The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[Slick]

In happier news, I've managed to get all our main party candidates for where I live to agree to a hustings tonight on the beach to discuss water pollution.

I say "all", but the Conservative candidate didn't come back to us... but we have SNP, Labour, LD and Greens.

[epwc]

Well done, I wanted to do a hustings at the mosque but just too busy to organise it

[_Os_]

A government focused on red meat nonsense that cannot work is most of the issue. The right wing newspapers haven't been isolated by the government, instead the Tories made immigration their entire purpose for being in government from the hostile environment, to Brexit, to the Rwanda Scheme and Stop The Boats. The reason immigration has dominated everything for a decade, is because the government wanted it to.

A sane government does not do that.

If people still want to vote for loonies and cripple the country in the process, then they have to get on and do it. Eventually they'll learn, the longer they keep voting for mad stuff the more fucked they'll be, after they keep getting what they vote for they'll eventually give up.

I think that immigration started out as a dead cat for the blonde cunt, to deflect from whatever other shite was happening that he needed to deflect from, & thru a succession of truly disgusting Home Secretaries, who all loved the attention, it didn't die, because it served them all to keep it bubbling away.

Then in comes the headboy, who it's been widely reported saw the whole exercise as stupid, & expensive, but was in the same place as the rest, & needed a distraction, & probably thought he might be able to get some kind of "win" from it with a flight to Rwanda, because he'd never get anything positive from any of the other issues like inflation, the NHS, an economy in recession, etc, etc.

So they elevated a non-issue to be a serious one, just so that they could "solve" it

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Who are the people most impacted by immigration? Probably not anywhere Reform are targeting. Farage is running in Clacton which is 90%+ white British and 95%+ white. If proximity to immigrants increased anti-immigrant views then Farage would be running inside the M25 somewhere, maybe somewhere in south London which is majority white British, or somewhere else in London which isn't majority white British but is still 40% which normally wins the seat.

In the UK the places which have had no immigration and have a broken economy to such an extent there's poverty, are more likely to be anti-immigrant. The NF and BNP used to campaign in major cities, those days are long gone. It's seaside dumps now.

Brexit got blamed on the North of England and the Red Wall etc. There were towns and cities in the North which voted remain. Plenty of well off very white places in the South of England voted for Brexit, this isn't in the discussion because TV crews didn't pitch up in posh villages in the South asking them why they were knuckle dragging Blue Wallers, but did go to places in the North to ask why they were knuckle dragging Red Wallers.

The correct way to deal with all this is what Cameron did in the 00s when he said UKIPers were loons and racists then refused to apologise. The Tories should be saying they reject Farage because they disagree with him, not just that they reject him because he's not actually a winner electorally. They've said neither for well over 10 years, they've fully gone in on the immigration stuff. They're now fucked.

[tabascoboy]

Farage getting a rough ride on media round today. He got completely owned by Susanna Reid, that political heavyweight on TVAM this morning! He really cant stand any questioning and being held to account! Frog faced racist Cnut!

https://x.com/GMB/status/1802972521257423042

To be fair that's true pretty much across the board currently, look at Rishi for example. Over reliance on thoroughly prepared responses which are mainly soundbites and mantras whether or not they actually address the question asked. An inability to think on their feet when asked something unexpected so they have to turn it back to something they are more comfortable with. Evasiveness and ability to obfuscate is a prerequisite more now than ever.

[Paddington Bear]

I think that immigration started out as a dead cat for the blonde cunt, to deflect from whatever other shite was happening that he needed to deflect from, & thru a succession of truly disgusting Home Secretaries, who all loved the attention, it didn't die, because it served them all to keep it bubbling away.

Then in comes the headboy, who it's been widely reported saw the whole exercise as stupid, & expensive, but was in the same place as the rest, & needed a distraction, & probably thought he might be able to get some kind of "win" from it with a flight to Rwanda, because he'd never get anything positive from any of the other issues like inflation, the NHS, an economy in recession, etc, etc.

So they elevated a non-issue to be a serious one, just so that they could "solve" it

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Who are the people most impacted by immigration? Probably not anywhere Reform are targeting. Farage is running in Clacton which is 90%+ white British and 95%+ white. If proximity to immigrants increased anti-immigrant views then Farage would be running inside the M25 somewhere, maybe somewhere in south London which is majority white British, or somewhere else in London which isn't majority white British but is still 40% which normally wins the seat.

