So, coronavirus...

[tc27]

I wasn't aware of the PM making derogatory remarks about the vaccine rollout in Scotland? Using UK resources to help in the most geographically challenging part on the country seems entirely fair but the way some people have taken it as an implied criticism is just weird. Anyway I cant recall a senior UK government overtly criticising the SG or any UK special advisors making the kind of prerogative remarks Sridhar has.

[Rinkals]

Comments?

https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials ... cCAbHMFu2U

As an early Linux adopter since the early nineties, Bill Gates is not my favourite role model, but I tend to feel that his Foundation does do a lot of good work, and he is often unfairly criticized.

However, as the article says, his own fortune is built on IP rights which may make him reluctant to support opening up of patents relating to covid vaccines and treatment.

If Canada has procured 6 times the doses it needs for its population, the UK and the US have 4 times and the EU and Australia have double what they need for their population, then it really doesn't make sense to withhold doses from poorer countries.

If the poorer Countries remain unvaccinated, then there is the danger that the virus will continue to be propagated, breeding new variants to reinfect the richer nations with resistant strains.

[Saint]

Comments?

https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials ... cCAbHMFu2U

As an early Linux adopter since the early nineties, Bill Gates is not my favourite role model, but I tend to feel that his Foundation does do a lot of good work, and he is often unfairly criticized.

However, as the article says, his own fortune is built on IP rights which may make him reluctant to support opening up of patents relating to covid vaccines and treatment.

If Canada has procured 6 times the doses it needs for its population, the UK and the US have 4 times and the EU and Australia have double what they need for their population, then it really doesn't make sense to withhold doses from poorer countries.

If the poorer Countries remain unvaccinated, then there is the danger that the virus will continue to be propagated, breeding new variants to reinfect the richer nations with resistant strains.

They're not his IP rights to open up, and the article is massively overplaying his influence in this regard I think. As for the rest of it, I think that we've discussed the rest of this ad infionitum already. Right now no-one is witholding any vaccine from anyone - there just aren't the supplies to go round so far.

[Rinkals]

Comments?

https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials ... cCAbHMFu2U

As an early Linux adopter since the early nineties, Bill Gates is not my favourite role model, but I tend to feel that his Foundation does do a lot of good work, and he is often unfairly criticized.

However, as the article says, his own fortune is built on IP rights which may make him reluctant to support opening up of patents relating to covid vaccines and treatment.

If Canada has procured 6 times the doses it needs for its population, the UK and the US have 4 times and the EU and Australia have double what they need for their population, then it really doesn't make sense to withhold doses from poorer countries.

If the poorer Countries remain unvaccinated, then there is the danger that the virus will continue to be propagated, breeding new variants to reinfect the richer nations with resistant strains.

They're not his IP rights to open up, and the article is massively overplaying his influence in this regard I think. As for the rest of it, I think that we've discussed the rest of this ad infionitum already. Right now no-one is witholding any vaccine from anyone - there just aren't the supplies to go round so far.

As I see it, it's about allowing other countries to manufacture the vaccine in order to make it more affordable and to increase supply.

I can't help but feel that Gates' standing would significantly improve the chances of this being allowed, were he to support it.

[tabascoboy]

I'd kind of view the Omicalculator estimates as "at the latest" with no significant changes or disruption to availability. The government target is just that, not a guarantee though.

[tc27]

I'd kind of view the Omicalculator estimates as "at the latest" with no significant changes or disruption to availability. The government target is just that, not a guarantee though.

Works both ways - if capacity, production and take up are better than expected the government can exceed its target as its just done.

[tc27]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56059960

UK variant found in community (albeit only 3 cases) in NZ.

This virus really is very slippery...if NZ cant keep it out then you have to wonder if anyone's border controls will work.

[Paddington Bear]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56059960

UK variant found in community (albeit only 3 cases) in NZ.

This virus really is very slippery...if NZ cant keep it out then you have to wonder if anyone's border controls will work.

This is the problem with elimination strategies. We've seen this closer to home on Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Bloody difficult to fully wall yourself off from the world

[fishfoodie]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56059960

UK variant found in community (albeit only 3 cases) in NZ.

