So, coronavirus...

[Ymx]

But also yes I understood that …

Lat flows are positive for a short time (whilst you are infectious), and then go negative usually within 7 days.

PCR can stay positive for a couple of months.

But if both times lat flows are positive (6 weeks apart) then it’s certainly a re infection.

[CM11]

But also yes I understood that …

Lat flows are positive for a short time (whilst you are infectious), and then go negative usually within 7 days.

PCR can stay positive for a couple of months.

But if both times lat flows are positive (6 weeks apart) then it’s certainly a re infection.

PCR can stay positive but it doesn't always and I don't think it's the norm. JMK will confirm but the implication was that this person was being regularly tested with PCR and was negative in between.

[Biffer]

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Scotland reported on 16,208 new tests yesterday of which 21.3% were positive the highest rate since last Tuesday. Yesterday 27,243 tests were reported so a drop in test reported by 45%. 7 day average for positive reports was 19.4%. You have to go back over a year to find as low a number of tests reported. To me, unless this is a reporting hiccup which is a distinct possibility, it looks like there is a significant drop off in tests, and therefore cases, being reported which can't be explained completely by a drop in actual covid cases. I suspect most folk are not bothering to report on LFTs or even getting tested now? The impact of this is that number of cases is now a different measure - we are not comparing like with like now so any trend info is not worth looking at. Hospitalisations and deaths remain the key indicators.

1. There were no cases reported the previous day so its two days' figures
2. They are now reporting LFTs as well as PCRs where previously it was just PCR

[petej]

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Scotland reported on 16,208 new tests yesterday of which 21.3% were positive the highest rate since last Tuesday. Yesterday 27,243 tests were reported so a drop in test reported by 45%. 7 day average for positive reports was 19.4%. You have to go back over a year to find as low a number of tests reported. To me, unless this is a reporting hiccup which is a distinct possibility, it looks like there is a significant drop off in tests, and therefore cases, being reported which can't be explained completely by a drop in actual covid cases. I suspect most folk are not bothering to report on LFTs or even getting tested now? The impact of this is that number of cases is now a different measure - we are not comparing like with like now so any trend info is not worth looking at. Hospitalisations and deaths remain the key indicators.

1. There were no cases reported the previous day so its two days' figures
2. They are now reporting LFTs as well as PCRs where previously it was just PCR

I feel quite upbeat. Cases have fallen dramatically everywhere in the uk. In Wales from 16000 to 2500 while at the same time positivity from over 50% to about 30%. Hospital admissions have peaked, looks like hospital occupancy has peaked. Even people not reporting tests or getting tested is a good thing and a sign of recovery as who the hell wants to live in country where you have to be tested constantly and show a health pass.

[JM2K6]

Going to be very odd being able to have a normal conversation about covid on here!

Anyway, read this initially as a young child and was wondering about repeated tests but am I right to assume the reason for that was that she works in healthcare or some area with high exposure?

If it was a PCR test , it can remain positive for up to 12 weeks after infection, CDC recommends antigens test instead.

Tested negative repeatedly in-between. Looks like a genuine re-infection (presumably Delta then Omicron)

Unlikely, she's about five

[CM11]

OK. First impressions right. So antigen positive initially the second time and then confirmed by PCR?

Was reading only yesterday that reinfection with Omicron 4.5 times more likely. Couldn't quite make out if they meant previous variant to Omicron or Omicron twice. Think the former.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Just arrived in Thailand for a cycling holiday. First night had a drink with a girl whose holiday was 10 days in quarantine after a positive test on arrival. That's about as shite as it gets

Glad I didn't leave home for the week before travelling.

[dpedin]

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Scotland reported on 16,208 new tests yesterday of which 21.3% were positive the highest rate since last Tuesday. Yesterday 27,243 tests were reported so a drop in test reported by 45%. 7 day average for positive reports was 19.4%. You have to go back over a year to find as low a number of tests reported. To me, unless this is a reporting hiccup which is a distinct possibility, it looks like there is a significant drop off in tests, and therefore cases, being reported which can't be explained completely by a drop in actual covid cases. I suspect most folk are not bothering to report on LFTs or even getting tested now? The impact of this is that number of cases is now a different measure - we are not comparing like with like now so any trend info is not worth looking at. Hospitalisations and deaths remain the key indicators.