In the UK the places which have had no immigration and have a broken economy to such an extent there's poverty, are more likely to be anti-immigrant. The NF and BNP used to campaign in major cities, those days are long gone. It's seaside dumps now.

Brexit got blamed on the North of England and the Red Wall etc. There were towns and cities in the North which voted remain. Plenty of well off very white places in the South of England voted for Brexit, this isn't in the discussion because TV crews didn't pitch up in posh villages in the South asking them why they were knuckle dragging Blue Wallers, but did go to places in the North to ask why they were knuckle dragging Red Wallers.

The correct way to deal with all this is what Cameron did in the 00s when he said UKIPers were loons and racists then refused to apologise. The Tories should be saying they reject Farage because they disagree with him, not just that they reject him because he's not actually a winner electorally. They've said neither for well over 10 years, they've fully gone in on the immigration stuff. They're now fucked.

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

[Lobby]

According to this survey from 2022, the UK public are far more positive about immigration than almost any other country, with only 31% thinking there should be strict limits on immigration.

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/ ... 01-115.pdf

Out of 17 countries, the UK is the most accepting of immigration. 31% think the government should place strict limits on the number of foreigners who can come to the country or should prohibit people from coming altogether – the lowest of all the nations.

Correspondingly, 68% of the UK public think we should either let anyone come to the country who wants to or let them come as long as there are jobs available – the highest of the 17 nations, ahead of Germany (64%), Canada (61%) and Mexico (59%), the next most accepting countries by this measure

The UK also has the most positive views regarding the impacts of immigration. This despite decades of Farage and his ilk trying to sow division about immigration.

European Social Survey results show similar results with the UK being amongst the least anti-immigration of European countries in 2021, with only public opinion in Norway being more favourable.

[sturginho]

Onto some more serious political news now

[_Os_]

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Who are the people most impacted by immigration? Probably not anywhere Reform are targeting. Farage is running in Clacton which is 90%+ white British and 95%+ white. If proximity to immigrants increased anti-immigrant views then Farage would be running inside the M25 somewhere, maybe somewhere in south London which is majority white British, or somewhere else in London which isn't majority white British but is still 40% which normally wins the seat.

In the UK the places which have had no immigration and have a broken economy to such an extent there's poverty, are more likely to be anti-immigrant. The NF and BNP used to campaign in major cities, those days are long gone. It's seaside dumps now.

Brexit got blamed on the North of England and the Red Wall etc. There were towns and cities in the North which voted remain. Plenty of well off very white places in the South of England voted for Brexit, this isn't in the discussion because TV crews didn't pitch up in posh villages in the South asking them why they were knuckle dragging Blue Wallers, but did go to places in the North to ask why they were knuckle dragging Red Wallers.

The correct way to deal with all this is what Cameron did in the 00s when he said UKIPers were loons and racists then refused to apologise. The Tories should be saying they reject Farage because they disagree with him, not just that they reject him because he's not actually a winner electorally. They've said neither for well over 10 years, they've fully gone in on the immigration stuff. They're now fucked.

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

[_Os_]

Lee Anderson's constituency, the only Reform seat. The immigrants are to blame for it being a shit hole apparently. Not Thatcher's reforms ending mining and heavy industry. Not Tory austerity cutting services. The immigrants. So much so people are cool telling a brown woman to fuck off back where she came from (politely of course), on camera.

(narrator: Ashfield in 95%+ white British)

[robmatic]

Who are the people most impacted by immigration? Probably not anywhere Reform are targeting. Farage is running in Clacton which is 90%+ white British and 95%+ white. If proximity to immigrants increased anti-immigrant views then Farage would be running inside the M25 somewhere, maybe somewhere in south London which is majority white British, or somewhere else in London which isn't majority white British but is still 40% which normally wins the seat.

In the UK the places which have had no immigration and have a broken economy to such an extent there's poverty, are more likely to be anti-immigrant. The NF and BNP used to campaign in major cities, those days are long gone. It's seaside dumps now.

Brexit got blamed on the North of England and the Red Wall etc. There were towns and cities in the North which voted remain. Plenty of well off very white places in the South of England voted for Brexit, this isn't in the discussion because TV crews didn't pitch up in posh villages in the South asking them why they were knuckle dragging Blue Wallers, but did go to places in the North to ask why they were knuckle dragging Red Wallers.