This virus really is very slippery...if NZ cant keep it out then you have to wonder if anyone's border controls will work.

This is the problem with elimination strategies. We've seen this closer to home on Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Bloody difficult to fully wall yourself off from the world

If North Korea can't block the virus: I don't see how any country that isn't ringed with minefields can expect to.

[SaintK]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56059960

UK variant found in community (albeit only 3 cases) in NZ.

This virus really is very slippery...if NZ cant keep it out then you have to wonder if anyone's border controls will work.

This is the problem with elimination strategies. We've seen this closer to home on Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Bloody difficult to fully wall yourself off from the world

Particularly if you do it half-cock like the UK government have

[Sandstorm]

There is only 1 way!

[Saint]

Comments?

https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials ... cCAbHMFu2U

As an early Linux adopter since the early nineties, Bill Gates is not my favourite role model, but I tend to feel that his Foundation does do a lot of good work, and he is often unfairly criticized.

However, as the article says, his own fortune is built on IP rights which may make him reluctant to support opening up of patents relating to covid vaccines and treatment.

If Canada has procured 6 times the doses it needs for its population, the UK and the US have 4 times and the EU and Australia have double what they need for their population, then it really doesn't make sense to withhold doses from poorer countries.

If the poorer Countries remain unvaccinated, then there is the danger that the virus will continue to be propagated, breeding new variants to reinfect the richer nations with resistant strains.

They're not his IP rights to open up, and the article is massively overplaying his influence in this regard I think. As for the rest of it, I think that we've discussed the rest of this ad infionitum already. Right now no-one is witholding any vaccine from anyone - there just aren't the supplies to go round so far.

As I see it, it's about allowing other countries to manufacture the vaccine in order to make it more affordable and to increase supply.

I can't help but feel that Gates' standing would significantly improve the chances of this being allowed, were he to support it.

I'm deeply sceptical of idea that the mRNA vaccines are "simpler to manufacture". The supply chains for Pfizer and Moderna are both very complex, with lots of different manufacturing stages - it's not just one single facility with raw material going in and finished vaccine coming out. However, even if that were the case, the challenge with those types of vaccines remains the delivery logistics. They're simply not going to be the answer for immunising the world, but as the article itself notes, the AZ type vaccines (which probably are) require specialist infrastructure. More is coming on stream, but the real answer is to get more vaccines of all sorts of types onboard so that we can use all the different types of manufacturing capacity out there. At that point the overordering becomes a mott point, as anything spare will either be released for sale or more likely (at least in the case of the UK) directed at COVAX

[fishfoodie]

There is only 1 way!

Stitch the bumblecunts mouth shut ?

I like your thinking !

[Sandstorm]

There is only 1 way!

Stitch the bumblecunts mouth shut ?

I like your thinking !

And Handincock

[tc27]

Omnicalculator is dealing with 2nd doses as well. Your tweet by it's own admission isn't

1. Second doses wont be a real issue until the second half of March
2. According to the leaked SG document the first two weeks of March are going to see a huge amount of vaccines supplied (approx. 460k per week in Scotland which extrapolates to about 4.7 million in England)
3. I have used that tool before for my parents and it was giving a likely time sometime in April - both had a jab last week,

Plus would add the Times is reporting everyone over 50 having at least one shot by March 24 is the governments internal target.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covi ... -kbqd233qn

• Everyone above 50 is set to be vaccinated by March 24, before the need to give second doses slows down the pace of the jabs, analysis by The Times shows.

Omnicalculator is very simply extrapolating current average dosing rate and factoring in second doses. It;s being very explicit in what it does. If you want to change the supply rate, the take-up, whatever, then you can do so to produce the figures that you want


So, using the standard numbers for me, I get the following:

Based on your profile, you are not in any priority group. Given an uptake of 70.6%, there are between 16,843,775 and 28,043,102 people in front of you in the queue for a first dose of COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 3,056,416 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/05/2021 and 24/06/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 27/07/2021 and 16/09/2021.

