What's going on in Ukraine?

[lemonhead]

And White House sources saying he should flee to France if he knows what's good for him

Mafia tactics for a world superpower. How the fudge did we get to this.

[Sandstorm]

And White House sources saying he should flee to France if he knows what's good for him

Mafia tactics for a world superpower. How the fudge did we get to this.

Easy. Democrats with fuck-all plan or testicular fortitude.

[Brazil]

For all the talk of Europe not having interests in the Pacific, France has considerable territory there, and we've got an alliance with the Aussies. It's also not in Europe's interest to have a Beijing facing world order, though that could change if the yanks really fuck up.

[lemonhead]

And White House sources saying he should flee to France if he knows what's good for him

Mafia tactics for a world superpower. How the fudge did we get to this.

Easy. Democrats with fuck-all plan or testicular fortitude.

What is it they can do right now?

Genuinely curious as they don't have the numbers in either house. Should they be making more noise in the media, filibustering like fudge, issuing lawsuits etc

[Sandstorm]

And White House sources saying he should flee to France if he knows what's good for him

Mafia tactics for a world superpower. How the fudge did we get to this.

Easy. Democrats with fuck-all plan or testicular fortitude.

What is it they can do right now?

Genuinely curious as they don't have the numbers in either house. Should they be making more noise in the media, filibustering like fudge, issuing lawsuits etc

Yes. All of that. Shouting at Trump in the media, calling the MAGAs Nazi thieves, whatever. They’re literally invisible.

[robmatic]

What is it they can do right now?

Genuinely curious as they don't have the numbers in either house. Should they be making more noise in the media, filibustering like fudge, issuing lawsuits etc

Well, maybe they wouldn't be in that position if they hadn't made an arse of the election. "Democracy is at stake" so we'll go into the election with some old fucker who can barely walk and then foist his non-charismatic deputy on the electorate at the last minute instead.

[lemonhead]

What is it they can do right now?

Genuinely curious as they don't have the numbers in either house. Should they be making more noise in the media, filibustering like fudge, issuing lawsuits etc

Well, maybe they wouldn't be in that position if they hadn't made an arse of the election. "Democracy is at stake" so we'll go into the election with some old fucker who can barely walk and then foist his non-charismatic deputy on the electorate at the last minute instead.

Ah, no argument on that score. But I'd say that's done and dusted, the main thing is from here. Take in some quarters is they're deliberately letting the GOP implode all on its own

https://archive.ph/sRmIm

Which I don't buy. Even if tactical, it probably only works in the political world of old. Think we're in a new one now, with very different rules.

[Hellraiser]

CDU/CSU clear winners in the German federal elections. AFD failed to break 20%. Looks like another grand coalition with the SPD and Greens.

[_Os_]

For all the talk of Europe not having interests in the Pacific, France has considerable territory there, and we've got an alliance with the Aussies. It's also not in Europe's interest to have a Beijing facing world order, though that could change if the yanks really fuck up.

If Aussies and Kiwis are relying on America they're in bigger trouble than just having China to worry about. The US has a habit of pumping and dumping countries, a habit of losing too.

Trump has been rambling about "Russia and China are together, they can never be together, I cannot allow that!". Some advisor managed to get some undergrad PolSci knowledge into him. Without getting bogged down in theory, it's revealing that they just take Europe's support for granted. In the Cold War Europe wanted to defeat the Soviet Union but what is the incentive this time, Russia aren't the Soviets and in any case Europe is being told to defeat Russia on its own now with added US obstruction.

China won the start of the war, Russia immediately became a vassal of Beijing. China has no interest in a strong Russia, it'll use it for cheap resources and nothing more. If China win the end of the war they get what the really wanted, European ambivalence/toleration. People forget belt and road was about controlling the trade route to Europe, they anticipated a world without American power. Europe and China controlling their own spheres with mutual acceptance between them would be tough to beat, eliminates Russia which becomes geographically isolated and dependant on Europe/China. US then has to win alone from the periphery which isn't possible.

[Hugo]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

[Hugo]

Important thing to always remember US does not have enduring alliances. Washington uses countries when they are useful to them then abandons them when they no longer serve a purpose.

