What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

So, Snake Island was struck again with a Pantsir allegedly destroyed. And now

[laurent]

Snake Island Evacuated now

as a goodwill gesture

[TheFrog]

Can Kherson be their next good will gesture?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Feel like there is a combination of factors at play, not the least of which being the new weaponry supplies making a safe occupation of the island completely untenable.

Also, even the stubborn Russian leadership perhaps realising that strong reaction about the attack on the shopping mall and the blockade (and stealing) of grain exports is bad press that even they can't just brush aside. Now they will put the onus on Ukraine to demine sea approaches to Odesa and reopen shipping lanes so that Russia can deflect blame outwards as usual. Some of the threatening rhetoric regarding Sweden and Finland's wishes for NATO membership has been toned down a little too.

Always keep in mind that Russian press announcements are aimed at their domestic audience first and foremost.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

How far did it get before the screws fell off ?

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Well, Russia wants to pick a new fight

Russia accuses Norway of Arctic blockade and threatens reprisals

Moscow accused Norway on Wednesday of blocking the transit of goods to Russians living in the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard and threatened Oslo with retaliation.

"We demanded that the Norwegian side resolve this issue as soon as possible," Russia's foreign ministry diplomacy said in a statement, announcing that the Norwegian chargé d'affaires in Moscow had been summoned.

"We stressed that unfriendly actions towards Russia lead to retaliatory measures," it added.

Russia claims that Norway blocked supplies of equipment and food at the Storskog land border crossing that were to be loaded onto a ship bound for Svalbard for Russian miners in the archipelago.

According to Sergei Gushkin, the Russian consul on the Arctic archipelago, the cargo consisted of 20 tonnes of goods, including seven tonnes of foodstuffs, spare parts and essential equipment to prepare for the winter.


Norway is blocking the goods in the application of European sanctions adopted against Russia because of its war in Ukraine, the diplomat said.

"I think Norway has not thought through joining the EU sanctions," he added.

Gushkin said Russia was exploring alternative supply routes, including from Europe or by sea from the Russian city of Murmansk.

Where is Svalbard?
Svalbard, a thousand kilometres from the North Pole, is twice the size of Belgium and is sometimes referred to as NATO's "Achilles heel in the Arctic".

A 1920 Paris treaty recognises Norway's sovereignty over Svalbard but also guarantees that 46 other signatory states — including Russia — are free to exploit the natural resources there "on a perfectly equal footing".

For decades, Russia and the former USSR has been mining coal in these territories, which are inhabited by fewer than 3,000 people of some 50 nationalities.

The deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council, Konstantin Kossachev, has accused Oslo of violating the Treaty of Paris.

"The Norwegian authorities are trying to ensure that Russian minors are left without food, which is in itself amoral. This violates human rights, and the principles of humanism," he wrote on Telegram.

The Russian consul, however, denied that there was any risk of food shortages.

Norway hit by cyberattacks
On Wednesday, Norwegian authorities also reported that a cyberattack had temporarily knocked out public and private websites.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said that to his knowledge the attack “has not caused any significant damage.”

The distributed-denial-of-service (DDOS) attack targeted a secure national data network, the Norwegian National Security Authority said (NSM). It forced several public and private websites to temporarily suspend their online services.

A criminal pro-Russian group seems to be behind the attacks, NSM head Sofie Nystrøm said.

She added that the attacks “give the impression that we are a piece in the current political situation in Europe.”

The incident came two days after a similar attack temporarily knocked out public and private websites in Lithuania, with a pro-Moscow hacker group reportedly claiming responsibility.

That incident after Russian officials threatened to retaliate because Lithuania restricted the transit of sanctioned goods to the exclave of Kaliningrad.



https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/29/rus ... -reprisals

[Hellraiser]

[yermum]

Not that I have huge sympathy for the Russians but the staggering waste of young lives is laid bare in that peice.

500 from one regiment. It's like a whole battalion of the paras getting killed.

[TheFrog]

Watched a documentary on Macron during the 6 months he was at the head of the European Union. The documentary focuses on the Ukraine crisis.

One think that stroke me was that Putin was zhit scared of NATO getting directly involved. At one point he said to Macron "of course, there is no comparison between NATO and Russia, but Russia has the nuclear fire." I think all his nuclear threats just underlined how worried he was that NATO fired back.

[tabascoboy]

Russians destroy another high value military target. Needs to be declared a terrorist state and kicked out of the UN Security Council

[Hellraiser]

Russians destroy another high value military target. Needs to be declared a terrorist state and kicked out of the UN Security Council

I don't believe there's any mechanism to kick a permanent member off the security, which just re-emphasises just what a joke the UN is.

[fishfoodie]

Russians destroy another high value military target. Needs to be declared a terrorist state and kicked out of the UN Security Council

I don't believe there's any mechanism to kick a permanent member off the security, which just re-emphasises just what a joke the UN is.

There are good bits in the UN, but the security council is a waste of time.

