So, coronavirus...

[Calculon]

Ireland opening up the vaccination portal to 12-15 year olds next week; so that would mean that a significant number of all 2nd level students, will be able to be fully vaccinated before return to school.

Indications are the take up for 16-18 years olds has gone really well, so far; so hopefully next years school year, & exams here will be far less stressful; or at least, only as stressful as they previously been.

Hopefully this pushes JCVI to change its guidance for the UK before school starts.

We've only just opened up to 16+. It will be weeks if not more before they open up to 12+

You've bought over 400 million doses so might as well vaccinate everyone, despite the fact that there's no chance for herd immunity with the delta, and the extremely low risk to children from covid19

[dpedin]

Hopefully this pushes JCVI to change its guidance for the UK before school starts.

We've only just opened up to 16+. It will be weeks if not more before they open up to 12+

You've bought over 400 million doses so might as well vaccinate everyone, despite the fact that there's no chance for herd immunity with the delta, and the extremely low risk to children from covid19

I suspect jcvi are 'managing' expectations and trying to avoid demand exceeding supply? Whilst we have bought plenty there are still some supply issues so they are slowly expanding demand by recommendations for younger age groups in line with expected supply. I strongly suspect that as we vaccinate the 16+ age group then jcvi will adjust their recommendations to come into line with others ie US and EU.

[Saint]

Hopefully this pushes JCVI to change its guidance for the UK before school starts.

We've only just opened up to 16+. It will be weeks if not more before they open up to 12+

You've bought over 400 million doses so might as well vaccinate everyone, despite the fact that there's no chance for herd immunity with the delta, and the extremely low risk to children from covid19

Most of which don't exist and possibly never will.

[Calculon]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

[TheNatalShark]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Indeed, I'm old enough to remember earlier this year where the intransigent EU commission were blithering fools deliberately seeking the death of their own populations by looking for supply timeline garuantees from Novavax and Valneva, when they were obviously going to roar on and form integral parts of the UK rollout before end of July.

Interesting to read their doses will now possibly not exist.

The UK will get 100mm AZ, 100mm Pfizer, 17mm Moderna and very likely the full Novavax complement (at some point). Valneva & Sanofi *shrugs*. Over 50% existing/coming is an interesting definition of "most won't exist"

Worth noting that UK's order with CureVac is only for it's second/partnered generation vaccine. So not meaningful to count in UK's haul. Considering the 1st fully trialled gen is probably going back to the drawing board, it's definitely some time coming.

[Saint]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Anyone that claims to know is in cloud cuckoo. Regardless, the enormous bulk will be donated to Covax either way

[Sandstorm]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Anyone that claims to know is in cloud cuckoo. Regardless, the enormous bulk will be donated to Covax either way

Good luck getting those Clingon Saffers to say thank-you when they all get their Covax deliveries.

[Saint]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Anyone that claims to know is in cloud cuckoo. Regardless, the enormous bulk will be donated to Covax either way

Good luck getting those Clingon Saffers to say thank-you when they all get their Covax deliveries.

Who's looking for a thank you? Ultimately, vaccinating the world is in our own self interest

[Calculon]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Indeed, I'm old enough to remember earlier this year where the intransigent EU commission were blithering fools deliberately seeking the death of their own populations by looking for supply timeline garuantees from Novavax and Valneva, when they were obviously going to roar on and form integral parts of the UK rollout before end of July.

Interesting to read their doses will now possibly not exist.

