NPR

Saint wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:38 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:08 pm If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

Saint wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:38 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:08 pm If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm

Calculon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 pm That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Calculon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:15 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm

Calculon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 pm That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:07 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:55 pm

BnM wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:49 pm Had the AstraZeneca yesterday. Got the side effects, injection arm achy, ran hot a few hours ago now cold and weirdly my butt muscles ache. I might have blamed the bed but it started before bed last night. I'm also very tired.

Men don't just wear a shirt to it, put a t-shirt underneath or plan your clothes to make it easier. Way too many bare torso's on view, you have no real privacy.

Jeez I am disappointed adults need to be told this

Worse than Portobello Beach?

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:44 pm

Calculon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:15 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:25 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:38 pm

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:08 pm If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:44 pm

Calculon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:15 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:15 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:25 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:38 pm

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 pm I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 pm I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 pm I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:51 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 pm I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:05 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:51 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:22 pm I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Lobby wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:45 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:05 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:51 pm

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:00 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:34 pm For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:39 pm Covaxin - India's "home-grown" Covid vaccine - reports 80% efficacy from Phase III completed results. It;s already being deployed in India with an Emergency use authorisation based on interim Phase III results

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:50 pm

Lobby wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:45 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:05 pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

True - and when people saw Dominic take a drive (as an example) at least some decided to stop consenting.

It's impossible to quantify the effect that that escapade hade, but it definitely had some sort of impact

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:53 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:15 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:25 pm

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:30 pm Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:25 pm

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:53 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:15 am

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

C T wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:39 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:30 pm Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

It really is impressive how far people will go to make it not the governments fault. It's worrying how far ingrained people become in "their" party. Obviously of course there is the other side to this, people trying to blame the government for everything.

But the excuses people are finding. I'm confident that there are other contributing factors other than just the far too slow or far too fast (depending on if going into or coming out of lockdown) incompetence shown by our leaders... amongst other things they've mishandled. But it is at very least a large chunk of the problem.

If someone is so far into being a tory that they can't see this then they should grab a red cap and join a rally in America.

I also find the desperate clutching at straws of the successful vaccine roll out hard to comprehend. It is going well, and a big well done to everyone involved. But taking that success as a glowing example of how great the Tories are doing and ignoring everything else, no point engaging with people that far gone.

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:22 pm

C T wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:39 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:30 pm Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

It really is impressive how far people will go to make it not the governments fault. It's worrying how far ingrained people become in "their" party. Obviously of course there is the other side to this, people trying to blame the government for everything.

But the excuses people are finding. I'm confident that there are other contributing factors other than just the far too slow or far too fast (depending on if going into or coming out of lockdown) incompetence shown by our leaders... amongst other things they've mishandled. But it is at very least a large chunk of the problem.

If someone is so far into being a tory that they can't see this then they should grab a red cap and join a rally in America.

I also find the desperate clutching at straws of the successful vaccine roll out hard to comprehend. It is going well, and a big well done to everyone involved. But taking that success as a glowing example of how great the Tories are doing and ignoring everything else, no point engaging with people that far gone.

There is virtually no-one on this thread who has done anything but criticise the government at various stages for how they've handled things (even Bimbo has criticised them, albeit from a very different standpoint). But there are obviously MANY different factors involved when you start looking at how well any single government has performed in terms of response to the pandemic (putting Vaccine dev and rollout to one side completely). To try and pretend that Covid impacts every country completely equally without government intervention is fallacy number one - we know with absolute certainty that that is not the case, but we also know that we are struggling to quantify both the levels of difference and exactly what the key factors are.

As for the OBR - all the oBR review is stating absolute facts. What has happened. It's manking no judgement as to fault, how we got here or anything like that. It's not assigning blame. That's not their job and to try and pretend that that's what they're doing there is fairly dumb

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:01 pm Let’s not let this thread go the way of PR, folks. Keep it civil please.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:34 pm For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:18 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:25 pm

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:53 pm

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

Well, when you've stopped being obnoxious and rude - maybe you can explain what you've taken exception to. I appreciate that the evidence doesn't support that countries with higher ages, etc., have higher death rates - but I find it perplexing that that is the case, given what we know about factors that affect death rates. Why you seem to get on your high horse about it, I can't imagine. Especially when there appears to be no evidence to actually say what causes the variability in death rates between countries. Which leaves the cause as, rather, an unknown quantity.

You have suggested that the cause is around the Public Health systems - but that seems entirely anecdotal - something that you complained about others for using.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75848-2 From Nov and heavy going - but an interesting read. They seem a bit perplexed as well.

Rinkals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:18 am

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:18 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:25 pm

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

Well, when you've stopped being obnoxious and rude - maybe you can explain what you've taken exception to. I appreciate that the evidence doesn't support that countries with higher ages, etc., have higher death rates - but I find it perplexing that that is the case, given what we know about factors that affect death rates. Why you seem to get on your high horse about it, I can't imagine. Especially when there appears to be no evidence to actually say what causes the variability in death rates between countries. Which leaves the cause as, rather, an unknown quantity.

You have suggested that the cause is around the Public Health systems - but that seems entirely anecdotal - something that you complained about others for using.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75848-2 From Nov and heavy going - but an interesting read. They seem a bit perplexed as well.

I think he thought you were being sarcastic.

I agree that the behaviour of the virus doesn't follow logic.

Which makes tackling it all the more problematic.

However, there's another aspect to this, which is that the inconsistencies of this behaviour feeds daft conspiracy theories and barmy snake-oil cures.