So, coronavirus...

[Insane_Homer]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

[Wrinkles]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

[FalseBayFC]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

Kids have been back at school for ages now. And in areas like townships and informal settlements, kids probably have has as much social contact during their holidays as they do at school. Middle class kids don't play anymore in the street in "gangs" like we used to do. Remember the BMX tracks, arcade games at the tearoom etc.

[Insane_Homer]

Good to see positive cases down 14.8% and hospitalisations down 7.8% week on week.

Schools have been off for the holidays, you don't expect that number to hold, do you?

Cases have been falling steadily since the 21st October peak (ie. before schools broke-up).

Your 14.8% decline doesn't go back to the 21 Oct does it? it's for the last week.

It's a pity that the 7 day average deaths since 21 October has risen by 27.7%

[dpedin]

We have seen case numbers go up and down since middle of July - they seem to be fluctuating between 25k and 50k for the last 4 months with a number of peaks and troughs. Looking for a pattern over this period has been pretty pointless when you look back, we seem to be in a steady state. The 7 day rolling average for deaths - which is at c165 per day - has seen a gradual increase week on week which is pretty inevitable given the cumulative impact of the case numbers. Excess death rates per week are still well above the pre covid 5 year average. This is unsurprising and a reflection of the Gov strategy of allowing community transmission before we have vaccinated the levels required to control community transmission. I think as we move forward the key metric won't be cases but will be deaths due to covid and excess deaths.

The fluctuation of case numbers will reflect a whole range of things from reporting issues, local hotspots and spread (SW if England due to Immensa PCR scandal), schools being in/on holiday, impact of weather and driving folk indoors, major events, etc. I suspect we will see case numbers come down as less folk go to get tested if they have symptoms as they will probably be double/booster jabbed and will expect and have less serious illness and shrug it off as a cold/flu, etc.

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

Personally I find this an unbelievably high level of avoidable deaths that we should 'just live with', particularly given that we were the first country to roll out what are very effective vaccines and have a wide range of fairly unobtrusive PH mitigation measures that we know for certain if deployed by everyone would reduce community transmission - wearing masks, some social distancing, working from home where possible, meeting outdoors, etc.

Spanish flu had 3 major waves. Some might suggest we have had our 3 waves, other suggest we haven't but might be lucky and because of vaccines avoid a 3rd wave, I hope so but worry this winter might see another peak in deaths.

[Paddington Bear]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

[dpedin]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

[Paddington Bear]

Hopefully the impact of the booster jab will begin to show in death rates, the impact should kick in soon? However it seems the Gov and many in country have collectively come to a conclusion that c150 deaths a day, 1,050 a week or c55,000 per annum is an acceptable level of deaths from an avoidable disease? I say this as the lack of attention or concern this seems to attract would suggest folk are comfortable with this and it is the level at which we 'should just live with it'?

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

Is there any evidence that what you're suggesting is going to represent a major shift in cases?
Masks and ventilation help at the margins, absolutely, but Scotland for example as somewhere still much hotter on masks than England has had broadly comparable cases all year (with rises and falls at different intervals). Vaccine passports seem a bit unnecessary given our high levels of vaccination.
I'm not saying don't do these things, I'm suggesting they won't make the massive difference it's claimed they will. Cases are high because all businesses and schools are open. If you want to suppress the virus you have to close them. Anything else won't cause a meaningful shift and we should be realistic about that.

[Lemoentjie]

Very depressing Twitter thread of American parents virtue signalling their children wearing masks in places where they really don't need one...:



Maybe the most depressing:

[petej]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

[Lemoentjie]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

It's a country founded by English Puritans. The more you look, the more you see it.

[Biffer]

America is freaky. Also totally unnecessary to mask young children considering the risk of COVID to them. The jcvi calculations found the risk levels of COVID and the vaccine to be nearly the same in the 12-15 year olds.

Interesting difference in law - in the UK children are viewed as separate individuals with the right to make their own decisions, providing they are considered (in law if necessary) capable of doing so. So teenagers in the UK are entitled to make their own choice about being vaccinated. In the US, they're basically the property of their parents and have to do as is decided for them.

