What's going on in Ukraine?

[Deepsouth]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

But surely the market will take care of that......

[_Os_]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

As I posted on the other thread, that's not what has really happened. In no particular order this is what NATO is/was about:

1. Projecting US power 2. Opposing Russia because it was/is a threat to US power 3. Preventing the traditional European powers opposing the US by tying them into the US alliance network 4. Paying/supplying Europe to fight any future war so US young men didn't have to.

The payoff for Europe was having US protection. A massive upside to counterbalance all the downsides. Trump ending NATO/US support would be a US betrayal of more than Ukraine. The deal was the great European powers give up their empires and do not oppose the US militarily or otherwise, and in return the US would provide security for Europe. The deal wasn't give the US everything and when Russia does attack you're naked in a park with a blizzard on the way.

Without the US a lot of calculations will change in Europe. Germany has hurt its own economy to adopt the US position of maximum opposition to Russia. It makes little sense for Germany to import expensive US energy and not cheap Russian energy, if the US is providing Germany little to nothing for making that choice. Without the US one of the more logical options for Germany is closer relations with Russia so its economy is fed cheap raw materials, and a larger military not to fight Russia on behalf of any Eastern European country when Russia invades but to make invading Germany impossible if/when Russia reaches German borders. If Germany did act like that, in other words if it adopted the MAGA position but for Germans, they would dominate Europe more than they do already. The US would then say Germany is an enemy and not Western etc.

It has happened before, check out what Trump was saying about Japan in the 1980s/1990s. There was an American panic about Japanese power, which Trump was part of.

[Uncle fester]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

[Biffer]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

The Finns would also be right in there.

[_Os_]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

Depends. Russia put very little into the 2014 invasion. Russians see Ukrainians as Russians or brothers/cousins, parts of the 2022 invasion were odd, riot police appearing in Kyiv and that sort of thing. They didn't immediately go full "destroy entire cities".

Poles are different, they're not seen as Russians. If the Poles don't have nukes, and Russia drop some small ones to show they're serious, is anyone nuking Russia on behalf of Poland, is anyone even committing troops on the ground on behalf of Poland? Obviously the Russian military is fucked at the moment, so none of this is happening any time soon. But they'll rebuild.

If I was Polish I would be demanding Poland become nuclear armed. If I was German too. If I was Finnish too.

[Biffer]

Blindingly obvious. he's going to hand his best buddy putrid everything he wants and give the green light to invade the Baltics and any other Eastern European nation he takes a fancy to.

Europe needs to step up to the plate but given the calibre of leaders, with a couple of exceptions, I'm not hopeful. NATO has similarly turned into a meaningless talking shop. Far too many years relying on the US to come to the rescue, now they've taken the ball home our leaders have left us standing naked in the middle of the park with a blizzard on the way.

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

Depends. Russia put very little into the 2014 invasion. Russians see Ukrainians as Russians or brothers/cousins, parts of the 2022 invasion were odd, riot police appearing in Kyiv and that sort of thing. They didn't immediately go full "destroy entire cities".

Poles are different, they're not seen as Russians. If the Poles don't have nukes, and Russia drop some small ones to show they're serious, is anyone nuking Russia on behalf of Poland, is anyone even committing troops on the ground on behalf of Poland? Obviously the Russian military is fucked at the moment, so none of this is happening any time soon. But they'll rebuild.

If I was Polish I would be demanding Poland become nuclear armed. If I was German too. If I was Finnish too.

Stop drinking the koolaid. Russia isn't going to use nukes. If they do that, then nuclear non proliferation is out of the window and every country that feels threatened by Russia pursues a nuclear programme. That in turn takes away Russia's status as a nuclear power, removes the point of having them on the security council at the UN and apart from anything else, given how corrupt the russian military are and the way everything has had money skimmed off the top, middle and bottom, are we really sure their nukes would actually work?

[inactionman]

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

Depends. Russia put very little into the 2014 invasion. Russians see Ukrainians as Russians or brothers/cousins, parts of the 2022 invasion were odd, riot police appearing in Kyiv and that sort of thing. They didn't immediately go full "destroy entire cities".

Poles are different, they're not seen as Russians. If the Poles don't have nukes, and Russia drop some small ones to show they're serious, is anyone nuking Russia on behalf of Poland, is anyone even committing troops on the ground on behalf of Poland? Obviously the Russian military is fucked at the moment, so none of this is happening any time soon. But they'll rebuild.

