So, coronavirus...

[Slick]

Which then leave you wondering what all the fuss was about - unless it was to divert attention from something else?

Don’t understand this

Which bit?

All of it actually, although I’m guessing Lobbys bit is about some countries not using the vaccine on older people?

[Saint]

Don’t understand this

Which bit?

All of it actually, although I’m guessing Lobbys bit is about some countries not using the vaccine on older people?

Given that they're not going to use AZ on their at risk populations, you've got to ask why all the anguish that AZ was going to fall short on their initial deliveries

[Slick]

Which bit?

All of it actually, although I’m guessing Lobbys bit is about some countries not using the vaccine on older people?

Given that they're not going to use AZ on their at risk populations, you've got to ask why all the anguish that AZ was going to fall short on their initial deliveries

Ahh, the EU? Apologies, genuinely just being daft.

[Saint]

All of it actually, although I’m guessing Lobbys bit is about some countries not using the vaccine on older people?

Given that they're not going to use AZ on their at risk populations, you've got to ask why all the anguish that AZ was going to fall short on their initial deliveries

Ahh, the EU? Apologies, genuinely just being daft.

No worries

[dpedin]

And yet in Europe, Germany, France and Sweden won’t use it for anyone over 65; Poland won’t use it for anyone over 60; and Italy won’t use it for anyone over 55. At their current rate of vaccination, I’m not sure they’ll actually need any AZ doses until the Autumn.

This is fantastic news and offers a route out of this shitstorm. However we need to be using this time to get TTT up to speed, put in place better support for those asked to isolate and properly close borders to avoid importing dodgy mutations. Whilst out track record in vaccination development and roll out - thanks to scientists and NHS - is top class out record in these other three essentials has been awful and need to radically improve. I would begin to start efforts to shift TTT to the NHS and PH experts and establish the local systems based around NHS/Councils we should have had in the first place, including sacking the failed TalkTalk CEO and Jockey Club Director Dido.

I thought the EU countries didnt say they wouldn't use it but were concerned there were only small numbers of older people involved in the stage 3 trials and were waiting for more data before sanctioning its use in older people. The UK took a calculated gamble, which based on other vaccines was a pretty good bet, in using it in older people and in extending the interval between 1st and 2nd dose to 12 weeks even though the evidence from the trials was incomplete. Our gamble has paid off and perhaps the EU and their regulators were just more risk averse in this case. However as the evidence emerges, primarily from the UK gamble, they will agree its use in older people very very soon.

[Saint]

And yet in Europe, Germany, France and Sweden won’t use it for anyone over 65; Poland won’t use it for anyone over 60; and Italy won’t use it for anyone over 55. At their current rate of vaccination, I’m not sure they’ll actually need any AZ doses until the Autumn.

This is fantastic news and offers a route out of this shitstorm. However we need to be using this time to get TTT up to speed, put in place better support for those asked to isolate and properly close borders to avoid importing dodgy mutations. Whilst out track record in vaccination development and roll out - thanks to scientists and NHS - is top class out record in these other three essentials has been awful and need to radically improve. I would begin to start efforts to shift TTT to the NHS and PH experts and establish the local systems based around NHS/Councils we should have had in the first place, including sacking the failed TalkTalk CEO and Jockey Club Director Dido.

I thought the EU countries didnt say they wouldn't use it but were concerned there were only small numbers of older people involved in the stage 3 trials and were waiting for more data before sanctioning its use in older people. The UK took a calculated gamble, which based on other vaccines was a pretty good bet, in using it in older people and in extending the interval between 1st and 2nd dose to 12 weeks even though the evidence from the trials was incomplete. Our gamble has paid off and perhaps the EU and their regulators were just more risk averse in this case. However as the evidence emerges, primarily from the UK gamble, they will agree its use in older people very very soon.

