NPR

C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:59 pm Can't see the LDs winning but if they do then Boris is toast, yes he will try and hang on but he is facing a Summer of discontent.

It would be a big upset if the LDs lost at this stage - the political betting markets have the Tories as huge underdogs at 4-1 to win. Tories are almost certainly facing a by-election double bumming.

derriz wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:31 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:59 pm Can't see the LDs winning but if they do then Boris is toast, yes he will try and hang on but he is facing a Summer of discontent.

It would be a big upset if the LDs lost at this stage - the political betting markets have the Tories as huge underdogs at 4-1 to win. Tories are almost certainly facing a by-election double bumming.

I think the polls aren't as clear as the bookies, but that's a measure in itself; because this is a stone cold Tory win, if the Bumblecunt isn't the PM, but because he is, the bookies think people voting tactically, & tory voters staying home will make the difference.

Interestingly it is rumoured that the Durham Rozzers are going to make a statement soon after the election.
The Public sector pay awards are due and I think that some areasmay have awards a bit more than others in a bit of s divide and conquer move.
I've heard rumours that the NHS award will be about 5% and possibly a bit more and the others 3%.
Lots more increases for new starters and the lower paid as well.

Local Tories already throwing in the cards in Tiverton

Andrea Jenkyns talking undiluted horseshit on Sky.

Cons lose both

BREAKING: Lib Dems GAIN Tiverton and Honiton

Lib Dems: 22537
Conservatives: 16393
Labour: 1562

Majority: 6144

That’s extraordinary. The Conservatives had 60% of the vote at the last election. The Lib Dems have won it. And won it by a big, big margin.

BREAKING: Labour GAIN Wakefield

Lab: 13166
Con: 8241
Lib Dem: 508
Yorkshire: 1182
Reform: 513
UKIP: 124
NIP: 84

Maj: 4925

First Labour gain from the Conservatives in a by-election since 2012.

I will take full credit, this thread has obviously done the trick.

Oliver Dowden, Tory party chairman quits. PM out the country for another 8 days. This could get interesting

What lovely morning. Bye bye Oliver, you had more balls than I thought.
Cataclysmic results.

I really hope that this puts tactical voting on the cards.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:55 am

Oh please, if there is a dog, let that happen.

Watching that creep declare that he is answerable to the British public, thinking that he is in a very safe seat, is the very definition of smugness

Itv just showed an image of Boris dressed as Savile and with a Hitler moustache...
A bit harsh

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:47 am

were there no fridges available?

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:25 am

Raab has just been on the Today programme.
And performed even worse than usual!!!!

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:47 am

Yup. Classic spoiled, rich brat, arrogant Tory. Stormed out and refused to do the traditional concession speech.

It's ok lads, apparently the results are bad for labour:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/202 ... r-triumph/

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:02 am

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:55 am

Oh please, if there is a dog, let that happen.

Watching that creep declare that he is answerable to the British public, thinking that he is in a very safe seat, is the very definition of smugness

Would be almost as joyous as when Hamilton and Portillo were given the boot.

Ffs we're not going to be memed into calling Somerset celtic are we?

Horrendous results for the Tories which you'd assume will have a lot of people in safe seats wondering how long they can keep wanking on the back benches for. It's been said far too many times before to write him off but it does feel like Boris is circling the drain.

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:14 am Oliver Dowden, Tory party chairman quits. PM out the country for another 8 days. This could get interesting

Time for the Bumblecunt to look for asylum in Rwanda. I hear it’s a lovely place.

sturginho wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:45 am It's ok lads, apparently the results are bad for labour:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/202 ... r-triumph/

Seriously? Now this is getting into Comical Ali territory.
I for one hope Boris is PM before the next election.
How the feck can any credible journalist write such a hackneyed peice of shit.
I hope that the Tory Party actually believes stuff lile that btw.

sturginho wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:45 am It's ok lads, apparently the results are bad for labour:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/202 ... r-triumph/

Behjind a paywall
Try this
Oh and Tom Harris is the most one-eyed Tory fan-boy at the Torygraph!
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F ... umph%2F

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:14 am Oliver Dowden, Tory party chairman quits. PM out the country for another 8 days. This could get interesting

18 days is a long time in politics.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:08 am

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:14 am Oliver Dowden, Tory party chairman quits. PM out the country for another 8 days. This could get interesting

Time for the Bumblecunt to look for asylum in Rwanda. I hear it’s a lovely place.

Force the useless twat to go through "reprocessing" for entry into the UK, he can't have enough "skill points"

So Ben Elliott, the Russian stooge, is now the Con Chairman.

That won't last long or end well for him.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:38 am So Ben Elliott, the Russian stooge, is now the Con Chairman.

That won't last long or end well for him.

He was already co-chairman alongside Dowden
He is a prime example of everything that is wrong with the current Tory party

SaintK wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:54 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:45 am It's ok lads, apparently the results are bad for labour:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/202 ... r-triumph/

Behjind a paywall
Try this
Oh and Tom Harris is the most one-eyed Tory fan-boy at the Torygraph!
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F ... umph%2F

You can defeat the Torygraph's subscription requirement by reloading the page and pressing ESC very quickly afterwards.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:58 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:54 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:45 am It's ok lads, apparently the results are bad for labour:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/202 ... r-triumph/

Behjind a paywall
Try this
Oh and Tom Harris is the most one-eyed Tory fan-boy at the Torygraph!
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F ... umph%2F

You can defeat the Torygraph's subscription requirement by reloading the page and pressing ESC very quickly afterwards.