[dpedin]

It's a fair position to hold but it should come with the caveat that you need to define at what point you would say we should live with it, factoring in that limiting the spread of covid comes with it's own significant costs, both to wider health and the economy.

The problem is that we haven't seen any sensible Gov impact assessment of various PH mitigations. Indeed they haven't shared what their plans are, for example what the measures they are using to assess if Plan B needs to be implemented. However to date the Gov response to the covid19 pandemic has resulted in the worst economic impact of any of the G7 and would suggest they don't really know what they are doing. However I'm not sure wearing a mask indoors comes with a significant cost to the economy? I'm not sure improving ventilation indoors comes with a significant cost - opening doors and windows or buying portable HEPA ventilation for schools, colleges, workplaces is a significant cost? I'm not sure vaccine passport once implemented comes at a significant cost - parts of Europe seems to be surviving with it - mate just back from France who use it said their bars and restaurants were very busy. His NHS Scotland app was accepted there.

It's the virus itself that causes the health and economic costs and managing its spread and impact badly has a far higher cost to the country than what the Gov should have done and should be doing going forward. I'm not an epidemiologist but the current levels of deaths for an avoidable disease seems far too high to me. The problem is we have been hit by a novel disease and we don't really know an awful lot about it and its longer term health impacts. Rather than let it spread uncontrolled and keep our fingers crossed that long covid and related cases of cardiac, pulmonary, stroke, vascular type of issues go away we need to get it under control asap. We need to get covid case numbers down - using a combination of vaccination and PH mitigations - to a point to when our local PH teams can TT&T outbreaks and put in place local responses to control outbreaks. I would treat it more like measles rather than flu in the future - look at the GOv guidelines for managing measles outbreaks.

Is there any evidence that what you're suggesting is going to represent a major shift in cases?
Masks and ventilation help at the margins, absolutely, but Scotland for example as somewhere still much hotter on masks than England has had broadly comparable cases all year (with rises and falls at different intervals). Vaccine passports seem a bit unnecessary given our high levels of vaccination.
I'm not saying don't do these things, I'm suggesting they won't make the massive difference it's claimed they will. Cases are high because all businesses and schools are open. If you want to suppress the virus you have to close them. Anything else won't cause a meaningful shift and we should be realistic about that.

There is evidence that individually each of these things work in reducing transmission of covid - I can't be arsed going through all the evidence but you can google and find the peer reviewed papers. There are many. There is also some interesting research about mask wearing in the Spanish Flu epidemic in Canada that found that Calgary, which had a mask mandate had 2-3 times less cases and deaths than Edmonton which delayed implementing a mask mandate. (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 21.1891615) Whilst the virus are different and we can't use this as a direct like for like example it is a good case of the impact of a simple PH mitigation at a city/regional level.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that collectively simple proven PH mitigation will make a difference to covid rates nationally. However surely the decision should be based on caution and implement these pretty simple PH mitigations until it is proven otherwise and that they don't make a difference? The problem all along with our approach to covid has been to act too late and implement too slowly, by which time we have lost control of the community transmission rate. To repeat wearing masks, improved ventilation, socially distancing where possible, vaccine passports, etc is low cost and low hassle and has minimal impact on economy, etc. If we end up having to go into another lock down because we haven't taken action early enough that will be far, far more costly as we have already seen with the UK GDP and growth figures, the worst in the G7.

Vaccine passports - we have similar rates of vaccination than France and other European countries, indeed Israel who are reintroducing them has higher levels. However because of the Delta variant we need something in excess of 90% coverage before we even begin to approach 'herd immunity' levels. We can get there but it will need real effort and push from the Gov - we have done it with a range of other dangerous transmissible diseases like measles, mumps, rubella, polio, etc. The difficulty this time is we are having to vaccinate the whole pop from scratch but we are nearly there. Vaccine Passports are a tool to both prevent transmission and encourage those more reluctant to get vaccinated.

