So, coronavirus...

[JPNZ]

I only realised this morning after PM Jacinda spoke on the news, that once all NZ population is vaccinated with both shots that to keep that immunity up every following 12 months everyone needs to get another shot(s). This will potentially be in place for the next 6-7 years.

I seriously thought it was two shots of vaccine and you were done.

[Tichtheid]

The US has generally had less deaths per head than most European countries, many states have had far less stringent lock-downs and their economy has suffered far less and is now bouncing back strongly (plus they are all getting a cash boost from the US government). Ohh and they are vaccinating quicker than anyone except for the UK.

At some point we are going to have to ask why Europe suffered the worst out of all the all the worlds developed areas despite the far greater social welfare systems and socialized health care than most. It may not be comfortable for us.

I don't know if this will be shown to be a factor, but the US has a population density of 36 people per sqr km, compared to the EU's 112. The median age in the US is 38.3 years, in the EU it's 43.7.

[Tichtheid]

Gruesome chart alert, deaths per million population, but with the caveat that different methodologies are used across the world. I don't think we'll get a proper handle on this for a long time

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/

[Tichtheid]

I only realised this morning after PM Jacinda spoke on the news, that once all NZ population is vaccinated with both shots that to keep that immunity up every following 12 months everyone needs to get another shot(s). This will potentially be in place for the next 6-7 years.

I seriously thought it was two shots of vaccine and you were done.

It's a small price to pay, though, isn't it, all things considered?

NZ has done really well, your PM sets a high bar.

[shaggy]

The US has generally had less deaths per head than most European countries, many states have had far less stringent lock-downs and their economy has suffered far less and is now bouncing back strongly (plus they are all getting a cash boost from the US government). Ohh and they are vaccinating quicker than anyone except for the UK.

At some point we are going to have to ask why Europe suffered the worst out of all the all the worlds developed areas despite the far greater social welfare systems and socialized health care than most. It may not be comfortable for us.

I don't know if this will be shown to be a factor, but the US has a population density of 36 people per sqr km, compared to the EU's 112. The median age in the US is 38.3 years, in the EU it's 43.7.

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

[Ovals]

Ovals,

In no way am I defending the States handling of the virus. All I am doing is saying that many of the private schools, not the government controlled schools, have been back in class for months without disaster.

There are those who would say that 500,000 official deaths; & deity only knows how man, "extra" deaths; as well as the fact that the US death rate, & case rate still hasn't plateaued; as somewhat of a disaster.

It's very difficult to pick out the wood from the trees in the where the US deaths & cases are coming from.

I see that the worldometer site has the UK death rate at even worse than USA (if you can believe their figures) but I’m not trying to make points. All I’m saying is that going back to school looks to be ok. Make of that what you will.

In the UK's case we have the perfect Covid storm. High average age, high population density, open borders, lots of travelling, overweight population, a more highly transmissibe dominant Covid strain and a Government that was slow to act. Given the death rates in the USA, I really wouldn't be looking at the States for an example of how to handle Covid, including the return of kids to schools.

[Insane_Homer]

[Biffer]

The US has generally had less deaths per head than most European countries, many states have had far less stringent lock-downs and their economy has suffered far less and is now bouncing back strongly (plus they are all getting a cash boost from the US government). Ohh and they are vaccinating quicker than anyone except for the UK.

At some point we are going to have to ask why Europe suffered the worst out of all the all the worlds developed areas despite the far greater social welfare systems and socialized health care than most. It may not be comfortable for us.

I don't know if this will be shown to be a factor, but the US has a population density of 36 people per sqr km, compared to the EU's 112. The median age in the US is 38.3 years, in the EU it's 43.7.

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

That’s not generally what people have been saying. They’ve been pointing out that you can’t just assign differences to obesity, demography or population density. These things will all have an influence, but the PH policy that’s put in place alongside them is also very important. Generally it’s been in response to someone claiming it’s all down to one or two factors.

For what it’s worth I think cultural differences, age demographics and public health policy will probably be the big things that have an effect on rates.

[Openside]

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.ft.com/content/9948d23a-70f ... 7c9f8eb956

England’s £23bn test and trace programme condemned by MPs

England’s test and trace programme failed to make a “measurable difference” to the spread of the pandemic despite an outlay of £23bn, an “unimaginable” level of expenditure, a parliamentary spending watchdog has claimed.

Another world beater

[tc27]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

I have said my piece on this - a really bizarre claim.

[Lobby]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

I have said my piece on this - a really bizarre claim.