[Hellraiser]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

That's paranoid nonsense.

[Hugo]

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/202 ... er?lang=en

This is an excellent article imo. There are a series of good points in there and it's hard to single any one out.

The one I would say I agree with is the false perception of American isolationism which is a cliche you still see trotted out by people.

The US never isolates it just goes through phases of greater or lesser engagement in regions depending upon what serves it's interests. In other words it doesn't isolate as much as put things on the back burner.

[Hugo]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

That's paranoid nonsense.

Fair enough. Things have really broken the US way on this. You have European social Democrats types more hawkish than a Republican President and pledging to increase military spending as a matter of priority which was something Trump was banging on about years before the Ukraine war.

[_Os_]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

That's paranoid nonsense.

Hugo's post has some of the smell of "NATO/US started the war to divided Europe/Germany from Russia" for sure, a staple of Russian propaganda earlier in the war. It was Russia that started the war as part of some mad imperial project, something which very quickly proved a total disaster for them.

But what is US strategy now? Fucked if I know. Some mad plan to steal Ukraine's resources and make Europe pay, a bizarre mirror of Russia's attempt. A stupid plan to have regardless of how the war turns out. Forcing Europe to be dependant on the US for security, was a very good deal, for the US. It meant the US got to wear European power like a skin suit. Telling Europe it's on its own could work out about as well for the US as building a few factories in China to make cheap junk. They could be unleashing Balrog, again.

[Hugo]

I dont see a downside to US strategy wrt to Europe right now. Europe will never be united enough to pose a threat to the US as a bloc or rival and as long as it maintains its bases on the continent it will be still be in vassal status.

It just seems like US is transferring some of the responsibility for European security to Europeans which is not an unreasonable position. Is there really that much of a risk in this approach? Maybe there is but I can't foresee what it could be.

[Hellraiser]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

That's paranoid nonsense.

Hugo's post has some of the smell of "NATO/US started the war to divided Europe/Germany from Russia" for sure, a staple of Russian propaganda earlier in the war. It was Russia that started the war as part of some mad imperial project, something which very quickly proved a total disaster for them.

But what is US strategy now? Fucked if I know. Some mad plan to steal Ukraine's resources and make Europe pay, a bizarre mirror of Russia's attempt. A stupid plan to have regardless of how the war turns out. Forcing Europe to be dependant on the US for security, was a very good deal, for the US. It meant the US got to wear European power like a skin suit. Telling Europe it's on its own could work out about as well for the US as building a few factories in China to make cheap junk. They could be unleashing Balrog, again.

Merz, an arch-Atlanticist, has declared America an unreliable ally, said an alternative independent European defence alliance to NATO may be necessary, and that the Anglo-French nuclear umbrella may be preferable to the current American one. That is an epochal shift for any German politician.

All other considerations aside, completely unshackling the German defence industry now offers a potential route out of Germany's current economic problems.

Edit: and in the last couple of hours he's stated that Musk and Washington's election interference in Germany was "no less radical and outrageous than that of Moscow".

[Hugo]

This past weeks developments have been on the table for the best part of a decade. I know people like Rory Stewart were taken completely unawares by them but I think that says more about his lack of perception than anything.

What I think will transpire will be a more committed Europe to European defence, it's hard for me to envision much more than that. This is more incremental than seismic it's just that people have been so accustomed to the status quo so any type of shift seems monumental.

[Enzedder]

Zelenski could undertake to partner with Europe for those mineral rights with a friendly royalty - just to fuck with Drumpf. Just make it conditional on getting their ground back.

[robmatic]

Interesting analysis.

There are 38 US bases in Europe - isn't the game plan here to leave the Ukrainian conflict in the hands of Europe so that Europe is all tied up with it and the US can pivot away? A best case scenario for US is a stalemate where tons of resources are poured down the drain fighting a quagmire. I sense a key part of US strategy wrt Europe is to ensure that Russia & Western Europe are not and never will be aligned.

Imo if that's the game plan they have played a blinder.

That's paranoid nonsense.

Fair enough. Things have really broken the US way on this. You have European social Democrats types more hawkish than a Republican President and pledging to increase military spending as a matter of priority which was something Trump was banging on about years before the Ukraine war.

