combat effectiveness.

The Bundeswehr now has more than 300 Puma IFVs in operation, representing the latest generation of this type of combat vehicle, and gradually eliminating the Marder IFV in the German Army. In addition, a second lot of over 50 additional Pumas was ordered in 2023.

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/ne ... to-ukraine

[Hellraiser]