I would be fairly certain the MHRA has had access to all of the data in this study as part of their rolling review with AZ and their general partnership with Oxford for some time - hence why some decisions were made the way they were

[Raggs]

Yeah, fairly sure I read that they were assessing the data as it came in, rather than waiting for the whole study to finish. Obviously they'd still need to do stuff once the studies were done, but probably saved a huge amount of time by being on top of it the whole time.

[tc27]

I Understand TTT looks like it might be working reasonably well now (considering the billions thrown at it to be expected) I suppose the issue is how well people comply with it considering there little actual enforcement of self isolation rules. Also the massive surge in testing being carried out in Surrey is a new capability (for a non Asian nation) and a result of the UK having a massive testing capacity now.

THe EUCO's decision to prioritise process and cost over saving lives (and billions in economic activity) in approvals is simply stupid. The increasingly bizarre briefings against the UK underline this. The actual people making the decisions (MRHA and JCVI) about approvals and dosing's are not politicians making gambles but professional scientists making informed decisions..

[Lobby]

And yet in Europe, Germany, France and Sweden won’t use it for anyone over 65; Poland won’t use it for anyone over 60; and Italy won’t use it for anyone over 55. At their current rate of vaccination, I’m not sure they’ll actually need any AZ doses until the Autumn.

This is fantastic news and offers a route out of this shitstorm. However we need to be using this time to get TTT up to speed, put in place better support for those asked to isolate and properly close borders to avoid importing dodgy mutations. Whilst out track record in vaccination development and roll out - thanks to scientists and NHS - is top class out record in these other three essentials has been awful and need to radically improve. I would begin to start efforts to shift TTT to the NHS and PH experts and establish the local systems based around NHS/Councils we should have had in the first place, including sacking the failed TalkTalk CEO and Jockey Club Director Dido.

I thought the EU countries didnt say they wouldn't use it but were concerned there were only small numbers of older people involved in the stage 3 trials and were waiting for more data before sanctioning its use in older people. The UK took a calculated gamble, which based on other vaccines was a pretty good bet, in using it in older people and in extending the interval between 1st and 2nd dose to 12 weeks even though the evidence from the trials was incomplete. Our gamble has paid off and perhaps the EU and their regulators were just more risk averse in this case. However as the evidence emerges, primarily from the UK gamble, they will agree its use in older people very very soon.

I would be fairly certain the MHRA has had access to all of the data in this study as part of their rolling review with AZ and their general partnership with Oxford for some time - hence why some decisions were made the way they were

Its worth noting that the EMA has sanctioned use for all age groups, and has agreed with MHRA's assessment that, although there is limited data on efficacy in older groups, all the other data such as immune response suggest it should have a similar efficacy to other age groups, and as it is clearly safe to use, there are no reasons not to use it:

“There were not enough results in older participants (over 55 years old) to provide a figure for how well the vaccine will work in this group. However, protection is expected, given that an immune response is seen in this age group and based on experience with other vaccines; as there is reliable information on safety in this population, EMA’s scientific experts considered that the vaccine can be used in older adults.”

At the moment, the decision of several EU states to ignore the EMA's advice and not use the AZ vaccine for older people looks more like an expression of their current discontent with AZ.

[Raggs]

This is fantastic news and offers a route out of this shitstorm. However we need to be using this time to get TTT up to speed, put in place better support for those asked to isolate and properly close borders to avoid importing dodgy mutations. Whilst out track record in vaccination development and roll out - thanks to scientists and NHS - is top class out record in these other three essentials has been awful and need to radically improve. I would begin to start efforts to shift TTT to the NHS and PH experts and establish the local systems based around NHS/Councils we should have had in the first place, including sacking the failed TalkTalk CEO and Jockey Club Director Dido.

