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Fangle
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Big Nipper wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:18 pm No I do not

People who say this "is just the flu" are part of the problem. They are the ones having big parties during lockdown, silently spreading the disease. They are the okes going into shops and refusing to wear masks and causing a massive fuss. No sympathy for their willful ignorance
You could say that without being insulting.
Big Nipper
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Fangle wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:22 pm
Big Nipper wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:18 pm No I do not

People who say this "is just the flu" are part of the problem. They are the ones having big parties during lockdown, silently spreading the disease. They are the okes going into shops and refusing to wear masks and causing a massive fuss. No sympathy for their willful ignorance
You could say that without being insulting.
Have you ever been on PR forum? Listen here bro, I started this thread, I make the rules.

Also I think these Covid deniers are complicit in the deaths of thousands of people, so if anything the insult was too kind
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Blake
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assfly wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:27 am Another good note is that as we come out of winter we should see the numbers start to drop further. But not so much good news if you're in the NH heading back into winter.
It's a tricky one. As far as I'm concerned, the USA (specifically Arizona, Texas and Florida) has proven definitively that absent of mask wearing, social distancing and hand washing, warm weather does very little, if anything, to reduce the spread of this virus.

It'll be great if it does infer some additional benefit, but I think it would be misguided to place too much stock in that myth.

Personally I'm actually expecting a second wave in Cape Town in a couple of weeks. It's basic human nature, but as our numbers go down, people are becoming more lax, taking some risks and letting their guard down. You can already see / feel it. It's inevitable really, but I also think we'll be much better prepared to go into a self imposed "soft lockdown" again should there be a local flare-up in Cape Town over December/January. I think these will become common occurrences and just a way of life until widespread vaccinations come into effect.
Amethyst

68000 people died of TB in SA in 2018 and about 10000 to 12000 annually of flu. This Corona will probably account for about 20000 deaths this year, so slightly more dangerous than the old common yearly flu. Totally overrated, efforts not worth the dire slump in our economy we are experiencing now because of inapt actions by government.. More people may actually die of hunger or conditions brought on by malnutrition. "die kospakkies gaan nie vir altyd hou nie"
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Chilli
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Sadly there are certain members of our society who are Corona denialists. The Government has 100% handled certain parts of the lockdown and that very very badly. All the fraud makes it seem as if the whole intention of the reaction to the virus was to pinch even more money.
If it were not for the hard lockdown I think that the death toll would be sky high.
Amethyst

Chilli wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:54 pm Sadly there are certain members of our society who are Corona denialists. The Government has 100% handled certain parts of the lockdown and that very very badly. All the fraud makes it seem as if the whole intention of the reaction to the virus was to pinch even more money.
If it were not for the hard lockdown I think that the death toll would be sky high.
Bullshit, shit handling of the situation throughout. There were several "science advisory councils" setup to help the government make informed decisions. Most of them were ignored.
Big Nipper
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Chilli wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:54 pm Sadly there are certain members of our society who are Corona denialists. The Government has 100% handled certain parts of the lockdown and that very very badly. All the fraud makes it seem as if the whole intention of the reaction to the virus was to pinch even more money.
If it were not for the hard lockdown I think that the death toll would be sky high.
Well said
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Blake
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:03 pm 68000 people died of TB in SA in 2018 and about 10000 to 12000 annually of flu. This Corona will probably account for about 20000 deaths this year, so slightly more dangerous than the old common yearly flu. Totally overrated, efforts not worth the dire slump in our economy we are experiencing now because of inapt actions by government.. More people may actually die of hunger or conditions brought on by malnutrition. "die kospakkies gaan nie vir altyd hou nie"
I find it astounding that 570k infections and 11k deaths IN SPITE OF some of the most severe and restrictive lockdowns in the world, doesn't terrify the Covid deniers / trolls.

The fact that you lot continue to compare "No Lockdown" infection and death rates of TB, Flu etc to "Lockdown" death rates for Covid19, is just proof of how dishonest you are being in this debate.