Dpedin won't be satisfied until we have all signed affidavits confirming that we agree that Boris ("the Bumblecunt") is personally and solely responsible for every single death in the UK.

[SaintK]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

I have said my piece on this - a really bizarre claim.

Dpedin won't be satisfied until we have all signed affidavits confirming that we agree that Boris ("the Bumblecunt") is personally and solely responsible for every single death in the UK.

Nah, not all of them.

[TheNatalShark]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

Now this is an interestingly ironic development, although obviously negotiations would have been more or less completed before the Aus export ban, and production will only seem to come online at a point where it will likely not be at any risk of forming part of Italy's current plans and potential confiscation.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 0.ece/amp/

Getting more positive by the day that the developing world won't have to wait until late 2022 before seeing meaningful levels of jabs available.

[Saint]

https://www.ft.com/content/9948d23a-70f ... 7c9f8eb956

England’s £23bn test and trace programme condemned by MPs

England’s test and trace programme failed to make a “measurable difference” to the spread of the pandemic despite an outlay of £23bn, an “unimaginable” level of expenditure, a parliamentary spending watchdog has claimed.

Another world beater

I;'m trying to find figures on what has actually been spent, vs what was budgeted.

As of October last year £4 billion had actuall'y been spent out of the total budget, and a large % of that was the laboratory testing - which is also shared across the whole of the UK. There's been a massive ramp up in testing since then, so I could easily believe that that figure has doubled, but it would still be a long way short of £23 billion that was in last year's budget

[Saint]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

Now this is an interestingly ironic development, although obviously negotiations would have been more or less completed before the Aus export ban, and production will only seem to come online at a point where it will likely not be at any risk of forming part of Italy's current plans and potential confiscation.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 0.ece/amp/

Getting more positive by the day that the developing world won't have to wait until late 2022 before seeing meaningful levels of jabs available.

It's certainly unexpected.

I also see that the EU is accusing the UK of implementing an export ban of all vaccine and vaccine components. Not sure what the angle is here, as if we were then one of the critical components of Pfizer wouldn't be reaching them

[SaintK]

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

Now this is an interestingly ironic development, although obviously negotiations would have been more or less completed before the Aus export ban, and production will only seem to come online at a point where it will likely not be at any risk of forming part of Italy's current plans and potential confiscation.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 0.ece/amp/

Getting more positive by the day that the developing world won't have to wait until late 2022 before seeing meaningful levels of jabs available.

It's certainly unexpected.

I also see that the EU is accusing the UK of implementing an export ban of all vaccine and vaccine components. Not sure what the angle is here, as if we were then one of the critical components of Pfizer wouldn't be reaching them

Robust reaction from our lot!

A senior European Union diplomat was summoned to the Foreign Office this morning in the row over vaccine supply, PA Media reports.
As my colleague Jessica Elgot reports, Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, ordered the meeting in response to claims by the president of the European council, Charles Michel, that the UK has banned exports of vaccines, which the government says are entirely false. Here story is here.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/20 ... -claims

[Ovals]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

I have said my piece on this - a really bizarre claim.

Dpedin won't be satisfied until we have all signed affidavits confirming that we agree that Boris ("the Bumblecunt") is personally and solely responsible for every single death in the UK.

[TheNatalShark]

It's certainly unexpected.

I also see that the EU is accusing the UK of implementing an export ban of all vaccine and vaccine components. Not sure what the angle is here, as if we were then one of the critical components of Pfizer wouldn't be reaching them

Hopefully it can help the EMA move past any politics (and Russia likewise in whatever production facilities inspections necessary) and "quickly" finish the approval application, to allow developing countries that are not yet comfortable accepting it to do so.

Michel's is another weirdly confrontational jibe, thinking of sinking in and accepting we'll have increasingly poor relations over at least the next decade until we all get bored of, or break, the stick.

[Insane_Homer]

Raab has written to the EU denouncing their vaccine export ban claim, so it's very probably true.

because technically this isn't a ban...

"The UK Government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to supply 100 million doses of the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and have agreed delivery timescales for this.
"The detail of any commercial agreements between the UK government and AstraZeneca for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine are commercially sensitive."

"I wasn't going to settle for a contract that allowed the Oxford vaccine to be delivered to others around the world before us. I was insisting we could keep all of the British public safe as my primary responsibility as the Health Secretary," he said.

[tc27]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

I have said my piece on this - a really bizarre claim.

