NPR

Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.

UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.

20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.

Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective

A coronavirus vaccine developed by China's Sinovac has been found to be 50.4% effective in Brazilian clinical trials, according to the latest results released by researchers.

It shows the vaccine is significantly less effective than previous data suggested - barely over the 50% needed for regulatory approval.

The Chinese vaccine is one of two that the Brazilian government has lined up.

Brazil has been one of the countries worst affected by Covid-19.

Sinovac, a Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company, is behind CoronaVac, an inactivated vaccine. It works by using killed viral particles to expose the body's immune system to the virus without risking a serious disease response.

Several countries, including Indonesia, Turkey and Singapore, have placed orders for the vaccine.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55642648

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:28 pm

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:32 pm

Most of the nurses have been fine. Only a couple needed a day off.

I heard on Facebook that lots of nurses died. Forcing them to get this vaccine is obscene and anti-freedom.

Not forced! A nurse just told me she refused saying it was too new.

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:08 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.

UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.

20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.

Jeez, I hope we're at the peak of Second wave here. Our hospitals are nearing collapse.

Enzedder wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:38 am Shit -the death toll today (with some weekend catchup I guess) from the USA was 4,259 according to WorldOMeters.

UK at 1243 would also have some catch-up there I suppose but that is grim stuff there guys. Stay well.

20 days since Christmas so I think it will get worse before it gets better.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:19 am

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:28 pm

I heard on Facebook that lots of nurses died. Forcing them to get this vaccine is obscene and anti-freedom.

Not forced! A nurse just told me she refused saying it was too new.

Same old stuff as per flu vaccine. Inevitably some folk will have contracted flu/covid19 before vaccine but be symptom free when being vaccinated, others will contract it immediately after getting vaccine and before it becomes fully active. However they then blame the vaccine for giving them flu/covid19. Given umbers involved we sill see lots of examples of this.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:29 am

This should have being the case a year ago but hey ho.

Other areas of the UK also need to follow suite rapidly.

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:28 pm

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:32 pm

Most of the nurses have been fine. Only a couple needed a day off.

I heard on Facebook that lots of nurses died. Forcing them to get this vaccine is obscene and anti-freedom.

Not forced! A nurse just told me she refused saying it was too new.

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:41 am

Fangle wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:28 pm

I heard on Facebook that lots of nurses died. Forcing them to get this vaccine is obscene and anti-freedom.

Not forced! A nurse just told me she refused saying it was too new.

Quite a few of my colleagues have refused. Its quite embarrassing.

Openside wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:47 am It’s quite a thorny one as presumably they are putting people they attend at greater risk??

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 am

Openside wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:47 am It’s quite a thorny one as presumably they are putting people they attend at greater risk??

Not so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.

What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 am

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 am

Openside wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:47 am It’s quite a thorny one as presumably they are putting people they attend at greater risk??

Not so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.

What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.

I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:01 am Indeed. People I talk to are saying "We just need the vaccine, then I can get back to a normal life again"

No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:01 am Indeed. People I talk to are saying "We just need the vaccine, then I can get back to a normal life again"

No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!

Vaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.

I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:01 am Indeed. People I talk to are saying "We just need the vaccine, then I can get back to a normal life again"

No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!

Vaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.

I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 am

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:54 am

Not so much. You'll still be a carrier even after receiving both doses.

What I'd like to happen is those that refuse it forfeit any payouts and special leave (we're getting special not sick leave if off due to covid) if they catch it now though. If I'm at an RTC, not wearing relevant ppe and suffer a head injury as a result I'd get fuck all. Should be the same here.

I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:40 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:12 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:01 am Indeed. People I talk to are saying "We just need the vaccine, then I can get back to a normal life again"

No, EVERYONE over 18 needs the vaccine before it's back to normal! You being jabbed doesn't mean it's open season the next day!

