So, coronavirus...

[Sandstorm]

What would be an average number of hospitalisations for flu in a year?

Not trying to make any point, just wondering if 1000 people in hospital for COVID at the moment is comparable to a normal flu year

Year? Flu is worse. Early June? After significant lockdowns? I doubt flu comes close.

Sorry, badly worded.

What I was trying to get at was what is the average number of hopitalisations in an average flu season and how does that compare to where we are with COVID today, ie 1000 people in hospital. There obviously comes a point where we accept a number of hospitalisations and end restrictions. I'm not saying this is now of course, just a hypothetical question.

On another note, I heard that at least 10 hospitality venues shut in Edinburgh yesterday due to infections.

Biffer’s graph shows hospitalisations are around 250% higher for Covid vs flu

[tabascoboy]

Decision on June 21st will come on Sunday apparently after the G7 meeting. Would imagine it's going to be at least pushed back by a fortnight, seems sensible but with this lot in charge who knows?

Over 1 million under 30s reportedly booking their 1st jabs in a single day.

[Slick]

Year? Flu is worse. Early June? After significant lockdowns? I doubt flu comes close.

Sorry, badly worded.

What I was trying to get at was what is the average number of hopitalisations in an average flu season and how does that compare to where we are with COVID today, ie 1000 people in hospital. There obviously comes a point where we accept a number of hospitalisations and end restrictions. I'm not saying this is now of course, just a hypothetical question.

On another note, I heard that at least 10 hospitality venues shut in Edinburgh yesterday due to infections.

Biffer’s graph shows hospitalisations are around 250% higher for Covid vs flu

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

[Raggs]

Sorry, badly worded.

What I was trying to get at was what is the average number of hopitalisations in an average flu season and how does that compare to where we are with COVID today, ie 1000 people in hospital. There obviously comes a point where we accept a number of hospitalisations and end restrictions. I'm not saying this is now of course, just a hypothetical question.

On another note, I heard that at least 10 hospitality venues shut in Edinburgh yesterday due to infections.

Biffer’s graph shows hospitalisations are around 250% higher for Covid vs flu

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

But that's not a fair comparison, especially as Covid and Flu are transmitted in very similar ways. So the fair comparison is simply to make a direct comparison as it stands right now. Once covid is equal to flu, then it can be viewed as a similar level of harmfulness.

[Slick]

On another note, is there any indication what we will do in terms of red, amber, green countries once we are are largely vaccinated in the UK?

[Biffer]

What would be an average number of hospitalisations for flu in a year?

Not trying to make any point, just wondering if 1000 people in hospital for COVID at the moment is comparable to a normal flu year

Year? Flu is worse. Early June? After significant lockdowns? I doubt flu comes close.

Sorry, badly worded.

What I was trying to get at was what is the average number of hopitalisations in an average flu season and how does that compare to where we are with COVID today, ie 1000 people in hospital. There obviously comes a point where we accept a number of hospitalisations and end restrictions. I'm not saying this is now of course, just a hypothetical question.

On another note, I heard that at least 10 hospitality venues shut in Edinburgh yesterday due to infections.

On the twitter post I linked to above, you can see very low levels of hospitalisation for flu in the summer. Barely visible on that graph.

Found a few references to some pubs closing after a staff member has tested positive or been advised to self isolate, but not of any outbreaks as such. Might actually be T&T working? Responsible bar owners getting their staff doing regular LFT?

[Biffer]

Sorry, badly worded.

What I was trying to get at was what is the average number of hopitalisations in an average flu season and how does that compare to where we are with COVID today, ie 1000 people in hospital. There obviously comes a point where we accept a number of hospitalisations and end restrictions. I'm not saying this is now of course, just a hypothetical question.

On another note, I heard that at least 10 hospitality venues shut in Edinburgh yesterday due to infections.

Biffer’s graph shows hospitalisations are around 250% higher for Covid vs flu

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

The graph shows flu hospitalisations being virtually zero in summer months.