The correct way to deal with all this is what Cameron did in the 00s when he said UKIPers were loons and racists then refused to apologise. The Tories should be saying they reject Farage because they disagree with him, not just that they reject him because he's not actually a winner electorally. They've said neither for well over 10 years, they've fully gone in on the immigration stuff. They're now fucked.

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

We are fortunate that under a prospective Labour government people will vote rationally after a period of critical self-reflection.

[Paddington Bear]

Who are the people most impacted by immigration? Probably not anywhere Reform are targeting. Farage is running in Clacton which is 90%+ white British and 95%+ white. If proximity to immigrants increased anti-immigrant views then Farage would be running inside the M25 somewhere, maybe somewhere in south London which is majority white British, or somewhere else in London which isn't majority white British but is still 40% which normally wins the seat.

In the UK the places which have had no immigration and have a broken economy to such an extent there's poverty, are more likely to be anti-immigrant. The NF and BNP used to campaign in major cities, those days are long gone. It's seaside dumps now.

Brexit got blamed on the North of England and the Red Wall etc. There were towns and cities in the North which voted remain. Plenty of well off very white places in the South of England voted for Brexit, this isn't in the discussion because TV crews didn't pitch up in posh villages in the South asking them why they were knuckle dragging Blue Wallers, but did go to places in the North to ask why they were knuckle dragging Red Wallers.

The correct way to deal with all this is what Cameron did in the 00s when he said UKIPers were loons and racists then refused to apologise. The Tories should be saying they reject Farage because they disagree with him, not just that they reject him because he's not actually a winner electorally. They've said neither for well over 10 years, they've fully gone in on the immigration stuff. They're now fucked.

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

‘When I ask loaded questions I get the answers I want’


It’s pointless asking what professions people want to give visas too when the vast majority of people getting a visa aren’t working! As for other targeted questions that elicit reactions, see audience reactions when they’re made aware of the scale.

[Slick]

Two things spring to mind reading through the above comments - the first is that since 2016 net EU migration to the UK fell and continues to do so. Non-EU migration took off like a rocket from the same date - that might be an obvious thing to say when overall number are rising, but one of the major lies about Brexit was that "taking back control of our borders" bullshit.

The second is that I know university careers guidance counsellors, the appointments they dread are the ones with foreign national students for whom, after paying tens of thousands, there are no jobs because employers won't touch them with a barge pole due to the visa situation.

Of course the other great irony/annoyance/idiocy of all this is that the UK visa scheme for business people in Africa wanting to come here and do business is in such a fucking mess that many give up. I spend a part of my week writing letters of support for people wanting to come over for meetings/training/conferences and I reckon 50% at least get turned down with no valid reason.

[Raggs]

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

‘When I ask loaded questions I get the answers I want’


It’s pointless asking what professions people want to give visas too when the vast majority of people getting a visa aren’t working! As for other targeted questions that elicit reactions, see audience reactions when they’re made aware of the scale.

The majority are tourists. I'm going to hope we're just discussing non tourists though.

After that, the next largest group is work visas. Followed by study visas. Then a long way down is family visa etc, like less than 10% compared to work and study.

[fishfoodie]

When polled, every single demographic believes immigration is too high

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

‘When I ask loaded questions I get the answers I want’


It’s pointless asking what professions people want to give visas too when the vast majority of people getting a visa aren’t working! As for other targeted questions that elicit reactions, see audience reactions when they’re made aware of the scale.

[fishfoodie]

A government focused on red meat nonsense that cannot work is most of the issue. The right wing newspapers haven't been isolated by the government, instead the Tories made immigration their entire purpose for being in government from the hostile environment, to Brexit, to the Rwanda Scheme and Stop The Boats. The reason immigration has dominated everything for a decade, is because the government wanted it to.

A sane government does not do that.

If people still want to vote for loonies and cripple the country in the process, then they have to get on and do it. Eventually they'll learn, the longer they keep voting for mad stuff the more fucked they'll be, after they keep getting what they vote for they'll eventually give up.

I think that immigration started out as a dead cat for the blonde cunt, to deflect from whatever other shite was happening that he needed to deflect from, & thru a succession of truly disgusting Home Secretaries, who all loved the attention, it didn't die, because it served them all to keep it bubbling away.

Then in comes the headboy, who it's been widely reported saw the whole exercise as stupid, & expensive, but was in the same place as the rest, & needed a distraction, & probably thought he might be able to get some kind of "win" from it with a flight to Rwanda, because he'd never get anything positive from any of the other issues like inflation, the NHS, an economy in recession, etc, etc.