If we don't put in place vaccinations and PH mitigations we will struggle to get community transmission under control, we need both in place to get control and to minimise deaths over winter. I want to avoid a lock down as much as you do but we won't do that by doing nothing now! Cases are high because we are pretending the pandemic has finished and even the most basic PH mitigations have been ditched. We can get lower case rates and keep businesses and education open. However doing feck all apart from vaccinations, wishful thinking, ignoring a death toll of over 1,000 a week and wishing its gone will just lead us into another lock down.

[petej]

Dpedin, we aren't at stage of the pandemic where we would gain much by doing those things. The vaccines and the level of prior infections, and delta basically make it pretty much impossible to control. The vast majority who are now vaccinated and/or been infected show minimum symptoms or symptoms similar to a standard winter cold (symptom shift has been covered well by the Zoe COVID app group). We are not an immune naive population anymore. I would add that I was very much a zero (though I prefer minimum) COVID type while we waited for vaccines and treatments. We have vaccines and treatments (and variants) so my position has shifted. Noticeably new Zealand couldn't eradicate delta in a immune naive population where you get the more unique symptoms and are shifting to removing restrictions post vaccination.

[robmatic]

Dpedin, we aren't at stage of the pandemic where we would gain much by doing those things. The vaccines and the level of prior infections, and delta basically make it pretty much impossible to control. The vast majority who are now vaccinated and/or been infected show minimum symptoms or symptoms similar to a standard winter cold (symptom shift has been covered well by the Zoe COVID app group). We are not an immune naive population anymore. I would add that I was very much a zero (though I prefer minimum) COVID type while we waited for vaccines and treatments. We have vaccines and treatments (and variants) so my position has shifted. Noticeably new Zealand couldn't eradicate delta in a immune naive population where you get the more unique symptoms and are shifting to removing restrictions post vaccination.

Also worth noting that cases, hospital admissions and deaths are all trending down at the moment.

[salanya]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

[Sandstorm]

Frankly I find it amazing and shocking that not one medical person told Boris to “wear a mask or get the fuck out of here, mate”

[petej]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

The NHS will creak regardless it has been intentionally run down and operated using a lean methodology over the last 10 years which eliminated any excess capacity it might have had.

Lean this lean that and then management surprise when it falls over is boring. Times have moved on there is actually bugger all you can really cut. Really needs to be a management mentality shift. The stupid cost cutting corners I've seen as an engineer. Want to see funny cost cutting in aerospace go laugh at Boeing and the 737max and Rolls-Royce and the Trent 1000.

[salanya]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

The NHS will creak regardless it has been intentionally run down and operated using a lean methodology over the last 10 years which eliminated any excess capacity it might have had.

Lean this lean that and then management surprise when it falls over is boring. Times have moved on there is actually bugger all you can really cut. Really needs to be a management mentality shift. The stupid cost cutting corners I've seen as an engineer. Want to see funny cost cutting in aerospace go laugh at Boeing and the 737max and Rolls-Royce and the Trent 1000.

Totally agree that the NHS was creaking before the pandemic, and the cost cutting and government attitudes made that worse. And that's still forgetting the Brexit impact with the loss of a good number of staff.

The tiny problem is that most people rely on the NHS. And the further it's pushed, the costlier it'll be and the longer it will take to fix it (assuming the positive scenario in which that is the active intention). So tax payers will have worse healthcare whilst being the ones to pay more to even get it to stay afloat, nevermind fix it.
All a bit depressing.

[Tichtheid]

The last couple of post from petej and salaya echo what I hear from friends who work in the NHS from managerial roles to frontline ward care - the depressing thing is that the NHS is being treated like the utilities, underfund and run it down so that privatisation is seen as a necessary change in approach.

