What's going on in Ukraine?

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dabooldawg
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Morbidly obese general? I think you mean sassy, fierce and curvy. #bopo
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Hellraiser
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laurent
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Providing Modern air defence is next step

Surprised the French+ Italian did not try to get Mamba system in the door.

The US system looks quite good (any way a step up from the S300 the Ukrainian have )

as long as there is sufficient Ammunition.
TheFrog
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:22 pm
Wasn't the long delay - perceived as Germans being cold feet about supporting Ukraine - just a mix of getting Ukrainian soldiers trained and moving the kits without then getting hit by Russians strikes?

What is needed now are kits to destroy the Russians AA systems as well.
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Hellraiser
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PornDog
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Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:58 am
inactionman wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:14 am
Uncle fester wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:52 am Russia's defaulted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other
I'm struggling a bit with this - what benefit is there in disallowing Russia's repayment? By definition it's not funding anything, and it doesn't really change much about Russia's ability to borrow as pretty much all of that is sanctioned anyway.

It just seems to hurt bondholders for no real benefit - unless hurting bondholders is the reason for it?
Its part of a suite of actions. And if you threaten someone with sanctions and they invade a sovereign nation anyway then your red lines need to mean something. And this is about Russia not the bondholders.

What in practice this goes on to mean we don't yet know, can't yet know tbh. It's very likely raises the cost of capital to Russia in the short and medium term, and that does worry them else they wouldn't have been using what stockpiles of dollars they had to try and avoid this scenario. You'd think many lenders may now take action to seize overseas Russian assets to cover the debt, how widespread and what assets we don't know, but it's now a fairly common move when a nation doesn't stump up cash. Yes Russia could argue they'd have the cash but for other sanctions in place but it is what it is.

If one has to give one reason for all this it's essentially Russia has a choice now, to fund the invasion or to fund their own populace. Borrowing would have allowed them more room to do both. History will inform nations less able to borrow lose wars, but you could also contend many losing nations cared more about their own people than the Russians do.
Caveat - I am a complete know nothing nobody!


This is a minuscule figure of $100M - relative chump change. The Russians are blaming the sanctions on banking as preventing them from making the payment that they can and do want to make.

I assume that they could have done so if they really wanted to, but chose to run into a sanctions roadblock themselves, in order to try and get bondholders to put pressure on The West surrounding banking sanctions.

While obviously nobody is going to be buying Russian debt at the moment - in the long term, whenever all of this eventually dies down and we get back to some sort of normality, I severely doubt that this $100M non payment (for which they have a ready made excuse) will overly affect the demand and price of their issues.
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Hellraiser
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The Russians hit a shopping centre in Kremenchuk with two cruise missiles. Reports there was 1,000 people inside it.
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Rhubarb & Custard
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PornDog wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:46 pm
Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:58 am
inactionman wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:14 am

I'm struggling a bit with this - what benefit is there in disallowing Russia's repayment? By definition it's not funding anything, and it doesn't really change much about Russia's ability to borrow as pretty much all of that is sanctioned anyway.

It just seems to hurt bondholders for no real benefit - unless hurting bondholders is the reason for it?
Its part of a suite of actions. And if you threaten someone with sanctions and they invade a sovereign nation anyway then your red lines need to mean something. And this is about Russia not the bondholders.

What in practice this goes on to mean we don't yet know, can't yet know tbh. It's very likely raises the cost of capital to Russia in the short and medium term, and that does worry them else they wouldn't have been using what stockpiles of dollars they had to try and avoid this scenario. You'd think many lenders may now take action to seize overseas Russian assets to cover the debt, how widespread and what assets we don't know, but it's now a fairly common move when a nation doesn't stump up cash. Yes Russia could argue they'd have the cash but for other sanctions in place but it is what it is.

If one has to give one reason for all this it's essentially Russia has a choice now, to fund the invasion or to fund their own populace. Borrowing would have allowed them more room to do both. History will inform nations less able to borrow lose wars, but you could also contend many losing nations cared more about their own people than the Russians do.
Caveat - I am a complete know nothing nobody!


This is a minuscule figure of $100M - relative chump change. The Russians are blaming the sanctions on banking as preventing them from making the payment that they can and do want to make.