If I was Polish I would be demanding Poland become nuclear armed. If I was German too. If I was Finnish too.

Stop drinking the koolaid. Russia isn't going to use nukes. If they do that, then nuclear non proliferation is out of the window and every country that feels threatened by Russia pursues a nuclear programme. That in turn takes away Russia's status as a nuclear power, removes the point of having them on the security council at the UN and apart from anything else, given how corrupt the russian military are and the way everything has had money skimmed off the top, middle and bottom, are we really sure their nukes would actually work?

I'd assume they'd cause an unholy mess, just not necessarily where Russia intended to create the mess.

I've been (very pleasantly) surprised how little we've heard of the use of chemical agents - recognising reports of the use of CS gas etc in certain places. I had worried that, if Russia got bogged down, they'd drop something truly nasty but short of tactical nuke onto the defenders. Putin knows that could very quickly and easily be reciprocated, but at least the sarin/novochik etc seems to be reserved for expat spies and not civilian populations.

[_Os_]

Let's be real here. Yes, this result is good news for Putin but Russia has struggled to overcome a neighboring former soviet republic even before western aid was given. If Russia tries anything with any of the main NATO partners, they'll get their asses kicked and I'd put money on the poles being in Moscow in a week.

Depends. Russia put very little into the 2014 invasion. Russians see Ukrainians as Russians or brothers/cousins, parts of the 2022 invasion were odd, riot police appearing in Kyiv and that sort of thing. They didn't immediately go full "destroy entire cities".

Poles are different, they're not seen as Russians. If the Poles don't have nukes, and Russia drop some small ones to show they're serious, is anyone nuking Russia on behalf of Poland, is anyone even committing troops on the ground on behalf of Poland? Obviously the Russian military is fucked at the moment, so none of this is happening any time soon. But they'll rebuild.

If I was Polish I would be demanding Poland become nuclear armed. If I was German too. If I was Finnish too.

Stop drinking the koolaid. Russia isn't going to use nukes. If they do that, then nuclear non proliferation is out of the window and every country that feels threatened by Russia pursues a nuclear programme. That in turn takes away Russia's status as a nuclear power, removes the point of having them on the security council at the UN and apart from anything else, given how corrupt the russian military are and the way everything has had money skimmed off the top, middle and bottom, are we really sure their nukes would actually work?

The current situation is Ukraine gave up their nukes for a piece of paper signed by the US/UK/Russia (Budapest Memorandum), on that piece of paper it says everything happening now was supposed to be impossible because Ukraine pledged not to have nukes.

If I'm Polish I'm seeing what has happened to Ukraine, which whatever the final outcome has suffered catastrophic damage/largescale loss of life/emigration in the millions. I'm then also seeing that potentially if your country gets destroyed the US elects a madman intent on selling you out. I'm also seeing Russian propaganda constantly make claims Poland will be nuked to teach Poles a lesson.

If I'm Polish and seeing all this I'm thinking "fuck this, we need nukes capable of wiping Moscow off the map".

[tabascoboy]

Diplomatic way to say "hope you aren't going to fuck us over"!

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has congratulated US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on his "impressive victory in the election."

"I recall our wonderful meeting with President Trump in September, when we discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the Victory Plan, and ways to end Russian aggression against Ukraine. I appreciate President Trump's commitment to a "peace through strength" approach to global affairs. It is this principle that can really bring a just peace to Ukraine. I hope that we will implement it together." - Zelenskyy said.

He added that Ukraine is looking forward to an era of strong United States under President Trump's leadership and counts on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.

[Thor Sedan]

Seems like Zelensky understands that to get trumps favour - you need to fluff him.

I have become less concerned about Russia as a military power. If a couple of NATO Nations start pushing back (particularly Poland) - Russia will run.

Russia barely managed to make gains against Ukraine standing on their own - and they are pretty much stalemating with massive meat waves being their tactic of choice.

The nukes are a problem - but it feels like not even Putin would cross that line (although I thought the US would turn their back on trump - so what the f**k do I know).

[tabascoboy]

Here lies such a problem, for most nations this would be simply unsustainable morally and socially just for the sake of gaining 100m here or 200m there unless it was a purely defensive existential war. Yet Russia shows no signs whatsoever of ceasing this. How do you even contemplate good faith negotiations when there is a clear contempt for the value of human lives, whether Russia for themselves or their Ukrainian victims?