1. There were no cases reported the previous day so its two days' figures
2. They are now reporting LFTs as well as PCRs where previously it was just PCR

Not sure I get what you are meaning with point 1 above? I was using testing and new cases by date reported info. I know they are reporting LFTs as well as PCRs now however for me it looks like folk are not reporting their LFT outcome or even bothering to test now hence the low numbers. Testing and case numbers are now not comparable with previous data/trends due to change in testing requirements. I suspect folk have got the message that 'omicron is mild' and are ignoring symptoms and testing unless they require it to go somewhere or get into somewhere, otherwise why subject yourself to self isolation for nothing worse than a 'cold'?

[petej]

Going to be very odd being able to have a normal conversation about covid on here!

Anyway, read this initially as a young child and was wondering about repeated tests but am I right to assume the reason for that was that she works in healthcare or some area with high exposure?

Tested negative repeatedly in-between. Looks like a genuine re-infection (presumably Delta then Omicron)

Unlikely, she's about five

Child prodigy?

Zero COVID harsh on hamsters (and rabbits).
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... %27s-first

[C69]

Going to be very odd being able to have a normal conversation about covid on here!

Anyway, read this initially as a young child and was wondering about repeated tests but am I right to assume the reason for that was that she works in healthcare or some area with high exposure?

Unlikely, she's about five

Child prodigy?

Zero COVID harsh on hamsters (and rabbits).
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... %27s-first

Hmm and they also think Omicron may have come from mice.

[tc27]

UK unemployment back to pre Covid levels and job vacancies high. Looks like the economic scarring has being successfully minimised.



Massive intervention by the BoE so important - really shows the benefit of having those tools available in a crisis.

[tabascoboy]

RIP but hard to believe after all this time some still don't understand how serious this virus infection is

Hana Horka: Czech singer dies after catching Covid intentionally

A folk singer from the Czech Republic has died after deliberately catching Covid, her son has told the BBC. Hana Horka, 57, was unvaccinated and had posted on social media that she was recovering after testing positive, but died two days later.

Her son, Jan Rek, said she got infected on purpose when he and his father had the virus, so she could get a recovery pass to access certain venues.

The Czech Republic reported a record number of Covid-19 cases on Wednesday.

Mr Rek and his father, who are both fully vaccinated, both caught Covid over Christmas. But he said his mother had decided not to stay away from them, preferring instead to expose herself to the virus. "She should have isolated for a week because we tested positive. But she was with us the whole time," he said.

Proof of vaccination or recent infection from the virus is required in the Czech Republic to gain entry to many social and cultural venues, including cinemas, bars and cafes.

[Slick]

RIP but hard to believe after all this time some still don't understand how serious this virus infection is

Hana Horka: Czech singer dies after catching Covid intentionally

A folk singer from the Czech Republic has died after deliberately catching Covid, her son has told the BBC. Hana Horka, 57, was unvaccinated and had posted on social media that she was recovering after testing positive, but died two days later.

Her son, Jan Rek, said she got infected on purpose when he and his father had the virus, so she could get a recovery pass to access certain venues.

The Czech Republic reported a record number of Covid-19 cases on Wednesday.

Mr Rek and his father, who are both fully vaccinated, both caught Covid over Christmas. But he said his mother had decided not to stay away from them, preferring instead to expose herself to the virus. "She should have isolated for a week because we tested positive. But she was with us the whole time," he said.

Proof of vaccination or recent infection from the virus is required in the Czech Republic to gain entry to many social and cultural venues, including cinemas, bars and cafes.

Like Boris it seems. Free for all in England, woohoo!

[convoluted]

Sunbathe, occasional zinc, and wash your daily Ivermectin down with a cup of hemp protein.
And pop a Viagra if your nose gets runny.
Bulletproof.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ne ... hp&pc=U531

[TheNatalShark]

UK unemployment back to pre Covid levels and job vacancies high. Looks like the economic scarring has being successfully minimised.



Massive intervention by the BoE so important - really shows the benefit of having those tools available in a crisis.

One day the ONS and gov will stop using such bad PAYE data for job numbers, and we can have meaningful analysis of short term policy and event effects on employment numbers.

But it's not this day.

I note the average revisions down on initial data releases since last summer has been calc'd as circa 85k.

If we took the boasting of these announcements we'd have more people employed than people living in the UK by 2025.

[petej]

ONS couldn't wait till Friday so pre-released results.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... anuary2022

Screenshot_20220119-230343.png (178.48 KiB) Viewed 1218 times

[Rinkals]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

[Ymx]

Which ever way you slice it, the excess deaths went through the roof when covid arrived. It was completely unsustainable by leaving it fully open, the health service has drowned.

