NPR

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 10:54 am I've made a list of where all the crazy head bangers are sending their votes (confirmed ERG members or Spartans). Out of the candidates, Braverman/Javid/Mordaunt/Patel are confirmed to have been ERG members at some point, and Braverman/Patel were both Spartans and voted down May's deal.

Badenoch - 4 (Gove, Tomlinson, Lopez, Rowley)
Braverman - 6 (Baker, Hollobone, Lewis, Jones, Smith, Swayne)
Hunt - 2 (Djanogly, Kawczynski)
Javid - 2 (P Latham, M Wood)
Mordaunt - 1 (Leadsom)
Patel - no declared supporters.
Shapps - 1 (R Courts)
Sunak - 2 (Afolami, L Fox)
Truss - 6 (Coffey, Cleverly, Doyle-Price, Fysh, Jayawardena, Shelbrooke)
Tugendhat - 2 (Trevelyan, Morris)
Zahawi - 2 (Gullis, B Lewis)

Update on this (also corrected errors in the first list), using the Telegraph and Mirror candidate declaration lists. If there were any differences I went with the Telegraph list (only Chope so far, Telegraph lists as Braverman, Mirror as Truss).

Badenoch picked up Courts from the Shapps backers. Javid's backers didn't declare for anyone else.

Truss is still the preferred ERG/Spartan candidate, adding 4. Mordaunt adds 3. Badenoch and Braverman both add 2. Sunak adds 1. Hunt/Tugendhat/Zahawi all added 0, two of those are now out.

Badenoch - 6 (R Courts, M Gove, J Tomlinson, J Lopez, N Mills, L Rowley)
Braverman - 8 (S Baker, C Chope, P Hollobone, J Lewis, B Jenkin, D Jones, H Smith, D Swayne)
Hunt - 2 (J Djanogly, D Kawczynski)
Mordaunt - 4 (J Baron, D Davis, A Leadsom. J Penrose)
Sunak - 3 (B Afolami, L Fox, T Villiers)
Truss - 10 (T Coffey, J Cleverly, J Doyle-Price, I Duncan Smith, M Francois, M Fysh, R Jayawardena, J Rees-Mogg, L Robertson, A Shelbrooke)
Tugendhat - 2 (AM Trevelyan, AM Morris)
Zahawi - 2 (J Gullis, B Lewis)

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:40 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:39 pm

Depends on your point of view.

My own preference is a Sunak and Kemi final 2 with Kemi winning

I have no preference whatsoever and really don't care who wins

I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

She is something new and will have the best chance of beating Starmer, in my opinion.

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:40 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:39 pm

Depends on your point of view.

My own preference is a Sunak and Kemi final 2 with Kemi winning

I have no preference whatsoever and really don't care who wins

I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

Lose to Starmer?

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:30 pm Provided the ERG lot stay focused then one of Kemi, Liz and Braverman are guaranteed to make the final 2. Provided their votes transfer en masse

Baker has already said publicly that he regards Gove/Badenoch as a trojan horse for Sunak and that Gove secretly still backs Sunak.

Truss was a Remainer, the ERG/Spartans backing her want a continuity Johnson candidate to continue their careers, because for them it's all about their careers (Brexit, making Johnson leader, all of it), if Truss looks weak they ditch her and Mordaunt is then the next best as Sunak already has his team and they're not in it. The ERG/Spartans backing Braverman are the hardcore, once she's out Mordaunt is the only ERG/Spartan left so they'll back her.

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:06 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:40 pm
I have no preference whatsoever and really don't care who wins

I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

She is something new and will have the best chance of beating Starmer, in my opinion.

Read my question again you haven't answered it.

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:16 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:06 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm
I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

She is something new and will have the best chance of beating Starmer, in my opinion.

Read my question again you haven't answered it.

Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 5:19 pm What do we reckon - Zahawi’s votes going to Truss, Hunt’s to Tugenhadt?

Looks about right.

Zahawi's crew were purely careerists. He stood no chance at all. They all pushed him as far as they could, so they could all bargain from a stronger position for places at the table of a candidate more likely to win (and be able to see better who could win before committing). So they're all going to Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss, depending on who will have them and what deals they can get. Zahawi himself will be doing this.

Hunt's crew were still mostly his early backers and may have genuinely thought he had a chance, Tugendhat is the closest to his position so they get most of his support. If not, same as Zahawi's crew.

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:18 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:16 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:06 pm

She is something new and will have the best chance of beating Starmer, in my opinion.