The blogger had best not go near any windows in the future though...

Russian blogger Kashevarova on Russia's assault units: Less than three weeks pass between signing a contract and the death of the average Russian assault soldier. In an attempt to maintain the pace of these meat offensives, 18-year-old boys are recruited at a high cost and immediately sent into the bloodbath in Ukraine.

[petej]

Here lies such a problem, for most nations this would be simply unsustainable morally and socially just for the sake of gaining 100m here or 200m there unless it was a purely defensive existential war. Yet Russia shows no signs whatsoever of ceasing this. How do you even contemplate good faith negotiations when there is a clear contempt for the value of human lives, whether Russia for themselves or their Ukrainian victims?

The blogger had best not go near any windows in the future though...

Russian blogger Kashevarova on Russia's assault units: Less than three weeks pass between signing a contract and the death of the average Russian assault soldier. In an attempt to maintain the pace of these meat offensives, 18-year-old boys are recruited at a high cost and immediately sent into the bloodbath in Ukraine.

For me this is one of the biggest incorrect assumptions I made. I assumed that killing your own population off in such large numbers would not be accepted by Russian society.

[Biffer]

Seems like Zelensky understands that to get trumps favour - you need to fluff him.

I have become less concerned about Russia as a military power. If a couple of NATO Nations start pushing back (particularly Poland) - Russia will run.

Russia barely managed to make gains against Ukraine standing on their own - and they are pretty much stalemating with massive meat waves being their tactic of choice.

The nukes are a problem - but it feels like not even Putin would cross that line (although I thought the US would turn their back on trump - so what the f**k do I know).

Western equipped nations that actually want to fight Russia - Poland, Finland, and a lot of other Eastern European countries - would rip Russian armies apart. And they would have no hesitation at all in killing thousands upon thousand of Russians and North Koreans. And Iranian ps and Chinese if it came to it.

Even without the USA, NATO would blast Russia off the battlefield very quickly.

Russia has a military that is thirty years out of date. China has been comparing its military to Russia and thought it was well equipped. They’re also well behind western forces. And they don’t have a single soldier who has been in battle.

[Jethro]

Seems like Zelensky understands that to get trumps favour - you need to fluff him.

I have become less concerned about Russia as a military power. If a couple of NATO Nations start pushing back (particularly Poland) - Russia will run.

Russia barely managed to make gains against Ukraine standing on their own - and they are pretty much stalemating with massive meat waves being their tactic of choice.

The nukes are a problem - but it feels like not even Putin would cross that line (although I thought the US would turn their back on trump - so what the f**k do I know).

Western equipped nations that actually want to fight Russia - Poland, Finland, and a lot of other Eastern European countries - would rip Russian armies apart. And they would have no hesitation at all in killing thousands upon thousand of Russians and North Koreans. And Iranian ps and Chinese if it came to it.

Even without the USA, NATO would blast Russia off the battlefield very quickly.

Russia has a military that is thirty years out of date. China has been comparing its military to Russia and thought it was well equipped. They’re also well behind western forces. And they don’t have a single soldier who has been in battle.

Don't discount the Chinese making a move in Siberia, they know the Russian military would be hard pressed to fight it's way out of a wet paper bag and all those resources must be enticing to their floundering economy. Chinese maps now use the former Chinese names rather than Russian place names for Siberia, found for thought. And hey the Germans might be thinking third time lucky with Polish help. Okay one of those concepts is tongue in cheek.

[Flockwitt]

Chinese will move on Taiwan before Siberia. They want Russia's support for when the going gets rough with that first. Then they'll stab the Russians in the back

[Uncle fester]

Seems like Zelensky understands that to get trumps favour - you need to fluff him.

I have become less concerned about Russia as a military power. If a couple of NATO Nations start pushing back (particularly Poland) - Russia will run.

Russia barely managed to make gains against Ukraine standing on their own - and they are pretty much stalemating with massive meat waves being their tactic of choice.

The nukes are a problem - but it feels like not even Putin would cross that line (although I thought the US would turn their back on trump - so what the f**k do I know).

Western equipped nations that actually want to fight Russia - Poland, Finland, and a lot of other Eastern European countries - would rip Russian armies apart. And they would have no hesitation at all in killing thousands upon thousand of Russians and North Koreans. And Iranian ps and Chinese if it came to it.

Even without the USA, NATO would blast Russia off the battlefield very quickly.

