NPR

laurent wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:57 am

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:28 am

laurent wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:02 am
AZ is distributed through GP and pharmacist AFAIK so not sure about the logistics here the 1 Million is still not much of a stockpile. the docs + pharmacist it's been available for just over 2 weeks through that channel.

So, the report as of the start of the month was that out of the 1.7 million doses delivered to France by then, 600K had been issued to pharmacies and GPs, only 150K had been used. So it's sitting the the fridges centrally, and sitting in the fridges locally Pfizer in the meantime is flying off the shelves

The numbers of jabs have doubled I doubt the stock have increased. (when they allowed pharmacist to do the jab the GP had to take a week off... (This lead to a good bit of screaming with appointments having to be cancelled).

I think logistics are way to complicated

Whilst I have other points to respond to, the trendline of increased AZ usage in France is clear, and with AZ now forecasting even fewer deliveries in April (20mm) than March (30mm) I imagine there will be bigger emphasis on retaining second doses for stockpile to meet 3-4 week second dose. So only utilising 50% could actually be a "realistic" ceiling for the current jab gap (whether the jab gap should be delayed is a another argument) given supply uncertainty.



And here, whilst clunky to read (although can't think of better presentation), we can see that this usage Vs supply rate is unsustainable even with the latest delivery.



The "doses are just going to sit in fridges and not get used" argument does not hold water.

All redundant really - Thailand is lifting it's hold, and I would imagine other countries will follow soon

Lay of the French its the Italians who are going nuts:

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:28 pm Lay of the French its the Italians who are going nuts:

From Reuters:

ROME, March 15 (Reuters) - Prosecutors in the northern Italian region of Piedmont said on Monday they had seized a batch of 393,600 shots of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine following the death of a man hours after he had received a jab.

The move represents another blow to the image of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Italy and will further hinder the government's anti-coronavirus inoculation campaign.

On Sunday Piedmont's regional government suspended use of the batch, ABV5811, after Sandro Tognatti, a 57-year-old music teacher, fell ill and died in circumstances that have not yet been clarified.

Magistrates in Sicily ordered the seizure of a separate batch of AstraZeneca vaccine last week following the sudden deaths of two men who had recently been inoculated.

The Italian government has said there was no evidence of a connection between the deaths and the jabs and has allowed the AstraZeneca vaccine to continue to be administered.

This is turning into stupid paranoia ...

Not good as at any rate the AZ vaccine was very much part of the Scaling strategy for the EU.

And now Germany halting AZ.

Absolutely nuts. There's absolutely no evidence for this, nor is there even any theoretical explanation how the vaccine might cause it anyway

Copied from elsewhere:

If you vaccinate 100,000 people over the age of 50 today rather than tomorrow, you save 15 lives, according to a French analysis.

Germany has 1.7m AstraZeneca doses that are now not being administered.

Delay all of those by a week, you're up 1785 deaths.

tc27 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:19 pm Copied from elsewhere:

If you vaccinate 100,000 people over the age of 50 today rather than tomorrow, you save 15 lives, according to a French analysis.

Germany has 1.7m AstraZeneca doses that are now not being administered.

Delay all of those by a week, you're up 1785 deaths.

Not sure they have same infection level as France. but You could approximate this anyway

and the French Government follows the others by suspending AZ :( FFS

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:04 pm And now Germany halting AZ.

Absolutely nuts. There's absolutely no evidence for this, nor is there even any theoretical explanation how the vaccine might cause it anyway

If the UK govt had any sense (pffft), they'd put Europe on the no-travel list for Summer 2021.

Fascinating

Dont want to go all Bimbo .


https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... 100-years/

First graph there is nary a blip for the 1968 flu Pandemic that supposedly killed 30 k Brits (Lancet article)

Neither is there a blip for the 1957 Flu Pandemic that again supposedly killed 20k Brits (Lancet article)


Not disputing the scale of UK Covid deaths, just that the graph they have seems oddly to miss out 2 other Major Flu pandemics.
Also yearly flu deaths are supposedly just shy of 20k/year.
Is it just some graphing methodolgy they are using that I am completely missing?

How does quarantine work for fully vaccinated people? I’m in self-isolation for ten days because I was in contact with someone with covid. Can a vaccinated person visit me?

Fangle wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:30 pm How does quarantine work for fully vaccinated people? I’m in self-isolation for ten days because I was in contact with someone with covid. Can a vaccinated person visit me?

No-one should visit you. You are possibly infectious and the vaccine is not 100% effective.

Glaston wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:36 pm Dont want to go all Bimbo .


https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... 100-years/

First graph there is nary a blip for the 1968 flu Pandemic that supposedly killed 30 k Brits (Lancet article)

Neither is there a blip for the 1957 Flu Pandemic that again supposedly killed 20k Brits (Lancet article)


Not disputing the scale of UK Covid deaths, just that the graph they have seems oddly to miss out 2 other Major Flu pandemics.
Also yearly flu deaths are supposedly just shy of 20k/year.
Is it just some graphing methodolgy they are using that I am completely missing?