The UK will get 100mm AZ, 100mm Pfizer, 17mm Moderna and very likely the full Novavax complement (at some point). Valneva & Sanofi *shrugs*. Over 50% existing/coming is an interesting definition of "most won't exist"

Worth noting that UK's order with CureVac is only for it's second/partnered generation vaccine. So not meaningful to count in UK's haul. Considering the 1st fully trialled gen is probably going back to the drawing board, it's definitely some time coming.

this is from the gov.uk site

Pfizer/BioNTech for 100 million doses – including the additional 60 million doses
Oxford/AstraZeneca for 100 million doses
Moderna for 17 million doses
Janssen for 30 million doses
Novavax for 60 million doses
Valneva for 100 million doses
GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur for 60 million doses
CureVac for 50 million doses

so I guess they should get their 30 million Janssen too, I also doubt that "most won't exist"

[Calculon]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Anyone that claims to know is in cloud cuckoo. Regardless, the enormous bulk will be donated to Covax either way

Good luck getting those Clingon Saffers to say thank-you when they all get their Covax deliveries.

SA has secured something like 100 million doses, including tens of millions of single shot Janssen ones. SA are also producing (blend, fill and finish) Janssens and will do the same for BioNtech/Pfizer soon enough. IIRC the aim is for 320 million Janssen to be produced in SA and distributed to the rest of Africa.

There hasn’t been a supply problem in SA since I would say at least end of June. What is slow is getting the jab in people’s arms. It seems, to me at least, that even in other developing countries supply shortages are quickly becoming less of a problem, rather administering the vaccine is the bottleneck in getting populations vaccinated.

[Saint]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Indeed, I'm old enough to remember earlier this year where the intransigent EU commission were blithering fools deliberately seeking the death of their own populations by looking for supply timeline garuantees from Novavax and Valneva, when they were obviously going to roar on and form integral parts of the UK rollout before end of July.

Interesting to read their doses will now possibly not exist.

The UK will get 100mm AZ, 100mm Pfizer, 17mm Moderna and very likely the full Novavax complement (at some point). Valneva & Sanofi *shrugs*. Over 50% existing/coming is an interesting definition of "most won't exist"

Worth noting that UK's order with CureVac is only for it's second/partnered generation vaccine. So not meaningful to count in UK's haul. Considering the 1st fully trialled gen is probably going back to the drawing board, it's definitely some time coming.

this is from the gov.uk site

Pfizer/BioNTech for 100 million doses – including the additional 60 million doses
Oxford/AstraZeneca for 100 million doses
Moderna for 17 million doses
Janssen for 30 million doses
Novavax for 60 million doses
Valneva for 100 million doses
GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur for 60 million doses
CureVac for 50 million doses

so I guess they should get their 30 million Janssen too, I also doubt that "most won't exist"

"possibly won't" thank you very much

[TheNatalShark]

"possibly won't" thank you very much

Assuming such comment is weighted equally, my critique directly quoted and then critiqued the possibly and most elements of the statement.

If you stand by the statement despite knowing it's figuratively as likely "as the sun will rise tomorrow" to be demonstrably false, well then on basis of good manners provided I will respond in turn by critiquing Calculon's equally flippant statement.

No interesting in faffing with lack of multiquote function.

"You've bought over 400 million doses so might as well vaccinate everyone, despite the fact that there's no chance for herd immunity with the delta, and the extremely low risk to children from covid19"


The UK, as with most other developed countries (barring Japan and Aus it seems) pursued a strategy of a diverse portfolio given the complexities and likelihoods of success. If you said even this time last year that we would have 4 already in use western made vaccines being produced in meaningful quantities hands would have been shaken off to agree to them. The developed world* purchased these portfolios with zero interest in oversupplying and sitting on them, and likely never thought even most would materialise. Even Kate Bingham, head of UK's procurement team, in late last year was quoted as saying it's likely the vaccines would only be used for the vulnerable and would very unlikely be available in quantities or efficacy for the general population in the near future.

Where vaccinations are completed and excess exists the excess quite simply will be donated, for selfish reasons as much as altruistic. As it is not all of these excess exist today, and some might not, and actually most western countries are running a comparatively lean ship when it comes to administering and dealing with excess.

It's points I've made before so won't be a surprise if someone cared to remember them.

