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Indeed. Said before comp started that loss of Muntz was a killer blow for Fiji. Even with a bent Carley, they win that game against Wales with Muntz at 10. Mind you, not selecting Botia was a huge error IMHO._Os_ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 10:52 amUse that tip at your own risk! Finding it incredibly difficult to call.
Stats for Wales v Fiji:
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matc ... fiji#stats
There's not many areas where Wales had an advantage, possession/territory/set piece/discipline, all those stats were equal or favoured Fiji. Wales clearly won the kicking metres stats, but Wales kicked 24 and Fiji 17, Wales just kicked more to get out of their 22. The only stat which really favoured Wales and is where they won it was defence (because they had less possession but also because they were better), 253 tackles and 34 missed (82%) compared to Fiji on 70 tackles and 23 missed (64%).
Stats for Wallabies v Georgia:
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matc ... rgia#stats
As lopsided in favour of the Wallabies as they were for Fiji. But the Wallabies made it count on the scoreboard, but then you could take the opposite view that Georgia got 15 points (still the third highest losing score, behind Tonga on 16 and Fiji on 26) doesn't reflect well on the Wallabies. The critical thing in those stats is maybe: Wallabies won 8/9 of their scrums and Georgia 6/6, Wallabies 15/18 of their lineouts and Georgia 11/14, Wallabies made 72 tackles/missed 22 (65%) and Georgia made 159/missed 20 (80%).
Both have squads that are about as experienced (Jones decided not to use the main advantage of the 6N/RC sides, more experienced players). So it comes down to intangibles about how well the weaknesses of one map to the strengths of the other, that are only known to a certainty after the match. Wallabies really struggled in the RC because every side offered resistance in the pack, if they were beaten in the pack it was a total implosion. This Fiji side I'm only judging on the England and Wales matches, hypothetically if Fiji had played this season's 6N they would be midtable, cannot do that without a pack. It then comes down to two unimpressive defences/which attack is better.
Muntz is a big loss for Fiji, probably would've beaten Wales with him.
Pre-RWC thought this one would be a bonus point win for Fiji with the Wallabies getting a four try bonus and a losing margin bonus. Fucked if I know now. Could argue that Fiji had much more in their favour against the Welsh than they will against the Aussies, therefore they lose again, but that's putting a lot of faith in a Wallabies team that doesn't look capable of much.
I like to lock in so I can see others’ picks, which I immediately regretted when I realized I only had Namibia losing by 35 to the ABs_Os_ wrote: ↑Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:31 pmDoes 54 points count?Fonz wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:26 pm Couldn’t help but laugh on the PR Superbru seeing people taking France by, 60, 70, etc. Uruguay are a very decent side (arguably the strongest team outside the Tier 1+PIs that isn’t Georgia, excepting perhaps Portugal), playing their opening match against the French second string. It was always going to be close.
It was a strong pick by you, looking at some of the other matches you used similar logic and weren't as close. I watched the Uruguay/Nam/Chile warmups. There wasn't some vast huge difference between the three, but Uruguay the best and about a score or two ahead of Nam, who were in turn better than Chile. How that translates into matches against T1 countries is quite difficult to work out, some have game plans better suited to facing those teams maybe.
….got a soft spot for those guys though, still pissed WR couldn’t be bothered to reschedule their match against Canada in 2019 that got postponed on account of the typhoon, which would very likely have been their first ever RWC victory. Doubtful they’ll ever get another chance as good as that.Yeah maybe that wasn’t fair on my part to put it in those terms. Nonetheless, they are terrible right now. Say what you will about Andy Robinson, but he had them in infinitely better form (when they qualified) than they’re showing at present.EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:21 pm Pride has kept them from being absolutely destroyed hee as they are quite poor. Really basic stuff like maul dedence is pretty much non existent or certainly not at this level
Spain would have absolutely fared better. Canada’s hardly in rude health but Spain put 40 on them in the first half in Edmonton last year. They’re pretty good by Tier 2 standards. And while their results took a sight dip this year, that’s because they’re reorienting to make a run for 2027 and blooding lots of new players.tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:49 pm Romania only qualified by default after all, it's hard to know if Spain would have fared any better but lower ranked Portugal certainly showed a much better attitude albeit against a pretty inept Wales second string.
Shit England say hi_Os_ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 6:37 pm The final match of the round England v Japan.
This one is actually a bit more difficult to call than people are giving credit. Went England with room to spare. But if shit England turn up and not the England which played the Pumas, and if maximum attacking try scoring Japan turns up ...
1/2 way there. Japan not wanting to ruin the spirit of the game by joining in the sh*t rugby._Os_ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 6:37 pm The final match of the round England v Japan.
This one is actually a bit more difficult to call than people are giving credit. Went England with room to spare. But if shit England turn up and not the England which played the Pumas, and if maximum attacking try scoring Japan turns up ...