I assume that they could have done so if they really wanted to, but chose to run into a sanctions roadblock themselves, in order to try and get bondholders to put pressure on The West surrounding banking sanctions.

While obviously nobody is going to be buying Russian debt at the moment - in the long term, whenever all of this eventually dies down and we get back to some sort of normality, I severely doubt that this $100M non payment (for which they have a ready made excuse) will overly affect the demand and price of their issues.
I don't know what coupons they owe this month, quarter, year, but the amount they default on is only going to grow, it's hardly just a one time problem. That said who owns the debt? quite a lot will be internal to Russia, some will be overseas, and some portion of that overseas they very likely could pay by some method even with current sanctions in place. And then one would have to consider they could likely buy back the debt through a variety of measures, perhaps at a discount.

Certainly we don't know what the long term consequences of this will be, not what actual portion of the debt is a problem outside of Russia they cannot control that feeds into long term higher borrowing costs, but this area of sanctions doesn't need to be judged by whether in and of itself it forces Russia to the negotiating table with a position Ukraine will consider, this portion of the sanctions can reasonably stand just as part of the pressure being applied. And rather than judge these sanctions as failing we should be querying what further pressure can be applied, not much is being done in that area because nobody wants the cost of that themselves, everyone is hoping everyone else will act.

Speaking to Putin's motives in this or anything else I simply don't know, it's all barking mad with little to no interest in the lives of Russian people never mind anyone else.
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tabascoboy
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:01 pm The Russians hit a shopping centre in Kremenchuk with two cruise missiles. Reports there was 1,000 people inside it.
Doing what they do bets, being cunts :sad:

Not by any means consolation but
The Ukrainian forces attacked Russian troops on Snake Island 10 times on June 27. This is a continuation of Ukrainian forces' operation on Snake Island, says a spokeswoman of Ukraine's Operational Command South Natalia Humeniuk.

"We are investigating the situation, but it has already been confirmed that another anti-aircraft missile and cannon complex, Pantsir-C1, has been hit," the spokeswoman said.

According to her, there is a storm in the Black Sea now, but the Russian forces still keep on duty two ships carrying 16 cruise missiles.
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Hellraiser wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:26 pm
Hope they're successful in disrupting the Russian supply lines.
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laurent
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It's now official the French government has sent a significant number of VAB to Ukraine, most likely the convoy shown a few days ago.

The French army is currently phasing out these vehicles so the numbers could be high as the scorpion modernisation program is ongoing, there could be a lot more coming.
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sockwithaticket
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A nice gesture, but also I guess the Ukrainian war effort is better advertising than any they could purchase for the TB2s so donating a few more rather than taking payment is still a great move and generates a lot of goodwill for the company going forward.

Just dropping in once more to say that I appreciate all the nuggets unearthed by the main contributors and I read them all, a lack of posting is because I don't feel qualified to add to the discussion much.
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laurent
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sockwithaticket wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:02 am A nice gesture, but also I guess the Ukrainian war effort is better advertising than any they could purchase for the TB2s so donating a few more rather than taking payment is still a great move and generates a lot of goodwill for the company going forward.

Just dropping in once more to say that I appreciate all the nuggets unearthed by the main contributors and I read them all, a lack of posting is because I don't feel qualified to add to the discussion much.
Plus the Turks are letting through the stolen Grain / not sanctioning Russia.

Bayktar is very much linked to Erdogan...

so they are playing both ends
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tabascoboy
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About yesterday's destruction of a "non- functioning" shopping centre ( even though there were hundreds of people there), they still want to say it was not their fault and nothing of course about the deaths and casualties:

{Extract with Google Machine TL)
Минобороны России

On June 27, in the city of Kremenchug, Poltava region, the Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a strike with high-precision air-based weapons on hangars with weapons and ammunition received from the United States and European countries, in the area of ​​​​the Kremenchug plant of road vehicles. As a result of a high-precision strike, Western-made weapons and ammunition concentrated in the storage area for further shipment to the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass were hit. The detonation of stored ammunition for Western weapons caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping center located next to the plant.

Item also has a lot of claims of various military successes, and Russia's still pushing for full surrender:
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on when the war in Ukraine might end:

“The Ukrainians can end everything today. They just need to order Ukrainian troops to lay down their weapons and fulfil Russia’s conditions. And it’ll all be over.”