[Sandstorm]

On another note, is there any indication what we will do in terms of red, amber, green countries once we are are largely vaccinated in the UK?

I think they will remain because of the risk of importing new variants after a holiday on Crete or Maldives.

[robmatic]

Biffer’s graph shows hospitalisations are around 250% higher for Covid vs flu

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

The graph shows flu hospitalisations being virtually zero in summer months.

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

[tabascoboy]

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

When was the last time we had a really severe outbreak of flu? Not sure how we'd deal with something of 1917/8 proportions in our times.

[Sandstorm]

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

When was the last time we had a really severe outbreak of flu? Not sure how we'd deal with something of 1917 proportions in out times.

Flu isn't likely to kill (unvaccinated) doctors and nurses treating elderly patients in hospital. It also has never stretched parts of the NHS to breaking point.

We need to stop comparing Covid to flu

[tabascoboy]

We need to stop comparing Covid to flu

Agreed, for one thing there is at least an existing flu vaccination programme (for over 50s or 55s?). The 1917/8 event is the only comparable in its effect, over 200,00 deaths albeit long before the NHS - plus it came so soon after WW1 which worsened things. Your average winter flu just isn't anywhere near this ballpark.

[dpedin]

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

The graph shows flu hospitalisations being virtually zero in summer months.

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

The graph shows hospital admissions, it doesn't show occupied ICU bed days. We know that covid patients in ICU stay longer than usual flu patient and therefore one admission leads to more occupied bed days than flu or most other ICU admissions. It is number of admissions x average length of stay that is the problem with covid. Average ICU occupied bed days per covid patient compared with flu patient is they key measure we need to look at.

As a result of demand many ICUs have been dramatically expanded during covid and have used theatre and recovery space to expand thus reducing surgical capacity. We also need to expand the floor space in many clinical areas to meet covid infection control requirements which has meant a reduction in beds available in many wards, etc. There is also a requirement for additional cleaning and disinfection of beds etc as patients move which requires additional down time and additional resources. Also existing ICU , critical care staff etc have been exhausted and more staff from paediatric ICU and other adult areas have been radically trained up to provide cover thus depleting other areas. Even then the nationally recognised and required staffing levels have been diluted to less safe staffing levels ie normal ICU staffing would be 1 qualified ICU nurse to 1 bed 24/7 plus cover for tea/coffee/lunch/natural breaks but in many cases this has been reduced to 1 per 2 or 3 beds with support worker back up. Flu is also a seasonal issue and can usually be predicted in advance, there is ongoing world wide monitoring of flu strains and outbreaks, so the NHS and other agencies can get ready and ramp up preparations. We also have annual flu jabs across the NHS which, although not taken up by all and efficacy is lower than covid jabs, usually adds a degree of resilience in the NHS workforce. Then you add in the additional PPE requirements for covid compared to flu etc then you can quickly see why covid has many times worse impact than flu.

The comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system.

[Slick]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

[tabascoboy]

I have been wondering if we have become so attuned to the idea of "threats" being terrorism related, either through groups or hostile states - or even cyber/economic sabotage that we took our state eye of the ball somewhat when it comes to an epidemic or worse global pandemic of this type.

I know that one local hospital is always at low capacity as it's intended to fulfil the needs of a major trauma incident ( I imagine it's not the only one) and yet we all saw just how quickly the NHS became overwhelmed in the early stages last year.

There are some major lessons to be learned not only in the provision of healthcare to ensure we are not struck by such a combination of initial inertia then stumbling into panic in the future.

[Sandstorm]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

[Slick]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

Blah blah blah, when can I go to Magaluf?

[robmatic]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.



I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

Blah blah blah, when can I go to Magaluf?

Thought you weren't allowed back in Magaluf after the last time.

[Sandstorm]

Blah blah blah, when can I go to Magaluf?

Edgbaston after lunch today looks like Magaluf - thousands of pissed-up blokes hanging off each other singing their arses off.