The reality is Influenza has an established R0 of 1.3 and a death rate of 0.1% with decades of data.
While the dataset for Covid19 is significantly smaller, it appears to have a case fatality rate of between 0.6%-1.7% and an R0 of between 2 and 3...some models even as high as 5.7!

So by any metric, if you are actually swayed by facts and data, COVID19 appears to be twice as contagious, and 6 times as fatal.
And, as mentioned, the fatality ratio shoots up when hospitals are overwhelmed. Hospitals barely have enough capacity to cope with a 30% increase in a bad flu season, let alone something that could generate twice the volume of patients ON TOP OF the normal flu intake.

I said it at the time, but the frustrating thing about lockdown is, the better it works, the more people like yourself would claim the whole thing was overhyped.
Amethyst

A mortality rate of 2% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA) is fuckall to be scared of. What percentage of the whole population will die of Corona this year? Neglectable man, storm in a teacup.
Big Nipper
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:09 pm A mortality rate of 2% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA) is fuckall to be scared of. What percentage of the whole population will die of Corona this year? Neglectable man, storm in a teacup.
Jesus Christ. Have a look at the massive leap in natural deaths compared to last year. What the hell could that be eh? Maybe a crazy lethal virus? We have had seriously tight lockdown in place, and a bucketload of people have still perished, and thousands will be left with debilitating effects to their lungs and heart even after recovery

You are a fool, and a danger to others
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Chilli
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:09 pm A mortality rate of 2% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA) is fuckall to be scared of. What percentage of the whole population will die of Corona this year? Neglectable man, storm in a teacup.
BL, do you wear a mask when you go out and sanitize your hands regularly? Do you encourage your family to do the same?
Big Nipper
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Chilli wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:45 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:09 pm A mortality rate of 2% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA) is fuckall to be scared of. What percentage of the whole population will die of Corona this year? Neglectable man, storm in a teacup.
BL, do you wear a mask when you go out and sanitize your hands regularly? Do you encourage your family to do the same?
R20 says BL was that oke in Clicks who refused to wear a mask
Amethyst

Wow, a mortality rate of 0.03% for the population as a whole. Guys, I'm shivering in my boots.
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Sards
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Big Nipper wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:35 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:09 pm A mortality rate of 2% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA) is fuckall to be scared of. What percentage of the whole population will die of Corona this year? Neglectable man, storm in a teacup.
Jesus Christ. Have a look at the massive leap in natural deaths compared to last year. What the hell could that be eh? Maybe a crazy lethal virus? We have had seriously tight lockdown in place, and a bucketload of people have still perished, and thousands will be left with debilitating effects to their lungs and heart even after recovery

You are a fool, and a danger to others
I have heard of more deaths from suicide and strokes than from Covid. The only Covid death I know of was a friend of a friend who knew someone
Amethyst

You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
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Sards
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
I agree with you. Sadly that will make you a target but thats the difference between the sheeple and us
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Blake
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
As with your University claim on the other thread, your opinions are not supported by facts.

I think I’m done engaging with your trolling. It’s not worth the effort. At least this forum is fairly hidden so the risk of your misinformation spreading from here and causing actual damage is limited.
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Chilli
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Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
As with your University claim on the other thread, your opinions are not supported by facts.

I think I’m done engaging with your trolling. It’s not worth the effort. At least this forum is fairly hidden so the risk of your misinformation spreading from here and causing actual damage is limited.
You are 100% right Blake. I made the mistake of lowering myself to his "level". I should not have fed the troll.

Did you notice how he didn't answer my question about wearing a mask and sanitizing hands?
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Blake
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He is just one of those fly-by-night trolls that have always popped up from time to time over the years. African Mike, EightEye etc. They eventually fizzle out and go away and sometimes come back like a bad herpes infection. Come to think of it I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a new incarnation of EightEye.

Pitty I haven’t seen Ox Wagon around here. He used to have good nose and good memory to sniff out old, recycled trolls.