I thought the EU countries didnt say they wouldn't use it but were concerned there were only small numbers of older people involved in the stage 3 trials and were waiting for more data before sanctioning its use in older people. The UK took a calculated gamble, which based on other vaccines was a pretty good bet, in using it in older people and in extending the interval between 1st and 2nd dose to 12 weeks even though the evidence from the trials was incomplete. Our gamble has paid off and perhaps the EU and their regulators were just more risk averse in this case. However as the evidence emerges, primarily from the UK gamble, they will agree its use in older people very very soon.

I would be fairly certain the MHRA has had access to all of the data in this study as part of their rolling review with AZ and their general partnership with Oxford for some time - hence why some decisions were made the way they were

Its worth noting that the EMA has sanctioned use for all age groups, and has agreed with MHRA's assessment that, although there is limited data on efficacy in older groups, all the other data such as immune response suggest it should have a similar efficacy to other age groups, and as it is clearly safe to use, there are no reasons not to use it:

“There were not enough results in older participants (over 55 years old) to provide a figure for how well the vaccine will work in this group. However, protection is expected, given that an immune response is seen in this age group and based on experience with other vaccines; as there is reliable information on safety in this population, EMA’s scientific experts considered that the vaccine can be used in older adults.”

At the moment, the decision of several EU states to ignore the EMA's advice and not use the AZ vaccine for older people looks more like an expression of their current discontent with AZ.

See, if this was our government, I'd be sat there thinking why they don't want to buy the really cheap vaccine currently being sold at cost, when the other options are 5-10x more expensive. And then I'd think that there's probably some financial incentive for them/their friends.

[Sandstorm]

I Understand TTT looks like it might be working reasonably well now (considering the billions thrown at it to be expected) I suppose the issue is how well people comply with it considering there little actual enforcement of self isolation rules.

Are there any stats out there showing how many people are getting alerts to self-isolate in UK?

[Saint]

I Understand TTT looks like it might be working reasonably well now (considering the billions thrown at it to be expected) I suppose the issue is how well people comply with it considering there little actual enforcement of self isolation rules.

Are there any stats out there showing how many people are getting alerts to self-isolate in UK?

No published stats. All we really know is that there's been approx 21 million downloads for England and Wales

[dpedin]

I Understand TTT looks like it might be working reasonably well now (considering the billions thrown at it to be expected) I suppose the issue is how well people comply with it considering there little actual enforcement of self isolation rules.

Are there any stats out there showing how many people are getting alerts to self-isolate in UK?

Not seen any but they will be somewhere? The need to have TTT local is that the local NHS and PH guys know their local communities and how best to engage and encourage folk to self isolate if required. They can also tie in with the funding available and make sure it is targeted to those in greatest need. The history of PH is all about boots on the ground and understanding local communities and developing local solutions. The current TTT processes is just not fit for purpose and its no use having all the expense, billions, and folk involved if it doesn't actually ensure folk self isolate for example. Its a bit like a big expensive clock but with no hour hand ... feckin useless.

[Lobby]

I would be fairly certain the MHRA has had access to all of the data in this study as part of their rolling review with AZ and their general partnership with Oxford for some time - hence why some decisions were made the way they were

Its worth noting that the EMA has sanctioned use for all age groups, and has agreed with MHRA's assessment that, although there is limited data on efficacy in older groups, all the other data such as immune response suggest it should have a similar efficacy to other age groups, and as it is clearly safe to use, there are no reasons not to use it:

“There were not enough results in older participants (over 55 years old) to provide a figure for how well the vaccine will work in this group. However, protection is expected, given that an immune response is seen in this age group and based on experience with other vaccines; as there is reliable information on safety in this population, EMA’s scientific experts considered that the vaccine can be used in older adults.”

At the moment, the decision of several EU states to ignore the EMA's advice and not use the AZ vaccine for older people looks more like an expression of their current discontent with AZ.

See, if this was our government, I'd be sat there thinking why they don't want to buy the really cheap vaccine currently being sold at cost, when the other options are 5-10x more expensive. And then I'd think that there's probably some financial incentive for them/their friends.