If I then go and up the vaxination rate to 5 million a week I get this:

Based on your profile, you are not in any priority group. Given an uptake of 70.6%, there are between 16,843,775 and 28,043,102 people in front of you in the queue for a first dose of COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 5,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/04/2021 and 06/05/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 27/06/2021 and 29/07/2021.

Thats fair enough - its probably best to resist an optimism bias but I think the obvious conclusion is that the government expects to significantly increase the vaccination rate before the end of March.

[Paddington Bear]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56059960

UK variant found in community (albeit only 3 cases) in NZ.

This virus really is very slippery...if NZ cant keep it out then you have to wonder if anyone's border controls will work.

This is the problem with elimination strategies. We've seen this closer to home on Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Bloody difficult to fully wall yourself off from the world

If North Korea can't block the virus: I don't see how any country that isn't ringed with minefields can expect to.

Yeah exactly. Strikes me that long term the only method is mass vaccination and continued vaccination for an unspecified period of time like we currently do for flu jabs, but on an extended and more mandatory level.

[Sandstorm]

Yeah exactly. Strikes me that long term the only method is mass vaccination and continued vaccination for an unspecified period of time like we currently do for flu jabs, but on an extended and more mandatory level.

I think we're all resigned to that long-term strategy already. Or until the first Facebook report about Covid vaccine leading to dementia in a 45 year old....

[fishfoodie]

Yeah exactly. Strikes me that long term the only method is mass vaccination and continued vaccination for an unspecified period of time like we currently do for flu jabs, but on an extended and more mandatory level.

I think we're all resigned to that long-term strategy already. Or until the first Facebook report about Covid vaccine leading to dementia in a 45 year old....

Yeah, I think the West at least will now start to have temperature screening in airports, & there'll be some form of secure vaccine passport available, & if you opt in, you get a faster passage thru borders; otherwise you'd have to have a negative test, & install a tracking app etc.

Hopefully it leads to people taking vaccines seriously again; & the 1st world realising that they can't build walls high enough to keep what happens in the rest of the world out.

[Saint]

1. Second doses wont be a real issue until the second half of March
2. According to the leaked SG document the first two weeks of March are going to see a huge amount of vaccines supplied (approx. 460k per week in Scotland which extrapolates to about 4.7 million in England)
3. I have used that tool before for my parents and it was giving a likely time sometime in April - both had a jab last week,

Plus would add the Times is reporting everyone over 50 having at least one shot by March 24 is the governments internal target.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covi ... -kbqd233qn

Omnicalculator is very simply extrapolating current average dosing rate and factoring in second doses. It;s being very explicit in what it does. If you want to change the supply rate, the take-up, whatever, then you can do so to produce the figures that you want


So, using the standard numbers for me, I get the following:

Based on your profile, you are not in any priority group. Given an uptake of 70.6%, there are between 16,843,775 and 28,043,102 people in front of you in the queue for a first dose of COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 3,056,416 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/05/2021 and 24/06/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 27/07/2021 and 16/09/2021.

If I then go and up the vaxination rate to 5 million a week I get this:

Based on your profile, you are not in any priority group. Given an uptake of 70.6%, there are between 16,843,775 and 28,043,102 people in front of you in the queue for a first dose of COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 5,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/04/2021 and 06/05/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 27/06/2021 and 29/07/2021.

Thats fair enough - its probably best to resist an optimism bias but I think the obvious conclusion is that the government expects to significantly increase the vaccination rate before the end of March.

Even the current rate has put us a long way ahead of the initial government plan

[Saint]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

[Raggs]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

That's an insanely different way to run trials. Absolutely easier to "trust" the AZ results in those circumstances.

[Ovals]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Would be interesting to know what the % of symptomatic cases were for AZ, so we could see a direct comparison with the others. I was under the impression that asymptomatic cases were quite a decent % of the total

[Ovals]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Saint - do you have a link for the above information please.

Edit, no matter found it now.

[dpedin]

This is the problem with elimination strategies. We've seen this closer to home on Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Bloody difficult to fully wall yourself off from the world

If North Korea can't block the virus: I don't see how any country that isn't ringed with minefields can expect to.