I suppose characters like him and Sards are useful idiots to keep the forum ticking also and stimulate some discussion, but I always likened PR to a local pub. And as with any pub there are a few regular tossers I’ll politely greet and then ignore. I should just learn to do that on here as well. There are enough decent folks to have a civil and intelligent discussion with once you go sit outside and avoid the noise, so to speak.
Amethyst

Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
As with your University claim on the other thread, your opinions are not supported by facts.

I think I’m done engaging with your trolling. It’s not worth the effort. At least this forum is fairly hidden so the risk of your misinformation spreading from here and causing actual damage is limited.
Are you disagreeing with the above statement and if so why? I know the truth hurts sometimes boet but you need to embrace it.
Amethyst

Sards wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:08 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
I agree with you. Sadly that will make you a target but thats the difference between the sheeple and us
Fuck Sards you are right. They are throwing out their toys left, right and centre. I wanted to laugh but it's actually sad that the sheeple have lost all sense of logical thought. Totally brainwashed by the ANC and the media.
Lemoentjie
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We needed a lockdown, but it's been handled very badly in some cases (the profiteering from cigarettes, just to name one). We could have had a much better and longer lockdown if our public finances hadn't been destroyed after years of ANC corruption and fuck ups. Oom Cyril needs to hire a crack team advertising western countries to use SA as a manufacturing base, and to do this he needs a guarantee on property rights for all South Africans.
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Sards
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Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:53 pm
Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:04 pm You should only be afraid of a Corona-death if you are afraid of getting murdered in SA because the odds are about the same.
As with your University claim on the other thread, your opinions are not supported by facts.

I think I’m done engaging with your trolling. It’s not worth the effort. At least this forum is fairly hidden so the risk of your misinformation spreading from here and causing actual damage is limited.
listen to yourself....wtf
Amethyst

Lemoentjie wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:48 pm We needed a lockdown, but it's been handled very badly in some cases (the profiteering from cigarettes, just to name one). We could have had a much better and longer lockdown if our public finances hadn't been destroyed after years of ANC corruption and fuck ups. Oom Cyril needs to hire a crack team advertising western countries to use SA as a manufacturing base, and to do this he needs a guarantee on property rights for all South Africans.
Basically, a total lockdown is the only way to effectively "stop" spreading of the virus. A total lockdown would mean everyone stays just where they are, in their own homes and not leaving it for any reason. This can not be done for an extended period. Once, people leave their homes and interact with other people, the virus will spread and can only be "minimized" by wearing a mask and keeping social distancing (meaning the now famous 2 metre rule).
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Sards
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Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:20 pm I suppose characters like him and Sards are useful idiots to keep the forum ticking also and stimulate some discussion, but I always likened PR to a local pub. And as with any pub there are a few regular tossers I’ll politely greet and then ignore. I should just learn to do that on here as well. There are enough decent folks to have a civil and intelligent discussion with once you go sit outside and avoid the noise, so to speak.
Dude. You have a very high opinion of yourself. You are still young. I will give you that. Your cockhead is doing all the talking.
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Sards
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Amethyst wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:00 pm
Lemoentjie wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:48 pm We needed a lockdown, but it's been handled very badly in some cases (the profiteering from cigarettes, just to name one). We could have had a much better and longer lockdown if our public finances hadn't been destroyed after years of ANC corruption and fuck ups. Oom Cyril needs to hire a crack team advertising western countries to use SA as a manufacturing base, and to do this he needs a guarantee on property rights for all South Africans.
Basically, a total lockdown is the only way to effectively "stop" spreading of the virus. A total lockdown would mean everyone stays just where they are, in their own homes and not leaving it for any reason. This can not be done for an extended period. Once, people leave their homes and interact with other people, the virus will spread and can only be "minimized" by wearing a mask and keeping social distancing (meaning the now famous 2 metre rule).
" to live in fear is to not live at all . "
troglodyte
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Big Nipper wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:18 pm No I do not

People who say this "is just the flu" are part of the problem. They are the ones having big parties during lockdown, silently spreading the disease. They are the okes going into shops and refusing to wear masks and causing a massive fuss. No sympathy for their willful ignorance
We all know you can't just disagree. You have to throw a hissy fit and prove yourself morally superior to everybody else.

