The Brexit Thread

[fishfoodie]

I wouldn't be so sure. He might have left it too late. The EU aren't in the mood to rush something through just to make him look competent. I don't think there's any way that an agreement, if they manage to get one, will be ratified by all 27 parliaments before 31 Dec. And there is no option to extend the current arrangement without again going back to all 27 parliaments (because it's a treaty change).

I don't think there's any chance of a deal being approved by the EU, while the IM Bill is in it's current form.

I'd expect Ireland to reject any proposed Deal on that alone.

But a deal means IM Bill gets cancelled of course.

I think we are in for an extention whatever the legal position is now, and then a much softer fluffier Brexit.

You had an extension, in fact you've had a bunch of them; & you've wasted every one of them, despite warnings not to; & your Government very public declared it wouldn't be asking for another, & the EU Chief Negotiator has long since reported back to the EU27, that you haven't been engaging in the negotiations, since Frost was made your Negotiator.

So again I ask; why the fuck should the EU give another extension ??

Unless there is a deal provisionally agreed, & it's just a case of needing a bit more time to get it approved, I don't see any chance of any more time being given.

[Bimbowomxn]

... with added tariffs, quotas and administration

WTO is a default, not something to aspire to

Or like 60% of our global trade currently. These are not unknown procedures. Also the same issue exists for the other party who are 90 billion onside ....

So to clarify, you are ok with all of the increased costs because of the added tariffs and the additional administration for 40% of our trade because we already do that for the other 60%.

Tariffs affect total trade by about 3-4% of turnover and is net in our favour regarding collection of tariffs .

And the point about them being a “known” cost and procedure is more than valid. The costs are tiny in any comparable measure,many certainly worth the democratic value of a vote being followed through on.

[Longshanks]

I don't think there's any chance of a deal being approved by the EU, while the IM Bill is in it's current form.

I'd expect Ireland to reject any proposed Deal on that alone.

But a deal means IM Bill gets cancelled of course.

I think we are in for an extention whatever the legal position is now, and then a much softer fluffier Brexit.

You had an extension, in fact you've had a bunch of them; & you've wasted every one of them, despite warnings not to; & your Government very public declared it wouldn't be asking for another, & the EU Chief Negotiator has long since reported back to the EU27, that you haven't been engaging in the negotiations, since Frost was made your Negotiator.

So again I ask; why the fuck should the EU give another extension ??

Unless there is a deal provisionally agreed, & it's just a case of needing a bit more time to get it approved, I don't see any chance of any more time being given.

You're a very angry man.
Brexit not my choice you know.

If you can't see why an extention would be best all round, then fine, it'll be no deal.
But I think there will be one.

[Rinkals]

So because of the withdrawal agreement we can't leave with no deal in a few weeks? Doesn't that seem like at best you're having a semantic debate on the terminology being used, which is fair enough I guess, but isn't going to much change the general usage of 'no deal' in the event we exit transition with, well, no deal.

Again, clearly not. We left the EU with a deal, it’s called the Withdrawl Agreement and covers huge amounts of legalities except for preferential trade agreements.

This time last year “no deal “ referred to the WA, this isn’t a semantic it’s a fact that the remain establishment moved the term on to the exclusive trade deal.

Trade with the EU continues whether there’s a trade deal or not.

Now anything else you want to try and misinterpret be my guest, I’ve been clear here what was meant and described it in crayon for you.

It's the 'a semantic' which makes it poetry. Best probably just to stick each other on ignore and get on with doing something more interesting instead

I hope you don't put him on ignore because I suspect that it would suit his purposes perfectly not to have to defend his bullshit.

You appear to be well versed in some of the topics that he claims unparalleled expertise in so if you were to withdraw it would give him the opportunity to expound without contradiction.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Meh, it's just screaming into the void, and not in a fun way. (Also I really don't think absent of some pushback to anyone posting here we should conclude that means people agree with or are swayed by a comment or set of comments)

[Tichtheid]

The EU accounts for 43% of UK export trade and 52% of imports, according to the House of Commons library.