The EU are getting hammered in the European press for their disastrous vaccine strategy, and for being so far behind the UK in buying and then administering vaccines. They have clearly decided to spin this as them being cautious and safety-conscious, and the UK being reckless. Limiting the use of AZ vaccines (for which there will be a limited supply for a few weeks), is all part of this messaging that they are more concerned with safety than those ghastly Brits.

[Saint]

As the BBC is reporting today:

The French media is asking questions about why a French pharma firm has promised 100 million doses of its in-development Covid vaccine to the UK, when not a single order has yet been placed by France or the EU.

The Franco-Austrian Valneva - based near Nantes - has had substantial UK government financial aid of £14m to scale up its production site at Livingston in Scotland.

It also had UK help to roll out phase one and two trials of its viral vector vaccine. Results of these are due in the coming weeks and it’s hoped production could start in late summer.

Valneva director general Franck Grimaud said on BFMTV: "When we announced that we were developing our vaccine last April, we contacted several governments and institutions. It was the UK which was the first to give a comprehensive response, and we signed a pre-accord with them in July."

"It’s a failure for France. It hurts to see this beautiful business taking off for the UK," says Christelle Morancais, president of the Pays de la Loire region, who says she alerted the French government last June. "This company had solutions. [French President Emmanuel] Macron says we are at war - well in war you need different methods from our bureaucratic, technocratic form-filling."

Les Echos financial daily says: "Why has the French government not expressed interest in the Valneva project, leaving it to the British government to offer financial support and - logically therefore - reap the benefits a privileged partner?"

[SaintK]

As the BBC is reporting today:

The French media is asking questions about why a French pharma firm has promised 100 million doses of its in-development Covid vaccine to the UK, when not a single order has yet been placed by France or the EU.

The Franco-Austrian Valneva - based near Nantes - has had substantial UK government financial aid of £14m to scale up its production site at Livingston in Scotland.

It also had UK help to roll out phase one and two trials of its viral vector vaccine. Results of these are due in the coming weeks and it’s hoped production could start in late summer.

Valneva director general Franck Grimaud said on BFMTV: "When we announced that we were developing our vaccine last April, we contacted several governments and institutions. It was the UK which was the first to give a comprehensive response, and we signed a pre-accord with them in July."

"It’s a failure for France. It hurts to see this beautiful business taking off for the UK," says Christelle Morancais, president of the Pays de la Loire region, who says she alerted the French government last June. "This company had solutions. [French President Emmanuel] Macron says we are at war - well in war you need different methods from our bureaucratic, technocratic form-filling."

Les Echos financial daily says: "Why has the French government not expressed interest in the Valneva project, leaving it to the British government to offer financial support and - logically therefore - reap the benefits a privileged partner?"

Quite an endictment of Macron's local response to vaccines

[Insane_Homer]

[Insane_Homer]

[Sandstorm]

Meh, if he gets Covid again and dies, it'll be a Darwin Award if he didn't already have a dozen kids. Reckless is a nice way to put it.

[Sandstorm]

I Understand TTT looks like it might be working reasonably well now (considering the billions thrown at it to be expected) I suppose the issue is how well people comply with it considering there little actual enforcement of self isolation rules.

Are there any stats out there showing how many people are getting alerts to self-isolate in UK?

Not seen any but they will be somewhere? The need to have TTT local is that the local NHS and PH guys know their local communities and how best to engage and encourage folk to self isolate if required. They can also tie in with the funding available and make sure it is targeted to those in greatest need. The history of PH is all about boots on the ground and understanding local communities and developing local solutions. The current TTT processes is just not fit for purpose and its no use having all the expense, billions, and folk involved if it doesn't actually ensure folk self isolate for example. Its a bit like a big expensive clock but with no hour hand ... feckin useless.

Agreed. TTT should tell you to go get tested, not just to isolate. And then follow up in 2 days to ask for proof of your appointment information. And again afterwards to ask why you haven't you haven't entered your test results into the App.

