Calculator, I would be a bit weary of Zeihan's analysis.
He's good if viewed more as entertainment about something you want to know more about, but there's systemic failings in his thinking. He said Ukraine would be a cake walk for Russia, but importantly he wasn't just some mouth saying that he backed it up with some thought through analysis, that turned out to be totally wrong. He massively underestimates human agency/will and massively over estimates impersonal non-human forces (resources, geography, etc), which is why he got Ukraine very wrong. Anyone watching the early vids out of Ukraine knew whatever it was it wouldn't be easy for Russia, Ukrainians were willing to fight so always had a chance even if the odds were impossible, it was never looking like a cake walk for Russia.
In that video he says Argentina will do well because of it's "geography and demographics". He knows technology means geography matters less than it did a century ago, technology has made the world smaller, but just ignores that and insists geography has the same weight it did (does it actually matter if Argentina has good agri land or even if it has no agri at all? if it matters then how much does it matter? Zeihan says "Argentina will do fairly well in the future not because of it's government but because of its geography ...", try telling a Zimbabwean the government doesn't matter and having agri land ensures success). On demographics he over estimates the importance of a younger population (but not as much as he over estimates geography, he thinks Africa's geography outweighs having the youngest populations), he basically thinks with an older population you cannot have a dynamic and/or consumption led economy, because old people don't spend according to him, meanwhile back in the real world in a developed economy earning power increases through someone's life. Old boomers are having foreign holidays every single year and sometimes two a year, go to a decent restaurant in London and see who the customers are it's not people in their 20s/30s (when Zeihan's analysis is that it is). The developed economy with older demographics can also attract immigrants more easily.
He states the "problem has always been Peronism and the government", in other words what the population of Argentina think. Well no shit, will/agency matters. The problem is he never includes what people think in his analysis because he regards it as irrelevant, when it's the most crucial thing. In that vid and in his wider work he states the world will deglobalise and stop trading, but that's not what anyone who matters is thinking or wants. He says in that vid instead there will be a world of blocs, but this is a sneaky move because he knows it's already a world of blocs and that's what globalisation always was.
If you take the opposite view to him, that what people think matters most and nothing is inevitable. Then it becomes harder to dismiss the Argie Refrys.
We've got a live one here
Oh i take his analysis with a large pinch of salt, especially for his non usa stuff. a lot of his statements are very clickbaity and contradictory. i would also agree he tends to underestimates human agency but what i got from that video is him saying despite the Argies having great demographics, amazing agricultural lands and an educated workforce, they keep fucking it up by electing some of the worst politicians. hard to disagree with that.
he does bang about deglobalisation a fair bit, saying the current trend will not only continue but accelerate massively. i'm also skeptical about the last part
he does bang about deglobalisation a fair bit, saying the current trend will not only continue but accelerate massively. i'm also skeptical about the last part
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Insane_Homer
- Posts: 5043
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
- Location: Leafy Surrey
by adopting the US dollar as currency
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
we're talking about Peter Zeihan, a popular and entertaining global analyst/doomsterist who's prone to hyperbole
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David in Gwent
- Posts: 587
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https://www.eiu.com/n/greece-argentina- ... ironments/
Some potentially valuable investment opportunities in Argentina now the commies have been kicked out.
Some potentially valuable investment opportunities in Argentina now the commies have been kicked out.
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David in Gwent
- Posts: 587
- Joined: Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:16 am
Argentina declare a budget surplus for the first time in almost 2 decades 
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... n-16-years
Who would have thought that running your country like a business, instead of some kind of nanny state would actually reap benefits?
El Salvador are ripping up trees too.
REJECT SOCIALISM!
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... n-16-years
Who would have thought that running your country like a business, instead of some kind of nanny state would actually reap benefits?
El Salvador are ripping up trees too.
REJECT SOCIALISM!
The rest of that article is a bit less positive. I wouldn't be overjoyed about losing so much spending power. Argentina is a basket case. If it all goes to shit I guess he might fancy Las malvinas as he pledged he would gain sovereignty over them.David in Gwent wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 1:20 pm Argentina declare a budget surplus for the first time in almost 2 decades
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... n-16-years
Who would have thought that running your country like a business, instead of some kind of nanny state would actually reap benefits?
El Salvador are ripping up trees too.
REJECT SOCIALISM!