So they elevated a non-issue to be a serious one, just so that they could "solve" it

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Okay, Non-Issue is too strong; I think immigration has become an issue across Europe in the last couple of decades, but I think the point I'm making is that when voters have ten or twelve issues laid out before them, & immigration is one, the vast majority don't pick it in the top three, & probably the top five, when they put it alongside healthcare, employment, crime etc etc.

It suits a particular cohort to make immigration an issue, & pretend that it is more of a cause for; their Nan not being able to get an appointment with her GP, when actually there are a dozen other Government policies over the last decade that had much more impact on that than a few dozen more immigrants in the area.

[C69]

IPSOS poll has Labour with a 256 and the Tories on 115.
Really hope this happens. Only total annihilation is good enough for Rishi and the Tory cronies.
I hope there are a few Potillo moments to savour.

[sturginho]

Too low resolution and the sort of question someone that's a really good operator would reject (Mandelson). Because the next question is what immigration don't you want? And it turns out there's support for almost every category, there's recent polling on different professions only bankers don't get support. The same 20% that's always there are the only group against when it's broken down into actual examples:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/attitudes-towards ... cial-need/

This becomes a bit of a problem when you attempt to say no more immigrants, and the interviewer then asks "even NHS workers? How will you clear the backlog in two years as your manifesto promises?", as Farage was asked on Newsnight last night. Because of course the same person against immigration generally, is pro the foriegn NHS nurse almost overwhelmingly so.

‘When I ask loaded questions I get the answers I want’


It’s pointless asking what professions people want to give visas too when the vast majority of people getting a visa aren’t working! As for other targeted questions that elicit reactions, see audience reactions when they’re made aware of the scale.

Still my favourite sitcom!

"You should always send for cabinet ministers' MI5 files, if you enjoy a good laugh!"

[I like neeps]

IPSOS poll has Labour with a 256 and the Tories on 115.
Really hope this happens. Only total annihilation is good enough for Rishi and the Tory cronies.
I hope there are a few Potillo moments to savour.

I'm praying for Rees-Mogg and Truss.

[fishfoodie]

IPSOS poll has Labour with a 256 and the Tories on 115.
Really hope this happens. Only total annihilation is good enough for Rishi and the Tory cronies.
I hope there are a few Potillo moments to savour.

I'm praying for Rees-Mogg and Truss.

I think Truss's situation is complicated by there being a former-Tory running as an Independent, because she is such a fucking awful Constituency MP. There's a danger she'll get in because the rest of the vote will be spread over too many alternatives.

[Slick]

I think that immigration started out as a dead cat for the blonde cunt, to deflect from whatever other shite was happening that he needed to deflect from, & thru a succession of truly disgusting Home Secretaries, who all loved the attention, it didn't die, because it served them all to keep it bubbling away.

Then in comes the headboy, who it's been widely reported saw the whole exercise as stupid, & expensive, but was in the same place as the rest, & needed a distraction, & probably thought he might be able to get some kind of "win" from it with a flight to Rwanda, because he'd never get anything positive from any of the other issues like inflation, the NHS, an economy in recession, etc, etc.

So they elevated a non-issue to be a serious one, just so that they could "solve" it

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Okay, Non-Issue is too strong; I think immigration has become an issue across Europe in the last couple of decades, but I think the point I'm making is that when voters have ten or twelve issues laid out before them, & immigration is one, the vast majority don't pick it in the top three, & probably the top five, when they put it alongside healthcare, employment, crime etc etc.

It suits a particular cohort to make immigration an issue, & pretend that it is more of a cause for; their Nan not being able to get an appointment with her GP, when actually there are a dozen other Government policies over the last decade that had much more impact on that than a few dozen more immigrants in the area.

That’s not the case https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... for-voters

[sturginho]

Tories.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ndian-name

[fishfoodie]

I'm sorry fishy but a major part of the problem is people who are hardly impacted by huge amounts of immigration saying it's a non-issue, it's a massive issue for a lot of people. It has been an issue for a lot longer than when Boris was PM. Brexit was largely about immigration and look where that has got us. Pretending it's a non issue is really not clever.

Okay, Non-Issue is too strong; I think immigration has become an issue across Europe in the last couple of decades, but I think the point I'm making is that when voters have ten or twelve issues laid out before them, & immigration is one, the vast majority don't pick it in the top three, & probably the top five, when they put it alongside healthcare, employment, crime etc etc.