If you include countries where the UK is part of the EU bloc trading deal with other countries, such as Israel and South Korea, those figures rise another 12% exports and 13% imports,

So 55% exports and 65% imports are subject to EU trade agreements and will have to be renegotiated after defaulting to WTO rules in a few weeks time.

When I get a moment I'll look up projections of what sort of hit no deal is expected to have on GDP and the economy as a whole.

[Bimbowomxn]

The EU accounts for 43% of UK export trade and 52% of imports, according to the House of Commons library.

If you include countries where the UK is part of the EU bloc trading deal with other countries, such as Israel and South Korea, those figures rise another 12% exports and 13% imports,

So 55% exports and 65% imports are subject to EU trade agreements and will have to be renegotiated after defaulting to WTO rules in a few weeks time.

When I get a moment I'll look up projections of what sort of hit no deal is expected to have on GDP and the economy as a whole.

And then be surprised by how small a % of GDP it is,

Oh.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/summary-of- ... -agreement

[Tichtheid]

The EU accounts for 43% of UK export trade and 52% of imports, according to the House of Commons library.

If you include countries where the UK is part of the EU bloc trading deal with other countries, such as Israel and South Korea, those figures rise another 12% exports and 13% imports,

So 55% exports and 65% imports are subject to EU trade agreements and will have to be renegotiated after defaulting to WTO rules in a few weeks time.

When I get a moment I'll look up projections of what sort of hit no deal is expected to have on GDP and the economy as a whole.

And then be surprised by how small a % of GDP it is,

Your welcome to do the footwork yourself and show the workings, I saw a brief mention of 7-8% hit on GDP, but I'm not committing to that before doing more research.

[Tichtheid]

Whatever the case, your 40% was just plain wrong, again.

[Bimbowomxn]

Whatever the case, your 40% was just plain wrong, again.

43?

And you realise we can do what we like on the imports ?

[Tichtheid]

Whatever the case, your 40% was just plain wrong, again.

43?

And you realise we can do what we like on the imports ?

55%

I just explained that.

Is this difficult to follow?

I'll spell it out, when we crash out of the EU we don't get the benefit of EU trade deals with other countries.

[Tichtheid]

And you realise we can do what we like on the imports ?

We really can't, not under WTO rules, we can't impose punitive tariffs.

[Bimbowomxn]

Your welcome to do the footwork yourself and show the workings, I saw a brief mention of 7-8% hit on GDP, but I'm not committing to that before doing more research.

You failed to notice that was over a 10 year time frame, so 0.7% of GDP per annum.

[Bimbowomxn]

And you realise we can do what we like on the imports ?

We really can't, not under WTO rules, we can't impose punitive tariffs.

I’m talking about importing things we want tariff free so imports where we what would be unaffected.

[Tichtheid]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

[fishfoodie]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

How much of a hit does services take in the event of a No Deal exit ?

That's always been the elephant in the room.

[Tichtheid]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

How much of a hit does services take in the event of a No Deal exit ?

That's always been the elephant in the room.

I've no idea, I'm a retired agricultural fencing contractor armed only with Duck Duck Go

I'd love for someone to come up with an answer, though.

[fishfoodie]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

How much of a hit does services take in the event of a No Deal exit ?

That's always been the elephant in the room.

I've no idea, I'm a retired agricultural fencing contractor armed only with Duck Duck Go

I'd love for someone to come up with an answer, though.

What kind of excuse is that ?? Demonic had a degree in History, & he rose to control the UK, without evening standing for Parliament !





Wouldn't it be great if the UK Government had done some kind of; I don't know; sectoral analysis; so they would know before they triggered Article-50, what the key areas that they needed to focus on in an FTA ....

[Sandstorm]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

How much of a hit does services take in the event of a No Deal exit ?

That's always been the elephant in the room.

UK firms using German labour in Germany have to pay German VAT rates on that labour. Ditto every other EU country. It’s a 21-24% reduction in competitive advantage after Brexit. We knew this in 2016 and 52% still voted for it.