[Biffer]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

What this kind of thing demonstrates is our society's really poor understanding of death. I think the key question to ask someone who's pushing that line is what percentage of people they think die of one thing. Deaths, particularly in the elderly very often have a primary cause and several secondary causes. That's why death certificates are laid out the way they are. So to expect there to be tens of thousands of death certificates that only mention covid is fanciful. It'll often have exacerbated existing conditions or weakened the person so that other infections present as well. Doesn't mean there death wasn't due to covid.

And that's where the excess death numbers are important. Those numbers are the best reflection of the true impact.

[petej]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

Sweden did implement measures just less harsh ones but a lot of the reductions in movement enforced in other countries just happened in Sweden voluntarily. Comparisons between Sweden and countries like the UK and USA are daft considering differences in the welfare states, public health and health care. GB news is not a news source to be trusted. Make sure you check the original source (ONS) and understand what they were actually measuring. The solely from COVID is probably correct considering the number of people with co-morbidities but people can live with co-morbidities for a longtime. Excess deaths is a better measure.

[Lobby]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

Sweden did implement measures just less harsh ones but a lot of the reductions in movement enforced in other countries just happened in Sweden voluntarily. Comparisons between Sweden and countries like the UK and USA are daft considering differences in the welfare states, public health and health care. GB news is not a news source to be trusted. Make sure you check the original source (ONS) and understand what they were actually measuring. The solely from COVID is probably correct considering the number of people with co-morbidities but people can live with co-morbidities for a longtime. Excess deaths is a better measure.

This is correct. Sweden didn’t have enforced lockdowns, but took several other measures to protect public health. Large public gatherings were restricted and people were also advised to work from home and not to travel unnecessarily, so the overall effect from voluntary measures was similar.

Although death rates in Sweden are comparable with other European countries, they were much higher than in the other Nordic countries

[Farva]

The economist measures excess deaths in the UK as being in line with the official Covid figure.
That’s really important because as Petej says, people can live with comorbidities.
I have a comorbidity (low level high blood pressure) but I plan to live to 90.

[Uncle fester]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

I'm not sure you can really contest such material. The people spreading it are not going to be convinced otherwise and the people receptive to taking in such material, it's going to be difficult to convince them of the difference between real and pseudo-science.

[JM2K6]

Sikora really is a fucking grifter.

I see some of the other Great Barrington Declaration types went totally nutso over the last year. Gupta claiming that "repeated infection" is the only way forward if we want herd immunity was a real highlight. Bhattacharya is as anti-everything as ever, and was on Fox talking about how repeat boosters are bad for the immune system - ffs.

[Slick]

Sikora really is a fucking grifter.

I see some of the other Great Barrington Declaration types went totally nutso over the last year. Gupta claiming that "repeated infection" is the only way forward if we want herd immunity was a real highlight. Bhattacharya is as anti-everything as ever, and was on Fox talking about how repeat boosters are bad for the immune system - ffs.

What is their end game in this? They must know that they are being, at best, disingenuous. Sikora above must know about comorbidities and what that means to the argument. Is it just for publicity/ego?

[JM2K6]

Sikora really is a fucking grifter.

I see some of the other Great Barrington Declaration types went totally nutso over the last year. Gupta claiming that "repeated infection" is the only way forward if we want herd immunity was a real highlight. Bhattacharya is as anti-everything as ever, and was on Fox talking about how repeat boosters are bad for the immune system - ffs.

What is their end game in this? They must know that they are being, at best, disingenuous. Sikora above must know about comorbidities and what that means to the argument. Is it just for publicity/ego?

I'm sure someone's done a deep dive, but yeah, your choices are: some sort of uber-libertarian fanaticism / ego & publicity / money. Pick one or several!

[Rinkals]

I had this sent to me today.

As discussed on the GB News channel on 19/1/22 in an interview with Professor Karol Sikora, ex WHO Head of Cancer.

The UK Office for National Statistics has stated that to date there have been 17,371 UK deaths solely from Covid.

The average age of death from Covid was
82.5 years, which is over the average UK age of death generally.

On average 700,000 people die every year in the UK

The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

I'm not sure you can really contest such material. The people spreading it are not going to be convinced otherwise and the people receptive to taking in such material, it's going to be difficult to convince them of the difference between real and pseudo-science.

I know what you're saying, but I want to speak out against such misinformation.

I have already responded asking for context and clarification in line with Biffer's suggestion and have had others who had been silent speak up, so I think it's important that this sort of propaganda is challenged.

[Biffer]

I had this sent to me today.



The clear implication is that the pandemic had no effect and all measures (including vaccination) were unjustified.

How do I respond? Are the figures accurate?