It's useless.

[Lobby]

As the BBC is reporting today:

The French media is asking questions about why a French pharma firm has promised 100 million doses of its in-development Covid vaccine to the UK, when not a single order has yet been placed by France or the EU.

The Franco-Austrian Valneva - based near Nantes - has had substantial UK government financial aid of £14m to scale up its production site at Livingston in Scotland.

It also had UK help to roll out phase one and two trials of its viral vector vaccine. Results of these are due in the coming weeks and it’s hoped production could start in late summer.

Valneva director general Franck Grimaud said on BFMTV: "When we announced that we were developing our vaccine last April, we contacted several governments and institutions. It was the UK which was the first to give a comprehensive response, and we signed a pre-accord with them in July."

"It’s a failure for France. It hurts to see this beautiful business taking off for the UK," says Christelle Morancais, president of the Pays de la Loire region, who says she alerted the French government last June. "This company had solutions. [French President Emmanuel] Macron says we are at war - well in war you need different methods from our bureaucratic, technocratic form-filling."

Les Echos financial daily says: "Why has the French government not expressed interest in the Valneva project, leaving it to the British government to offer financial support and - logically therefore - reap the benefits a privileged partner?"

Quite an endictment of Macron's local response to vaccines

The Valneva CEO was interviewed on the Today programme yesterday. He confirmed that the EU had yet to show any interest in the vaccine:

“We signed our first letter of intent with the UK Government last July, and then we signed the supply partnership and clinical development partnership with them in September, but as of yet we haven’t signed anything with the EU.”

and went on to say that if the EU wanted to get doses at the same time as the UK, they would have to order at the same time, endorsing the points previously made by AZ.

“Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

[SaintK]

Are there any stats out there showing how many people are getting alerts to self-isolate in UK?

Not seen any but they will be somewhere? The need to have TTT local is that the local NHS and PH guys know their local communities and how best to engage and encourage folk to self isolate if required. They can also tie in with the funding available and make sure it is targeted to those in greatest need. The history of PH is all about boots on the ground and understanding local communities and developing local solutions. The current TTT processes is just not fit for purpose and its no use having all the expense, billions, and folk involved if it doesn't actually ensure folk self isolate for example. Its a bit like a big expensive clock but with no hour hand ... feckin useless.

Agreed. TTT should tell you to go get tested, not just to isolate. And then follow up in 2 days to ask for proof of your appointment information. And again afterwards to ask why you haven't you haven't entered your test results into the App.

It's useless.

............yet Harding was trotting out similar excuses to those she was using last September as the reason they were still not hitting targets

Harding claimed that no one was able to predict that a new variant of the virus would emerge. She made the claim as she was defending the overall record of test and trace, in response to criticism from Greg Clark, the committee chair, who suggested that it had failed to stop England going back into a lockdown.

Still, her chums at Deloittes will be more than happy!

[Biffer]

38,000 vaccinated yesterday in Scotland. Looks like it's ramping up well.

[tc27]

38,000 vaccinated yesterday in Scotland. Looks like it's ramping up well.

Great stuff.

We are gonna beat this thing.

[SaintK]

Good news if accurate from Steven Swinford of The Times

[Hal Jordan]

It appears that Matt Hancock took inspiration from the film Contagion in handling the pandemic. Whether or not he's kidding, given what's happened thank fuck he didn't decide to watch 28 Days Later instead.

[Chrysoprase]

Latest installment in the "you really couldn't make this up" category. It would appear that Hancock's understanding of the need for a vaccination strategy was based on a Hollywood movie, rather than scientific advice.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55917374

Edit: damn you Hal Jordan, damn you to hell!!

[Biffer]

It appears that Matt Hancock took inspiration from the film Contagion in handling the pandemic. Whether or not he's kidding, given what's happened thank fuck he didn't decide to watch 28 Days Later instead.