[Guy Smiley]

I don't believe there's any mechanism to kick a permanent member off the security, which just re-emphasises just what a joke the UN is.

There are good bits in the UN, but the security council is a waste of time.

It's been a bit of a toothless tiger in many ways... but the UN was formed out of a desire to avoid war, not indulge it. In that respect, keeping the powerful military nations in and talking to each other is probably preferable to having them outside and fighting.

[Hellraiser]

It's another League of Nations. Completely useless.

[Biffer]

It's another League of Nations. Completely useless.

It’s been a component part of the international order that’s prevented the major blocks from going to war with each other for nearly eighty years. Far from perfect, but it’s not there to do your will.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

UA forces definitely seem to be focusing on ammo and fuel depots/storage for long range attacks; Popasna, Makiivka and that old favourite Chornobaivka Airport all sites of explosions and loads of smoke this morning.

[Hellraiser]

UA forces definitely seem to be focusing on ammo and fuel depots/storage for long range attacks; Popasna, Makiivka and that old favourite Chornobaivka Airport all sites of explosions and loads of smoke this morning.

Artillery is useless without ammo.

[tabascoboy]

UA forces definitely seem to be focusing on ammo and fuel depots/storage for long range attacks; Popasna, Makiivka and that old favourite Chornobaivka Airport all sites of explosions and loads of smoke this morning.

Artillery is useless without ammo.

Not much would survive this, God knows what they were keeping in there. Big badda boom...

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Reports, though not confirmed by UA official sources, Russia has or is close to full control of Lysychansk, and thus Luhansk province. UA will now have to fall back and regroup ( by no means easy) to a new defensive line but they will have had plenty of time to prepare this in the preceding years and by slowing down enemy advances over the last few weeks. That was probably all that could be expected in the circumstances. Has to be borne in mind that this is an area of little more than 20km by 20km that has been this particular battleground for weeks, so while no Russian advance is good it's not the end of the world.

[TheFrog]

I like that we start to see videos of Ukrainians destroying Russian assets again. Hope it is a sign of a slow reversal of the current tide.

[tabascoboy]

[TheFrog]

Finally. They need more. They need to be able to tear the Russian logistics chain to pieces.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Finally. They need more. They need to be able to tear the Russian logistics chain to pieces.

I don't think they need too many more; because they're using them smartly.

They use them to push the Orcs back, & now they bring their older artillery into that gap, & use it to smash the DPR forces that the Orcs are happy to use as cannon fodder.

They destroy the DPR forces morale, & further weaken the Orcs.

The Ukrainians will only win this, if they can break the morale of opposing forces, & the weakest point is the DPR patriots.

This war is supposedly all about freeing them from fascism; so if they all throw in the towel, then the typical Russian conscript isn't going to want to die to free a guy who obviously won't do the same themselves.

[TheFrog]

I wonder how much wishful thinking there is out there about the short term consequences of all this. Russia keeps taking ground and looksike they will own much of Eastern Ukraine. Was it worth it? They can spin it was without much effort. Long term consequences. Well who knows but the seal is broken and I would fear for the next few generations

Long term consequences could be severe for Europe if we don't box Putin back in his box. That being said, even with a Ukrainian victory, there will be painful long term consequences for Europe. The world has changed, there is a monster on our doors and there will be tensions at least for as long as Putin is in power and may be more depending on his successors.

[Flockwitt]

I wonder how much wishful thinking there is out there about the short term consequences of all this. Russia keeps taking ground and looksike they will own much of Eastern Ukraine. Was it worth it? They can spin it was without much effort. Long term consequences. Well who knows but the seal is broken and I would fear for the next few generations

Not quite sure where you are going with this in that you are discussing the situation like Russia has any chance to hold the territories it has captured. Russia can't hold these territories. It's a dream that's being pushed by Russian propaganda with their Russian education, banking system and IT infrastructure they're trying to implement.

Have a look at the shelling maps that come from NASA's fire detection system. Denys's latest video is a good example. Ukraine isn't hitting the front line in Izyum, they're hitting all around Izyum itself - supply bases, barracks, repair facilities. This isn't WWI. This war is unique in the ability of weapons to accurately hit soft targets far beyond the front lines. Ukraine is only getting going here. Consider the consequences as this rearward attrition steadily mounts. Russia can't sustain constant losses of men and materiel in these territories for 6 months let alone 6 years, and that's without any offensive operations by the Ukrainian army.

[tabascoboy]

Things appear to have heated up overnight and this morning - at least in propaganda. Reported UA attacks on infrastructure in Belgorod, Kursk RU and Melitopol in UA with Belgorod and Kursk attacks claimed to have hit residential districts - though that could just as easily be their own anti-air defence missiles.

Russia meanwhile launches its usual salvo into Kharkiv...

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[TheFrog]

That has to be the tactic now for Ukraine. Beyond resisting on the front lines, they have to make life impossible for the Russians in occupied territory as well as sabotaging logistics.