As I understand it, Sweden did not implement any measures to protect their population, but I haven't heard anything on whether they were justified.

I suppose I should be looking this stuff up for myself, but there is so much shit out there and I wouldn't mind getting opinions from the bored.

I'm not sure you can really contest such material. The people spreading it are not going to be convinced otherwise and the people receptive to taking in such material, it's going to be difficult to convince them of the difference between real and pseudo-science.

I know what you're saying, but I want to speak out against such misinformation.

I have already responded asking for context and clarification in line with Biffer's suggestion and have had others who had been silent speak up, so I think it's important that this sort of propaganda is challenged.

It's important to not let it stand. The folk who send you this stuff will take silence as an indication that you agree or that you're a target to provide more misinfo to.

The other example to quote is HIV/AIDS. How many people die 'just of AIDS'? virtually no one. They die of other things that AIDS has made them vulnerable to. It's a really misinformed way to look at the effect of an illness.

[Rinkals]

Ta.

I shall use that going forward.

[Rinkals]

Here is the response.



Am I reading it right?

Does it say that 2020 had 118.5 more people per 1,000 died than 2019 (an increase of 11.85%)? But that in 2008 and prior to that the mortality rate was comparable, or even worse than in the pandemic?

[Edit - Thanks, Ymx]

[Ymx]

Here is the response.



Am I reading it right?

Does it say that 2020 had 118.5 more people per 1,000 died than 2019 (an increase of 11.85%)? But that in 2008 and prior to that the mortality rate was comparable, or even worse than in the pandemic?

Fixed img

[Wrinkles]

Here is the response.



Am I reading it right?

Does it say that 2020 had 118.5 more people per 1,000 died than 2019 (an increase of 11.85%)? But that in 2008 and prior to that the mortality rate was comparable, or even worse than in the pandemic?

[Edit - Thanks, Ymx]

118.5 per 100,000.

[Ymx]

Yes, that’s what it’s saying. It also takes age in to account.

I have to admit that is surprising and interesting.

Clearly though, there was a big uncharacteristic increase by 13% from 2019.

Our health service was not equipped to handle the increase in severe respiratory problems in those periods. Deaths were nearly 100% higher than norm!

Also, we did actually lock down! Over the year, what would these have looked like had we not and allowed that huge excess continue? The ASMR would have been one hell of a lot lot higher without the lock down intervention with that continuing. 1800 or perhaps even higher.



There’s no denying the April and end of year (/start of next year). Massive excess when it was relaxed. The excess above the dotted line.

[CM11]

Just shows how well we've done keeping people alive in the last 20 years. I know in Ireland we raised the life expectancy of our population by 6 years since 2000.

[Biffer]

So there's a couple of things there.

I'm not sure what they're trying to say that proves. That's an age standardised rate so doesn't translate directly to excess deaths.
It doesn't say anything about the previous point about solely from covid. The most obvious thing it suggests is that the pandemic death toll is the equivalent of all the life expectancy gains of medical improvements from new treatments and new drugs in the last ten to fifteen years.

[Rinkals]

Here is the response.



Am I reading it right?

Does it say that 2020 had 118.5 more people per 1,000 died than 2019 (an increase of 11.85%)? But that in 2008 and prior to that the mortality rate was comparable, or even worse than in the pandemic?

[Edit - Thanks, Ymx]

118.5 per 100,000.

Yes, sorry, typo.

[Slick]

Balls, it has entered the Slick household - 5 year old tested negative this morning, positive this evening.

He’s feeling a bit rough poor lad.

[Ymx]

Balls, it has entered the Slick household - 5 year old tested negative this morning, positive this evening.

He’s feeling a bit rough poor lad.

All the best with it mate, for you and family.

[Uncle fester]

Balls, it has entered the Slick household - 5 year old tested negative this morning, positive this evening.

He’s feeling a bit rough poor lad.

Going to be very hard not to catch it off him I'm afraid.

My Cork counterpart misunderstood the rules re isolation.
One of his boys tested positive on antigen last weekend. Didn't get antigen till Tuesday. His wife started feeling unwell on Tuesday but didn't get PCR until yesterday. He thought his other boys would come out of isolation today but he forgot that close contacts isolate for longer than the people who actually have COVID.

On top of that, his missus got her positive result today so the clock is reset for all of them.

Lesson is to get the PCR test quickly.

[Slick]

Balls, it has entered the Slick household - 5 year old tested negative this morning, positive this evening.

He’s feeling a bit rough poor lad.

All the best with it mate, for you and family.

Thanks mate