What's going on in Ukraine?

[Uncle fester]

Any external observers at the elections?

[tabascoboy]

Any external observers at the elections?

Not that I've seen mentioned

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78ddj25kgvo

[Biffer]

Of course it's impossible to judge things as an outsider, but the apparent strengthening of support for openly Pro-Russia leadership and parties in parts of Eastern Europe where they would seem to have little reason to given the history is certainly mystifying. Granted that doesn't mean automatic majority preference for prospective EU or NATO membership but even so, if the results are a genuine expression - why the movement away from the West and towards Russia at this time of all times...?

BREAKING GEORGIA : In an emergency statement pro-European President Salomé Zourabichvili announced, “I do not recognize these elections; to do so is to accept Russia’s entry into Georgia and the submission of our country to Moscow.”

She continued, “We have been victims of Russian operations,” referring to the previous day’s parliamentary election results, which saw the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party claim victory. “This is a new form of hybrid warfare,” she concluded.

She calls for protests tomorrow at 19:00.

Président Zourabichvili at the presidential palace Theo Prouvost/Euromaidan Press

A lot of bought votes in Moldova apparently

[Flockwitt]

Confirmed is the Israeli strikes have caused significant damage to Iranian missile production capabilities.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

French Aid to Ukraine

The architecture of the future 155th OMBr "Anna Kyivska" (infographics provided by STEVIUS from Khvitteri ):

- 1st tank battalion (31 Leopard 2A4 tanks (those already in Ukraine), reconnaissance and air defense platoons);
- 1st mechanized battalion (40 VAB, fire support, reconnaissance and air defense platoons, mortar battery);
- 2nd mechanized battalion (40 VAB, fire support, reconnaissance and air defense platoons, mortar battery);
- 3rd mechanized battalion (40 VAB, fire support, reconnaissance and air defense platoons, mortar battery);
- 28th rifle battalion (3 rifle companies, a fire support company, a reconnaissance platoon and a mortar battery);
- Artillery group (18 CAESAR self-propelled guns and 20 Milan ATGM teams);
- Reconnaissance company (18 AMX-10RC), air defense platoon, engineer battalion and UAV unit.

Brigadier General: Colonel Dmytro Ryumshin

[tabascoboy]

Georgian opposition demands new elections under international oversight at a large rally in Tbilisi.

President Salome Zurabishvili addressed the crowd: "You did not lose the election. Your voice was stolen, and they tried to steal your future. No one has the right to do that."

Thousands have already joined the protests.

[tabascoboy]

Unprecedented: this morning around 6:30 am local time, the so-called "Russian Special Forces University named after Vladimir Putin" in Gudermes, Chechnya, was attacked by unidentified drones, as reported by Ramzan Kadyrov. According to him, the roof of an empty building caught fire, but this is debatable. As seen in the photo, the fire was quite extensive.

[tabascoboy]

The latest delusional nonsense

Russian media reported that a Russian court fined Google 2 undecillion rubles (2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000).

This fine was imposed on Google because the company failed to comply with the requirements to restore the accounts of 17 Russian YouTube channels, including Channel One, Russia 1, and others, as well as the YouTube channel of Margarita Simonyan. This amount doubles every Sunday.

An undecillion is a unit with 36 zeros, and 2 undecillion rubles is equivalent to 20 decillion dollars.

[inactionman]

The latest delusional nonsense

Russian media reported that a Russian court fined Google 2 undecillion rubles (2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000).

This fine was imposed on Google because the company failed to comply with the requirements to restore the accounts of 17 Russian YouTube channels, including Channel One, Russia 1, and others, as well as the YouTube channel of Margarita Simonyan. This amount doubles every Sunday.

An undecillion is a unit with 36 zeros, and 2 undecillion rubles is equivalent to 20 decillion dollars.

This is probably the first step in Russia trying to confiscate google assets, funds etc held in Russian and friendly countries.

[Hellraiser]

Croatia Sends M-84 Tanks and M-80 IFVs to Ukraine, Secures German Leopard 2A8s

🛡Croatia plans to supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) as part of a new defense agreement with Germany. To offset this transfer, Croatia will receive 50 Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany, the latest model from Rheinmetall, according to Croatia’s Ministry of Defense.

Originally Yugoslav-made, Croatia’s M-84s have been upgraded with enhanced mobility and communications, though protection remains limited without additional armor. The transfer agreement, signed by Croatian and German Defense Ministers Ivan Anušić and Boris Pistorius, includes funding from Germany for initial Croatian deliveries.

This deal strengthens Ukraine’s ground capabilities while modernizing Croatia’s defense. The Leopard 2A8s provide significant firepower and advanced protection, giving Croatia a defense boost while enabling Ukraine to reinforce its armored units against Russian forces.

An official Croatian financing decision for the Leopard acquisition is expected in November.

[Hellraiser]

The latest US aid package announced today will apparently include >200 Strykers.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

A piece on north Korean relations with China/Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c207gzprr33o

[Hellraiser]

[Jethro]

From the weird end of the supply chain, Australia is sending 49 main battle tanks to Ukraine? We would send a few subs as well, but apparently only one of the fleet is actually working.