[dpedin]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

Sorry - wasn't meant to be so down on it! I do actually think we will win the battle but I don't think it will be by treating it like flu. I prefer the analogy of measles where we have controlled that through a tough elimination strategy based around vaccination programme of around 95%+ of the population and then swift action to control local outbreaks. We just need to buy more time through lock downs, social distancing, travel limitations etc in order to get our vaccination levels up to over 80% fully vaccinated. Then we can actively control any outbreaks of community transmission through a proper local PH driven track and test etc system.We are nearly there. What we have hopefully learned by now is that a weak suppression strategy and living with the virus like it was flu doesn't work and we end up in a cycle of outbreaks, lockdowns and mutations. As long as the Blonde Bumblecunt doesn't do the stupid thing and go ahead with easing lock down in a. couple of weeks and if we act swiftly in response to any more mutations, then we should be good by end of summer.

[Biffer]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

The thing to understand wrt variants is that they gradually evolve. So we won't get a variant that suddenly switches off all the effects of vaccination in one go. It'll erode it over numerous variants, where different mutations have an additive effect. This means we can keep up with boosters etc, as by the time we get to variant(say) lambda, we'll have boosters dealing with everything up to (say) variant eta, which would mean we'd still be at a high level of protection.

[Biffer]

Yes, but that's pre vaccines. Obviously COVID is a lot worse that flu..... FFS.... I'm asking about now that we have a lot of the at risk people vaccinated how does this latest surge (which I also know is just starting) compare to a winter flu season.

The graph shows flu hospitalisations being virtually zero in summer months.

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

Problem is we have zero data for what covid does in a vaccinated population in winter. We can currently only model it and look at likely outcomes from lab experiments. So we can't currently make that comparison.

[Saint]

The graph shows flu hospitalisations being virtually zero in summer months.

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

Problem is we have zero data for what covid does in a vaccinated population in winter. We can currently only model it and look at likely outcomes from lab experiments. So we can't currently make that comparison.

We don't yet have data on what Covid does to a fully vaccinated (i.e 75% plus population) in summer yet. The data suggests that a fully vaccinated population possibly moves Covid towards a flu-like levels or even lower - but we simply don;t know. What we do know is that Covid, at least in the form of the India/Delta variant spreads far more easily than flu in spring/summer, and requires far more hospital intervention.

[Biffer]

Yes, but how about in comparison to the winter flu season? We don't generally shut down the country in January because of flu, so surely there is some level with an endemic disease where we accept that some folk will fall ill and require treatment.

Problem is we have zero data for what covid does in a vaccinated population in winter. We can currently only model it and look at likely outcomes from lab experiments. So we can't currently make that comparison.

We don't yet have data on what Covid does to a fully vaccinated (i.e 75% plus population) in summer yet. The data suggests that a fully vaccinated population possibly moves Covid towards a flu-like levels or even lower - but we simply don;t know. What we do know is that Covid, at least in the form of the India/Delta variant spreads far more easily than flu in spring/summer, and requires far more hospital intervention.

Yeah. From a distance, it's fascinating watching the academic / scientific community model and interpret data in real time as it's reported. The general public is getting a huge insight into how science works as a part of this.

[Rinkals]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.

he comparison of covid and flu is a false one on many levels, it doesn't help develop a full understanding of the difference in impact and required response on the NHS. Whilst many folk would like us to think that covid and flu are similar and a response can be comparable they are not. If the plan is we need to 'live with covid' and risk further outbreaks and mutations that respond less well to the current vaccines then we really need to assess the additional resources this would require in the NHS and elsewhere across the system

I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

First of all, those vaccines weren't developed in 'less than 18 months'. They've been decades in the development and are the culmination of things like SARS, etc.

Secondly, I worry that the public tolerance of anti-covid measures is stretched to breaking point and that the mutinous behaviour by public figures will undermine them.

Suggesting that the vaccine has been rushed out implies that it's not safe.

We will get through this, but it does need to be approached in a rational manner and it needs compliance, the lack of the former eroding the latter.