Dpedin won't be satisfied until we have all signed affidavits confirming that we agree that Boris ("the Bumblecunt") is personally and solely responsible for every single death in the UK.

Yes and whilst academics in every other field of science and humanities can never agree about anything less than a year into a global epidemic the decisive research is complete - its slight variations in policies (for example having 5 tiers instead of 4 or using a different slogan to 'Hands, Space, Face') that are the most important factors.

[Ovals]

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

Now this is an interestingly ironic development, although obviously negotiations would have been more or less completed before the Aus export ban, and production will only seem to come online at a point where it will likely not be at any risk of forming part of Italy's current plans and potential confiscation.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 0.ece/amp/

Getting more positive by the day that the developing world won't have to wait until late 2022 before seeing meaningful levels of jabs available.

It's certainly unexpected.

I also see that the EU is accusing the UK of implementing an export ban of all vaccine and vaccine components. Not sure what the angle is here, as if we were then one of the critical components of Pfizer wouldn't be reaching them

It's extremely embarrassing for the EU; that the, recently, ex member of the EU is having an extremely succesful (independent) vaccine programme - whilst the EU controlled programme has been an utter shambles. Hence, the mud slinging form them - it's just deflection and trying to paint themselves as the good guys. Not sure it will cut much ice with the members.

[TheNatalShark]

It's extremely embarrassing for the EU; that the, recently, ex member of the EU is having an extremely succesful (independent) vaccine programme - whilst the EU controlled programme has been an utter shambles. Hence, the mud slinging form them - it's just deflection and trying to paint themselves as the good guys. Not sure it will cut much ice with the members.

Supposedly 8-9 million doses moved from EU to UK, so 20% of what EU has so far managed to administer (and rough third of what we have). If seniors keep slinging, some will stick. Europe has a strong right wing media too who would gladly see seizing means of production, but they don't tend to be as good at controlling narratives as ours.

If we had exported such a % of completed doses Vs domestically administered without trying to claim a moral high ground as Global Britain, I imagine Bojo's head would have been firmly placed on a spike on tower of London with Cameron invited to stick his todger in the proverbial pig by lunchtime.

[Paddington Bear]

Raab has written to the EU denouncing their vaccine export ban claim, so it's very probably true.

because technically this isn't a ban...

"The UK Government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to supply 100 million doses of the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and have agreed delivery timescales for this.
"The detail of any commercial agreements between the UK government and AstraZeneca for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine are commercially sensitive."

"I wasn't going to settle for a contract that allowed the Oxford vaccine to be delivered to others around the world before us. I was insisting we could keep all of the British public safe as my primary responsibility as the Health Secretary," he said.

No, it's not a ban, and that is pretty clear. The EU can, and does, cock things up and make untrue statements on occasion.

[Saint]

Raab has written to the EU denouncing their vaccine export ban claim, so it's very probably true.

because technically this isn't a ban...

"The UK Government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to supply 100 million doses of the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and have agreed delivery timescales for this.
"The detail of any commercial agreements between the UK government and AstraZeneca for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine are commercially sensitive."

"I wasn't going to settle for a contract that allowed the Oxford vaccine to be delivered to others around the world before us. I was insisting we could keep all of the British public safe as my primary responsibility as the Health Secretary," he said.

No, it's not a ban, and that is pretty clear. The EU can, and does, cock things up and make untrue statements on occasion.

The EU are claiming a ban on all vaccine components. But there's a component of the Pfizer vaccine that is only manufactured in the UK and the US, and at the very minimum that's still being exported. If the EU want to try and claim that we're banning exports of AZ to them then they can go and knock themselves out for all I care.

[Lobby]

Raab has written to the EU denouncing their vaccine export ban claim, so it's very probably true.

because technically this isn't a ban...

"The UK Government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to supply 100 million doses of the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, and have agreed delivery timescales for this.
"The detail of any commercial agreements between the UK government and AstraZeneca for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine are commercially sensitive."

"I wasn't going to settle for a contract that allowed the Oxford vaccine to be delivered to others around the world before us. I was insisting we could keep all of the British public safe as my primary responsibility as the Health Secretary," he said.

No, it's not a ban, and that is pretty clear. The EU can, and does, cock things up and make untrue statements on occasion.

And as Saint has pointed out, while we may not have exported any vaccines as yet, we are the only supplier of a vital ingredient of the Pfizer vaccine being manufactured in Europe, and so the EU's claim that we have banned the export of 'vaccine components' is demonstrably untrue.