It suits a particular cohort to make immigration an issue, & pretend that it is more of a cause for; their Nan not being able to get an appointment with her GP, when actually there are a dozen other Government policies over the last decade that had much more impact on that than a few dozen more immigrants in the area.

That’s not the case https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... for-voters

And thus we circle back to my original point that immigration is now registering as a "issue", because the right-wing, tax dodging, brexit consequence avoiding scumbags who own the media, have spent the last two years pushing the lies that the UK is being over-run, & everything bad in peoples lives is down to some poor sod risking their life in a small boat, because that's how bleak their life is !

Tell me how those voters felt before Partygate & show me they felt the same way & I'll believe it's real & not bullshit.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Tories.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ndian-name

Also, is he saying the Tories are on Pakistan's side when it comes to Kashmir, or is he hoping s an individual MP to get away with a BS question in the house as amounting to something, or is he hoping for votes with the intention to ignore who supported him after the fact?

[Paddington Bear]

Okay, Non-Issue is too strong; I think immigration has become an issue across Europe in the last couple of decades, but I think the point I'm making is that when voters have ten or twelve issues laid out before them, & immigration is one, the vast majority don't pick it in the top three, & probably the top five, when they put it alongside healthcare, employment, crime etc etc.

It suits a particular cohort to make immigration an issue, & pretend that it is more of a cause for; their Nan not being able to get an appointment with her GP, when actually there are a dozen other Government policies over the last decade that had much more impact on that than a few dozen more immigrants in the area.

That’s not the case https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... for-voters

And thus we circle back to my original point that immigration is now registering as a "issue", because the right-wing, tax dodging, brexit consequence avoiding scumbags who own the media, have spent the last two years pushing the lies that the UK is being over-run, & everything bad in peoples lives is down to some poor sod risking their life in a small boat, because that's how bleak their life is !

Tell me how those voters felt before Partygate & show me they felt the same way & I'll believe it's real & not bullshit.

You have to engage with the unprecedented numbers since covid before pretending that it’s not real. Like it, dislike it, or ambivalent, you can’t walk around any British city without noticing that there has been a large and massive shift in the last few years.

[epwc]

I find it amazing that when we have shit floating down the Thames on a regular basis, tourists are dying due to extreme heat and there are wildfires all over the place that climate and environment are such a minor concern for the electorate:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/fil ... ices_1.pdf

[Tichtheid]

I find it amazing that when we have shit floating down the Thames on a regular basis, tourists are dying due to extreme heat and there are wildfires all over the place that climate and environment are such a minor concern for the electorate:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/fil ... ices_1.pdf

People are still in denial, even on here someone was laughing at the idea that we've just had the warmest May on record despite all the rain. What they failed to grasp is that nighttime temperatures are taken into consideration as well.

From the Met Office

The UK had its warmest May and meteorological spring on record according to provisional Met Office figures in what was also a wet and dull season for many. May 2024's average mean temperature of 13.1°C for the UK beat 2008's previous record figure of 12.1°C in a series which dates back to 1884

and from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The average global May temperature was 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 58.6 degrees F (14.8 degrees C), ranking as the warmest May in NOAA's 175-year global record. May 2024 marked the 12th-consecutive month of record-high temperatures for the planet.

[Raggs]

That’s not the case https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... for-voters

And thus we circle back to my original point that immigration is now registering as a "issue", because the right-wing, tax dodging, brexit consequence avoiding scumbags who own the media, have spent the last two years pushing the lies that the UK is being over-run, & everything bad in peoples lives is down to some poor sod risking their life in a small boat, because that's how bleak their life is !

Tell me how those voters felt before Partygate & show me they felt the same way & I'll believe it's real & not bullshit.

You have to engage with the unprecedented numbers since covid before pretending that it’s not real. Like it, dislike it, or ambivalent, you can’t walk around any British city without noticing that there has been a large and massive shift in the last few years.

You may notice a shift, but it doesn't mean there's been a huge one.

Europeans have been replaced by non Europeans. Typically easier to see.

Luton a few years ago when I was there in a shopping mall was brilliant. Tons of people you'd have pegged as "immigrants" with the broadest English accents. The first other Caucasians were Eastern Europeans and not speaking English.