Russia has a military that is thirty years out of date. China has been comparing its military to Russia and thought it was well equipped. They’re also well behind western forces. And they don’t have a single soldier who has been in battle.

Said the same thing a bit back.

What the Russians will do however is try to set us against each other. They've been quite good at this.

Had a call with one of my German colleagues yesterday and his Giggle when I said "the Germans are on our side this time" kind of worried me a little.

[PornDog]

Ryan McBeth's take on what Trump means for Ukraine -

[tabascoboy]

Conjecture over "negotiations" still getting more fatalistic on the whole, can we avoid pulling away from a hard line against the Kremlin and slowly conceding bargaining points?

Ukraine, Europe, and the Art of the Deal

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine even before being sworn in. He has explicitly refrained from providing any details as to how exactly he may do that, arguing it would be foolish to show his cards before any such negotiation. Any possible deal entailing a peace-for-territories trade would represent a significant reversal from President Joe Biden’s promise to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” It would also fly in the face of Europe’s preference to continue to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s war of aggression. It is therefore important to explore Europe’s response options to a possible Trump-led peace deal for Ukraine. We argue that Europe (i.e., E.U. countries plus the United Kingdom) is unlikely to either prevent a deal from happening or fill the void left by a hypothetical U.S. decision to pull the plug on Ukraine aid. Instead, it should focus its energies on ensuring that any future deal is sustainable and guarantees Ukraine’s survival as an independent country, ideally by bringing Kyiv into NATO and the European Union.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusion

To recap, in the event of Trump pushing ahead with a peace deal for Ukraine, Europe should refrain from trying to prevent the deal from happening and focus instead on trying to influence the deal’s landing zone. Any such deal would entail some sort of trade-off between peace and territories. But the devil lies in the details, and there are many questions about what kind of peace and which territories should conform to the deal. Concretely, European efforts should focus on two key aspects: securing as much of Ukraine’s south as possible, and ensuring the deal is as sustainable as possible, ideally through the offer of NATO and E.U. membership to Ukraine. We have outlined the levers Europe could draw on to influence the deal’s landing zone. While Ukraine’s backers may have failed to carry through “for as long as it takes,” they would still have a chance to fight for an acceptable alternative.

Of course the whole story should be read for detail and context

[tabascoboy]

From the Daily Mail so to be read with a certain amount of scepticism maybe. Presumably he has already discussed this matter with the European parties concerned and not just pulled this out of his ass

Trump 'wants British and European troops sent to enforce 800-mile buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine' as part of his peace plan - as he prepares to speak to Putin

Donald Trump may call for a 800-mile demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine as part of a plan to end the war the early.

The proposal, which has been outlined by three Trump staffers, would involve the zone being policed by British and European troops.

It would mean that Russia would keep its territorial gains made in Ukraine with the current border frozen in place. Kyiv would also have to assure that it would not join NATO for 20 years.

Under the plans the US would arm Ukraine in return for preventing Russia from restarting the war. However, responsibility for manning and financing the buffer zone would fall solely on Ukraine's European allies.

[Biffer]

From the Daily Mail so to be read with a certain amount of scepticism maybe. Presumably he has already discussed this matter with the European parties concerned and not just pulled this out of his ass

Trump 'wants British and European troops sent to enforce 800-mile buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine' as part of his peace plan - as he prepares to speak to Putin

Donald Trump may call for a 800-mile demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine as part of a plan to end the war the early.

The proposal, which has been outlined by three Trump staffers, would involve the zone being policed by British and European troops.

It would mean that Russia would keep its territorial gains made in Ukraine with the current border frozen in place. Kyiv would also have to assure that it would not join NATO for 20 years.

Under the plans the US would arm Ukraine in return for preventing Russia from restarting the war. However, responsibility for manning and financing the buffer zone would fall solely on Ukraine's European allies.

If that's four hundred miles either side of the border, Russia can't have troops in Moscow.

The man's a fucking idiot.

Equally, Ukraine couldn't have troops in Kiev.

[inactionman]

From the Daily Mail so to be read with a certain amount of scepticism maybe. Presumably he has already discussed this matter with the European parties concerned and not just pulled this out of his ass

Trump 'wants British and European troops sent to enforce 800-mile buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine' as part of his peace plan - as he prepares to speak to Putin

Donald Trump may call for a 800-mile demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine as part of a plan to end the war the early.