Pretty sure Boris was watching the latter.

[Biffer]

38,000 vaccinated yesterday in Scotland. Looks like it's ramping up well.

Great stuff.

We are gonna beat this thing.

Yeah, that rate and a bit more gets all 9 JCVI groups done with a first jab by end of March or early April.

[tc27]

My response to the fact that Hancock made decisions based on a film is so what....maybe its even a good thing

The pandemic plan the UK used had modelled an SARS type infection and drew a serious of conclusions that lead to wrong or delayed decisions last spring.

Pandemic is mostly entertainment but it was regarded as being a realistic film and had WHO and various scientific advisors helping write the script - if the infection it modelled help a government minister make a better decision (because it accurately predicted the scrabble for vaccines if nothing else) thats fine by me.

Reminds me that Reagan decided to try and improve relations with the USSR and limit nuclear weapons based in part from watching 'The Day After'.

[Saint]

Nearly 377K vaccinations yesterday - again significantly up on the previous week

7 day average nearly 412K per day. Just shy of 2.9 million doses per week now.

[sturginho]

Edit: damn you Hal Jordan, damn you to hell!!

That's what Sinestro said

[Saint]

Good news if accurate from Steven Swinford of The Times

If we could reach the new weekly target of 5 million per week immediately we'd be done and dusted by mid-July. Even at the current rate we're talking about mid-to-late September against an initial plan of mid-October

[Sandstorm]

Nearly 377K vaccinations yesterday - again significantly up on the previous week

7 day average nearly 412K per day. Just shy of 2.9 million doses per week now.

Cruising.

[tabascoboy]

10 million doses now given, reportedly

There have been 10,021,471 first doses - a rise of 374,756 compared with yesterday.

Some 498,962 second doses have been administered - an increase of 2,166 from yesterday.

Some areas must be really cracking on with it, only just at 10% of the 1.8m in my county.

[Slick]

Good news if accurate from Steven Swinford of The Times

If we could reach the new weekly target of 5 million per week immediately we'd be done and dusted by mid-July. Even at the current rate we're talking about mid-to-late September against an initial plan of mid-October

What kind of figures do you think we need to start easing restrictions (get pubs open)?

[Sandstorm]

Good news if accurate from Steven Swinford of The Times

If we could reach the new weekly target of 5 million per week immediately we'd be done and dusted by mid-July. Even at the current rate we're talking about mid-to-late September against an initial plan of mid-October

What kind of figures do you think we need to start easing restrictions (get pubs open)?

Surely they'll look at infection/death rates rather than vaccine numbers? Although knowing this lot they'll base it on the colour of the gas on Venus.

[Saint]

Good news if accurate from Steven Swinford of The Times

If we could reach the new weekly target of 5 million per week immediately we'd be done and dusted by mid-July. Even at the current rate we're talking about mid-to-late September against an initial plan of mid-October

What kind of figures do you think we need to start easing restrictions (get pubs open)?

I think it's more than just the vaccine figures, and it's going to be slowly staged. Firstly they'll look to reopen schools - it sounds like they're planning to do this in stages starting likely sometime around early March, but the timing will depend on what ICU capacity exists, and they'll probably want a 2 week gap between each stage to monitor the impact on ICU capacity and positive tests. So, for instance, I've seen a possible start date of March 8th being mentioned - you're likely looking at mid to late April to complete that, and they'll probably be looking to reopen non-essential retail in that timeframe as well.