[Tichtheid]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

How much of a hit does services take in the event of a No Deal exit ?

That's always been the elephant in the room.

UK firms using German labour in Germany have to pay German VAT rates on that labour. Ditto every other EU country. It’s a 21-24% reduction in competitive advantage after Brexit. We knew this in 2016 and 52% still voted for it.

I would argue that wasn't the reason just shy of 52% voted for Brexit, it was a far more populist reason than that, it was all about the lie that the EU was the reason people were in a shit situation.

[Northern Lights]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

I’m no fan of Brexit but the most basic of searches would throw up we’ve already signed a deal with Japan.

[Bimbowomxn]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

You were completely wrong about South Korea ...... why should we listen to anything else you proclaim. Point is average tariff would be around 3-4% on out bound goods, 6% on inbound (includes cars at 10%).

All you see are tiny tiny tiny losses and a continuation of most business.

Your societal perspective is a thing of horror so let’s pray you’re right about that.

[Bimbowomxn]

UK firms using German labour in Germany have to pay German VAT rates on that labour. Ditto every other EU country. It’s a 21-24% reduction in competitive advantage after Brexit. We knew this in 2016 and 52% still voted for it.

Go on tell us more regarding this disadvantage?

[Sandstorm]

UK firms using German labour in Germany have to pay German VAT rates on that labour. Ditto every other EU country. It’s a 21-24% reduction in competitive advantage after Brexit. We knew this in 2016 and 52% still voted for it.

Go on tell us more regarding this disadvantage?

I told you 4 years ago.

[Tichtheid]

Correction on a previous post - I omitted some deals we have with third party countries via the EU, so as per Full Fact

" in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU"

Of course this doesn't include EU deals that are still in negotiation with the likes of Japan and Australia, and it doesn't include “preferential trade agreements” the EU has with other countries as they are unilateral, but we do currently benefit from those deals.

As I say, when I get a moment I'll look into the projections for the impact of No Deal, but given that the Ultras are expecting GDP to take a hit, ie it will shrink, not grow, and that is probably their best-case scenario, you have to ask what the benefits are.

All I see are losses, economically, politically and from a societal perspective.

You were completely wrong about South Korea ...... why should we listen to anything else you proclaim. Point is average tariff would be around 3-4% on out bound goods, 6% on inbound (includes cars at 10%).

All you see are tiny tiny tiny losses and a continuation of most business.

Your societal perspective is a thing of horror so let’s pray you’re right about that.

I know this is where you lot dwell, the hand to hand personal stuff, I've seen your sort for over twenty years on the internet, but you are wrong yet again.

I used Full Fact as a source on South Korea, take it up with them.


On the other hand, you could point out the positives from Brexit, I see none.

You are very much at liberty to explain what we stand to gain from this shit show, rather than just being 0.7% worse off per year as a chunk of GDP - which is what you said earlier - do you think that is a positive?

[Tichtheid]

Update.

I see the UK signed a continuity agreement with South Korea on the 22nd of August this year. Two and a half months ago.

This guy thinks that makes Full Fact “completely wrong” and so anything posted subsequently by someone using them as a source should be thrown out.

Deary me.

[Bimbowomxn]

UK firms using German labour in Germany have to pay German VAT rates on that labour. Ditto every other EU country. It’s a 21-24% reduction in competitive advantage after Brexit. We knew this in 2016 and 52% still voted for it.

Go on tell us more regarding this disadvantage?

I told you 4 years ago.

Oh, ok then. Unlikely to be a real issue then.

[Bimbowomxn]

Update.

I see the UK signed a continuity agreement with South Korea on the 22nd of August this year. Two and a half months ago.

This guy thinks that makes Full Fact “completely wrong” and so anything posted subsequently by someone using them as a source should be thrown out.

Deary me.

That’s an odd way to say “I was completely wrong about South Korea”

You are very much at liberty to explain what we stand to gain from this shit show, rather than just being 0.7% worse off per year as a chunk of GDP - which is what you said earlier - do you think that is a positive?
Top

This year we will lose 7-9% of GDP ...