What benefit is increased European military spending to the US if NATO is basically finished though?

[Uncle fester]

That's paranoid nonsense.

Fair enough. Things have really broken the US way on this. You have European social Democrats types more hawkish than a Republican President and pledging to increase military spending as a matter of priority which was something Trump was banging on about years before the Ukraine war.

What benefit is increased European military spending to the US if NATO is basically finished though?

That's a "be careful what you wish for" outcome.

[Sandstorm]

That's a "be careful what you wish for" outcome.

Quite. This is a moment for Europe, one they might not have the stones to seize: stop relying on USA for NATO lead, unleash your under-utilized car factories across Europe to ramp up weapons production and boost your economies. Fuck Trump.

The German elections might push this forward just when it's really needed.

[Guy Smiley]

That's a "be careful what you wish for" outcome.

Quite. This is a moment for Europe, one they might not have the stones to seize: stop relying on USA for NATO lead, unleash your under-utilized car factories across Europe to ramp up weapons production and boost your economies. Fuck Trump.

The German elections might push this forward just when it's really needed.

Bring Ukraine into whatever alliance they form to replace NATO and relegate the US to an also ran…

We’ve got this sorted. Sign ze papers.

[Thor Sedan]

Kill NATO - create something new - unleash industry for 10 odd years - create a cohesive European defense force and leave the US to themselves.

The US is a rouge nation that must be phased out.

Oh it is oh so simple.....absolutely no downside to this plan.....

[Sandstorm]

Kill NATO - create something new - unleash industry for 10 odd years - create a cohesive European defense force and leave the US to themselves.

The US is a rouge nation that must be phased out.

Oh it is oh so simple.....absolutely no downside to this plan.....

Timing is the problem. If EU announce it, it'll take 5+ years to ramp up. Trump will withdraw all support immediately. Advantage Russia.
In the meantime Putin will make a massive push West and probably won't ever be sent home again.

Fuck, I hate Trump & Co so much.

[Sandstorm]

Best option for EU is to tell Trump they agree that they haven't been pulling their weight in NATO for decades and want to do so now. Increase their defence budgets, get the weapon building ramped up and spend the next 4 years growing arms industry everywhere. Use USA shells to keep Russians at bay now, while also arming Ukraine with EU munitions at the same time.

Trump thinks " Art of the Deal", I'm so great!

Then in 2029 see who's in the White house and either stick with NATO (with a robust EU arms industry making money off it) or tell USA to poke off. Doing it now would be a disaster for Ukraine.

Play the long-game, China-stylee.

[Biffer]

Best option for EU is to tell Trump they agree that they haven't been pulling their weight in NATO for decades and want to do so now. Increase their defence budgets, get the weapon building ramped up and spend the next 4 years growing arms industry everywhere. Use USA shells to keep Russians at bay now, while also arming Ukraine with EU munitions at the same time.

Trump thinks " Art of the Deal", I'm so great!

Then in 2029 see who's in the White house and either stick with NATO (with a robust EU arms industry making money off it) or tell USA to poke off. Doing it now would be a disaster for Ukraine.

Play the long-game, China-stylee.

Regardless of who's in the Whitehouse, they can no longer be viewed as a reliable partner.

The post war settlement was for the US to take the lead, in order to decrease military spending in Europe and avoid another massive war that America and the rest of the world would get drawn in to. That settlement appears to be dead.

So Europe re-arms - but hopefully most of it together in a concerted way to provide European defence. That increase in spending has the potential to reinvigorate European tech industries, so could be good for Europe in that particular way, but the massive downside is that it decreases global stability.

From a US point of view they'd no longer be able to rely on Europe for support in global politics. Europe may well focus solely on European security, probably with a large eye peering towards Africa. Any machinations in East Asia would be a lesser concern.

[Flockwitt]

I rather think pretty much everybody, and especially the current US administration, is doing their best to stick their head in the sand regards just how small out planet has become, and how interdependent everybody is. People can try to turn the clock back as much as they want and try and live in their little islands. It isn't going to work.