Thanks
Took me a couple of tries!

I think sir John Curtice's opinion that there is now an apparent willingness for Labour voters to vote LD where they can displace the Tory MP is where I am at.
Tribalism is going and voting to get the Tories out with a nudge and a wink to not try too hard from Labour in these areas will hopefully shape our political scenery for years to come.

I should imagine many see the Lab-LD pact as a potential way to defeat PR and push Cons to irrelevance.

Could work until ego’s get in the way.

This guy was a Tory pollster, this was his guide before the results.



The Tories with Johnson leading them have a structural weakness in the south of England. That already looked possible last year after the Chesham and Amersham by-election, but was put down to local issues (I wasn't totally convinced by that explanation, but whatever). Before the 2019 general election I said the Tories would lose votes to the Lib Dems, as the electoral coalition Cameron had built (went into coalition with the Lib Dems and then ate their vote by convincing those Lib Dem voters the Tories were a moderate party, something May tried to maintain) clearly didn't exist any more. I remember Seneca replied "those voters don't exist, who are they?", as if I was going to list the individual people currently voting Tory who would vote Lib Dem. My thinking was without those voters it's back to a 2010 result. Lib Dems had the biggest increase in vote share but didn't convert that into any seats, and the Tories won some seats in the north. I called it too early in 2019 but if the Tories go into an election with Johnson leading them the Lib Dems win 30+ seats, nearly all gains from the Tories.

It was always obvious what Johnson was, the outrageous lying and prorogation were clear indications he was capable of anything. The Tories are now a radical revolutionary party, just without any clue of how to transform society and much more focused on enriching themselves (they remind me of African nationalist parties). Johnson is more symptom than cause, the Tory voters saying they'll vote Tory again if Johnson goes are making a mistake, the ERG will still have the massively outsized influence it has now. It'll still be the same mess, just minus the charismatic leader.

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:29 am I think sir John Curtice's opinion that there is now an apparent willingness for Labour voters to vote LD where they can displace the Tory MP is where I am at.
Tribalism is going and voting to get the Tories out with a nudge and a wink to not try too hard from Labour in these areas will hopefully shape our political scenery for years to come.

Labour is the closest in our constituency.

shaggy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:34 am I should imagine many see the Lab-LD pact as a potential way to defeat PR and push Cons to irrelevance.

Could work until ego’s get in the way.

No way will there be a formal pact tbh. The way the vote for Labour directly transfered to the LDs in Tiverton will be worrying.
I doubt even Tory voters are scared of Starmer in a way they were of Corbyn.
The hatred of Boris is getting more tangible by the day. Every Minister who stays loyal and defends his integrity is laughed and and when in punlic now, Boris is booed.

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:46 am

shaggy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:34 am I should imagine many see the Lab-LD pact as a potential way to defeat PR and push Cons to irrelevance.

Could work until ego’s get in the way.

No way will there be a formal pact tbh. The way the vote for Labour directly transfered to the LDs in Tiverton will be worrying.
I doubt even Tory voters are scared of Starmer in a way they were of Corbyn.
The hatred of Boris is getting more tangible by the day. Every Minister who stays loyal and defends his integrity is laughed and and when in punlic now, Boris is booed.

Keep calling it mid term blues. Boris will have worse to come when the Parliamentary Stands Committee starts their investigation.

It's gonna be a rocky road.

From post earlier, actual swing was 12.7


Actual swing 29.6%

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:46 am

shaggy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:34 am I should imagine many see the Lab-LD pact as a potential way to defeat PR and push Cons to irrelevance.

Could work until ego’s get in the way.

No way will there be a formal pact tbh. The way the vote for Labour directly transfered to the LDs in Tiverton will be worrying.
I doubt even Tory voters are scared of Starmer in a way they were of Corbyn.
The hatred of Boris is getting more tangible by the day. Every Minister who stays loyal and defends his integrity is laughed and and when in punlic now, Boris is booed.

The Lib Dem vote always rises when the Labour leader is seen as moderate and acceptable to enough Tory voters. Because some Tory voters will vote Lib Dem and not be bothered if that hands Labour power. You can take that to the bank.

That calculation changes if/when a Labour-Lib Dem coalition happens. I thought the way the Lib Dems structured their coalition after 2010 was poor, their strength merited about 2 cabinet ministries where they could implement their full manifesto in those areas, they didn't have enough strength to carry equal responsibility for everything a mainly Tory government did. I now think coalition government just doesn't work in a FPTP system, the weaker party will be punished even if the government is stable. Even a successful coalition with Labour will likely mean the Lib Dems lose all their Labour leaning voters to Labour, and their Tory leaning voters to the Tories. The Lib Dems would be foolish to go into another coalition. FPTP means the largest party on one side and everyone else shouting at them on the other side.

Ladies and gentlemen, a Vice-Chair of the 1922 Committee from a few days ago. Even they can't seem to believe the continuing shitshow