Vaccination of the most vulnerable cuts the death rate by 90% which is supposed to be complete by Mid Feb. After that if all frontline NHS /care staff are vaccinated then at what point do we decide a number of new infections and deaths per day is not a reason the close the economy down? At the risk of sounding harsh we make the same calculation with flu.

I suspect a form of normality will return by April but rules about maximum group sizes and masks may well remain for longer.

Its a difficult one and we still don't have a real exit strategy from any of the Govs beyond lets vaccinate everyone but that doesn't really make an exit strategy.

Vaccination is obviously key and and we need to vaccinate 66.5 million folk involving 2 injections = 133m injections or about 100m if we exclude u16s. c15m are under 16 and we don't have a vaccine for them yet and/or if the plan is to vaccinate them, I presume it is? We don't know for sure if those vaccinated can still transmit the virus and we dont know how long immunity lasts for. We also don't know if new variants will emerge and if vaccines will still be effective. We also don't know how many folk will accept the vaccine and of those that do will it be sufficient in order to develop herd immunity. Looks like vaccination programme might take some months to do the numbers to develop herd immunity and we might need a programme of vaccination/boosters, as per the flu, next year as well?

For me I think we need to think carefully about how and when we open up society and the economy and in what stages. Obviously if we have vaccinated older and vulnerable folk then we can hopefully reduce deaths but we still need to remember c10% of those infected have longer term health issues and we don't want to create a longer term health problem of folk with heart, lung, vascular, stroke, post viral syndromes, issues etc. Until we have vaccinated enough folk for herd immunity we will still have a significant number of our pop at risk. What are the priorities beyond schools and what are the incremental steps? Is it going back down the tiers/levels in reverse? Will it be a regional process or a national one? What are the key indicators that will be used to make these decisions?

Track, test and trace will remain a vital weapon and will remain critical in managing transmission for next 6 months and beyond. It seems to have dropped off the radar but needs major improvement and refocusing to make sure it is fit for purpose to support the vaccine roll out. Without it we will struggle to manage any recovery and potentially continue to have reactive major lock downs for months.

The health service has taken a huge hit, particularly the workforce. The backlog of waiting times is huge and undiagnosed health problems will surface. What are the plans and priorities for the NHS beyond this current wave and once the hospitalisation rates begin to drop. How do we support the workforce recover and how do we ramp up elective work to address the backlog. Asking the same system to do the same things in the same way will mean it will take 5 years to get back to where we were, and that assumes we retain our existing workforce.

Borders remain a concern. Whilst it is fantastic that we are leading in vaccination rollout other countries will be months, if not years, behind. The US for example on current trajectory will take 5+ years to vaccinate its population. We need a strategy to control the borders and to avoid importing variants of the virus that might not be protected by our vaccines. We see some border controls being put in place but from what I read we are not very good in making sure these are robust and adhered to. Whilst we might have a vaccination programme in place are we really going to have travel opened up this year? It might be a very limited and phased process this year?

Hopefully we will see some return to something like normal, if that means having a pint in a beer garden, by spring/early summer but it could be the rest of the year before full normality and overseas travel becomes the norm. I've booked a golf trip to France in September, not sure I would be confident of much earlier.

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:58 pm Great post dpedin, hadn't thought about most of those things.

Bit depressing to be honest.

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 am

I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:10 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

Is this because they are furthest ahead with vaccination programme and have been able to collect the data?

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:13 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:10 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

Is this because they are furthest ahead with vaccination programme and have been able to collect the data?

Yep

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-majo ... 1001357016

I’d expect to see a lot of studies of this type being done in the next few months, giving better indications of overall effectiveness, the percentage of infection / serious illness / hospitalisation prevented, and a lot of the other questions people have asked as well.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:09 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:58 pm Great post dpedin, hadn't thought about most of those things.

Bit depressing to be honest.