Read my question again you haven't answered it.

Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

That isn't what she would do that is a potential output of her success. What would she do for the country to achieve that? What devastation would Labour do and which policies would cause this devastation?

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:40 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:39 pm

Depends on your point of view.

My own preference is a Sunak and Kemi final 2 with Kemi winning

I have no preference whatsoever and really don't care who wins

I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

Tbh, whilst I disagree with her reactionary political stance and strange take on critical race theory she is at least intelligent and has an opinion.
That said she is an evil unhinged bigot given her hounding of Nadine White.

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:18 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:16 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:06 pm

She is something new and will have the best chance of beating Starmer, in my opinion.

Read my question again you haven't answered it.

Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

Because this shower haven’t fucked the country sideways, no sirree.

To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

Hunt was an absolute disaster at the Health Dept, arrogant and confrontational and not willing to listene to anyone.
He made feck up after feck up and alienated virtually thew whole work force and wasted billions and missed the opportunityof bringing Health and Social care together.

He should never have served high office agian. Tbh though he at least apologised and realised he made mistake after mistake and seemed to have learned something from his failures.
But PM ? GTFO

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

It's come to something when he's the safe, moderate option. Tory party's full of irredeemables now.

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:09 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

Hunt was an absolute disaster at the Health Dept, arrogant and confrontational and not willing to listene to anyone.
He made feck up after feck up and alienated virtually thew whole work force and wasted billions and missed the opportunityof bringing Health and Social care together.

He should never have served high office agian. Tbh though he at least apologised and realised he made mistake after mistake and seemed to have learned something from his failures.
But PM ? GTFO

This.

He was another one so far out of his depth at Health, the shouting starting in his office and carried on down the chain

Useless

Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:00 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:18 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:16 pm
Read my question again you haven't answered it.

Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

Because this shower haven’t fucked the country sideways, no sirree.

This bit really confuses me too. "Labour would be devastating!" just look around ffs, labour *might* be devastating, tories have absolutely proven they are.

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:49 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:40 pm
I have no preference whatsoever and really don't care who wins

I'm curious what he thinks they will achieve. What would kemi as PM do for the country?

Tbh, whilst I disagree with her reactionary political stance and strange take on critical race theory she is at least intelligent and has an opinion.
That said she is an evil unhinged bigot given her hounding of Nadine White.

I was trying to see if we could get beyond regurgitating tabloid headlines.

Hunt was useless and divisive, driven by ideological bullshit. Hated by NHS staff and NHS Employers. Not a safe pair of hands.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/jeremy ... r-doctors/

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

He was until he had Esther McVey as his side kick.

sefton wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:08 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

He was until he had Esther McVey as his side kick.

Yes, he was my possibly the best of a very bad bunch choice. As was May at the time.

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:09 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

Hunt was an absolute disaster at the Health Dept, arrogant and confrontational and not willing to listene to anyone.
He made feck up after feck up and alienated virtually thew whole work force and wasted billions and missed the opportunityof bringing Health and Social care together.

He should never have served high office agian. Tbh though he at least apologised and realised he made mistake after mistake and seemed to have learned something from his failures.
But PM ? GTFO

I get it that as an NHS employee, or people close to it, it isn’t the happiest of choices, but he does seem a to care a bit and be a bit less mental than the rest. He seems pretty intelligent and less ideologicaly driven than many

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:51 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:09 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 8:02 pm To me the only serious candidate was Hunt, so fuck them all, burn the house down

Hunt was an absolute disaster at the Health Dept, arrogant and confrontational and not willing to listene to anyone.
He made feck up after feck up and alienated virtually thew whole work force and wasted billions and missed the opportunityof bringing Health and Social care together.

He should never have served high office agian. Tbh though he at least apologised and realised he made mistake after mistake and seemed to have learned something from his failures.
But PM ? GTFO

I get it that as an NHS employee, or people close to it, it isn’t the happiest of choices, but he does seem a to care a bit and be a bit less mental than the rest. He seems pretty intelligent and less ideologicaly driven than many

Being an NHS employee has nothing to do with it.
He was incompetent and his ideologically driven agenda damaged patient care.
He was useless. See my link.

To even things up politically Andy Burnham's tenure for Labour at Health was an jtter disgrace. His attempts at papering over coverup was appalling.