[dpedin]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

Agreed - covid is not like the flu! This is a dangerous comparison many make, whilst both are respiratory type illnesses with overlapping sets of symptoms, they are caused by very different viruses. Covid is currently 7 -10 times more deadly than flu and has a far higher incidence of ongoing long term health impacts on folk even those who have had mild infections. We have a vaccine for covid that is significantly more effective than the flu virus. We do not need to have covid circulating around our communities unchecked over winter and accept the death rates from an avoidable disease that we have. A better analogy or comparison for covid is measles and look how we have dealt with that - mass vaccination of all kids and responding to outbreaks - that usually occur when the vaccine rates drop below the target 95%. Whilst I think we all accept covid will become endemic in our society the way we get there is important and I am not sure why we think it is acceptable to let covid run unchecked before we get the levels of vaccination up to where they need to be. We need to push harder on vaccinations - boosters, kids and those eligible but yet still unvaccinated - and protect the rest of the population using some simple basic PH mitigations over the winter so that by spring we should see major improvements in case numbers, hospitalisations and death rates. Over 1,000 deaths a week plus long covid cases, as yet unrecorded officially, for me is too high a collateral damage for the lack of a sensible PH strategy and proper leadership.

[Tichtheid]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

Agreed - covid is not like the flu! This is a dangerous comparison many make, whilst both are respiratory type illnesses with overlapping sets of symptoms, they are caused by very different viruses. Covid is currently 7 -10 times more deadly than flu and has a far higher incidence of ongoing long term health impacts on folk even those who have had mild infections. We have a vaccine for covid that is significantly more effective than the flu virus. We do not need to have covid circulating around our communities unchecked over winter and accept the death rates from an avoidable disease that we have. A better analogy or comparison for covid is measles and look how we have dealt with that - mass vaccination of all kids and responding to outbreaks - that usually occur when the vaccine rates drop below the target 95%. Whilst I think we all accept covid will become endemic in our society the way we get there is important and I am not sure why we think it is acceptable to let covid run unchecked before we get the levels of vaccination up to where they need to be. We need to push harder on vaccinations - boosters, kids and those eligible but yet still unvaccinated - and protect the rest of the population using some simple basic PH mitigations over the winter so that by spring we should see major improvements in case numbers, hospitalisations and death rates. Over 1,000 deaths a week plus long covid cases, as yet unrecorded officially, for me is too high a collateral damage for the lack of a sensible PH strategy and proper leadership.

That Wakefield character has a lot to answer for, was there so much resistance to vaccination before that MMR stuff?

[dpedin]

There is still the concern that the NHS are creaking, and the extra Covid cases and hospitalisations - although thankfully fewer due to the vaccine - will impact on this further. And winter hasn't started yet. Just because we're not on 50k cases anymore, doesn't mean that 30k cases a day is neglible, nor is around 150 people dying of Covid each day on average.

The economy and social wellbeing have suffered and can't be sacrificed any longer, and we're definitely in a place where we don't need to panic about Covid anymore, but we should be taking it serious. I feel that the media are tired of the coverage (and it probably doesn't sell as much anymore), and the government know that any focus on Covid will remind people of the bad decisions they made throughout the pandemic, especially as the shine of the vaccines has dimmed now. But just because we don't see it anymore, doesn't mean that there aren't families losing loved ones way ahead of their time (mostly unvaccinated but also some vaccinated people, of all ages), but also doctors and nurses who have to work through the increased loads and have to delay other procedures etc.

There will be a point where we will have to live with Covid like we do with flu (assuming no further evil mutations), but it's not this side of winter. And even though the responsibility of behaving well to mitigate Covid now sits with people, the population do need reminding of the behaviours, the seriousness of Covid and the impact on wider society/the NHS. Politicians not wearing masks in a packed room with 200 people for example, or the PM not wearing a mask inside a hospital (I don't care if it was a corridor), is not setting the example to take Covid serious.

The NHS will creak regardless it has been intentionally run down and operated using a lean methodology over the last 10 years which eliminated any excess capacity it might have had.

Lean this lean that and then management surprise when it falls over is boring. Times have moved on there is actually bugger all you can really cut. Really needs to be a management mentality shift. The stupid cost cutting corners I've seen as an engineer. Want to see funny cost cutting in aerospace go laugh at Boeing and the 737max and Rolls-Royce and the Trent 1000.