The proposal, which has been outlined by three Trump staffers, would involve the zone being policed by British and European troops.

It would mean that Russia would keep its territorial gains made in Ukraine with the current border frozen in place. Kyiv would also have to assure that it would not join NATO for 20 years.

Under the plans the US would arm Ukraine in return for preventing Russia from restarting the war. However, responsibility for manning and financing the buffer zone would fall solely on Ukraine's European allies.

I suspect he has just pulled it from his arse - this would go down like a bucket of sick for everyone except Putin.

I thought the BAOR was defunct. Not sure we want a BAOD, which will be required essentially in perpetuity

[Biffer]

Russian drone hits sovereign territory of a NATO member.

One which spends more than the amount Trump wants members to spend on defence, so should be in his good books.

[Uncle fester]

Russian drone hits sovereign territory of a NATO member.

One which spends more than the amount Trump wants members to spend on defence, so should be in his good books.

Poland?
Linky?

[Biffer]

Russian drone hits sovereign territory of a NATO member.

One which spends more than the amount Trump wants members to spend on defence, so should be in his good books.

Poland?
Linky?

Estonia. Anyone genuinely think that's by chance?

https:// twitter.com/TheFl0orIsLaVa/status/1854846120079315105?t=o8fPB7XQwBjACmnrJ1sv6A&s=19

[Uncle fester]

From the Daily Mail so to be read with a certain amount of scepticism maybe. Presumably he has already discussed this matter with the European parties concerned and not just pulled this out of his ass

Trump 'wants British and European troops sent to enforce 800-mile buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine' as part of his peace plan - as he prepares to speak to Putin

Donald Trump may call for a 800-mile demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine as part of a plan to end the war the early.

The proposal, which has been outlined by three Trump staffers, would involve the zone being policed by British and European troops.

It would mean that Russia would keep its territorial gains made in Ukraine with the current border frozen in place. Kyiv would also have to assure that it would not join NATO for 20 years.

Under the plans the US would arm Ukraine in return for preventing Russia from restarting the war. However, responsibility for manning and financing the buffer zone would fall solely on Ukraine's European allies.

If that's four hundred miles either side of the border, Russia can't have troops in Moscow.

The man's a fucking idiot.

Equally, Ukraine couldn't have troops in Kiev.

They are big countries and all but yeah, 400 miles is daft. Just a starting point for Putin to talk trump down to 50-100 miles and it's all inside Ukraine so he can mass troops on his border again.

[Uncle fester]

Russian drone hits sovereign territory of a NATO member.

One which spends more than the amount Trump wants members to spend on defence, so should be in his good books.

Poland?
Linky?

Estonia. Anyone genuinely think that's by chance?

https:// twitter.com/TheFl0orIsLaVa/status/1854846120079315105?t=o8fPB7XQwBjACmnrJ1sv6A&s=19

Embassy in a war zone isn't quite the same thing.

[Biffer]

Poland?
Linky?

Estonia. Anyone genuinely think that's by chance?

https:// twitter.com/TheFl0orIsLaVa/status/1854846120079315105?t=o8fPB7XQwBjACmnrJ1sv6A&s=19

Embassy in a war zone isn't quite the same thing.

Do you genuinely believe that's an accident?

[tabascoboy]

From the Daily Mail so to be read with a certain amount of scepticism maybe. Presumably he has already discussed this matter with the European parties concerned and not just pulled this out of his ass

Trump 'wants British and European troops sent to enforce 800-mile buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine' as part of his peace plan - as he prepares to speak to Putin

Donald Trump may call for a 800-mile demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine as part of a plan to end the war the early.

The proposal, which has been outlined by three Trump staffers, would involve the zone being policed by British and European troops.

It would mean that Russia would keep its territorial gains made in Ukraine with the current border frozen in place. Kyiv would also have to assure that it would not join NATO for 20 years.

Under the plans the US would arm Ukraine in return for preventing Russia from restarting the war. However, responsibility for manning and financing the buffer zone would fall solely on Ukraine's European allies.

If that's four hundred miles either side of the border, Russia can't have troops in Moscow.

The man's a fucking idiot.

Equally, Ukraine couldn't have troops in Kiev.

Reckon it means the 800 mile length of the active front line with a DMZ strip like the Koreas. Still an asinine idea though

[Uncle fester]

Estonia. Anyone genuinely think that's by chance?

https:// twitter.com/TheFl0orIsLaVa/status/1854846120079315105?t=o8fPB7XQwBjACmnrJ1sv6A&s=19

Embassy in a war zone isn't quite the same thing.