.
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The CGS at RUSI.

“I stand here as the first Chief of the General Staff since 1941 to take up this position in the shadow of a major state on state land war in Europe. As I do, I’m reminded of the words of a man in whose footsteps I tread. In relative obscurity, and recognising the impending danger the nation faced, the then Brigadier Bernard Montgomery wrote this in the pages of that magnificent publication Royal Engineers’ Journal of 1937:

We have got to develop new methods, and learn a new technique…. There is no need to continue doing a thing merely because it has been done in the Army for the last thirty or forty years – if this is the only reason for doing it, then it is high time we changed and did something else.

For us, today, that “something else” is mobilising the Army to meet the new threat we face: a clear and present danger that was realised on 24th February when Russia used force to seize territory from Ukraine, a friend of the United Kingdom. But let me be clear, the British Army is not mobilising to provoke war – it is mobilising to prevent war.”


“To mobilise the Army I intend to drive activity across four focused lines of effort:

First, and most importantly, boosting readiness. NATO needs highly ready forces that can deploy at short notice for the collective defence of alliance members. Deterring Russia means more of the Army ready more of the time, and ready for high-intensity war in Europe. So we will pick up the pace of combined arms training, and major on urban combat. We will re-build our stockpiles and review the deployability of our vehicle fleet. And having seen its limitations first-hand as the Commander of the Field Army, I think we need to ask ourselves whether Whole Fleet Management is the right model given the scale of the threat we face. The time has come to be frank about our ability to fight if called upon.



Second, we will accelerate the modernisation outlined in Future Soldier. NATO needs technologically advanced modern armies able to deploy at speed and fight together. They must be able to integrate effects across the domains, all stitched together by a sophisticated and robust command, control and communication network. We will seek to speed up the delivery of planned new equipments including long range fires, attack aviation, persistent surveillance and target acquisition, expeditionary logistic enablers, Ground Based Air Defence, protected mobility, and the technologies that will prove pivotal to our digital ambition: CIS and Electronic Warfare. Most importantly, this will start now – not at some ill-defined point in the future.



Third, we will re-think how we fight. We’ve been watching the war in Ukraine closely and we are already learning and adapting. Not least to the help of RUSI, Many of the lessons are not new – but they are now applied. We will double-down on combined arms manoeuvre, especially in the deep battle, and devise a new doctrine rooted in geography, integrated with NATO’s war plans and specific enough to drive focused, relevant investment and inspire the imagination of our people to fight and win if called upon.



And Fourth, I am prepared to look again at the structure of our Army. If we judge that revised structures will make the Army better prepared to fight in Europe, then we will follow Monty’s advice and do “something else”. Now of course adapting structures has implications for the size of the Army – and I know that there will be questions on Army numbers locked, loaded and ready to fire from the audience! Put simply, the threat has changed and as the threat changes, we will change with it. My job is to build the best Army possible, ready to integrate with fellow Services and Strategic command and ready to fight alongside our allies. Obviously our Army has to be affordable; nonetheless, it would be perverse if the CGS was advocating reducing the size of the Army as a land war rages in Europe and Putin’s territorial ambitions extend into the rest of the decade, and beyond Ukraine.”
Great rhetoric but meaningless without the cash to back it up. Still it's good to see a CGS that doesn't agree with the reduction in size whilst in post.

As a personal request I'd like to get rid of our WW1 era tents for a much more modern, modular med facility please and thank you, General.
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Calculon
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laurent wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:29 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:02 am A nice gesture, but also I guess the Ukrainian war effort is better advertising than any they could purchase for the TB2s so donating a few more rather than taking payment is still a great move and generates a lot of goodwill for the company going forward.

Just dropping in once more to say that I appreciate all the nuggets unearthed by the main contributors and I read them all, a lack of posting is because I don't feel qualified to add to the discussion much.
Plus the Turks are letting through the stolen Grain / not sanctioning Russia.

Bayktar is very much linked to Erdogan...

so they are playing both ends
The Turks have a weird relationship with the Russians. Turkey is a popular destination for Russian tourist and afaik Turkey is one of the most popular countries for young Russians to emigrate to so they can escape Putin's Russia. They also paid billions of dollars to the Russians to buy their latest s400 missiles and got kicked out of the f35 program as a result.