Unusual for anyone to back Namibia, thought I was the only one. It's more normal to blame them for holding back all of African rugby (not really buying about 20 clubs in a desert is capable of that). Their away jersey is decent this RWC, replicas also now have the fish eagle emblem (they used to refuse to sell replicas with the player issue emblem, they said it had to be earned which didn't seem commercially wise), not cheap though.Fonz wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:18 pm I like to lock in so I can see others’ picks, which I immediately regretted when I realized I only had Namibia losing by 35 to the ABs
I think Chile has been more competitive than the score lines have suggested, but alas. (I’ll also confess to a bit of bias with regard to the Hispanic teams, on account of my own background…funnily enough I would actually be qualified to play for Chile as my grandpa was born there, though he was for all intents and purposes Colombian).
I also expected Romania to have a little more pride, but that too was a tad over optimistic.
Checking it now, you're definitely still in it.Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 6:57 pm
TBF, I was spot on with the officiating. However, I missed that Kuruvoli had replaced Lomani precisely for the kicking.
Anyway, that ends my chances this RWC.
I'm aware there's Super Bru comps. I was thinking of fantasy.rugbyworldcup.com
I suspect that's one advantage I've always had: I pick dispassionately and when it comes to Fre teams, that has helped plenty when it's come to intls and HEC/Shield comps. The only time I don't follow that is on tactical picks i.e. I will sometimes "chicken out" if a pick would go against the masses if being the loner would put me out of contention early on._Os_ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:16 amChecking it now, you're definitely still in it.Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 6:57 pm
TBF, I was spot on with the officiating. However, I missed that Kuruvoli had replaced Lomani precisely for the kicking.
Anyway, that ends my chances this RWC.
Only myself, you, and GoBlack have 4 Margin Points, all three of us old PR posters (which is nice). Looks like you're in the top three on TDM. So you're picking well imo, just luck on the England v Pumas match and Fiji v Wallabies match that prevented the GS points for you. But luck can change, there's a lot of banana skin games in the remaining pool rounds, minnow battles that many will slip up on (Uruguay or Namibia? Georgia or Portugal? Wallabies or Portugal? Japan or Samoa?), as well as the big battles (Boks or Ireland? Ireland or Scotland?). Next round has 4 banana skins. I'm just picking Boks until they win the thing or crash out, will never not back this side can see a lot of South Africans doing the same, there's a chance there if you think they're going to lose.
Actually it's a mess TF1 are a joke shop in France as a Broadcaster yet RWC are geoblocking content which means you don't get highlights on the web (if you're dim / computer illiterate)...derriz wrote: ↑Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:59 pm The Rugby World Cup youtube highlights are a f*cking joke and they must have blocked all the broadcasters from showing extended highlights on their channels. 3 mins no matter what happens in the match - often they don't even show all the tries. They're almost worse than nothing - you can't help clicking but end up with no feel for the game or its dynamic. Why not have 12-15 minute highlights like all the other rugby comps do?
Funny that I'm already seeing a bunch of people on twitter parroting O'Gara from this when he said you can't (or don't?) go around the rush defence. Pretty sure I've seen people fire nice arching passes over defenders who've got deeper than the passer to a winger flat / racing into the space on the wing left by the winger/fb holding back for a kick.Guy Smiley wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:49 pm
Posted this in the Bok v Ire thread but it's well worth wider viewing, a great chat between Jim Williams and ROG about the game. There's a bit right at the end where ROG talks about Fiji that gives a nice insight into the way he sees the world and takes things a little beyond just the game.
Point of order, Jim HamiltonGuy Smiley wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:49 pm
Posted this in the Bok v Ire thread but it's well worth wider viewing, a great chat between Jim Williams and ROG about the game. There's a bit right at the end where ROG talks about Fiji that gives a nice insight into the way he sees the world and takes things a little beyond just the game.
Could be combined Jim Hamilton and Ali Williams? Or remembering this fella...
Great video. Was t sure at all about ROG at the beginning but really warmed to him and some great insight. Doesn’t pull his punchesGuy Smiley wrote: ↑Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:49 pm
Posted this in the Bok v Ire thread but it's well worth wider viewing, a great chat between Jim Williams and ROG about the game. There's a bit right at the end where ROG talks about Fiji that gives a nice insight into the way he sees the world and takes things a little beyond just the game.
That's shit news. The word's best player out of the World Cup so early... where have we heard this before?
I was thinking it's probably harder for lower tier players, given the top sides are all absolutely fucking massive and the gain line is so crucial, so players have no choice but to throw everything into it or face annihilation. But there's really no excuse for guys like Deysel - he's a hugely experienced Currie Cup and ProD2 player.
Agreed, although trying to tackle the French Eel is a nightmare even for the best Tier 1 players.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:34 amI was thinking it's probably harder for lower tier players, given the top sides are all absolutely fucking massive and the gain line is so crucial, so players have no choice but to throw everything into it or face annihilation. But there's really no excuse for guys like Deysel - he's a hugely experienced Currie Cup and ProD2 player.