If I thought that 0.7% was anything more than a rounding error I’d worry. You lack any comparative ability it seems.

[Tichtheid]

Update.

I see the UK signed a continuity agreement with South Korea on the 22nd of August this year. Two and a half months ago.

This guy thinks that makes Full Fact “completely wrong” and so anything posted subsequently by someone using them as a source should be thrown out.

Deary me.

That’s an odd way to say “I was completely wrong about South Korea”

My information was out of date. Do we not currently trade with South Korea under EU rules and will switch over on the 1st of January?




However, moving on, what about the positives of Brexit, no deal or otherwise?

[Bimbowomxn]

Update.

I see the UK signed a continuity agreement with South Korea on the 22nd of August this year. Two and a half months ago.

This guy thinks that makes Full Fact “completely wrong” and so anything posted subsequently by someone using them as a source should be thrown out.

Deary me.

That’s an odd way to say “I was completely wrong about South Korea”

My information was out of date. Do we not currently trade with South Korea under EU rules and will switch over on the 1st of January?




However, moving on, what about the positives of Brexit, no deal or otherwise?

The positive is that democracy is strengthened and in this case up held. Aren’t you a supporter of Scottish Indy ? If they vote next time to leave will you be campaigning to remain because they’ll be no positives ?

[Sandstorm]

Goalposts ——->

[Bimbowomxn]

Goalposts ——->

It’s just an example of the positives.

[Tichtheid]

.

[Tichtheid]

Ok, so let’s say democracy is 37% of the electorate voting in favour of major constitutional change by way of a 52 to 48 point advantage. Let’s ignore the changing demographics that would lead to a different outcome if the vote were held now. Let’s ignore countries that voted overwhelmingly against that change being dragged out of the EU against the will of the people, lets ignore calls for a confirmatory referendum once people were more aware of what Brexit would actually entail.

What are the actual positives of the UK leaving the EU?

[Bimbowomxn]

Ok, so let’s say democracy is 37% of the electorate voting in favour of major constitutional change by way of a 52 to 48 point advantage. Let’s ignore countries that voted overwhelmingly against that change being dragged out of the EU against the will of the people, lets ignore calls for a confirmatory referendum once people were more aware of what Brexit would actually entail.

What are the actual positives of the UK leaving the EU?

That a democratic vote is upheld. I’ve no interest in leaping through hoops of 37% blah blah blah.

I also believe Scotland should have a re vote on Indy , due to the dichotomy of the EU vote. I also think if they vote to leave they should be allowed to. I look forward to the conformation vote once you’re told that there’s no currency union and that you owe many billions in sterling.

[sefton]

There’s no point discussing the merits of Brexit, it’s a done deal, there is no going back. The shitshow that this shambolic government has made of the negotiations on the other hand are an issue.

[Tichtheid]

Sandstorm was right about the goalposts, this is the Brexit thread.

So there are no positives aside from sticking to the outcome of that referendum? Is that what you are saying?

[Rhubarb & Custard]

There’s no point discussing the merits of Brexit, it’s a done deal, there is no going back. The shitshow that this shambolic government has made of the negotiations on the other hand are an issue.

Why is there no going back?

[Bimbowomxn]

Sandstorm was right about the goalposts, this is the Brexit thread.

So there are no positives aside from sticking to the outcome of that referendum? Is that what you are saying?

The following through on democracy in a democracy is a massive benefit once the vote had been had. I keep saying this and even tried to demonstrate this using something you expose.

I’ve again done this in crayon which seems again to have failed.

[sefton]

There’s no point discussing the merits of Brexit, it’s a done deal, there is no going back. The shitshow that this shambolic government has made of the negotiations on the other hand are an issue.

Why is there no going back?

Because Brexit has happened, that’s the reality. As much as I despise that choice and how it reflects on this country I can’t change that by arguing over something that is soon going to be for historians to reflect on.