[Sandstorm]

I wasn't trying to compate COVID to flu.

But dpedin, thank you, this was a very useful response.



I'm feeling very down about COVID today, this isn't really close to being over, almost feels like we are waiting for the next variant to make the vaccines null and void

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

First of all, those vaccines weren't developed in 'less than 18 months'. They've been decades in the development and are the culmination of things like SARS, etc.

Secondly, I worry that the public tolerance of anti-covid measures is stretched to breaking point and that the mutinous behaviour by public figures will undermine them.

Suggesting that the vaccine has been rushed out implies that it's not safe.

We will get through this, but it does need to be approached in a rational manner and it needs compliance, the lack of the former eroding the latter.

Pedants will pedant

[Saint]

Problem is we have zero data for what covid does in a vaccinated population in winter. We can currently only model it and look at likely outcomes from lab experiments. So we can't currently make that comparison.

We don't yet have data on what Covid does to a fully vaccinated (i.e 75% plus population) in summer yet. The data suggests that a fully vaccinated population possibly moves Covid towards a flu-like levels or even lower - but we simply don;t know. What we do know is that Covid, at least in the form of the India/Delta variant spreads far more easily than flu in spring/summer, and requires far more hospital intervention.

Yeah. From a distance, it's fascinating watching the academic / scientific community model and interpret data in real time as it's reported. The general public is getting a huge insight into how science works as a part of this.

Well, the "general public" would be if they actually stopped and paid attention to what was being presented and how they're reaching the conclusions they are

[Saint]

Jab Number 2 booked for Jun 19th - 7 weeks after jab 1.

[Saint]

And it looks like we're going to pass the 2/3rds mark of the vaccine delivery programme tomorrow. That'll be over 70 million doses delivered since December 8th, with supply being the only reason we haven't done better still

[Hal Jordan]

Had my second jab yesterday so I can now safely return to my pastime of rubbing myself up against people on public transport.

[Sandstorm]

Had my second jab yesterday so I can now safely return to my pastime of rubbing myself up against people on public transport.

Nice

[Hal Jordan]

Had my second jab yesterday so I can now safely return to my pastime of rubbing myself up against people on public transport.

Nice

I'm one of the unseen victims of lockdown.

[Slick]

Chin up, son. We’ve developed about a half dozen vaccines in less than 18 months that work! Covid also mutates slowly (so far) and I reckon that modified jabs/boosters will be easy to develop/deploy in future hot spots if required.

We just need to get everyone jabbed twice and then deal with the disease together

Blah blah blah, when can I go to Magaluf?

Thought you weren't allowed back in Magaluf after the last time.

That’s San Antonio, but it was close there

[fishfoodie]

The Copa America going ahead in Brazil

The superspreader event to end all events. Should be good for another 20,000 deaths across South America

[laurent]

The Copa America going ahead in Brazil

The superspreader event to end all events. Should be good for another 20,000 deaths across South America

Well the Bastard at the top there does not care.

[dpedin]

Looks like the new PHE data puts paid to any easing of lock down this month! It might also put might make any EU country reluctant to accept travel unless traveller has been fully vaccinated and they have increased their own vaccination levels?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-del ... s-12330068

The increase transmissibility and increase in resistant to vaccines pushes the level of vaccination required to achieve herd immunity even higher. It would be lunacy to ease lock down now given this data and the as yet not fully understood consequences of long covid in the younger unvaccinated community. My worry is with a known lunatic as PM ....

[tc27]

Times reporting a four week delay is being mooted.

[Raggs]

It also makes it clear that even being double vaccinated may not prevent death.

[Sandstorm]

Not surprised - sat in a beer garden last night watching a 50-something bird have a birthday party with about 30 friends of all ages. The 20-something girls (clearly too young to have had even 1 jab yet) were hugging and kissing all the older women like it was 2018 again.

[Paddington Bear]

Curtain twitching has been a growth industry during covid.

Got my first jab tomorrow - anecdotal but take up is near universal among my friends/acquaintances.