By that point though we're into Spring, so the expectation would be that infection rates would be tailing off anyway, and you're also close to completing ALL of the priority groups - so new cases, and at least new serious cases, should be heading downwards at a rate of knots by then, even with the phased reopening. That being the case I could see a return to a Tier 3 type pub and restaurant environment sometime around then as well with the aim to drop those restrictions back to the Tier 1/2 type situation we had last summer ASAP. I would expect facemasks indoors, distancing, and mandatory sign in for tracking purposes to remain mandatory though until virtually all the vaccination is complete and we're comfortable that the current generation of vaccines are effective enough to prevent a new exponential pandemic from a new strain

Overseas leisure travel probably becomes a realistic possibility around July/August depending on the destination country. But there will still be expectations of self-isolation for arrivals from a LOT of the world for a couple of years at least

[Biffer]

If we could reach the new weekly target of 5 million per week immediately we'd be done and dusted by mid-July. Even at the current rate we're talking about mid-to-late September against an initial plan of mid-October

What kind of figures do you think we need to start easing restrictions (get pubs open)?

I think it's more than just the vaccine figures, and it's going to be slowly staged. Firstly they'll look to reopen schools - it sounds like they're planning to do this in stages starting likely sometime around early March, but the timing will depend on what ICU capacity exists, and they'll probably want a 2 week gap between each stage to monitor the impact on ICU capacity and positive tests. So, for instance, I've seen a possible start date of March 8th being mentioned - you're likely looking at mid to late April to complete that, and they'll probably be looking to reopen non-essential retail in that timeframe as well.

By that point though we're into Spring, so the expectation would be that infection rates would be tailing off anyway, and you're also close to completing ALL of the priority groups - so new cases, and at least new serious cases, should be heading downwards at a rate of knots by then, even with the phased reopening. That being the case I could see a return to a Tier 3 type pub and restaurant environment sometime around then as well with the aim to drop those restrictions back to the Tier 1/2 type situation we had last summer ASAP. I would expect facemasks indoors, distancing, and mandatory sign in for tracking purposes to remain mandatory though until virtually all the vaccination is complete and we're comfortable that the current generation of vaccines are effective enough to prevent a new exponential pandemic from a new strain

Overseas leisure travel probably becomes a realistic possibility around July/August depending on the destination country. But there will still be expectations of self-isolation for arrivals from a LOT of the world for a couple of years at least

What are my chances of going to the test match in the first week in August? I reckon all JCVI will have had both shots by then, and another 10 or 15 million will have had their first dose, so I’m hopeful.

[Saint]

What kind of figures do you think we need to start easing restrictions (get pubs open)?

I think it's more than just the vaccine figures, and it's going to be slowly staged. Firstly they'll look to reopen schools - it sounds like they're planning to do this in stages starting likely sometime around early March, but the timing will depend on what ICU capacity exists, and they'll probably want a 2 week gap between each stage to monitor the impact on ICU capacity and positive tests. So, for instance, I've seen a possible start date of March 8th being mentioned - you're likely looking at mid to late April to complete that, and they'll probably be looking to reopen non-essential retail in that timeframe as well.

By that point though we're into Spring, so the expectation would be that infection rates would be tailing off anyway, and you're also close to completing ALL of the priority groups - so new cases, and at least new serious cases, should be heading downwards at a rate of knots by then, even with the phased reopening. That being the case I could see a return to a Tier 3 type pub and restaurant environment sometime around then as well with the aim to drop those restrictions back to the Tier 1/2 type situation we had last summer ASAP. I would expect facemasks indoors, distancing, and mandatory sign in for tracking purposes to remain mandatory though until virtually all the vaccination is complete and we're comfortable that the current generation of vaccines are effective enough to prevent a new exponential pandemic from a new strain

Overseas leisure travel probably becomes a realistic possibility around July/August depending on the destination country. But there will still be expectations of self-isolation for arrivals from a LOT of the world for a couple of years at least

What are my chances of going to the test match in the first week in August? I reckon all JCVI will have had both shots by then, and another 10 or 15 million will have had their first dose, so I’m hopeful.

Depending on ICU beds and the believed r rate I could see the stadium open but with limited capacity. I think effectively zero chance that it will be open to full capacity, so your chances are probably more limited by ticket availability than anything else