[Hellraiser]

It appears there has already been friendly fire incidents involving the North Koreans in Kursk. A video of a Russian POW has emerged saying he and his companions were forced to approach Ukrainian positions and surrender because their own position was getting hammered by NK troops who they couldn't communicate with. At least two Russians in the group were killed.

[Hellraiser]

Sandu won the Moldovan presidential election. Thank fuck.

[tabascoboy]

Reassuring that the Pro-Russia candidate in Moldova appears to have been comfortably beaten

Pro-EU leader claims Moldova victory despite alleged Russian meddling

Moldova's pro-EU President Maia Sandu has claimed a second term after a tense election run-off seen as a choice between Europe and Russia.

With most votes counted Sandu had won 55%, and in a late-night speech she promised to be president for all Moldovans.

Her rival Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was backed by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, had called for a closer relationship with Moscow.

During the day the president's national security adviser said there had been "massive interference" from Russia in Moldova's electoral process that had "high potential to distort the outcome".

Russia had already denied meddling in the vote, which came a week after another key Eastern European election in Georgia, whose president said it had been a "Russian special operation".

Stoianoglo, who was fired as prosecutor general by Sandu, has denied being pro-Kremlin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7w9dglzzlo

[tabascoboy]

A speech by Alexander Borodai, a member of the Russian parliament and a participant in the war in Donbas since 2014, has leaked online, addressing the so-called Russian volunteers. He openly referred to them as "second-rate soldiers" and "surplus people," used solely to exhaust Ukrainian defenses. According to him, the hundreds of thousands joining the Russian army are ballast, incapable of productive activity.

This may explain the dismissive attitude toward Russian soldiers, who are sent into "meat grinder" assaults with little regard for casualties, despite official claims of their importance. Borodai holds significant positions in Russian power structures, so his description reflects the real view of Russia's leaders on the situation.

He claims this approach is necessary while Russia prepares for a more serious offensive from the rear. The only question is, knowing these facts, will ordinary Russian men continue to endure being treated as expendable, or will this issue eventually come to the surface?

[tabascoboy]

First snow of the season reported from the front lines, might not hang around though and then the mud season kicks in...

[Flockwitt]

Well it can't come soon enough. With the corruption and incompetence of the Ukrainians meaning the completion of proper secondary lines of defense just hasn't happened it will take the weather for Ukraine to have some hope of slowing down the Russian grind forward.

[_Os_]

Well it can't come soon enough. With the corruption and incompetence of the Ukrainians meaning the completion of proper secondary lines of defense just hasn't happened it will take the weather for Ukraine to have some hope of slowing down the Russian grind forward.

There's a noticeable dip in morale on Ukrainian social media accounts. Lots of Western media talking about wanting peace negotiations. Expectations aren't matching reality.

For Ukraine to get the best possible outcome it needed to cut the land bridge then pressure Crimea. Could make a long post on that: Zelensky didn't mobilise his forces on the eve of the full scale invasion which meant Russia caught Ukraine on the road or in their barracks in the south/Kherson, Azov tried to break through to Mariupol and relieve it before Russia built ground defences but also before Azov had access to Western weapons (they were stupidly prevented from using them at the time), 2023 offensive at a minimum needed to take Tokmak to put the land bridge under fire control but the density of ground defences and not having air superiority was too much, etc etc. Russia cannot be defeated on the battlefield or at the negotiation table whilst Russia has a secure hold on Crimea. It's not a conflict between "near peers", Russia is much stronger but also shit.

The reality Ukraine now faces is the best case outcomes are either: frozen conflict where it doesn't give up its claims on conquered lands (North/South Korea), or a resolution where Ukraine gives up claims to conquered territory in exchange for a deal with the Russians (Finlandisation). Problem is getting either requires not losing on the battlefield. Some Western commentators have talked about North/South Korea since 2022, but seem to forget that took foreign troops on the ground to achieve (it was a huge force too and not just Western countries, SA was there as was Ethiopia). Which leaves only Finlandisation, that would look a lot like a Putin victory to some (it wouldn't be), but if Ukraine wasn't supported politically/economically/militarily it would risk becoming a real Putin victory.

Any negotiation now would likely see Putin demanding insane things, like territory he's been unable to win through war: Odesa and Kharkiv, all of Ukraine that's majority Russian speaking. Putin does not care that this "Russian speaking" thing is a nonsense, large numbers of Russian speakers/ethnic Russians are fighting for Ukraine (just look at Azov). If he's going forward on the battlefield then he's going to use any negotiation to keep going forward.

Ukraine needs to escalate. North Korea is now involved in a huge way, Ukraine needs to bring in South Korea in whatever way possible to the maximum extent. Moldova needs to be reminded that if Ukraine gets a bad outcome, Moldova/Belarus/Georgia are all annexed by Russia not long after. Only Moldova has the geographic position and free enough politics to help Ukraine, helpfully it's also not a NATO country, small population but 50k men could be enough for Ukraine. If Ukraine does lose, Moldovans that wish to remain in Moldova will be fighting anyway, just as the non-ethnic Russian cannon fodder assaulting some Baltic city in the 2030s.