*For the UK, given a Covax rep stated (Telegraph below for those inclined) that "most" of the UK's recent Covax donation are set to expire by end of Sep, that means these AZ have either been sitting in the production chain - if not outright serum finished, since April. (My own thoughts, but given there would be quality controls on production timeline I imagine these doses were very much at least at the full and finish stage to give the finished product shelf life of 6 months) So given it is in the UK's interest to donate vaccines or build up supply for booster jabs, we should be asking not general questions of 'what will UK do with 400mm doses'?, but what the fuck has gone so terribly wrong that we've been so inefficient in either getting these doses used back from April, and what the hell is the delay in either using them or allowing AZ to export and then backfill orders? Could we have maintained pace from March SII delivery to finish rollout in May/June? Was fill and finish the bottleneck, and AZ was afraid to send serum abroad and get seized? We won't know so long as we are secretive about supply, for which it is plainly obvious we have of AZ at the moment. Arguments about the need for secrecy to protect ourselves from those dastardly dirty Europeans launching vaccine wars no longer hold up to scrutiny.

In my opinion those are questions or responses that advance the UK's cause.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... xpire/amp/

[Saint]

Bored with this now. if you want to go and win the internet knock yourself out, but I can't be arsed

[TheNatalShark]

I think I can appreciate it must get boring getting called out on lies and xenophobia.

[Calculon]

Dumping your excess, soon to be expired vaccines on developing countries (and once your own population has been safely vaccinated) was never going to be an effective strategy. However, the alternative of supplying a small but steady supply from the near the start, and possibly even helping on the administration side was also never politically viable.

[Raggs]

Dumping your excess, soon to be expired vaccines on developing countries (and once your own population has been safely vaccinated) was never going to be an effective strategy. However, the alternative of supplying a small but steady supply from the near the start, and possibly even helping on the administration side was also never politically viable.

In terms of trying to avoid a vaccine resistant strain, you're better off doing as many people in a population at once, as possible. Spreading the vaccine across multiple populations, would lead to a slower uptake overall, and great exposure to repeated infection from different strains.

Think of it like taking antibiotics, the population needs to complete it's course, the longer it takes, the more chance of a resistant strain appearing.

Yes the whole world needs to be vaccinated, but in terms of generating specifically vaccine resistant strains, you need individual populations to be done as quickly as possible. That won't stop new strains in other countries, but it will reduce the chance of them being vaccine resistant.

[Calculon]

Yeah, the virus has become endemic, it’s going to have the rest of human existence to mutate to other variants

There’re also no individual isolated populations, even China with its ridiculously strict border controls\quarantine, and draconian internal controls are battling multiple outbreaks of the delta variant.

I also think the dangers of vaccine resistance has been completely oversold by the media. There’s only so much that the viral functional structure can mutate before it compromises the, well, functional part. Of course, all the current dominant variants emerged before vaccination started and as I’ve mentioned before, it is thought that they emerged in hospitals from patients with lengthy covid stays with accompanying lengthy treatments

Interestingly the delta variant has replaced the more vaccine resistant beta variant in South Africa

[fishfoodie]

It's incredible looking at the US again this summer, & seeing how little progress has been made in Southern Red States.

It's deja vu all over again; with ICU units full; & patients (now including children), having to be medivac'd to larger cities, & neighbouring States.

How stupid are these people ?

Between the US, & Oz; it's really an eye opener to what happens, even with a Federal / State system; where you'd hope that if one; or the other is vaguely competent; then the citizen is protected; but what were seeing is that in places like Florida, & Texas & Louisana; where shitgibbons followers are in control; their dogmatic lack of action is still killing people.

[FalseBayFC]

Why will they never exists? So of the 517 million purchased, how many will actually be manufactured?

Anyone that claims to know is in cloud cuckoo. Regardless, the enormous bulk will be donated to Covax either way

Good luck getting those Clingon Saffers to say thank-you when they all get their Covax deliveries.

They'll come too late if ever. We've already had our Pfizers thank you. And paid for them.