Now: I never said it's just the flu. I compared the death rate between the two, and opined that the mortality rate of C19 doesn't justify the 5 month lockdown which in turn caused massive economic damage.

I never had one party during this time, and didn't visit any family or friends. In fact, I haven't been able to see my adopted son since February due to cross provincial border travel not being allowed. Furthermore I self isolated on 2 occasions: first time when my brother was suspected of having C19 (I only returned to the office after his test was negative), and the second time was after one of my colleagues was tested positive. I stayed in self isolation for 8 days as prescribed by the doctor, and I was told that I may only stop isolating if I show no symptoms during those 8 days. During this second isolation period, I stayed in a seperates part of the house and didn't come within 5 metres from any of the people in the house.

I've never refused to wear a mask in public spaces. And I keep to safe distancing.

The only rule I broke was to continue smoking during the lockdown.

The point I'm making, is that a 5 month lockdown was completely unnecessary. The initial 3-5 weeks was not to stop the virus, but to get the medical facilities ready for the outbreak expected. The government, lead by Dr. Dlamini-Zuma, fucked this up. The hospitals still aren't where they're supposed to be. The lockdown was to prepare, not stop the virus. Go and listen to Ramaphosa's very first announcement of you don't believe me. Instead of preparing the hospitals, all they really managed to do was to double our unemployment figure and fuck up the economy even more than they have the last 26 years.

So please go and swear your mother, not me. I suspect she got rid of the baby and instead raised the afterbirth, which is how you became this vile creature.

.
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Fangle
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Trogs,

It is in the Rulez of the bored to attack the post, and not the poster. I can fully understand your retaliation. He showed terrible manners.
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Blake
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Sards wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:01 pm
Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:20 pm I suppose characters like him and Sards are useful idiots to keep the forum ticking also and stimulate some discussion, but I always likened PR to a local pub. And as with any pub there are a few regular tossers I’ll politely greet and then ignore. I should just learn to do that on here as well. There are enough decent folks to have a civil and intelligent discussion with once you go sit outside and avoid the noise, so to speak.
Dude. You have a very high opinion of yourself. You are still young. I will give you that. Your cockhead is doing all the talking.
I’m not the one arrogant enough to think I know better than the best epidemiologists and actuaries in the country that were advising the president on the need and duration of the lockdown.

Neither am I the one spouting bullshit opinions not backed up by any numbers or data whatsoever to support them.

:thumbup:
Green light echo
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Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:00 pm
Sards wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:01 pm
Blake wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:20 pm I suppose characters like him and Sards are useful idiots to keep the forum ticking also and stimulate some discussion, but I always likened PR to a local pub. And as with any pub there are a few regular tossers I’ll politely greet and then ignore. I should just learn to do that on here as well. There are enough decent folks to have a civil and intelligent discussion with once you go sit outside and avoid the noise, so to speak.
Dude. You have a very high opinion of yourself. You are still young. I will give you that. Your cockhead is doing all the talking.
I’m not the one arrogant enough to think I know better than the best epidemiologists and actuaries in the country that were advising the president on the need and duration of the lockdown.

Neither am I the one spouting bullshit opinions not backed up by any numbers or data whatsoever to support them.

:thumbup:
Mate. I wouldn't worry about them. They are the same people who still believed, even at the bitter end " yes just one more push, one more, and we will defeat the evil English". Totally deluded. You can't reason with them. Crackers :lol: :lol:
Big Nipper
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troglodyte wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:12 pm
Big Nipper wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:18 pm No I do not

People who say this "is just the flu" are part of the problem. They are the ones having big parties during lockdown, silently spreading the disease. They are the okes going into shops and refusing to wear masks and causing a massive fuss. No sympathy for their willful ignorance
We all know you can't just disagree. You have to throw a hissy fit and prove yourself morally superior to everybody else.

