The Scottish Politics Thread

[Northern Lights]

John Swinney’s ‘safe hands’ have often dropped ball
The education secretary is well liked and widely admired but his record in government does not stand up to scrutiny

Kenny Farquharson
Wednesday August 12 2020, 12.01am, The Times
When John Swinney was still in his twenties and working as a strategist for Scottish Amicable I wrote a newspaper profile predicting he would someday be leader of the SNP. I described a man who was something of an anomaly within his own party, with his sober professionalism, his Powerpoint slides and his Charles Rennie Mackintosh silver cufflinks. The pre-modern SNP was more accustomed to bloodcurdling invocations of Bruce and Wallace than Mr Swinney’s management-speak.

Yet the SNP came to love him. There was something deeply reassuring about Mr Swinney. No one doubted his passion for independence but this nice young man from the leafier parts of west Edinburgh made it all sound so reasonable. Even then he attracted the description that has chorused his political career in the past three decades, as “a safe pair of hands”.

Well, no more. Those supposedly safe hands were holding the dreams of a generation of school pupils whose education was disrupted by the Covid-19 crisis. And those dreams slipped through his fingers.

Competence is a word that can sound like faint praise but it is the gold standard of government. Both Mr Swinney and the SNP administration as a whole have seriously damaged their reputation for competence. And this has prompted a reappraisal of the deputy first minister’s record in power.

At times Mr Swinney’s strength as a minister has sometimes seemed to be his tone and tenor rather than the quality of his actual decision-making. He looks the part. He has poise. And yet the exams debacle is not his first mistake. In 13 years in government Mr Swinney has made a number of missteps, which taken together paint a seriously unflattering picture of his performance in government.


Five examples spring to mind.

The first came at the very start of Mr Swinney’s nine years as finance secretary. The SNP victory in 2007 was due in large part to a promise to scrap council tax, which was widely loathed. Yet when the favoured replacement — a local income tax — failed to win parliamentary support Mr Swinney was unwilling to make the compromises necessary to agree a Plan B. Thirteen years later the council tax remains unscrapped, its iniquities intact, a promise broken. To my mind there has been no bigger betrayal of public trust in the devolution era.

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The second failure was connected to the first. Unwilling to scrap council tax, the SNP instead froze it. This was pure populism. And yet the consequences were serious and far-reaching. The freeze was much more generous to wealthy Scots than to poorer Scots, making it a bung to the middle classes. And as part of his deal with local councils Mr Swinney removed many of the restrictions on how local authorities could spend their money from central government. The result was a mess: a regressive tax policy that left councils unable to raise sufficient funds for frontline services, while the Scottish government was unable to enforce its own policies in key areas such as education.

Mr Swinney’s third misstep was a lack of vision. Nicola Sturgeon appointed him to be the SNP’s lead negotiator on the Smith Commission, set up after the 2014 independence referendum. This was a huge opportunity. Mr Swinney had the chance to come up with a bold new blueprint for Holyrood’s powers and a stronger, more coherent, more secure devolution settlement.

The trouble was that Mr Swinney was not a devolutionist. His goal was not to make the UK work better, it was to break it up. So he went on a supermarket sweep, bagging as many random powers as he could. This produced an incoherent hotch-potch of financial powers, the cost of which has been counted in every Scottish budget since.

The fourth misstep was one of unnecessary caution. In the last Holyrood election campaign, in 2016, the SNP fought on a terribly cautious manifesto. New tax powers would be barely touched. This was Mr Swinney’s doing. In campaign debates Ms Sturgeon looked uncomfortable defending her own tax policy, especially when Labour proposed an income tax rise for the wealthiest Scots. On election day the SNP lost its majority. Ms Sturgeon ordered a review of tax policy and Mr Swinney’s caution was overruled. But the damage had been done.

The fifth area where Mr Swinney has not covered himself in glory is his three years as education secretary. This began with eye-catching promises to devolve power to head teachers to give them greater control. Little of what was promised has been achieved and last year Mr Swinney ditched his proposed education bill. His reforms were bogged down in arcane arguments about governance and he had failed to overcome the resistance of the EIS, the powerful teachers’ union.

A failure to compromise. A failure of judgment. A failure of vision. A failure to be bold. A failure of grip. And now, a failure of fairness. It is quite a list.

On a personal level you will not find a more popular politician at Holyrood. Among colleagues, opponents, parliamentary officials and the media, Mr Swinney’s decency and humility are admired. His equanimity is impressive given the challenges of family life: his wife, the BBC journalist Elizabeth Quigley, has multiple sclerosis and has been shielding during lockdown. The end of an earlier marriage saw lurid details on tabloid front pages.