[dpedin]

Hearing that RSV concerns for young kids, <2, are growing for this winter. NHS getting ready for 2-3 times the usual numbers and expect the outbreak to happen earlier than normal. Already seen some early outbreaks this summer. Concerns over paeds ICU capacity and that primary care/emergency care may struggle as many parents concerned about covid seek medical advice. Along with expected increase in flu this is the last thing the NHS needs now.

[fishfoodie]

Ireland 12-15 vaccinations have just started, & there's 75,000 already registered; out of a eligible population of ~220,000 in that age group.

[Enzedder]

Bugger - we have our first community case in 170 days

Get ready for your phone to scream with the emergency alert Kiwis - Level 4 Lockdown from midnight
Too late = there it was

IMG-20210817-WA0003.jpg (89.67 KiB) Viewed 1533 times

[Calculon]

It's become like the flu

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/ ... /100366038

Hope everyone on here is vaccinated, had it, or both

[Raggs]

It's become like the flu

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/ ... /100366038

Hope everyone on here is vaccinated, had it, or both

He may not be wrong in saying that we won't be able to eradicate it, but if the quotes are done correctly (probably not), he's got it completely wrong that 90% of the UK has some form of immunity. That's of the 18+, which only makes up something like 75-80% of the population to begin with.

The fact that we do manage to suppress illnesses that require true 95%+ vaccination (except when pro-plaguers get their way), suggests that's still not out of reach. Especially with adapted booster jabs.

Eradication will be difficult, just as it is for measles etc, but if people aren't being stupid, it can be massively suppressed to become something that doesn't require life changing adaptations.

[Calculon]

At least for younger children they aren't much affected by covid and are poor spreaders of covid19 so it's not unreasonable to not include them in the figures. Also not sure if it is known how many have had covid since most would probably have been asymptotic.

Iceland, which has 93 per cent of the population 16 years of age or older vaccinated, reported 2,783 cases over the past 30 days — its largest wave since the pandemic began.

Yet Iceland has had no deaths for the past 30 days attributed to COVID

In addition to the Iceland example, Professor Cunningham pointed to a recent study from Singapore that showed the viral load of the Delta strain in an infected person's nose was similar for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people at diagnosis.

But, he said, the study showed viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals..

the delta variant is able to infect and spread amongst the vaccinated population, however since rates of hospitalisation is so low it doesn't require life changing alterations. Of course we're going to get new variants and updated vaccines which will change the dynamics but as it stands it doesn't look like it is going to be eradicated

[Sandstorm]

At least for younger children they aren't much affected by covid and are poor spreaders of covid19

Link please

[Biffer]

At least for younger children they aren't much affected by covid and are poor spreaders of covid19 so it's not unreasonable to not include them in the figures. Also not sure if it is known how many have had covid since most would probably have been asymptotic.

Yeah, but he can't talk about herd immunity by only looking at part of the herd.

[Raggs]

Children being poor spreaders was thought to be the case right at the beginning of this pandemic. I don't believe anyone is suggesting that's the case now, starting from the Kent variety. Still referring to that today is just incorrect and misleading.

[Calculon]

At least for younger children they aren't much affected by covid and are poor spreaders of covid19 so it's not unreasonable to not include them in the figures. Also not sure if it is known how many have had covid since most would probably have been asymptotic.

Yeah, but he can't talk about herd immunity by only looking at part of the herd.

I'm sure he is aware of the limitations of the data but would still by his conclusion

[Calculon]

Children being poor spreaders was thought to be the case right at the beginning of this pandemic. I don't believe anyone is suggesting that's the case now, starting from the Kent variety. Still referring to that today is just incorrect and misleading.

Fair enough, but maybe still poorer spreaders in general then, and tbf as adults get vaccinated and become infected the circulation might well change to become predominant in children

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/33/eabf9040

[Raggs]

Children being poor spreaders was thought to be the case right at the beginning of this pandemic. I don't believe anyone is suggesting that's the case now, starting from the Kent variety. Still referring to that today is just incorrect and misleading.