Agreed - there has been a deliberate strategy to run down the NHS since 2010 and we now see the impact. Hospitals run most effectively and efficiently when they operate at c85% bed occupancy rates - many of our hospitals have been running at 95%+ and this leads to chaos and mayhem and more inefficient working and throughput. Unfortunately and even more worrying is the lack of investment in developing the workforce - the numbers of docs, nurses, midwifes, radiographers, physiologists, etc in training has been badly mismanaged and will take many years to resolve given the timescales to train these professionals. We cannot compete in the international labour market as we are becoming less attractive place to work and the market is very difficult anyway with severe shortages worldwide. The obvious Tory plan to expand the role of the private sector is also seriously flawed as they don't train these professional staff and will suffer the same difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff. They will clearly increase wages to attract and then pass on these additional costs to the state so we will end up with a smaller and more expensive overall service. If you can afford it you will be ok the rest ...

[petej]

Agreed - covid is not like the flu! This is a dangerous comparison many make, whilst both are respiratory type illnesses with overlapping sets of symptoms, they are caused by very different viruses. Covid is currently 7 -10 times more deadly than flu and has a far higher incidence of ongoing long term health impacts on folk even those who have had mild infections. We have a vaccine for covid that is significantly more effective than the flu virus. We do not need to have covid circulating around our communities unchecked over winter and accept the death rates from an avoidable disease that we have. A better analogy or comparison for covid is measles and look how we have dealt with that - mass vaccination of all kids and responding to outbreaks - that usually occur when the vaccine rates drop below the target 95%. Whilst I think we all accept covid will become endemic in our society the way we get there is important and I am not sure why we think it is acceptable to let covid run unchecked before we get the levels of vaccination up to where they need to be. We need to push harder on vaccinations - boosters, kids and those eligible but yet still unvaccinated - and protect the rest of the population using some simple basic PH mitigations over the winter so that by spring we should see major improvements in case numbers, hospitalisations and death rates. Over 1,000 deaths a week plus long covid cases, as yet unrecorded officially, for me is too high a collateral damage for the lack of a sensible PH strategy and proper leadership.

COVID is not like the flu. Far less nasty to the very young. Post vaccine and/or infection the risk is very comparable to flu for the adult population and not the multiples you state which applies to an immune naive population (and varies hugely with age). The reasons why young children haven't been vaccinated is because the vaccination is a greater risk to them than COVID (as the jcvi has published and stated).You should realise that the vaccinations which reduce the symptoms and get rid of the more unique symptoms would make COVID increasingly difficult to trace and control and delta has only made it harder. I've read the ONS antigen and antibody population prevalence studies when they are updated which give some really useful info. PHE also output some excellent reports this PHE scientist usually links them https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg.

The EU countries are going to have the same issues as us (we should swap out the lions for canaries) when heading towards an endemic state (look at Denmark and Germany recently). Denmark is in my opinion the country in the world that has managed covid most effectively.

One of the more interesting articles I've read in the last few months (in cell I think and annoyingly I can't find it) was on why only 4 coronaviruses (considering there are loads of them) are endemic in humans (prior to c19). Essentially, there isn't really space in which they can vary the spikes and how they infect to allow for more so they compete for their niche. So previously coronaviruses have likely been out competed and driven extinct.

FYI ONS have published data on long covid it was very reassuring as a parent of a young child.

[Calculon]

Will be in interesting to see if the coming northern hemisphere flu season is suppressed again due to , maybe viral interference with sarscov2, or possible reintroduction of mitigating measures.

From the perspective of someone living in my a country where only 20% of the population are fully vaccinated, and which is never going to reach the levels vaccinated seen in the UK, the idea that their vaccination levels are not where they need to be is kinda funny.

Fwiw, it seems to me some of the far eastern countries like south Korea , maybe Taiwan, Singapore etc have handled the pandemic the best

[Hal Jordan]

Have we done Aaron Rodgers being a lying twat, but getting a smaller fine from the NFL for his lies than Ceedee Lamb got for having his short untucked?