[_Os_]

The vids that are coming out do show Russia looks increasingly fucked though. Not all bad news for Ukraine. Staggering Russian losses in all these assaults and Russia visibly has a severe lack of armour.

The first Russian motorbike assault units appeared in April, by June it was commonplace. These weren't used in breakthroughs (legitimate use for this is to scout ahead of an advance), they were used instead of IFVs/APCs directly on Ukrainian positions:



Since then it has got a lot more crazy...

Assaulting Ukrainian positions through a minefield under artillery fire in a bakkie:



Assaulting Ukrainian positions in the Chinese glorified golf buggy:



Scooby Doo van bounces towards Ukrainian positions through minefield:



More motorcycles:



This vid shows what is happening really well. Russians released it because of all the FPV drone hits the BTR took without being immobilised. But there was also a Chinese golf buggy in that assault, which was immobilised. They're using completely unarmoured vehicles instead of armour.



E-scooter mounted Russians. Not on the frontline. But motorbikes/Scooby Doo vans/bakkies/Chinese golf buggies all started there too:

[_Os_]

This is what it looks like first person view in one of those Russian insane assaults.

On the ground assaulting Ukrainian positions without armour support and being hit by a swarm of FPV drones:



Mounted on a golf buggy and being hit by an FPV drone:



Plenty of the Russians partaking in this insanity are now in their 50s:

[_Os_]

The end point of this war is shaping up to be something like this:

10 Ukrainians each armed with a Leopard tank/Abrams tank/F16

vs

1000 Russians. The front of the horde is a meat shield of prisoners/North Koreans/non-ethnic Russians. Behind them the elite assault units, mounted on bicycles most are over 60 years old.

[tabascoboy]

A new meaning to the term "Battle-Hardened"?

A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

[_Os_]

Knowledgeable Ukrainian commentator (former UA officer) is picking the final outcome as some type of frozen conflict (North/South Korea). In a frozen conflict outcome Russia potentially achieves none of its aims. This started because of Putin's concerns over Ukraine's possible EU membership, it didn't start over NATO. Putin doesn't want a Russian speaking version of Poland on his border, which potentially means Russian citizens can see the entire GDP doesn't need to go into a Swiss bank account. A Finland outcome would mean talks and Russia getting something. If Putin gets nothing he immediately starts building for another go, and does it if Ukraine looks weak. Or keeps the conflict going at low intensity, huge ground defences which Russia fires missiles/artillery/glide bombs/drones over, preventing Ukraine ever properly rebuilding. Putin definitely doesn't want the South Korea part of a frozen conflict outcome, as I posted South Korea only happened with foreign intervention much larger than in Ukraine.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/22/ ... ssessment/

[Hal Jordan]

A new meaning to the term "Battle-Hardened"?

A usually reliable source tells me that the North Korean soldiers who have deployed to Russia have never had unfettered access to the internet before. As a result, they are gorging on pornography.

Colonel Leslie Hapablap is not impressed.

[fishfoodie]

The Orcs loot white goods; the North Koreans steal wank material

[Enzedder]

Have Ukraine given up yet? Unless Biden can get them a couple of hundred billion by January, they are fucked. Even Europe appears to be cooling off.

[Flockwitt]

Fuck.

That is all.

[Uncle fester]

We're on our own so.

[inactionman]

I'm not sure if I'm going mad, but I checked the ticker on the beeb first thing this morning and I'm sure that gave Trump 267 electoral votes - it's 266 now. Was there a recount or a correction somewhere?

It would be utterly hilarious if he could lose it from here. Won't happen, but his face would be a picture.



eta: there's probably a better thread for this....

[PornDog]

I've no doubt there'll still be plenty of lobbying for Military spending - and that will make Trump look biggly, so you never know, there might be some light there

[tabascoboy]

I dread to think what the "detail" of this means, but maybe there are compos mentis advisors in his sphere who will surprise us in a good way

This is what Donald Trump said one year ago. Let's see how he wants to solve the war.

"Before I even arrive in the Oval Office I will have the war between Russia and Ukraine settled. I will get the problem solved in rapid order, it will take me no longer than one day".

[petej]

I've no doubt there'll still be plenty of lobbying for Military spending - and that will make Trump look biggly, so you never know, there might be some light there

What trump says and does are different things. We don't have a clue.

[Sandstorm]

I've no doubt there'll still be plenty of lobbying for Military spending - and that will make Trump look biggly, so you never know, there might be some light there

What trump says and does are different things. We don't have a clue.

He’ll ask Israel to invade Russia.

[dkm57]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

[tabascoboy]

I've no doubt there'll still be plenty of lobbying for Military spending - and that will make Trump look biggly, so you never know, there might be some light there

What trump says and does are different things. We don't have a clue.

What he says once and then 30 minutes later can be different things. It's not good for Ukraine, but equally means that the Kremlin hawks have to be a bit wary as well