Poorer spreaders in general then, and tbf as adults get vaccinated and become infected the circulation might well change to become predominant in children

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/33/eabf9040

In 7 minutes you're telling me you found that article, read it, and understood it?

You understood that they explicitly state that if vaccinating/immunity after infection is long term, then children will be the most effected.

You understood that if immunity is lost after a year, it's a far more balanced curve (albeit that assumes there aren't constant boosters).

You understood that they've shown different countries have different contact balances between ages.

You understood that they've literally just taken a baseline R0 rate, and matched that up with the number of contacts, to work out the spread rate. Nothing to do with if kids spread it less etc.

You understood that the data for coronavirus's spread is from the start of the pandemic and I quote "We used daily confirmed cases in China (20) and extract mobility from the Baidu database (21) in the period of 1 January to 5 March 2020. "

They also used data from China during that period to determine mobility.

That they recognise that social distancing is in place (but don't make adjustments for kids not having a fecking clue when it comes to that).

They are relying on mortaility rates from a pilot study using data from China that only dates up until the 8th of Feb 2020!

Because nothing in that article says what you seem to be saying. And worse still, it's data is not only ancient, from a very different strain, it's from one of the countries that has the least reliable data.

Don't post fecking bullshit science articles at me and expect me to be just say "Oh, you're right."

[FalseBayFC]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... under-fire

“If Mr Morrison has had to resort to accessing vaccines intended for developing countries, he should be upfront about that,” Wong said. “Of course, if Mr Morrison had done his job last year and secured sufficient supplies, we wouldn’t be in this position.”

In June Hunt told reporters in Canberra that Australia would receive 500,000 doses of Pfizer from Covax “in coming weeks”.

On Tuesday the shadow health minister, Mark Butler, said it was “an indictment” on the Morrison government’s vaccine acquisition strategy that Australia had to “go begging and scraping” to a facility set up for the world’s poorest nations.

When this all began many Australian posters boasted proudly that they had secured enough vaccines to do their population many times over. They claimed it was because they had an efficient government that wasn't corrupt like South Africa's. How low they have fallen! Taking vaccines from the poorest of the poor. For shame.

[Calculon]

Children being poor spreaders was thought to be the case right at the beginning of this pandemic. I don't believe anyone is suggesting that's the case now, starting from the Kent variety. Still referring to that today is just incorrect and misleading.

Poorer spreaders in general then, and tbf as adults get vaccinated and become infected the circulation might well change to become predominant in children

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/33/eabf9040

You understood that they explicitly state that if vaccinating/immunity after infection is long term, then children will be the most effected.

Yeah, that's what I mean in saying as adults get vaccinated and get infected, and thus gain some measure of immunity, circulation might become predominant in children. Predominant will lead to affecting them more. Whatever your opinion of the study itself, that is quite a reasonable outcome that might happen.

[Raggs]

What study???

There was no study. They're creating a model.

Even that has nothing to do with how well children spread it, Which was your initial point.

[Calculon]

What study???

There was no study. They're creating a model.

Even that has nothing to do with how well children spread it, Which was your initial point.

English might be my second language but there is nothing wrong with referring to the article as a "study".

[Enzedder]

Good stuff - more companies like this down here please

Qantas mandates full Covid-19 vaccination for all its employees
Frontline staff must be inoculated by 15 November, with remainder of staff given until 31 March

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... 3R3sMeYnqY

[Insane_Homer]

UK: another 170 dead and not so much as a murmur

[Sandstorm]

UK: another 170 dead and not so much as a murmur

How many were already vaxed?

[Insane_Homer]

UK: another 170 dead and not so much as a murmur

How many were already vaxed?

No idea, it's not being reported and they don't give that breakdown. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Rinkals]

UK: another 170 dead and not so much as a murmur

How many were already vaxed?

No idea, it's not being reported and they don't give that breakdown. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

They actually need to.

If the figures confirm that the Jab is effective in reducing deaths, then that information needs to be known, as it should help people make up their minds to be vaccinated.

And, if they don't... well, that information also needs to be known.