On the other hand they've been fighting proxy wars against the Russians in Syria and Libya for years. I was working in Turkey at the time they shot down the Russian jets and the anti Russian propaganda on their TV was pretty full on. They have centuries of grievences against the Russians and were also not happy when the russians took over Crimea, the Russians treat the Turkic Crimean tartars like shit. Pretty sure they would rather have the Russians control less of the Black Sea than they currently do. They are also on opposite sides of the Armenian Azerbaijan conflict. Anyway, I think the Turks are definitely more on the side of Ukraine in this war.
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FalseBayFC
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Calculon wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:37 pm
laurent wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:29 am
sockwithaticket wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:02 am A nice gesture, but also I guess the Ukrainian war effort is better advertising than any they could purchase for the TB2s so donating a few more rather than taking payment is still a great move and generates a lot of goodwill for the company going forward.

Just dropping in once more to say that I appreciate all the nuggets unearthed by the main contributors and I read them all, a lack of posting is because I don't feel qualified to add to the discussion much.
Plus the Turks are letting through the stolen Grain / not sanctioning Russia.

Bayktar is very much linked to Erdogan...

so they are playing both ends
The Turks have a weird relationship with the Russians. Turkey is a popular destination for Russian tourist and afaik Turkey is one of the most popular countries for young Russians to emigrate to so they can escape Putin's Russia. They also paid billions of dollars to the Russians to buy their latest s400 missiles and got kicked out of the f35 program as a result.

On the other hand they've been fighting proxy wars against the Russians in Syria and Libya for years. I was working in Turkey at the time they shot down the Russian jets and the anti Russian propaganda on their TV was pretty full on. They have centuries of grievences against the Russians and were also not happy when the russians took over Crimea, the Russians treat the Turkic Crimean tartars like shit. Pretty sure they would rather have the Russians control less of the Black Sea than they currently do. They are also on opposite sides of the Armenian Azerbaijan conflict. Anyway, I think the Turks are definitely more on the side of Ukraine in this war.
They are positively byzantine in their geopolitical relationships. Which is not surprising considering they are and have historically straddled some of the most strategically significant real estate in history. I like the dictionary definition of byzantine - byzantine (formal) (of an idea, a system, etc.) complicated, secret, and difficult to change an organization of byzantine complexity. Just as relevant in Muslim Turkey of the 21st century.
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Not sure if this thread on Russian military corruption has been posted yet. The earlier threads in this series have been posted.

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fishfoodie
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One point on the corruption in the Russian Army, I heard in a youtube video, really made sense.

While the looting at the highest levels catches the eye, it's not necessarily as bad to their war effort, as the petty corruption by conscripts earning $30 a month !

The example given was of these conscripts who's duty was to maintain all those tanks in the reserves; their job was to turn over & run the tanks engines for 15-20 minutes every month, & make a report of any deficiencies.

But the problem was that everything that was of any value, had already been stolen from the tank parks.So the commander would have sold most of the diesel, the junior officers had sold the mechanics tools, & probably had the mechanics working for private garages; the NCOs had sold any optics in the tanks, & radios etc, & that just left any copper wiring that remained for privates, who sold it for scrap.

Padding contracts for T-14 tanks might have lost Billions, but this war won't be lost because of that; it'll be lost because when the General Staff went looking for T-72 tanks for the reserves, the cupboard was bare.
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tabascoboy
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'We now have an agreement for Finland and Sweden to join NATO', says Stoltenberg
Earlier we reported that Turkey had agreed to support Finland and Sweden's joint membership to NATO.

The breakthrough came after the three countries signed a joint memorandum "to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security.

Now, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has told reporters in Madrid: "I am pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO."

The NATO chief also said the move was the "exact opposite" of what Vladimir Putin had been seeking and showed "NATO's doors are open",
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Hellraiser
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fishfoodie wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:42 pm One point on the corruption in the Russian Army, I heard in a youtube video, really made sense.

While the looting at the highest levels catches the eye, it's not necessarily as bad to their war effort, as the petty corruption by conscripts earning $30 a month !

The example given was of these conscripts who's duty was to maintain all those tanks in the reserves; their job was to turn over & run the tanks engines for 15-20 minutes every month, & make a report of any deficiencies.