Now: I never said it's just the flu. I compared the death rate between the two, and opined that the mortality rate of C19 doesn't justify the 5 month lockdown which in turn caused massive economic damage.

I never had one party during this time, and didn't visit any family or friends. In fact, I haven't been able to see my adopted son since February due to cross provincial border travel not being allowed. Furthermore I self isolated on 2 occasions: first time when my brother was suspected of having C19 (I only returned to the office after his test was negative), and the second time was after one of my colleagues was tested positive. I stayed in self isolation for 8 days as prescribed by the doctor, and I was told that I may only stop isolating if I show no symptoms during those 8 days. During this second isolation period, I stayed in a seperates part of the house and didn't come within 5 metres from any of the people in the house.

I've never refused to wear a mask in public spaces. And I keep to safe distancing.

The only rule I broke was to continue smoking during the lockdown.

The point I'm making, is that a 5 month lockdown was completely unnecessary. The initial 3-5 weeks was not to stop the virus, but to get the medical facilities ready for the outbreak expected. The government, lead by Dr. Dlamini-Zuma, fucked this up. The hospitals still aren't where they're supposed to be. The lockdown was to prepare, not stop the virus. Go and listen to Ramaphosa's very first announcement of you don't believe me. Instead of preparing the hospitals, all they really managed to do was to double our unemployment figure and fuck up the economy even more than they have the last 26 years.

So please go and swear your mother, not me. I suspect she got rid of the baby and instead raised the afterbirth, which is how you became this vile creature.

.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Gets mad that I call him a cunt - proceeds to call me afterbirth

Good comeback there chap
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Chilli
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Between the beginning of May and the first week of August, there have been more than 33,000 excess deaths in South Africa. This is more than three times the number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths. Kathryn Cleary asked the experts what we do and do not know about what so many people are dying of.

Data released on Wednesday 12 August by the South African Medical Research Council’s (SAMRC) Burden of Disease Research Unit, suggests that parts of the country may have reached a peak in Covid-19 infections by the end of July, which could potentially signal a downturn in the country’s epidemic. Excess deaths – natural deaths that have occurred over and above what would be expected based on historical patterns – declined from the last week of July to the first week of August.

The tally of excess deaths between the beginning of May and the first week of August stood at 33,478, while reported Covid-19 deaths totalled nearly 9,000 on 4 August (the latest date covered in the excess deaths report). This leaves more than 24,000 deaths unaccounted for as of 4 August.

Cause unknown

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Professor Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the SAMRC’s Burden of Disease Research Unit, tells Spotlight that they do not yet know the medical causes of these deaths – or if they are related directly or indirectly to Covid-19.

Part of the problem is simply that information has not yet been captured.

When a person dies, a doctor must complete a death notification form showing the medical cause of death. Legally, if a doctor cannot confirm the cause of death, a post-mortem must be done (or can be requested by the family). This notification form is used by the family or their undertaker to register the death with the Department of Home Affairs (DHA), explains Bradshaw.

“Once DHA has completed the verification of the information, they send the forms to StatsSA to code and capture the cause of death information. The system is labour intensive and there is a backlog in the production of cause of death statistics. We have suggested to government that they fast-track the processing of such information to provide insight into the actual causes of death,” she says.

Using information from the National Population Register which is provided to Bradshaw and her colleagues on a weekly basis, the SAMRC’s weekly excess death reports are compiled to shed light on mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic. Their projections take into account persons who are not on the population register and deaths that may not have been registered with DHA. The projections also do not include data on deaths for children under the age of one as a result of birth registrations being put on hold during Level 5 of the lockdown.

Possible causes of death

While confirmed causes of these deaths are not yet known, Bradshaw says that the geographic time trend and age patterns of the excess deaths indicate that a high proportion of them are likely to be due to Covid-19. However, there is no way to be certain of this without further investigation.