[Calculon]

The US has generally had less deaths per head than most European countries, many states have had far less stringent lock-downs and their economy has suffered far less and is now bouncing back strongly (plus they are all getting a cash boost from the US government). Ohh and they are vaccinating quicker than anyone except for the UK.

At some point we are going to have to ask why Europe suffered the worst out of all the all the worlds developed areas despite the far greater social welfare systems and socialized health care than most. It may not be comfortable for us.

I don't know if this will be shown to be a factor, but the US has a population density of 36 people per sqr km, compared to the EU's 112. The median age in the US is 38.3 years, in the EU it's 43.7.

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

It’s probably pointless to generalize too much. If you look at countries like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, China, Australia, New Zealand etc, the main factor in their success is quite possibly public health policies which would include shutting down borders early, track and trace, and in China’s case a strict initial lockdown. While I agree that Europe hasn’t done particularly well there is considerable variation amongst European countries when it comes to death rate per capita and it is factually incorrect to say that the US has had less deaths per head than most European countries.

[Ovals]

I don't know if this will be shown to be a factor, but the US has a population density of 36 people per sqr km, compared to the EU's 112. The median age in the US is 38.3 years, in the EU it's 43.7.

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

It’s probably pointless to generalize too much. If you look at countries like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, China, Australia, New Zealand etc, the main factor in their success is quite possibly public health policies which would include shutting down borders early, track and trace, and in China’s case a strict initial lockdown. While I agree that Europe hasn’t done particularly well there is considerable variation amongst European countries when it comes to death rate per capita and it is factually incorrect to say that the US has had less deaths per head than most European countries.

Levels of obesity have a much stronger correlation with death rates.

And, of course;

The coronavirus variant first discovered in Kent may be up to twice as deadly as previous variants, new research suggests.

The more infectious variant, which swept across the UK at the end of last year before spreading across the world, is between 30% and 100% more deadly, a new study has found.

Epidemiologists from the Universities of Exeter and Bristol said the data suggested the variant was associated with a significantly higher mortality rate among adults diagnosed in the community, compared with previously circulating variants.

[Calculon]

We have been reliably informed that public health policy is the single most important factor in national death rates.

It’s probably pointless to generalize too much. If you look at countries like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, China, Australia, New Zealand etc, the main factor in their success is quite possibly public health policies which would include shutting down borders early, track and trace, and in China’s case a strict initial lockdown. While I agree that Europe hasn’t done particularly well there is considerable variation amongst European countries when it comes to death rate per capita and it is factually incorrect to say that the US has had less deaths per head than most European countries.

Levels of obesity have a much stronger correlation with death rates.

And, of course;

The coronavirus variant first discovered in Kent may be up to twice as deadly as previous variants, new research suggests.

The more infectious variant, which swept across the UK at the end of last year before spreading across the world, is between 30% and 100% more deadly, a new study has found.

Epidemiologists from the Universities of Exeter and Bristol said the data suggested the variant was associated with a significantly higher mortality rate among adults diagnosed in the community, compared with previously circulating variants.

A higher correlation than PHP? How was that compared? PHP has many factors. In that linked article age has an even higher correlation in those selected countries. My point is that generalizing across so many countries is a bit silly. In some countries if the PHP was ineffective, age and health become more important, and vice versa.


The UK variant is now possibly the dominant strain in many countries. Is it more deadly is it than the South African or Brazilian variant? Does PHP not play a role in the emergence, spreading and establishment of new variants?

[Ovals]

It’s probably pointless to generalize too much. If you look at countries like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, China, Australia, New Zealand etc, the main factor in their success is quite possibly public health policies which would include shutting down borders early, track and trace, and in China’s case a strict initial lockdown. While I agree that Europe hasn’t done particularly well there is considerable variation amongst European countries when it comes to death rate per capita and it is factually incorrect to say that the US has had less deaths per head than most European countries.

Levels of obesity have a much stronger correlation with death rates.

And, of course;

The coronavirus variant first discovered in Kent may be up to twice as deadly as previous variants, new research suggests.

The more infectious variant, which swept across the UK at the end of last year before spreading across the world, is between 30% and 100% more deadly, a new study has found.

Epidemiologists from the Universities of Exeter and Bristol said the data suggested the variant was associated with a significantly higher mortality rate among adults diagnosed in the community, compared with previously circulating variants.

A higher correlation than PHP? How was that compared? PHP has many factors. In that linked article age has an even higher correlation in those selected countries. My point is that generalizing across so many countries is a bit silly. In some countries if the PHP was ineffective, age and health become more important, and vice versa.