PM will win the Tory leadership election. Sunak just isn't right wing enough and hasn't promised tax cuts - even if he won the most MP votes, which is highly unlikely, the members aren't keen on him now. PM coming 2nd in the 1st round will mean that the anti Sunak brigade, and the right wingers, will start backing her as the most likely candidate to succeed - she'll win the most MPs and will walk the members' ballot.

Shit race as I think everyone agrees.
What I would say is even not agreeing with them on a lot, at least Badenoch and Tugendhat seem to have some sort of idea of how they would like to shape the country, rather than just letting things drift.
Truss and Mordaunt just want to say that they're PM.

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:18 pm Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

I presume you mean "more devastation". Like in the possibility of invoking a scorched earth policy in an already desertified landscape.

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:32 pm PM will win the Tory leadership election. Sunak just isn't right wing enough and hasn't promised tax cuts - even if he won the most MP votes, which is highly unlikely, the members aren't keen on him now. PM coming 2nd in the 1st round will mean that the anti Sunak brigade, and the right wingers, will start backing her as the most likely candidate to succeed - she'll win the most MPs and will walk the members' ballot.

The hoot about Sunak is he and his proponents are repeatedly stating that he has the expertise to lead the UK economy out of the abyss it sits in....... whilst seemingly unable to join the dots that he was the man in charge for the period that got the UK into this same hole.

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:28 pm

ia801310 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:18 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:16 pm
Read my question again you haven't answered it.

Keeping labour and Starmer in opposition is enough for me. Even if they do nothing else it will be better than the devastation a Labour government would bring to the UK

That isn't what she would do that is a potential output of her success. What would she do for the country to achieve that? What devastation would Labour do and which policies would cause this devastation?

Quite unfair that, bringing policies into politics.

I'm finding all this chat about tax cuts laughable. Any fiscal headroom the government finds is going to have to go into intervening in the domestic energy market



The above increases will simply push many people into a debt spiral or take away almost any discretionary spending (with the awful economic circumstances). Its going to dominate politics.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:41 am Shit race as I think everyone agrees.
What I would say is even not agreeing with them on a lot, at least Badenoch and Tugendhat seem to have some sort of idea of how they would like to shape the country, rather than just letting things drift.
Truss and Mordaunt just want to say that they're PM.

Christ!! It's so depressing. None of them are "statesmen/women" material and all appear to be standing out of some sort of vanity and ego reason.
To think our next PM is to be decided by around 150,000 mainly male, middle class, white 60+ year olds is so depressing!
I've decided that after years of bombastic, foghorn vocals from the blonde slug I would vote for the candidate with the most easy listening voice. So far that would be Mordaunt
God forbid that Truss wins, I can only listen to her vapid droning for about 20 seconds at the most!!!!

SaintK wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:22 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:41 am Shit race as I think everyone agrees.
What I would say is even not agreeing with them on a lot, at least Badenoch and Tugendhat seem to have some sort of idea of how they would like to shape the country, rather than just letting things drift.
Truss and Mordaunt just want to say that they're PM.

Christ!! It's so depressing. None of them are "statesmen/women" material and all appear to be standing out of some sort of vanity and ego reason.
To think our next PM is to be decided by around 150,000 mainly male, middle class, white 60+ year olds is so depressing!
I've decided that after years of bombastic, foghorn vocals from the blonde slug I would vote for the candidate with the most easy listening voice. So far that would be Mordaunt
God forbid that Truss wins, I can only listen to her vapid droning for about 20 seconds at the most!!!!

Welcome to the 51st State. Politics of personality as introduced from across the Atlantic by Blair and co. And we are stuck with it, probably forever.

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:32 pm PM will win the Tory leadership election. Sunak just isn't right wing enough and hasn't promised tax cuts - even if he won the most MP votes, which is highly unlikely, the members aren't keen on him now. PM coming 2nd in the 1st round will mean that the anti Sunak brigade, and the right wingers, will start backing her as the most likely candidate to succeed - she'll win the most MPs and will walk the members' ballot.

That's my take too.

It was at the end of last year when Mordaunt started making her move. There was a Chatham House speech when she said the "UK, US and their allies" were free market capitalist nations, but other nations had "state led capitalism" and "non-tariff barriers", heavily implying China and the EU weren't real capitalist nations and were enemies. Then there was a speech in the US when she said something like "the UK left the EU orbit to be with you", she literally used the word "orbit", as in she wants the UK to become even more a US satellite. Both speeches were close together and crazy in the way that Tories like their swivel eyed loons, also sexier and a better liar/demagogue than Truss. I looked up her odds and they were 35/1, talked myself out of it thinking she would end up a Braverman type candidate who failed early on. Damn.

tc27 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:21 am I'm finding all this chat about tax cuts laughable. Any fiscal headroom the government finds is going to have to go into intervening in the domestic energy market



The above increases will simply push many people into a debt spiral or take away almost any discretionary spending (with the awful economic circumstances). Its going to dominate politics.