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“The question is, is it due to Covid-19 directly, or due to indirect effects of the lockdown?” asks Professor Landon Myer, director and head of the School of Public Health and Family Medicine at the University of Cape Town.

“It’s almost certainly a mix of the two. It would be implausible to think that we are detecting every death caused by SARS-CoV-2, but it’s not clear to me that all deaths with SARS-CoV-2 detected are deaths due to SARS-CoV-2.

“I might die of some other cause that was going to kill me regardless, but I happened to have SARS-CoV-2 at the time, and I might be classified as a Covid-19 death,” explains Myer.

“Conversely, I might die of something where SARS-CoV-2 itself was not the underlying cause, but instead part of the cause was the response to Covid-19 indirectly. [For example] you have limited access to primary healthcare services or economic hardship. I don’t know that anyone, anywhere in the world has a really good handle on these different things.”

Myer argues that the indirect effects of the lockdown on mortality could be significant. This could be because of the negative effects on access to healthcare services such as clinics or acute care services, or changes in health-seeking behaviours of people requiring healthcare.

“I think that the number of different ways that you could die from reduced access to health services is massive. The different routes to death are considerable and it’s not just HIV, TB or [lack of] vaccinations. It’s all those things put together. But the actual data to say that, to my knowledge, is incredibly limited,” he says.

Acute rather than chronic

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Looking deeper, Myer says that the causes behind some of these excess deaths could be acute health issues, such as a heart attack, stroke or acute asthmatic attack.

While deaths related to HIV, diabetes or other chronic diseases cannot be ruled out, these deaths might take more than a few weeks to reflect in excess death statistics.

“We’ve seen this increase in excess deaths within weeks. But, generally, if you’re living with HIV and on ARVs and you’re relatively healthy, and you stop taking your ARVs, it could be months to years before you die. Certainly not weeks,” says Myer.

With TB, defaulting on treatment may be associated with mortality, but whether that would routinely be within weeks is not clear.

“In common chronic conditions like diabetes or hypertension, relatively few people will die suddenly if they default their treatment because these are, by definition, chronic diseases. Their course is slow, so the rapid increases in excess deaths we are seeing with Covid-19 seem unlikely to be attributable to patients with these chronic conditions defaulting care,” he says.

A modelling study published in the medical journal Lancet Global Health last month projected that deaths due to HIV, TB and malaria in lower to middle-income countries could dramatically increase due to the pandemic’s effect on care and prevention services over the next five years, meaning that the death toll from these diseases could equate to or surpass that of Covid-19. Commenting on the study, Myer says that while South Africa’s HIV and TB epidemics are of critical concern, the current excess death figures may not yet reflect the potential mortality increase as a result of the impact on care services for these two diseases for the next few years.

Not seeking care

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Bradshaw notes that the excess deaths may be linked to people not presenting at primary healthcare facilities due to fear of Covid-19 or other anxieties, and a potential for deaths due to chronic or acute conditions unrelated to the virus.

“[We] are exploring whether it is possible to work with the Department of Health to evaluate mortality trends of the patients who are being treated for selected chronic conditions,” she says.

When asked about the status of those defaulting on treatment during lockdown and the implications for excess deaths, the director for TB, HIV and DR-TB in the health department, Dr Norbert Ndjeka, could not provide Spotlight with any answers.

Ndjeka, however, provided data that shows a severe drop in the number of drug-resistant TB cases that are being detected. In June last year, 753 new cases of DR-TB were reported. In June this year, only 284 were reported.

Determining the possible causes of death

To further investigate the causes of these excess deaths, Bradshaw says they are exploring the possibility of combining data sources to get a better assessment of Covid-19 related deaths.

“We are in discussion with the National Institute for Infectious Disease and the National Department of Health about how we can link data sources to get a more accurate set of information. Secondly, we think that there may be scope to use a verbal autopsy interview with the next of kin to get information about the disease progression that their loved one experienced,” she says.

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Adding to this, Myer says that post-mortem studies could be useful, looking at excess mortality in populations that would typically not be as severely affected by Covid-19, such as children and young persons.