Do you genuinely believe that's an accident?

I don't believe Russia has the capability to be accurate enough to specifically target the embassy.

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

[tabascoboy]

Well, this seems to be a first

Russia jails soldiers who killed entire family in Ukraine

A Russian court has sentenced two Russian soldiers to life in prison for killing a family of nine in occupied Ukraine, in a rare example of the country holding its troops to account for alleged war crimes.

The entire Kapkanets family were killed in their home in the Donetsk region last year by Anton Sopov, 21, and Stanislav Rau, 28, prosecutors said. Among the victims were two children aged five and nine.

The family had been celebrating a birthday at the time, Ukraine's ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said a day after the killings.

Some details of the case are unclear, such as whether the soldiers pleaded guilty, as the trial was held behind closed doors due to military secrecy, Russian media reported.

Sopov and Rau were convicted of killing 53-year-old Eduard Kapkanets, his wife Tatiana, their adult sons with their wives, a nine-year-old granddaughter, a four-year-old grandson and a more distant relative of the family.

Ukrainian officials at the time said they believed the family was murdered for refusing to give up their house to the Russian troops.

State news agency Tass reported that the men had been convicted for murder "motivated by political, ideological, racial, national or religious hatred".

The Ukrainian city of Volnovakha was captured by Russian forces just weeks after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Most of the town has been destroyed.

Russia denies all allegations of war crimes in Ukraine, despite well-documented evidence to the contrary.

This includes the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol which had been sheltering hundreds of people in March 2022 and the killing of hundreds of people in the town of Bucha that month.

Russian forces are also accused of running a network of torture chambers across occupied Ukraine, where civilians and prisoners of war are tortured and in some cases killed.

The UN has accused Russian forces in Ukraine of rapes, "widespread" torture and killings and the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Vladimir Putin's arrest.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn012ed0z2ro

[_Os_]

Obviously Trump committing to ending the conflict before he's in office, strips him of his strongest negotiating position, that'll he'll continue supporting Ukraine or increase the conflict. But his plan doesn't appear to make much sense. There's two options without either side winning:

Frozen conflict: There's a DMZ like in North/South Korea, neither side gives up their claims, neither side has any control over the sovereignty of the other.
Finlandisation: Ukraine gives up land for peace, could also be some control by Russia over Ukrainian sovereignty (membership of NATO).

These are two different and distinct outcomes, they're not the same. If Ukraine is formerly ceding territory and Russia has some control over Ukrainian sovereignty, where is the peace and why is their a DMZ patrolled by Europeans (and not the brilliant US partners, of course)?

Finlandisation isn't the worst outcome, if there's enough in the deal to actually become Finland.

[Calculon]

Obviously Trump committing to ending the conflict before he's in office, strips him of his strongest negotiating position, that'll he'll continue supporting Ukraine or increase the conflict. But his plan doesn't appear to make much sense. There's two options without either side winning:

Frozen conflict: There's a DMZ like in North/South Korea, neither side gives up their claims, neither side has any control over the sovereignty of the other.
Finlandisation: Ukraine gives up land for peace, could also be some control by Russia over Ukrainian sovereignty (membership of NATO).

These are two different and distinct outcomes, they're not the same. If Ukraine is formerly ceding territory and Russia has some control over Ukrainian sovereignty, where is the peace and why is their a DMZ patrolled by Europeans (and not the brilliant US partners, of course)?

Finlandisation isn't the worst outcome, if there's enough in the deal to actually become Finland.

Russia incorporating a large percentage of Ukraine including most of its natural resources, and having control over Ukraine's sovereignty to the extent that it veto it's application to international organizations ...... is a fuckiing terrible outcome and one which the Russians would be absolutely delighted with.

[tabascoboy]

Maybe we could put a spin on it that the Incoming Trump administration wants to keep Russia guessing about its actual intentions and plans for Ukraine and negotiations, but they are all over the place with statements at the moment.

Trump team disavows advisor's stance on Ukraine territorial concessions for peace - Reuters.

Earlier, Bryan Lanza suggested that if Ukraine insists on regaining Crimea, they may have to proceed without US support, saying, “Crimea is gone.”