They'll cut taxes on energy, they'll have to.

It'll be well into autumn before anything can be done though

Iain(bobbity) wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:15 am It'll be well into autumn before anything can be done though

Yeah obviously. The Tories are done as a credible economic party after the winter.

SaintK wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:22 am Christ!! It's so depressing. None of them are "statesmen/women" material and all appear to be standing out of some sort of vanity and ego reason.

The quality level is the same as The Apprentice, all of them could be removed from this contest dropped directly into an Apprentice episode and not look too out of place. No substance at all, every one of them some combination of liar/incompetent/chancer.

The reverse evolution of Tory leaders is going to continue, with the current one always being worse than the previous one. The gormless Apprentice contestant Mordaunt looks like the least damage option, the other gormless Apprentice contestant Truss will reinstall team Johnson into government (maybe even Johnson himself?). Sunak is a billionaire so automatically has conflict of interest issues that are ignored (like corruption generally is ignored), he's polling awfully and will need to find charisma from somewhere to turn it around.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:41 am Shit race as I think everyone agrees.
What I would say is even not agreeing with them on a lot, at least Badenoch and Tugendhat seem to have some sort of idea of how they would like to shape the country, rather than just letting things drift.
Truss and Mordaunt just want to say that they're PM.

Granted that I've never been a Tory voter but while almost anyone has to be better than Johnson, we likely to end up with an ERG puppet with the same dipshits in cabinet posts. Guess that Badenoch and Tugendhat at least don't have that taint of the same old same old about them.

It's not just Tories, across all parties I can't pick out any individual who I can say is in any way inspiring as a possible national leader. Not following politics around the world, perhaps it's not just the UK that is in this malaise and this is a worldwide phenomenon, that you either get a tyrannical strongman, a criminal or a nebbish. Only Zelenskyy and some others such as the Baltic States leaders atm seems to give any positive vibes and that may be more out of sympathy than anything, not knowing anything about their politics.

Tom Tugendhat is probably the best candidate - serious and thoughtful and not ideologically tied to the brexit cult but he's not going to win.

Interesting the ERG deploying Frost to go for PM.

Clearly see her as the impediment to getting Truss into the last two.

tc27 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:31 am Tom Tugendhat is probably the best candidate - serious and thoughtful and not ideologically tied to the brexit cult but he's not going to win.

tc27 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:45 am Interesting the ERG deploying Frost to go for PM.

Clearly see her as the impediment to getting Truss into the last two.

The ERG/Spartan vote is split, as per my post tracking their declarations. I've seen Baker going after Mordaunt as well. Baker has gone after Sunak/Badendoch/Gove for all being on the same team, and gone after Mordaunt for voting for May's deal so not being a "true Brexiter" (the list of Spartans is tiny). So now the "true Brexiter" option looks like Truss, when Mordaunt was an ERG member and cheered on no deal. They're all crazy.

I think most of Braverman's support gets split between Truss and Mordaunt. Baker is clearly backing Truss, maybe he always was. Some in the Braverman camp were backing her because they refused to back Sunak or Truss though, Mordaunt's credentials mean she'll be the natural pick for them.

Frost is a team Johnson careerist who was a remainer like Truss. He's attacking Mordaunt, because his interests are better secured by Truss who is the continuity Johnson candidate.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:28 am It's not just Tories, across all parties I can't pick out any individual who I can say is in any way inspiring as a possible national leader. Not following politics around the world, perhaps it's not just the UK that is in this malaise and this is a worldwide phenomenon, that you either get a tyrannical strongman, a criminal or a nebbish. Only Zelenskyy and some others such as the Baltic States leaders atm seems to give any positive vibes and that may be more out of sympathy than anything, not knowing anything about their politics.

Maybe this is part of the problem. We are not at war (really) and so inspiring ought not to be at the top of the list of desirable attributes. I'd take competent, honest and boring as f**k any day. It also highlights how much we have drifted towards a dictatorship in the UK. The PM should be a titular, representative head of a party and not the party itself.