ASMO wrote: ↑Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:21 am
Perhaps the writing was on the wall from the first test and we just chose to ignore it. An undercooked Sprinbok side absolutely schooled the Lions in the first half before running out of steam in the second half, and still only losing by a few points. 1 week later, a fitter Sprinbok side absolutely strangled the life of out of the Lions who didnt fire a single shot.
What is clear is that Gatland's only tactic is to kick and hope, the Boks will eat that up all day long and do the same back with plenty to spare. If Gatland goes into the 3rd test using the same tacs, it will be an even worse beating for the Lions, i would rather they go down playing some rugby than by this sterile anti rugby shit they are putting out.
The dice need to be rolled and bigtime, Smith has to start, Russell for the good player that he is, is the wrong player for this game, the Boks are gonna come hard at home and he doesnt function well under that type of pressure, his go to is the kick pass, or the flat pass, and given the pressure the boks will be putting him under, guaranteed interception tries there, and the current batch of wings couldnt catch a cold.
Smith offers a running threat that none of then other 10's on tour do and i think that is the key to unlocking this Boks side.
The Lions could easily still win. But it's an odd one, if they get it wrong and fall behind they could also lose very badly, because they're not a real team really. They disintegrated badly in the second half because of that I think, the dirt was a symptom of that.
Wales are the NH side that have given the Boks the most issues in recent times. An all Wales back three of Williams/Adams/Reece-Zammit seems a no-brainier can't take many without much experience so I would take Reece-Zammit over Smith. It's dangerous picking a young guy without much experience like Smith at 10 for a crucial match like this, it could work out, but if it fails it could really hurt their career. Outside of the backthree the rest of the backline doesn't seem to have a huge variation in quality from what has been selected so far (not convinced there's a huge quality difference between Biggar and Farrell or Murray and Price).
The real changes that would improve this Lions side are in the pack, all this stuff about "physically dominate" and "massive pack" being the way to beat the Boks has been a myth for years. The All Blacks aren't huge oversized muscle men. A huge pack is not required to beat the Boks. The forwards the Lions should be selecting are fast and mobile that focus on the rugby (not the other nonsense) and that's the physical and mental attributes they really need beyond the skills (which Lions players should all have anyway). The crucial point is the mobility aspect (the mental aspect you can just get lucky and a dickhead will not be a dickhead for a day, you can't get lucky and be faster for a day). All the Bok players are fast or have big engines and cover a lot of ground, someone like Mostert at lock is not some hulking muscle man he just has a high work rate and covers ground, he just relentlessly plays rugby, Etzebeth is just a freak because he does that and actually is a large unit (he also seems like less of a dickhead these days, but he's nowhere near as mentally strong as Mostert).
So ... Curry and Lawes in the backrow (they've been the best Lions forwards because they fit the job description the best), the eightman I would go with Faletau but I don't know the players well enough to know if there's anyone better, Hamish Watson has done well on tour I don't know if he and Curry/Lawes cover enough positions to have them in the same backrow. At lock AWJ seems to be struggling to make an impact, if a player is a bit slower to the tackle/breakdown than another player would've been then they're a negative, if Itoje focuses on the rugby he's decent if he doesn't he loses all focus and is also a negative. In the second test both Lions locks were negatives. So at lock it's Henderson and if you don't want to take the risk on Itoje then Beirne. Frontrow I don't have many opinions other than Furlong hasn't really impressed me, Sinkler seems like the far better player but is also a dickhead so it comes down to if you want risk the better player who could also cost you the match on a bad day or not.
Obviously I hope the Lions don't do any of this and that the Boks can improve on the second test, get their accuracy/execution better and win more ascendancy earlier, making enough Lions players give up on the rugby and lose it mentally (so obviously I want all the morons to be picked again for the Lions, as that gives the best chance of that). Then pile on whatever points can be grabbed.