I think they've excluded the background noise of flu (which can vary quite a bit year to year) and some other causes to highlight effectively the "non-standard" or unexpected deaths in any given year. Over the last 10 years flu deaths have varied from less than 18,000 to more than 44,000 so it would look very noisy for what is largely speaking something that "just happens"

Flu kills the very weak and has no long-term effects on healthy sufferers.

Covid kills weak and not weak people, plus the long-term effects of Covid19 are looking increasingly shite.

They are NOT the same.

And now Spain jumps onboard the stupidity bandwagon

Do you think we could ask the EU to send their supplies to us?

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:38 pm

Glaston wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:36 pm Dont want to go all Bimbo .


https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... 100-years/

First graph there is nary a blip for the 1968 flu Pandemic that supposedly killed 30 k Brits (Lancet article)

Neither is there a blip for the 1957 Flu Pandemic that again supposedly killed 20k Brits (Lancet article)


Not disputing the scale of UK Covid deaths, just that the graph they have seems oddly to miss out 2 other Major Flu pandemics.
Also yearly flu deaths are supposedly just shy of 20k/year.
Is it just some graphing methodolgy they are using that I am completely missing?

I think they've excluded the background noise of flu (which can vary quite a bit year to year) and some other causes to highlight effectively the "non-standard" or unexpected deaths in any given year. Over the last 10 years flu deaths have varied from less than 18,000 to more than 44,000 so it would look very noisy for what is largely speaking something that "just happens"

Yeah, I think that’s right, they’re using a classification system that puts the number of deaths from certain diseases in different categories. Flu is one category, ‘other infectious diseases’ is another category and that’s what’s shown in the graph.

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:34 pm And now Spain jumps onboard the stupidity bandwagon

I wonder how many lives will be lost through this pandemic of stupidity.

Ovals wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:38 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:34 pm And now Spain jumps onboard the stupidity bandwagon

I wonder how many lives will be lost through this pandemic of stupidity.

From the horse's mouth, the Italian Regulator has confirmed the decision to suspend AZ vaccines is political, rather than safety related:

ROME (Reuters) - The decision by Germany, France and Italy to suspend AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 shots after several countries reported possible serious side-effects is a “political one”, the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA said on Tuesday.

“We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations... to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told daily la Repubblica in an interview.

Magrini said that the AstraZeneca vaccine was safe and that the benefit to risk ratio of the jab is “widely positive”. There have been eight deaths and four cases of serious side-effects following vaccinations in Italy, he added.

Aifa will take two to three days to collect all required data and once “doubts are cleared we can carry on at a faster speed than before,” Magrini said.

Classic cases of CYA, from both scientists and politicians. Started in SA with their decision on the AZ vaccine.

Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

Lobby wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:04 am

Ovals wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:38 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:34 pm And now Spain jumps onboard the stupidity bandwagon

I wonder how many lives will be lost through this pandemic of stupidity.

From the horse's mouth, the Italian Regulator has confirmed the decision to suspend AZ vaccines is political, rather than safety related:

ROME (Reuters) - The decision by Germany, France and Italy to suspend AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 shots after several countries reported possible serious side-effects is a “political one”, the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA said on Tuesday.

“We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations... to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told daily la Repubblica in an interview.

Magrini said that the AstraZeneca vaccine was safe and that the benefit to risk ratio of the jab is “widely positive”. There have been eight deaths and four cases of serious side-effects following vaccinations in Italy, he added.

Aifa will take two to three days to collect all required data and once “doubts are cleared we can carry on at a faster speed than before,” Magrini said.

And France now admits the same.

France decided to suspend the AstraZeneca jab in part because Germany did, “because we would have three days of stress after the German decision,” a French minister told POLITICO Monday evening.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:24 am Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

Schools have not closed here in France this has kept the economy going but also most likely kept infection rates high and now they are too high ...

Likely going to be lockdown soon.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:24 am Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

UK cases levelled off over the last week. Could be just the effect of the extra testing of 4m senior school kids (UK wide) that probably wouldn't, otherwise, have been identified as having Covid.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:57 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:04 pm And now Germany halting AZ.

Absolutely nuts. There's absolutely no evidence for this, nor is there even any theoretical explanation how the vaccine might cause it anyway

If the UK govt had any sense (pffft), they'd put Europe on the no-travel list for Summer 2021.

Political suicide, though, can you imagine the screaming from all quarters from the all in two weeks boozing and baking your brains on a beach crowd to the discrete little place we know that's away from the tourist traps and the common oiks brigade.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:24 am Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

I hope we’ve got to a situation where hospitalisations and deaths will be a far lower proportion of cases now.

Every unlock step is going to see a rise in positive tests - also specifically with schools there is a lot of additional testing being done.