[dpedin]

Agreed - covid is not like the flu! This is a dangerous comparison many make, whilst both are respiratory type illnesses with overlapping sets of symptoms, they are caused by very different viruses. Covid is currently 7 -10 times more deadly than flu and has a far higher incidence of ongoing long term health impacts on folk even those who have had mild infections. We have a vaccine for covid that is significantly more effective than the flu virus. We do not need to have covid circulating around our communities unchecked over winter and accept the death rates from an avoidable disease that we have. A better analogy or comparison for covid is measles and look how we have dealt with that - mass vaccination of all kids and responding to outbreaks - that usually occur when the vaccine rates drop below the target 95%. Whilst I think we all accept covid will become endemic in our society the way we get there is important and I am not sure why we think it is acceptable to let covid run unchecked before we get the levels of vaccination up to where they need to be. We need to push harder on vaccinations - boosters, kids and those eligible but yet still unvaccinated - and protect the rest of the population using some simple basic PH mitigations over the winter so that by spring we should see major improvements in case numbers, hospitalisations and death rates. Over 1,000 deaths a week plus long covid cases, as yet unrecorded officially, for me is too high a collateral damage for the lack of a sensible PH strategy and proper leadership.

COVID is not like the flu. Far less nasty to the very young. Post vaccine and/or infection the risk is very comparable to flu for the adult population and not the multiples you state which applies to an immune naive population (and varies hugely with age). The reasons why young children haven't been vaccinated is because the vaccination is a greater risk to them than COVID (as the jcvi has published and stated).You should realise that the vaccinations which reduce the symptoms and get rid of the more unique symptoms would make COVID increasingly difficult to trace and control and delta has only made it harder. I've read the ONS antigen and antibody population prevalence studies when they are updated which give some really useful info. PHE also output some excellent reports this PHE scientist usually links them https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg.

The EU countries are going to have the same issues as us (we should swap out the lions for canaries) when heading towards an endemic state (look at Denmark and Germany recently). Denmark is in my opinion the country in the world that has managed covid most effectively.

One of the more interesting articles I've read in the last few months (in cell I think and annoyingly I can't find it) was on why only 4 coronaviruses (considering there are loads of them) are endemic in humans (prior to c19). Essentially, there isn't really space in which they can vary the spikes and how they infect to allow for more so they compete for their niche. So previously coronaviruses have likely been out competed and driven extinct.

FYI ONS have published data on long covid it was very reassuring as a parent of a young child.

https://www.uspharmacist.com/article/co ... -influenza

[tabascoboy]

My GP surgery ran out of flu vaccine now, have to wait minimum 3 weeks or pay to have it done through private service at a pharmacy

[petej]

The number of uncertainties in that study. Vaccination status of COVID patients is known IE not vaccinated and no prior infection. Is that a controlled variable in the flu data set. It is an observational study.

[dpedin]

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021 ... ccine.html

[dpedin]

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/sep/fir ... d-children

[salanya]

Aunty Beeb finger-pointing: 'look at all those Covid-infested Europeans, nothing to see here'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

They'd be very fair to question the increase in European cases, or report how those countries are trying to deal with it.

But to summarise by saying the UK is bucking the trend after having consistently high numbers for months, and yes, thankfully a slight dip in the last week or so, is beyond a rose-tinted glasses interpretation.
Interesting that there are no graphs on Covid casualties, because why would they want to report and investigate that?!

This country is doomed with the kind of politicians and media it has at the moment. It deserves better.

[Saint]

My GP surgery ran out of flu vaccine now, have to wait minimum 3 weeks or pay to have it done through private service at a pharmacy

If you qualify for free flu vaccine, you qualify, full stop. Doesn't matter If you get it from the surgery or from a private pharmacy - the pharmacy can claim frombyge NHS.

GPs SHOULD know this, but many conveniently "forget"

[Dragster]

Aunty Beeb finger-pointing: 'look at all those Covid-infested Europeans, nothing to see here'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

They'd be very fair to question the increase in European cases, or report how those countries are trying to deal with it.

But to summarise by saying the UK is bucking the trend after having consistently high numbers for months, and yes, thankfully a slight dip in the last week or so, is beyond a rose-tinted glasses interpretation.
Interesting that there are no graphs on Covid casualties, because why would they want to report and investigate that?!

