NPR

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:37 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:20 pm My 46 year old brother had his second AZ jab on Friday. All day and night of Saturday he felt really achy with a migraine. Feels 100% again today.

What sort of political push does he have to have had 2 jabs when aged just 46?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:12 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:37 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:20 pm My 46 year old brother had his second AZ jab on Friday. All day and night of Saturday he felt really achy with a migraine. Feels 100% again today.

What sort of political push does he have to have had 2 jabs when aged just 46?

He’s on Maui. Teacher. Frontline worker. There’s only 130k on the island and the Hawaiian governor is on the ball.

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:28 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:12 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:37 am

What sort of political push does he have to have had 2 jabs when aged just 46?

He’s on Maui. Teacher. Frontline worker. There’s only 130k on the island and the Hawaiian governor is on the ball.

AZ isn't approved in the US though?

Sards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:51 am Be safe people....take this very seriously....

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:52 am

Sards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:51 am Be safe people....take this very seriously....

Have a party at your house.

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:57 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:48 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:42 pm

Thanks for clarifying how vaccines are being distributed.

It really wasn't a political point but trying to be rational about trying to minimise the death rate across the UK, a bit like the argument about concentrating vaccine distribution across the EU. The current English death per million is running at 1,508 against a Scottish rate of 1,118 per million - 25% higher. I said in my post we should concentrate on London and the SE where the rate is highest and recognise that there are regional differences. In Scotland the death rate in Glasgow and Lanarkshire is the highest in Scotland. Number of deaths mirrors the number of cases, testing rate is as much a function of demand than anything else. I genuinely believe that we should be sending vaccines to those areas which have the highest death rates and where the NHS is under most pressure and this is clearly in parts of England. Where I am in Embra we are running at less than a 100 cases per 100,000 and deaths rates are relatively low as well, most deaths have been in care homes and these residents have now been vaccinated, so it would seem sensible to concentrate vaccination supplies and effort in those areas more at risk?

Really interesting that folk immediately jump on the Scotland v England issue when I thought I was making an entirely sensible suggestion - why not concentrate vaccination efforts in those areas of the UK, or Scotland, at highest risk and where the NHS is under most pressure? Lets look at the data rather than getting the hump?

I agree that there may be a sensible scientific rationale to do something other that per capita distribution. But I also think that there is zero chance that Nicola would permit that if it meant fewer shots per capital in Scotland.

Realpolitik is a real thing

If not across the 4 UK countries then this could be done within each of them? Given all the politicians say the listen to the science (whatever the feck that means) then it would be interesting to hear what the epidemiologists would say about this? Not any more controversial than delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks? Is it not about getting the max pop benefit for the vaccine available?

he current English death per million is running at 1,508 against a Scottish rate of 1,118 per million

Sards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:53 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:52 am

Sards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:51 am Be safe people....take this very seriously....

Have a party at your house.

every weekend....I just cannot give up my social life dudette

You know that was targetted at you darling.

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:16 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:57 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:48 pm

I agree that there may be a sensible scientific rationale to do something other that per capita distribution. But I also think that there is zero chance that Nicola would permit that if it meant fewer shots per capital in Scotland.

Realpolitik is a real thing

If not across the 4 UK countries then this could be done within each of them? Given all the politicians say the listen to the science (whatever the feck that means) then it would be interesting to hear what the epidemiologists would say about this? Not any more controversial than delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks? Is it not about getting the max pop benefit for the vaccine available?

I think if it was worthwhile doing this then it might have being considered but I suspect there's such a marginal advantage that it wouldn't be worth the political shitstorm that would come with it. Additionally I wonder if the the vaccination wouldn't be more effective if areas that have more unaffected people because the disease has more potential to spread (if you follow me).

he current English death per million is running at 1,508 against a Scottish rate of 1,118 per million

Can I ask where you got that - looking at the comparable data I make the difference between England and Scotland to be 13% (136 vs 156 per 100k). The difference between the highest and lowest regions in England is 89 vs 200(!) which to me indicates geography, population spread and other factors are the driving force.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:36 am

Sards wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:53 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:52 am

Have a party at your house.

every weekend....I just cannot give up my social life dudette

You know that was targetted at you darling.

Strange, you're the only person I hear making jokes about Covid.

dpedin wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:26 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:16 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:57 pm

If not across the 4 UK countries then this could be done within each of them? Given all the politicians say the listen to the science (whatever the feck that means) then it would be interesting to hear what the epidemiologists would say about this? Not any more controversial than delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks? Is it not about getting the max pop benefit for the vaccine available?

I think if it was worthwhile doing this then it might have being considered but I suspect there's such a marginal advantage that it wouldn't be worth the political shitstorm that would come with it. Additionally I wonder if the the vaccination wouldn't be more effective if areas that have more unaffected people because the disease has more potential to spread (if you follow me).

he current English death per million is running at 1,508 against a Scottish rate of 1,118 per million

Can I ask where you got that - looking at the comparable data I make the difference between England and Scotland to be 13% (136 vs 156 per 100k). The difference between the highest and lowest regions in England is 89 vs 200(!) which to me indicates geography, population spread and other factors are the driving force.