The UK variant is now possibly the dominant strain in many countries. Is it more deadly is it than the South African or Brazilian variant? Does PHP not play a role in the emergence, spreading and establishment of new variants?

Well, you could widen the scope of PHP to include almost every aspect that would affect the mortality rate - but I think we were being more specific in this discussion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ays-report

No doubt that our Government were slow to act - but the UK - with it's old population, high density of population, high levels of obesity, more dangerous variant etc.. was always going to have a tougher time than many others.

[tc27]

Common sense dictates public health policy has a huge role to play - but its clearly just one of the drivers.

[Raggs]

Czechia is getting absolutely hammered, what's going on there?

[Sandstorm]

Czechia is getting absolutely hammered, what's going on there?

Hot girl snuggling is rife?

[tabascoboy]

Czechia is getting absolutely hammered, what's going on there?

"Instead, the current Czech catastrophe is akin to death by a thousand cuts, a result of dozens of tiny missteps, late decisions and botched public health messages, experts tell CNN."

They failed to learn from events here in the UK then!

[Sandstorm]

Czechia is getting absolutely hammered, what's going on there?

"Instead, the current Czech catastrophe is akin to death by a thousand cuts, a result of dozens of tiny missteps, late decisions and botched public health messages, experts tell CNN."

They failed to learn from events here in the UK then!

They're using university students and even high school kids to help out at Covid hospitals with admissions process, etc. It's insane!

[Lobby]

The EU has now conceded that there is no UK ban on vaccines or vaccine components.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... u-concedes

The Germans don't appear to be too impressed with the EU's approach:

Germany’s ambassador to Britain, Andreas Michaelis, called for an end to the sparring between the EU and UK. Michaelis, a former head of Germany’s diplomatic service, said the relationship had to improve in the wake of disputes over vaccines and the Brexit withdrawal agreement. “It should not continue like this,” he tweeted. “We have important things to do. Jointly!”

[tc27]

Being a sluggish few days for vaccines in the UK.

However it appears AZ has now really scaled up and we should expect 500k a day starting from the 14/15th which will hopefully get the trend moving rapidly in the other direction.

[dpedin]

Common sense dictates public health policy has a huge role to play - but its clearly just one of the drivers.

It is the key one.

If you have a strong and effective PH response and minimise the community transmission of covid19 from the get go then you minimise the spread of the virus and the number of hospitalisations and ultimately deaths. You close borders. You maintain control by focused PH actions to control outbreaks and your health systems can cope with extra demand whilst maintaining other services, This is what successful countries have done. You can then get back to more normality, schools open and the economy gets up and running again. Examples include NZ, Australia, South Vietnam and most of the nordic countries apart from Sweden.

If your public health response fails to control community transmission and the the virus runs out of control then you have greater hospitalisations and deaths. You keep borders open and import additional cases and strains. You then have increased hospitalisations and move to maintaining essential health services only. If you have a population who are older, more obese and greater levels of diabetes then you have a lot more deaths and long covid sufferers. This is what less successful countries have done. You then have continual lock downs and take longer and longer to get back to normal and the economy suffers badly and takes a long time to recover. This is the UK.

PH response is crucial - done well = minimise deaths and economic hit, done badly = lots of deaths and long covid and big economic hit. The other factors will influence the size of the hit in terms of deaths and other health problems and the economic and social cost of any response to the pandemic.

[dpedin]

Czechia is getting absolutely hammered, what's going on there?

"Instead, the current Czech catastrophe is akin to death by a thousand cuts, a result of dozens of tiny missteps, late decisions and botched public health messages, experts tell CNN."

They failed to learn from events here in the UK then!

They're using university students and even high school kids to help out at Covid hospitals with admissions process, etc. It's insane!

Sounds like a failed PH response from their Gov ... or it could be they are all fat and live in the same house?

[Saint]

Being a sluggish few days for vaccines in the UK.

However it appears AZ has now really scaled up and we should expect 500k a day starting from the 14/15th which will hopefully get the trend moving rapidly in the other direction.

Apparently there's some arrangement where 10 million of our 100 million contract with AZ are shipping from SII, with the first shipment already in country and undergoing final testing/approval. The EMA is also apparently auditing SII with the view to include them as part of the EUs supply chains

By all accounts the Novavax factory has been starting to stockpile vaccine since mid Feb, so there's going to be a large amount of additional vaccine in the UK as soon as it gets approved; globally they're targeting 150 million doses a month by mid-April