[tabascoboy]

According to Russian media, the EU has disconnected 13 Russian banks from SWIFT in the latest sanctions package and banned 8 Russian media outlets from broadcasting in Europe. New restrictions have also been imposed on supplying Russia with software, equipment, and technology for oil & gas extraction.

Also 73 ships will be subject to sanctions

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As we've been reporting, a senior Ukrainian official says the country is close to finalising a minerals deal with the US.

Donald Trump says the US is seeking access to Ukraine's minerals in return for previous aid - with Ukraine insisting on security guarantees going forward.

Last week Zelensky rejected a US demand for $500 billion in mineral wealth, saying nowhere near that much aid had been provided, adding: "I can't sell our state."

A deal now seems to be close - but it's not known which minerals it would cover, how much the US would try to recoup from previous aid, and what any future "security guarantee" could look like.

Ukraine holds huge deposits of critical elements and minerals, including lithium and titanium, as well as sizeable coal, gas, oil and uranium deposits - supplies worth billions of dollars.

Last year, Zelensky presented his "victory plan" to Ukraine and its western partners, which proposed that foreign firms could gain access to some of the countries' mineral wealth at the end of the war.

It said "strategic partners" could receive a "special agreement for the joint protection of the country's critical resources, as well as joint investment and use of this economic potential".

It was one of five points he put forward - which included an invitation for Ukraine to join Nato.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gm41lq6rlt

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Hugo]

That's paranoid nonsense.

Fair enough. Things have really broken the US way on this. You have European social Democrats types more hawkish than a Republican President and pledging to increase military spending as a matter of priority which was something Trump was banging on about years before the Ukraine war.

What benefit is increased European military spending to the US if NATO is basically finished though?

My guess is a middle ground is found between dissolving NATO & the current status quo. European countries being more active partners in NATO rather than passive recipients of US military support.

Tbh it seems a moderate proposition it's just what it took to get here - 10 years, a Trump presidency and a war on European soil - is what makes it seem crazy. If it was done on Obama's watch I don't think it would have been received this way.

[Slick]

How many times have we had new "maximum sanctions" on Russia now? I thought we had them sanctioned to the hilt years ago, but no, still lots of stuff that seems to have been discovered that we can do. It's pathetic.

[Sandstorm]

How many times have we had new "maximum sanctions" on Russia now? I thought we had them sanctioned to the hilt years ago, but no, still lots of stuff that seems to have been discovered that we can do. It's pathetic.

Agreed.

[tabascoboy]

The United States has officially opposed the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine.

"We cannot support Ukraine's resolution, and we urge it to be withdrawn in favour of a strong statement that commits us to ending the war and working towards a lasting peace," — said US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Shea.

[PornDog]

That's quite the list of "Shithole countries" the US is keeping company with

[tabascoboy]

That's quite the list of "Shithole countries" the US is keeping company with

Siding with North Korea has to be a new low ( for now - I'm sure they'll surpass it soon )

Even China simply abstained

[Flockwitt]

How many times have we had new "maximum sanctions" on Russia now? I thought we had them sanctioned to the hilt years ago, but no, still lots of stuff that seems to have been discovered that we can do. It's pathetic.

Agreed.

Double agreed. The whole turn a blind eye to the shadow oil tanker fleet stank for starters.

[Flockwitt]

That's quite the list of "Shithole countries" the US is keeping company with

Siding with North Korea has to be a new low ( for now - I'm sure they'll surpass it soon )

Even China simply abstained

Even when China has publicly supported a peace deal also. So much for the US being the leader of the 'free' world.

[Flockwitt]

BBC reporting a mineral deal close to being finalised. Which is not necessarily bad in itself if not the extortion the US was attempting previously.

[Uncle fester]

BBC reporting a mineral deal close to being finalised. Which is not necessarily bad in itself if not the extortion the US was attempting previously.

1. Sign the deal
2. Win the war
3. Play for time
4. Once Trump is gone, renege on the deal

Art of the deal hmmm?

[Raggs]

If the deal posted on blue sky is genuine, it's not worth signing.

No mention of security assurances. Just, you give us 50% after operating costs of minerals etc, until you've paid us $500b and then give us back double any more we give you. Anything that comes out of land currently occupied by Russia, we want 66% share...