[tabascoboy]

Putin’s crony bloggers are highlighting the catastrophic drop in birth rates in Russia. In 2014, almost 2 million babies were born; in 2023, that figure was nearly 700,000 lower, and it’s dropping even further in 2024.

But, strangely, these clowns blame Deputy Prime Minister for Social Policy Golikova and some “liberals” for the failure of the demographic system. They’re practically foaming at the mouth over her. As if the suicidal war, economic crisis, and meat assaults ordered by the Kremlin’s butcher have nothing to do with it.

[Hellraiser]

The expansion of Russia's defence industrial base is illusory.

https://jamestown.org/program/arms-manu ... no-growth/

[fishfoodie]

Biden is US President, & immune from prosecution until January; if he feels the need to transfer say 10 tactical nuclear warheads to Ukraine, & similar to Finland, & maybe a couple to the Baltic Republics, & anything else in the Army warehouses that Ukraine asked for, then that's within his authority.

It wouldn't hurt to let it leak to the Orcs that Ukraine was now a nuclear power too thanks to Putin & the Traitor !

MAD kept the peace for 50 years, & if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes !!!

[lemonhead]

Biden is US President, & immune from prosecution until January; if he feels the need to transfer say 10 tactical nuclear warheads to Ukraine, & similar to Finland, & maybe a couple to the Baltic Republics, & anything else in the Army warehouses that Ukraine asked for, then that's within his authority.

It wouldn't hurt to let it leak to the Orcs that Ukraine was now a nuclear power too thanks to Putin & the Traitor !

MAD kept the peace for 50 years, & if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes !!!

Interesting to consider.

Any thought of legacy and passing the blue baton's up in flames so realistically 7-8 weeks to finally do whatever it takes. Which sadly may not be much at all, but here's hoping.

[Sandstorm]

Biden is US President, & immune from prosecution until January; if he feels the need to transfer say 10 tactical nuclear warheads to Ukraine, & similar to Finland, & maybe a couple to the Baltic Republics, & anything else in the Army warehouses that Ukraine asked for, then that's within his authority.

It wouldn't hurt to let it leak to the Orcs that Ukraine was now a nuclear power too thanks to Putin & the Traitor !

MAD kept the peace for 50 years, & if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes !!!

Pretty stupid idea. Zelensky is somewhat competent and trustworthy, but the next Ukrainian off the lot could a fucking psycho who’ll fire the nukes at Russia or sell them to Iran.

[Hellraiser]

Biden is US President, & immune from prosecution until January; if he feels the need to transfer say 10 tactical nuclear warheads to Ukraine, & similar to Finland, & maybe a couple to the Baltic Republics, & anything else in the Army warehouses that Ukraine asked for, then that's within his authority.

It wouldn't hurt to let it leak to the Orcs that Ukraine was now a nuclear power too thanks to Putin & the Traitor !

MAD kept the peace for 50 years, & if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes !!!

Pretty stupid idea. Zelensky is somewhat competent and trustworthy, but the next Ukrainian off the lot could a fucking psycho who’ll fire the nukes at Russia or sell them to Iran.

That's unlikely to the point of being fantasy.

[fishfoodie]

Biden is US President, & immune from prosecution until January; if he feels the need to transfer say 10 tactical nuclear warheads to Ukraine, & similar to Finland, & maybe a couple to the Baltic Republics, & anything else in the Army warehouses that Ukraine asked for, then that's within his authority.

It wouldn't hurt to let it leak to the Orcs that Ukraine was now a nuclear power too thanks to Putin & the Traitor !

MAD kept the peace for 50 years, & if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes !!!

Pretty stupid idea. Zelensky is somewhat competent and trustworthy, but the next Ukrainian off the lot could a fucking psycho who’ll fire the nukes at Russia or sell them to Iran.

Nukes are almost completely useless as offensive weapons; the two super powers spent billions of dollars in analysis to eventually conclude just that simple reality !

They do however have a value as reactive weapon; where if you're stupid enough to attack a nuclear powered state with sufficient forces that they face annihilation, where they've nothing left to lose, then sure, they'll use their nukes against your population centers, because you've backed them up against the wall.

If the Orcs actually made a break thru & would they risk 3-4 nukes on St Petersburg, & Moscow, & a couple on Crimea, or Rostov-On-Don for that prize ?

Similarly; is it worth pushing into Finland, or Latvia for one of them turning Murmansk, or Arkhangelsk into a glowing slagheap ?

They'd be trading a Queen for a Pawn.