On a different note altogether, getting on to almost 3 million new voters registered since the election was called. Over half in the 18-34 demographic. These are people that will almost certainly be voting, and almost certainly not for the Tories.

https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1803205323605397679

[Tichtheid]

Whilst I'm here, news outlets should be far more careful over how they report news. This morning one of the headlines on The Today Programme was the Tories saying Labour are planning to "plunder your savings the day after the election"

No government can steal people's savings. What they can do is raise the taxation level on interest savings but that only affects those who having an income from said savings. Your personal allowance is still in place and you currently have a savings allowance as well, which reduces by a pound for every pound over your allowance you earn on those savings, ie very rich people can maintain a luxurious lifestyle off the interest from savings and investments without touching the capital.

This wasn't mentioned.

[I like neeps]

I find it amazing that when we have shit floating down the Thames on a regular basis, tourists are dying due to extreme heat and there are wildfires all over the place that climate and environment are such a minor concern for the electorate:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/fil ... ices_1.pdf

The complete failure in sewage is more a story of government incompetence than environment I'd say.

Also, people just don't want to spend their time thinking of existential crises for which the mitigation of is living radically different lives with less choices and less "perks".

[Paddington Bear]

And thus we circle back to my original point that immigration is now registering as a "issue", because the right-wing, tax dodging, brexit consequence avoiding scumbags who own the media, have spent the last two years pushing the lies that the UK is being over-run, & everything bad in peoples lives is down to some poor sod risking their life in a small boat, because that's how bleak their life is !

Tell me how those voters felt before Partygate & show me they felt the same way & I'll believe it's real & not bullshit.

You have to engage with the unprecedented numbers since covid before pretending that it’s not real. Like it, dislike it, or ambivalent, you can’t walk around any British city without noticing that there has been a large and massive shift in the last few years.

You may notice a shift, but it doesn't mean there's been a huge one.

Europeans have been replaced by non Europeans. Typically easier to see.

Luton a few years ago when I was there in a shopping mall was brilliant. Tons of people you'd have pegged as "immigrants" with the broadest English accents. The first other Caucasians were Eastern Europeans and not speaking English.

On a different note altogether, getting on to almost 3 million new voters registered since the election was called. Over half in the 18-34 demographic. These are people that will almost certainly be voting, and almost certainly not for the Tories.

https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1803205323605397679

If it wasn’t real and was simply a shift, then net migration would be zero. It hasn’t been - it’s been well over 500,000. If you’re fine with this, don’t care or think it’s a good thing that’s not an issue. Don’t be disingenuous though and pretend either nothing has happened or nothing has changed. I am, shockingly, aware of the difference between a white person and a British citizen, a British Indian and an Indian etc.

[Hal Jordan]

Tories.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ndian-name

Also, is he saying the Tories are on Pakistan's side when it comes to Kashmir, or is he hoping s an individual MP to get away with a BS question in the house as amounting to something, or is he hoping for votes with the intention to ignore who supported him after the fact?

And ignoring the cozying up to the BJP by the Tory administration.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Tories.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... ndian-name

Also, is he saying the Tories are on Pakistan's side when it comes to Kashmir, or is he hoping s an individual MP to get away with a BS question in the house as amounting to something, or is he hoping for votes with the intention to ignore who supported him after the fact?

And ignoring the cozying up to the BJP by the Tory administration.

In part everyone needs to do that. India is now a massive force and it's getting bigger quickly. There are ways though and the BJP are a bit... iffy

[Paddington Bear]

Also, is he saying the Tories are on Pakistan's side when it comes to Kashmir, or is he hoping s an individual MP to get away with a BS question in the house as amounting to something, or is he hoping for votes with the intention to ignore who supported him after the fact?

And ignoring the cozying up to the BJP by the Tory administration.

In part everyone needs to do that. India is now a massive force and it's getting bigger quickly. There are ways though and the BJP are a bit... iffy

Indian nationals can vote if they live here as well, so it makes sense to court their votes based on issues back home. Whether this is a sustainable situation is another question

[Raggs]

You have to engage with the unprecedented numbers since covid before pretending that it’s not real. Like it, dislike it, or ambivalent, you can’t walk around any British city without noticing that there has been a large and massive shift in the last few years.

You may notice a shift, but it doesn't mean there's been a huge one.

Europeans have been replaced by non Europeans. Typically easier to see.