“If it’s directly Covid-19 related, we expect excess deaths to be taking place at older ages. We do not expect that kind of excess deaths or a high number of excess deaths at younger ages,” he says.

Not just in South Africa

While South Africa’s 33,000 excess deaths so far may seem like a lot, the country’s situation is not unique. Reporting by The New York Times suggests that by the end of July, globally, there were over 161,000 Covid-19 deaths unaccounted for in official death numbers. A Financial Times analysis previously estimated that globally Covid-19 deaths may be around 60% higher than the reported numbers – with wide variation between countries.

“Another issue is that we do not really understand what’s going on with Covid-19 in the population generally,” says Myer. “Could there be much more Covid-19 in South Africa than we think, such that our reported cases are not necessarily accurate? If that was the case, maybe our excess deaths are not excess and [are in line] with the epidemic, except the epidemic is much more extensive than we think.”

“We’re fed these numbers every day, and interpreting these [numbers] on a day-to-day basis [is] distracting us from the broader trends and from the information that we don’t know, to fill out the picture,” he says.

“The bits of the picture that we can see are getting updated every day, but we’re never thinking about the bits of the picture that we can’t see at all.” DM/MC

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It is just a bit of flu Donald.
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Blake
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I read that this morning. This is the annoying bit:
“The question is, is it due to Covid-19 directly, or due to indirect effects of the lockdown?” asks Professor Landon Myer, director and head of the School of Public Health and Family Medicine at the University of Cape Town.
Since nobody knows definitively, people apply their own biases, to suit their preconceived ideas.
  • Anti-Lockdown Covid Denialists will say it is due to other illnesses and proves how damaging lockdown really was
  • Pro-Lockdown Covid "Sheeple" will say is clear proof of how deadly Covid19 really is and how necessary lockdown really was
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Amethyst

In Afrikaans we have a saying: "gogga maak vir baba bang"
Pole
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Looks like Amethyst and Sards are going for the dumb and dumber title.. I trust that in the event you get covid and need a respirator you will waive the opportunity
Amethyst

Lets forget all the "confusion" of the SA statistics and look at the USA as an example (a country where lockdown has been relatively lax). Their mortality rate is 3,3% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA). Again, that equates to almost fuckall of their total population. The sheeple who are driving this virus as being a deadly monster are really milking the cow to a point of collapse.
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Sandstorm
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Weird how Sards was dead against any kind of lockdown. Then he started a take-away business to take advantage of the lockdown. Now he’s moaning about lack of economic opportunities.
Big Nipper
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Sandstorm wrote: Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:58 am Weird how Sards was dead against any kind of lockdown. Then he started a take-away business to take advantage of the lockdown. Now he’s moaning about lack of economic opportunities.
A true flip flopper - such dedication to his craft
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Blake
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Amethyst wrote: Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:42 am Lets forget all the "confusion" of the SA statistics and look at the USA as an example (a country where lockdown has been relatively lax). Their mortality rate is 3,3% (OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONA). Again, that equates to almost fuckall of their total population. The sheeple who are driving this virus as being a deadly monster are really milking the cow to a point of collapse.
Finally some numbers from you!

To think only 1.5% of their population has tested positive and they have already filled at least 170,000 coffins. Similar to us, they are also a spike in other mortality stats that is unexplained, so the academics suspect the true death toll is over 200,000.

Imagine the death toll when that number creeps to 5%...10%...

The only real unknown at this point is:
- What causes some people to be asymptomatic?
- How many people in a given population has that trait?

Only once those data-points are known and added to the equation, will we know if are over the worst or if we are just getting started.
Amethyst

Just heard over the radio that stats show that the percentage of people that could not afford to buy their daily food has increased from 25% to 47% since lockdown, nearly a 100% increase. So now, thanks to the ANC, we have a massisve humanitarian crisis on our hands and PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DIE OF HUNGER or at least because of malnutrition. Put that in your pipe and smoke it sheeple.
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