Its my take on things and I expect others more knowledgeable to correct some of my thoughts and assumptions. However we will get there and there are lots of unexpected bonuses, such as I expect holidays in UK to boom this year and help local economies particularly rural and coastal ones. I also expect lots of business travel and commuting to continue at lower levels as folk have learnt we can work from home more easily and the environment might benefit? Although some city/business centres might continue to struggle the economies in local suburban areas will benefit as folk stay more local, work flexibly and use local traders, leisure facilities, etc. Golf clubs have seen a boom in memberships!

However the worst thing that can happen is the plan is to go back the way we were, this is a real opportunity to make some positive changes and I hope this isn't missed.

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 am

I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:16 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.

Seriously, I hope you're right. This virus has already mutated to a more infectious version in less than 12 months. Next Xmas it may move again into a much more deadly beast that targets kids or something. All bets are off on Covid19 IMO.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:22 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:16 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.

Seriously, I hope you're right. This virus has already mutated to a more infectious version in less than 12 months. Next Xmas it may move again into a much more deadly beast that targets kids or something. All bets are off on Covid19 IMO.

I suppose thats the difference between an aspiration and a strategy? Cross your fingers and hope history repeats itself and that the collateral damage isn't to bad or actively plan for the desired outcome. I suggest we probably need to do both to minimise the risk?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:16 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.

Seriously, I hope you're right. This virus has already mutated to a more infectious version in less than 12 months. Next Xmas it may move again into a much more deadly beast that targets kids or something. All bets are off on Covid19 IMO.

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:18 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

Thats good. Got a link for that?

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:55 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:16 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Pandemics run their course, so the exit strategy is vax to prevent deaths and serious illness, and then in three or four years it’ll have settled down anyway.

Seriously, I hope you're right. This virus has already mutated to a more infectious version in less than 12 months. Next Xmas it may move again into a much more deadly beast that targets kids or something. All bets are off on Covid19 IMO.

Viruses which cause worse disease tend not to become dominant, purely through evolutionary pressure. If you think about it, a virus that makes you more seriously ill means you come in contact with fewer people, so will transmit less. One which makes you more only mildly ill will spread more because you are likely to come into contact with more people. So milder disease strains become more dominant.

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:05 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:59 am

I thought the jury was still out on whether you could still be infectious after you have had a vaccine, given the required amount of time after vaccination for it to become effective?

Last I read, admittedly a few weeks, they were thinking you'd still infect others but were unsure on how much by.

New research from Israel suggests the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine lowers infection rates by 50% initially. Which is tremendous news if it’s confirmed by further widespread studies as vax numbers increase.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:37 pm

Including other UK nations that should be north of 200k hopefully.

Needs to be around 300k per day to be on target so still improvement needed - but overall pretty good.

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:48 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:37 pm

Including other UK nations that should be north of 200k hopefully.

Needs to be around 300k per day to be on target so still improvement needed - but overall pretty good.

World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-c ... gion=World is yet to be updated for yesterday's figures but had the UK at 2.68 million doses delivered as of 11th January.

Scotland, Wales, NI have been averaging at only 25K per day and need to seriously accelerate (Scotland and Wales anyway) but we should be at around 2.9 million or so delivered in total by now - so nearly 3% of the job completed

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:36 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:48 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:37 pm

Including other UK nations that should be north of 200k hopefully.

Needs to be around 300k per day to be on target so still improvement needed - but overall pretty good.

World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-c ... gion=World is yet to be updated for yesterday's figures but had the UK at 2.68 million doses delivered as of 11th January.

Scotland, Wales, NI have been averaging at only 25K per day and need to seriously accelerate (Scotland and Wales anyway) but we should be at around 2.9 million or so delivered in total by now - so nearly 3% of the job completed

Scotland hadn’t been anywhere near 25k a day until yesterday, 26k reported vaccinated on Tuesday. Health secretary stated an aim of 400k per week by the end of Feb, which is fucking ambitious as that’d cover the entire population in 13 weeks! If the UK target is 2 million / week, Scottish equivalent would be about 170k per week. Which is 25k per day if you’re going seven days a week.