Luton a few years ago when I was there in a shopping mall was brilliant. Tons of people you'd have pegged as "immigrants" with the broadest English accents. The first other Caucasians were Eastern Europeans and not speaking English.

On a different note altogether, getting on to almost 3 million new voters registered since the election was called. Over half in the 18-34 demographic. These are people that will almost certainly be voting, and almost certainly not for the Tories.

https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1803205323605397679

If it wasn’t real and was simply a shift, then net migration would be zero. It hasn’t been - it’s been well over 500,000. If you’re fine with this, don’t care or think it’s a good thing that’s not an issue. Don’t be disingenuous though and pretend either nothing has happened or nothing has changed. I am, shockingly, aware of the difference between a white person and a British citizen, a British Indian and an Indian etc.

Well you'd previously said that the vast majority of people getting a visa aren't working (I'm ignoring tourist visas, I'm hoping you are doing the same). Which was wrong. Since the largest group of visas given out recently was work visas. Student visas were second place, and other types far below. Work visas obviously require work. Student visas are either paying high fees for tuition (helping education for UK students) and aren't able to get benefits so are either bringing money into the country paying for accommodation etc, or working too. Family visas are a tiny portion, and quite a few of those will include spouses, who I'd suspect often work as well (and also aren't able to claim public funds etc), all these visa types so far have to pay NHS surcharges, the vast majority of whom I very much doubt use as much as they pay out for this.

Net migration is up, fair enough. Population growth though, hasn't been this low since the 90s, and the average age was 3 years younger then. Considering the majority of migrants are younger than the population average, that's also no bad thing. Sure, it's just kicking the can further down the street, but there's no other realistic way of keeping the age profile down.

[Slick]

In happier news, I've managed to get all our main party candidates for where I live to agree to a hustings tonight on the beach to discuss water pollution.

I say "all", but the Conservative candidate didn't come back to us... but we have SNP, Labour, LD and Greens.

This was both great, inasmuch as it seems the message is getting through to political parties that sewage is now a big issue for the electorate, and predictably depressing from our incumbent MP - Tommy Sheppard, SNP.

Everyone kept to the subject at hand except good old Tommy who answered every question with a blast at Westminster and how good Independence would be, he didn't really engage once with the actual issue, and of course had his small group of followers who cheered his monologues and quite obviously weren't interested in what we were actually talking about. Scottish politics is so depressing.

[Raggs]

In happier news, I've managed to get all our main party candidates for where I live to agree to a hustings tonight on the beach to discuss water pollution.

I say "all", but the Conservative candidate didn't come back to us... but we have SNP, Labour, LD and Greens.

This was both great, inasmuch as it seems the message is getting through to political parties that sewage is now a big issue for the electorate, and predictably depressing from our incumbent MP - Tommy Sheppard, SNP.

Everyone kept to the subject at hand except good old Tommy who answered every question with a blast at Westminster and how good Independence would be, he didn't really engage once with the actual issue, and of course had his small group of followers who cheered his monologues and quite obviously weren't interested in what we were actually talking about. Scottish politics is so depressing.

Sewage is a massive issue for us too. We're a tourist island, with great beaches, and shit floating around in them. And we struggle to get off the island due to ridiculous prices. Current MP, who's been around for ages, is trying to boast about how he's planning to put in place a plan for a survey for an inspection of an investigation into the possibility of a check into the pricing structure.... Others are simply saying they want to go to the government and get them to prevent the dodgy corporate structure, which means all the profits go to businesses in other countries, and all the debts get loaded onto the user facing one.

[Paddington Bear]

In happier news, I've managed to get all our main party candidates for where I live to agree to a hustings tonight on the beach to discuss water pollution.

I say "all", but the Conservative candidate didn't come back to us... but we have SNP, Labour, LD and Greens.

This was both great, inasmuch as it seems the message is getting through to political parties that sewage is now a big issue for the electorate, and predictably depressing from our incumbent MP - Tommy Sheppard, SNP.

Everyone kept to the subject at hand except good old Tommy who answered every question with a blast at Westminster and how good Independence would be, he didn't really engage once with the actual issue, and of course had his small group of followers who cheered his monologues and quite obviously weren't interested in what we were actually talking about. Scottish politics is so depressing.

Fair play for organising this. The FT had a good article yesterday on the extent to which the Lib Dems are campaigning on water quality, does seem to be cutting through

[Tichtheid]

From the Graun

Tory government from 2010 to 2024 worse than any other in postwar history, says study by leading experts
As John Stevens reports in a story for the Daily Mirror today, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was complaining at a private Tory dinner earlier this year about the electorate’s “total failure to appreciate our superb record since 2010”.