This country is doomed with the kind of politicians and media it has at the moment. It deserves better.

Such a chronic bore.

[tabascoboy]

My GP surgery ran out of flu vaccine now, have to wait minimum 3 weeks or pay to have it done through private service at a pharmacy

If you qualify for free flu vaccine, you qualify, full stop. Doesn't matter If you get it from the surgery or from a private pharmacy - the pharmacy can claim frombyge NHS.

GPs SHOULD know this, but many conveniently "forget"

Hmm, Boots do offer the free NHS jab but local branch has no free time slots before 17 Dec! Next nearest branch has none before 5th Jan... Will check the independents too but not looking good.

[Saint]

My GP surgery ran out of flu vaccine now, have to wait minimum 3 weeks or pay to have it done through private service at a pharmacy

If you qualify for free flu vaccine, you qualify, full stop. Doesn't matter If you get it from the surgery or from a private pharmacy - the pharmacy can claim frombyge NHS.

GPs SHOULD know this, but many conveniently "forget"

Hmm, Boots do offer the free NHS jab but local branch has no free time slots before 17 Dec!

That's odd. A slot is a slot is a slot. The only difference should be if you need the elderly variant which is a different vaccine to the regular population, and has different supply chain issues.

Mrs Saintsman and I got ours at Boots on the first day of availability -- mine paid as I don't qualify for free, hers free as an NHS nurse. Just more paperwork for her to complete than me

[tabascoboy]

If you qualify for free flu vaccine, you qualify, full stop. Doesn't matter If you get it from the surgery or from a private pharmacy - the pharmacy can claim frombyge NHS.

GPs SHOULD know this, but many conveniently "forget"

Hmm, Boots do offer the free NHS jab but local branch has no free time slots before 17 Dec!

That's odd. A slot is a slot is a slot. The only difference should be if you need the elderly variant which is a different vaccine to the regular population, and has different supply chain issues.

Mrs Saintsman and I got ours at Boots on the first day of availability -- mine paid as I don't qualify for free, hers free as an NHS nurse. Just more paperwork for her to complete than me

Sorry, "free" was the wrong word - I should have said "available". Either the vaccine is suddenly in very short supply locally or they just aren't doing enough to keep up with demand

[salanya]

Aunty Beeb finger-pointing: 'look at all those Covid-infested Europeans, nothing to see here'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

They'd be very fair to question the increase in European cases, or report how those countries are trying to deal with it.

But to summarise by saying the UK is bucking the trend after having consistently high numbers for months, and yes, thankfully a slight dip in the last week or so, is beyond a rose-tinted glasses interpretation.
Interesting that there are no graphs on Covid casualties, because why would they want to report and investigate that?!

This country is doomed with the kind of politicians and media it has at the moment. It deserves better.

Such a chronic bore.

Whereas your posts are always so insightful.

[Saint]

Hmm, Boots do offer the free NHS jab but local branch has no free time slots before 17 Dec!

That's odd. A slot is a slot is a slot. The only difference should be if you need the elderly variant which is a different vaccine to the regular population, and has different supply chain issues.

Mrs Saintsman and I got ours at Boots on the first day of availability -- mine paid as I don't qualify for free, hers free as an NHS nurse. Just more paperwork for her to complete than me

Sorry, "free" was the wrong word - I should have said "available". Either the vaccine is suddenly in very short supply locally or they just aren't doing enough to keep up with demand

Supply is going to be an issue, but labour to deliver is also going to be an issue. It's a good sign that you're booking 3-4 weeks out as it means take up is very high -- but this isn't an area where you can just scale up delivery, as even if you could get more supply we're also delivering 300k+ Covid jabs

In an ordinary flu season district nurses will still be chasing up people to deliver the jab into late Jan.

[Enzedder]

Covid is now in 6 areas here (counting Auckland as 1). Today we went past 90% of the population 12+ with their first jab.

With a tinge of feafulness, I say release the kraken (or give 2 weeks notice)