I use this website - someone on here recommended it - it pulls together all published data into nice easy to read graphs and charts.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

It does depend on the measure you use i.e. 28 days, death cert or excess deaths. The last 2-3 weeks has seen a significantly higher increase in deaths in England compared to Scotland, Wales and NI and has increased the difference in death rates.

They researchers concluded that the single biggest factor that determined a countries covid19 performance was Gov policy and how it was implemented

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:07 pm The SA variant found in Surrey with people who have not travelled or knowingly met people who have.

A massive door to door testing effort is going to be started in the affected areas. T&T is supposed to be working reasonably well now - I guess we will see.

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:55 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:26 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:16 am

I think if it was worthwhile doing this then it might have being considered but I suspect there's such a marginal advantage that it wouldn't be worth the political shitstorm that would come with it. Additionally I wonder if the the vaccination wouldn't be more effective if areas that have more unaffected people because the disease has more potential to spread (if you follow me).



Can I ask where you got that - looking at the comparable data I make the difference between England and Scotland to be 13% (136 vs 156 per 100k). The difference between the highest and lowest regions in England is 89 vs 200(!) which to me indicates geography, population spread and other factors are the driving force.

I use this website - someone on here recommended it - it pulls together all published data into nice easy to read graphs and charts.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

It does depend on the measure you use i.e. 28 days, death cert or excess deaths. The last 2-3 weeks has seen a significantly higher increase in deaths in England compared to Scotland, Wales and NI and has increased the difference in death rates.

He doesn't say what metric he's using but I suspect its the 'Deaths within 28 days of positive test' which comes with the following health warning on the gov.uk site: Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary. . Probably explains the confusion.

They researchers concluded that the single biggest factor that determined a countries covid19 performance was Gov policy and how it was implemented

Wonder if they looked at this in a UK context - the best (by some distance) performing English or indeed UK region is the South West which had the same policies as the worst region (the North West).

Fangle wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:15 pm My daughter, in Scotland in her forties, has had her first jab. She is on the at risk list and she was phoned given 50 minutes to get to the clinic. There were a few left in the batch.

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:39 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Its probably not economic to airlift small batches over - I can well imagine BOTs getting their consignments in full in one go.

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:56 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:39 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Its probably not economic to airlift small batches over - I can well imagine BOTs getting their consignments in full in one go.

Sounds about right. For the Caymans it's around 100,000 doses total so about 30 litres of actual vaccine. That's probably about a pallet.

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:35 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Reminds me of an event I organised years ago for the Overseas Territories at the FCO. An hour before the audience arrived the couriers delivered the investment guides. We were all cooing over what a great job the designer had done - Cayman Islands illustrated with nice beaches and palm trees, Tristan da Cunha with their prized lobsters etc - when a scream came from the Falklands group... the designer had used a fucking fighter jet to promote them.

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:16 pm Look like 320kish jabs registered today - a small number compared to yesterday but a 45% increase on this time last week apparently. The weekly average is really picking up.

Biffer wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:15 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:35 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:38 pm In the meantime we appear to have almost oversupplied overseas territories. A school friend of mine (so early 40s), no pre-existing etc. lives out in the Cayman Islands. Got his dose over the weekend after they'd cleared through all the at risk categories

Reminds me of an event I organised years ago for the Overseas Territories at the FCO. An hour before the audience arrived the couriers delivered the investment guides. We were all cooing over what a great job the designer had done - Cayman Islands illustrated with nice beaches and palm trees, Tristan da Cunha with their prized lobsters etc - when a scream came from the Falklands group... the designer had used a fucking fighter jet to promote them.

What did he want, a penguin on a barren rock?

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:40 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:24 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:16 pm Look like 320kish jabs registered today - a small number compared to yesterday but a 45% increase on this time last week apparently. The weekly average is really picking up.

Final number came in at 322K. 7 day average now up to 389K, or 2.7 million per week

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:51 pm That guy's twitter feed is full on tinfoil hat conspiracy nutter stuff. Quite remarkable. COVID is a scam cooked up by vaccine companies who are trying to kill you!!!!!

Biffer wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:12 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:51 pm That guy's twitter feed is full on tinfoil hat conspiracy nutter stuff. Quite remarkable. COVID is a scam cooked up by vaccine companies who are trying to kill you!!!!!

Bacon's a carcinogen too. Has he stopped eating that?

Lobby wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:04 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:24 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:16 pm Look like 320kish jabs registered today - a small number compared to yesterday but a 45% increase on this time last week apparently. The weekly average is really picking up.

Final number came in at 322K. 7 day average now up to 389K, or 2.7 million per week

Only 9,628 vaccinations in Scotland yesterday, however, which is apparently lowest number of first dose vaccinations in Scotland since the programme started. Should really be ramping up by now, not falling off.

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:24 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:16 pm Look like 320kish jabs registered today - a small number compared to yesterday but a 45% increase on this time last week apparently. The weekly average is really picking up.

Final number came in at 322K. 7 day average now up to 389K, or 2.7 million per week

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:53 pm

Lobby wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:04 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:24 pm

Final number came in at 322K. 7 day average now up to 389K, or 2.7 million per week

Only 9,628 vaccinations in Scotland yesterday, however, which is apparently lowest number of first dose vaccinations in Scotland since the programme started. Should really be ramping up by now, not falling off.

I'm not too concerned. It's absolutely clear to me that there's delays in reporting - that's why the Friday/Saturday numbers are so good always