But just how good is the Conservative party’s record in government over the past 14 years? Thankfully, we now have what is as close as we’re going to get to the authoritative, official verdict. Sir Anthony Seldon, arguably Britain’s leading contemporary political historian, is publishing a collection of essays written by prominent academics and other experts and they have analysed the record of the Conservative government from 2010 to 2024, looking at what it has achieved in every area of policy.

It is called The Conservative Effect 2010-2014: 14 Wasted Years? and it is published by Cambridge University Press.

And its conclusion is damning. It describes this as the worst government in postwar history.

Here is the conclusion of the final chapter, written by Seldon and his co-editor Tom Egerton, which sums up the overall verdict.

In comparison to the earlier four periods of one-party dominance post-1945, it is hard to see the years since 2010 as anything but disappointing. By 2024, Britain’s standing in the world was lower, the union was less strong, the country less equal, the population less well protected, growth more sluggish with the outlook poor, public services underperforming and largely unreformed, while respect for the institutions of the British state, including the civil service, judiciary and the police, was lower, as it was for external bodies, including the universities and the BBC, repeatedly attacked not least by government, ministers and right-wing commentators.
Do the unusually high number of external shocks to some extent let the governments off the hook? One above all – Brexit – was entirely of its own making and will be seen in history as the defining decision of these years. In 2024, the verdict on Brexit is almost entirely negative, with those who are suffering the most from it, as sceptics at the time predicted, the most vulnerable. The nation was certainly difficult to rule in these fourteen years, the Conservative party still more so. Longstanding problems certainly contributed to the difficulties the prime minister faced in providing clear strategic policy, including the 24-hour news cycle, the rise of social media and AI, and the frequency of scandals and crises. But it was the decision of the prime minister to choose to be distracted by the short term, rather than focusing on the strategic and the long term. The prime minister has agency: the incumbents often overlooked it.
Overall, it is hard to find a comparable period in history of the Conservatives which achieved so little, or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state.
In their concluding essay, Seldon and Egerton argue that poor leadership was one of the main problems with the 14-year administration. They say that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were “not up to the job” of being prime minister, and they have a low opinion of most of the other leading figures who have been in government. They say:

Very few cabinet ministers from 2010 to 2024 could hold a candle to the team who served under Clement Attlee – which included Ernest Bevin, Nye Bevan, Stafford Cripps, Hugh Gaitskell and Herbert Morrison. Or the teams who served under Wilson, Thatcher or Blair. Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Philip Hammond were rare examples of ministers of quality after 2010 …
A strong and capable prime minister is essential to governmental success in the British system. The earlier four periods saw two historic and landmark prime ministers, ie Churchill and Thatcher, with a succession of others who were capable if not agenda-changing PMs, including Macmillan, Wilson, Major and Blair. Since 2010, only Cameron came close to that level, with Sunak the best of the rest. Policy virtually stopped under May as Brexit consumed almost all the machine’s time, while serious policymaking ground to a halt under Johnson’s inept leadership, the worst in modern premiership, and the hapless Truss. Continuity of policy was not helped by each incoming prime minister despising their predecessor, with Truss’s admiration for Johnson the only exception. Thus they took next no time to understand what it was their predecessors were trying to do, and how to build on it rather than destroy it.
Seldon’s first book, published 40 years ago, was about Churchill’s postwar administration, and he has been editing similar collections of essays studying the record of administrations since Margaret Thatcher’s. He is a fair judge, and not given to making criticisms like this lightly.

The book is officially being published next week, and I’m quoting from a proof copy. In this version, the subtitle still has a question mark after 14 Wasted Years? Judging by the conclusion, that does not seem necessary.

[Paddington Bear]

I would fully agree with the idea of 14 wasted years.

Judging the current government against historical predecessors like that is a mug’s game. Most of the politicians who we now feel ooze gravitas and common sense were derided at the time. Major and Brown both good examples of this

[tabascoboy]

From the Graun

As John Stevens reports in a story for the Daily Mirror today, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was complaining at a private Tory dinner earlier this year about the electorate’s “total failure to appreciate our superb record since 2010”.

That says it all really, if you have to make a statement with that undertone of barely concealed contempt then the chances are that you are completely detached from reality