But the problem was that everything that was of any value, had already been stolen from the tank parks.So the commander would have sold most of the diesel, the junior officers had sold the mechanics tools, & probably had the mechanics working for private garages; the NCOs had sold any optics in the tanks, & radios etc, & that just left any copper wiring that remained for privates, who sold it for scrap.

Padding contracts for T-14 tanks might have lost Billions, but this war won't be lost because of that; it'll be lost because when the General Staff went looking for T-72 tanks for the reserves, the cupboard was bare.
Perun's video?
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Hellraiser
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fishfoodie
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Hellraiser wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:32 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:42 pm One point on the corruption in the Russian Army, I heard in a youtube video, really made sense.

While the looting at the highest levels catches the eye, it's not necessarily as bad to their war effort, as the petty corruption by conscripts earning $30 a month !

The example given was of these conscripts who's duty was to maintain all those tanks in the reserves; their job was to turn over & run the tanks engines for 15-20 minutes every month, & make a report of any deficiencies.

But the problem was that everything that was of any value, had already been stolen from the tank parks.So the commander would have sold most of the diesel, the junior officers had sold the mechanics tools, & probably had the mechanics working for private garages; the NCOs had sold any optics in the tanks, & radios etc, & that just left any copper wiring that remained for privates, who sold it for scrap.

Padding contracts for T-14 tanks might have lost Billions, but this war won't be lost because of that; it'll be lost because when the General Staff went looking for T-72 tanks for the reserves, the cupboard was bare.
Perun's video?
Yep !
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Hellraiser wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:38 pm
Ahem... does France even have 200 pieces of artillery?
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Niegs
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Hey, whatever happened to the Azov commander with the beard? And the Belorussian with the 'tache?
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I think the Hussar mou was wounded at one point but haven't seen anything else.
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laurent
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TheFrog wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:27 pm
Hellraiser wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:38 pm
Ahem... does France even have 200 pieces of artillery?
We do not there is around 50 caesar and a handful of auf1 in service. I think there may be some rocket launchers somewhere in storage. Artillery is not something we have any numbers to speak of.

The only thing we have not shared that we could are the recon vehicles like ERC 90 and AMX 10
They are being replaced by the jaguar.
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FalseBayFC
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Niegs wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:18 am Hey, whatever happened to the Azov commander with the beard? And the Belorussian with the 'tache?
AZOV dude - Kalina is now a POW. I've seen pics circulating of him (purportedly) in a RU camp. I hope to fuck they get these guys swopped because they deserve to live the rest of their lives on a heroes pension.
Belarusian guy is nom de guerre Yanki. Redditors call him Warstache. He was an Apple iStore manager in 2019 and took part in the 2020 anti gov protests in Belarus.

He seems to be still active as per tweet below.

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tabascoboy
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I've only c&p'd the conclusion here but it's a long article which is best read complete with accompanying images and embeds at the link below
Russia’s Kremenchuk Claims Versus the Evidence


Deflections and Denials
The Russian account of these events presented so far does not tally with the available open source evidence; neither have the Russian authorities provided any verifiable information which could substantiate their claims.

In contrast to claims by the [Russian] MoD, the open source evidence indicates that the Amstor shopping mall was not destroyed by an explosion erupting from the nearby industrial area. Instead, video footage appeared to show a missile landed directly on the building – a central shopping mall serving a city of 219,000.

At the time of publication, dozens are reported to remain missing.
Extract from Russia’s Kremenchuk Claims Versus the Evidence
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Also, but not verified that it was an ammo depot or premises of Defence Ministry, RU reports just say "warehouse" and videos show stack of tyres nearby.
In the Russian Federation, the warehouse of the main missile and artillery directorate of the Russian Defense Ministry was blown up: explosions of ammunition 80 km from Moscow

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Watching from 8.52, I hope that was just thunder.


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Hellraiser wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:40 pm
It takes real skill to get so many things, so wrong, & in such a short period of time !
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Jesus, Bernie Ecclestone going full retard on Good Morning Britain. Full of praise for his mate Putin who he says has nothing to blame for Ukraine and its purely Zelensky that is at fault. The presenters appear in shock and don't seem to know how to deal with it.
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