Yeah exactly. Strikes me that long term the only method is mass vaccination and continued vaccination for an unspecified period of time like we currently do for flu jabs, but on an extended and more mandatory level.

We need to differentiate between elimination and eradication strategies. Elimination strategy is about trying to minimise and stop community transmission in a particular place or country to zero and by any reckoning NZ has been pretty successful. If they are finding 3 cases and are taking the necessary steps then this is unfortunate but is good demonstration of how their strategy works in practice and they will in all likelihood stop onward community transmission of the virus they have identified. Lets not say their elimination strategy has failed because of 3 cases, for me this is a sign its working, better than our 'suppression strategy' with a current 12,500 cases as a 7 day average! How many days have they been in national lockdown since the virus appeared compared to the UK? How many deaths have they had? How is their economy doing? Vaccination will obviously help us all move towards an 'elimination strategy', its just a shame its taken the UK 12 months to work this out and even then we are making a feck up of border controls.

Eradication of the virus, no cases of the virus worldwide, is only going to be achieved through vaccination and is extremely unlikely, despite all the incredible work done on vaccines etc we have only eradicated smallpox.

[tabascoboy]

Another variant found

Scientists have identified another new variant of coronavirus in the UK with some potentially troubling mutations.

B.1.525 appears similar to the South African variant which prompted door-to-door tests in areas where it has been found.

Researchers from Edinburgh University have found 33 cases so far in samples dating back to December.

It has been seen in other countries too, including Denmark, Nigeria and the US.

UK experts are studying it to understand what risk it poses.

It is too soon to say if it should be added to the UK's list of "variants of concern" and whether mass testing for it should happen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56082573

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Would be interesting to know what the % of symptomatic cases were for AZ, so we could see a direct comparison with the others. I was under the impression that asymptomatic cases were quite a decent % of the total

I believe that the asymptomatic covid testing was only for the UK part of the AZ trial but apart from that, yes, that's where the 67% reduction in transmission data comes from.

AZ is also only one of a couple of vaccines with any meaningful testing against the SA variant - Novavax & J&J have also been tested - there's a large drop off in efficacy. There's no data outside of lab tests for Pfizer & Moderna currently.

The best data will come from countries that a) have a large vaccine rollout of multiple vaccine types and b) do plenty of sequencing. That's a very short list.

[Saint]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Saint - do you have a link for the above information please.

I don't have the actual numbers, no. They're buried in the full report published in the Lancet for AZ, not sure where you would see it for Moderna/Pfizer

[Saint]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Would be interesting to know what the % of symptomatic cases were for AZ, so we could see a direct comparison with the others. I was under the impression that asymptomatic cases were quite a decent % of the total

I believe that the asymptomatic covid testing was only for the UK part of the AZ trial but apart from that, yes, that's where the 67% reduction in transmission data comes from.

AZ is also only one of a couple of vaccines with any meaningful testing against the SA variant - Novavax & J&J have also been tested - there's a large drop off in efficacy. There's no data outside of lab tests for Pfizer & Moderna currently.

The best data will come from countries that a) have a large vaccine rollout of multiple vaccine types and b) do plenty of sequencing. That's a very short list.

Short list of 1

[Ovals]

Interesting stuff on vaccination trial data that I hadn't been aware of before.

As we know, the Pfizer/Moderna trials were run significantly differently to the AZ in all sorts of ways, but very specifically in how they measured efficacy.

Both Pfizer and Moderna did the same double blind trial as AZ - but they only tested for Covid in volunteers who developed symptoms. So their report of 95% efficacy is based purely on symptomatic patients. AZ was significantly different - they swabbed EVEYONE in the trial groups on a regular basis. So their reported rate of between 66% and 90% is based on people who developed asymptomatic Covid as well - for which there is absolutely zero data from Pfizer and Moderna.

That kind of difference goes a long way towards explaining why the MHRA, who really understood what was going on, were happy to approve - and the dangers of these types of complex data sets being reported by an uneducated press to an uneducated population

Saint - do you have a link for the above information please.