Positive test numbers is probably the least useful metric compared to deaths and hospitalizations.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:43 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:57 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:04 pm And now Germany halting AZ.

Absolutely nuts. There's absolutely no evidence for this, nor is there even any theoretical explanation how the vaccine might cause it anyway

If the UK govt had any sense (pffft), they'd put Europe on the no-travel list for Summer 2021.

Political suicide, though, can you imagine the screaming from all quarters from the all in two weeks boozing and baking your brains on a beach crowd to the discrete little place we know that's away from the tourist traps and the common oiks brigade.

I think this is what the government are afraid of, and I think they've misjudged the public mood on this. People seem supportive of significant restrictions atm.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:30 am

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:43 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:57 pm

If the UK govt had any sense (pffft), they'd put Europe on the no-travel list for Summer 2021.

Political suicide, though, can you imagine the screaming from all quarters from the all in two weeks boozing and baking your brains on a beach crowd to the discrete little place we know that's away from the tourist traps and the common oiks brigade.

I think this is what the government are afraid of, and I think they've misjudged the public mood on this. People seem supportive of significant restrictions atm.

Fwiw, which isn’t much, I’ve written off foreign travel this year. Going to Whitstable instead.

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:33 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:30 am

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:43 am

Political suicide, though, can you imagine the screaming from all quarters from the all in two weeks boozing and baking your brains on a beach crowd to the discrete little place we know that's away from the tourist traps and the common oiks brigade.

I think this is what the government are afraid of, and I think they've misjudged the public mood on this. People seem supportive of significant restrictions atm.

Fwiw, which isn’t much, I’ve written off foreign travel this year. Going to Whitstable instead.

Yeah I'm not a sunseeker so largely holiday in the British Isles anyway, but this is the attitude of pretty much all of my friends and family.
I think I may have posted this before but I highly recommend setting up camp in the Old Neptune's beach beer garden there. Good beer, unique setting.

NHS now accepting requests for all over 50s. Login and pick your dates + location for 1st and 2nd jab today. No need to wait for your letter.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

My wife booked her first jab for next Friday, then mid June.

Not in Wales..

Im 57, still waiting..

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:30 am NHS now accepting requests for all over 50s. Login and pick your dates + location for 1st and 2nd jab today. No need to wait for your letter.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

My wife booked her first jab for next Friday, then mid June.

Over 55s it says on that link

Study indicates UK Variant may have 55% higher mortality risk. Probably the main reason the UKs deaths in wave 3 have being so awful (but does not the delay in locking down before Christmas obviously).

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:47 am Study indicates UK Variant may have 55% higher mortality risk. Probably the main reason the UKs deaths in wave 3 have being so awful (but does not the delay in locking down before Christmas obviously).

Bloody hell. I thought the view at the time was that it was significantly more infectious but not more dangerous.

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:50 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:47 am Study indicates UK Variant may have 55% higher mortality risk. Probably the main reason the UKs deaths in wave 3 have being so awful (but does not the delay in locking down before Christmas obviously).

Bloody hell. I thought the view at the time was that it was significantly more infectious but not more dangerous.

Unfortunately, you can know that it's more contagious a lot sooner before you can tell it's more dangerous. Both in terms of delay between infection and death, and the far smaller number of deaths vs infections, to reach a reasonable number of incidents for comparison.

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:35 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:30 am NHS now accepting requests for all over 50s. Login and pick your dates + location for 1st and 2nd jab today. No need to wait for your letter.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

My wife booked her first jab for next Friday, then mid June.

Over 55s it says on that link

It doesn't matter. You can do it now if you are 50 and over. The website checks your NHS number against your DOB and you get through. My wife and 2 colleagues under 55 in this area all booked this morning.

If you want to wait for the website banner to change, that's ok too.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:54 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:35 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:30 am NHS now accepting requests for all over 50s. Login and pick your dates + location for 1st and 2nd jab today. No need to wait for your letter.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

My wife booked her first jab for next Friday, then mid June.

Over 55s it says on that link

It doesn't matter. You can do it now if you are 50 and over. The website checks your NHS number against your DOB and you get through. My wife and 2 colleagues under 55 in this area all booked this morning.

If you want to wait for the website banner to change, that's ok too.

I'm not in England, so can't anyway

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:52 am

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:50 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:47 am Study indicates UK Variant may have 55% higher mortality risk. Probably the main reason the UKs deaths in wave 3 have being so awful (but does not the delay in locking down before Christmas obviously).

Bloody hell. I thought the view at the time was that it was significantly more infectious but not more dangerous.

Unfortunately, you can know that it's more contagious a lot sooner before you can tell it's more dangerous. Both in terms of delay between infection and death, and the far smaller number of deaths vs infections, to reach a reasonable number of incidents for comparison.

In this the UK 3rd wave or are we still in 2nd wave from November? Hard to keep up....