I don't have the actual numbers, no. They're buried in the full report published in the Lancet for AZ, not sure where you would see it for Moderna/Pfizer

It's ok - it makes reference to the methods in here. https://www.vox.com/21575420/oxford-mod ... ca-results

[Saint]

282k doses yesterday. Low

[Ovals]

I've just had a letter telling me to shield until 31st March

Suggests that they are, probably, not expecting much relaxation until April.

[Saint]

I've just had a letter telling me to shield until 31st March

Suggests that they are, probably, not expecting much relaxation until April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56086965

[Ovals]

I've just had a letter telling me to shield until 31st March

Suggests that they are, probably, not expecting much relaxation until April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56086965

Yeah, I saw that. But I was in the original shielding group. They'd originally said to shield until Feb 21 - albeit we knew that would be extended unless there was a miracle.

I had my Vax 7 days ago, so will have decent immunity by month end. Mrs Ovals had hers today, so not far behind. I'll stick to the advice though, by and large. It's not as if it is much different to the Lockdown or tier 4 restrictions.

My main problem atm is Kidney infections - making me feel pretty shit.

[Saint]

I've just had a letter telling me to shield until 31st March

Suggests that they are, probably, not expecting much relaxation until April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56086965

Yeah, I saw that. But I was in the original shielding group. They'd originally said to shield until Feb 21 - albeit we knew that would be extended unless there was a miracle.

I had my Vax 7 days ago, so will have decent immunity by month end. Mrs Ovals had hers today, so not far behind. I'll stick to the advice though, by and large. It's not as if it is much different to the Lockdown or tier 4 restrictions.

My main problem atm is Kidney infections - making me feel pretty shit.

Yeah, shielding vs Tier 4 isn't much different, especially if you have helpful neighbours and/or local family. Think you're right about the timetabling though

[Raggs]

Apt for both vaccines and masks.

[Gumboot]

Two new community cases in Auckland reported today, both linked to Papatoetoe High School.

There's an announcement on the alert levels due at 4:30pm, but this news makes it increasingly unlikely the city's coming out of Level 3 yet.

[FalseBayFC]

Comments?

https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials ... cCAbHMFu2U

As an early Linux adopter since the early nineties, Bill Gates is not my favourite role model, but I tend to feel that his Foundation does do a lot of good work, and he is often unfairly criticized.

However, as the article says, his own fortune is built on IP rights which may make him reluctant to support opening up of patents relating to covid vaccines and treatment.

If Canada has procured 6 times the doses it needs for its population, the UK and the US have 4 times and the EU and Australia have double what they need for their population, then it really doesn't make sense to withhold doses from poorer countries.

If the poorer Countries remain unvaccinated, then there is the danger that the virus will continue to be propagated, breeding new variants to reinfect the richer nations with resistant strains.

They're not his IP rights to open up, and the article is massively overplaying his influence in this regard I think. As for the rest of it, I think that we've discussed the rest of this ad infionitum already. Right now no-one is witholding any vaccine from anyone - there just aren't the supplies to go round so far.

As I see it, it's about allowing other countries to manufacture the vaccine in order to make it more affordable and to increase supply.

I can't help but feel that Gates' standing would significantly improve the chances of this being allowed, were he to support it.

I agree. We can't afford not to. Its clearly not a short term process to build up manufacturing capacity but the globalization model doesn't work here.

Unfortunately the rich countries are going to have to foot the bill here. But they are the ones that stand to lose the most. The next pandemic is coming and we'll have to be ready.

Also interesting article about anti-microbial resistance. This could make Covid look like the common cold.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ntibiotics

[tc27]

Going back to the vaccine discussion yesterday - analysis from the FT:

[Saint]

Going back to the vaccine discussion yesterday - analysis from the FT:

Which pretty much matches the online calculator.

The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.

[Ovals]

Going back to the vaccine discussion yesterday - analysis from the FT:

Which pretty much matches the online calculator.

The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.

Possibly earlier if the single dose, effectively, prevents very serious disease. 1-9 should all have one dose by the end of March, so have protection by end April. I'd like to see may as the 'target' for the uk getting back to a relatively normal way of life - as long as the data supports it.