Throughout, Mr Swinney has conducted himself with a degree of grace that is regrettably not common in politics. Personal goodwill probably won him some political wriggle room in the past. It could not and should not protect him now. This is a scandal where the hopes of young Scots, especially those in challenging schools, were sacrificed to protect a flawed system.

A government u-turn yesterday should ensure no pupil has to pay the price for Mr Swinney taking his eye off the ball. Whether Ms Sturgeon can now regard him as an asset as she heads into an election campaign must surely be in doubt. An autumn reshuffle seems likely.

The SNP slogan in the 2016 Holyrood election was three words: “Record. Team. Vision.” This has not fared well. The record is blemished. The team’s star performer has blundered. And as for the vision, the first minister stands accused, by her own side, of not having one. Changed days.

[Jock42]

Mediocrity is what Scotland now aspires to and that won’t change until we change the actors in charge.

Completely. It infuriates me when mentioning the state of the NHS youre usually met with the argument that its better than in England.


Back to schools. Don't have kids and its been a couple of years since I left school but are the prelims not meant to determine what grades you would have had if something unforseen disrupts the exam proper? Why has that not happened?

I also think this is an opportunity to move away from one off exams determining someones future. Course work graded over the year is more appropriate imo.

[sockwithaticket]

Mediocrity is what Scotland now aspires to and that won’t change until we change the actors in charge.

Completely. It infuriates me when mentioning the state of the NHS youre usually met with the argument that its better than in England.


Back to schools. Don't have kids and its been a couple of years since I left school but are the prelims not meant to determine what grades you would have had if something unforseen disrupts the exam proper? Why has that not happened?

I also think this is an opportunity to move away from one off exams determining someones future. Course work graded over the year is more appropriate imo.

100% there is so much that goes into whether someone doe well in an exam on a particular day. I always got brilliant marks for coursework where I could take my time (at uni too) to craft something, but in exams I don't think I ever finished an essay I started in part because I was a slow writer but not slow enough to get extra time. Thankfully I was at school when coursework was more prevalent and it very often helped keep my grades high.

Coursework also more closely replicates how many will be expected to work once they leave school than exams. Which feeds into what is school actually for? Preparation for life afterwards is part of that equation.

[robmatic]

Mediocrity is what Scotland now aspires to and that won’t change until we change the actors in charge.

Completely. It infuriates me when mentioning the state of the NHS youre usually met with the argument that its better than in England.


Back to schools. Don't have kids and its been a couple of years since I left school but are the prelims not meant to determine what grades you would have had if something unforseen disrupts the exam proper? Why has that not happened?

I also think this is an opportunity to move away from one off exams determining someones future. Course work graded over the year is more appropriate imo.

100% there is so much that goes into whether someone doe well in an exam on a particular day. I always got brilliant marks for coursework where I could take my time (at uni too) to craft something, but in exams I don't think I ever finished an essay I started in part because I was a slow writer but not slow enough to get extra time. Thankfully I was at school when coursework was more prevalent and it very often helped keep my grades high.

Coursework also more closely replicates how many will be expected to work once they leave school than exams. Which feeds into what is school actually for? Preparation for life afterwards is part of that equation.

I am somewhat sympathetic as despite generally being good at exams at school I completely bombed A-Level Maths and got a D in the final exam instead of the predicted A.

However, one drawback of being wholly reliant on coursework is that there is a really obvious way for better off parents to buy their child's way into a good university. It's trivially easy to purchase essays etc online now and there is still the option of the private tutor who can help with the work for the more traditionally minded.

[Slick]

This year's exams were always going to have an asterisk. They've made a right dog's breakfast of it and no mistake.

But guess what? They admitted it.

Maybe Swinney should step down, he seems like a bit of a liability. However the willingness to admit to mistakes directly to the public is exactly why I will be voting for them.

fucking hell.

Assuming that all politicians make mistakes, which I’m pretty sure is a valid assumption, are you saying you’d rather vote for someone who either denied they’d made a mistake when it was blatantly obvious that they had, or was completely incapable of recognising they’d made a mistake instead?

I hope you dashed that post off whilst having a shite this morning because it’s pretty puerile.

For a start I’m not sure I count the last few days as an apology, more an embarrassing climb down.

If this is a pattern we should be grateful for where are our apologies for other fuck ups? Let’s stick with education, where is our apology for the declining standards (PISA Etc)? After all, as Nicola said, this was her priority. Given there hasn’t been one, and it’s a far more important issue than this years grades, maybe we can just put this “apology“ down to political expediency, like every other party.

[Yr Alban]

This year's exams were always going to have an asterisk. They've made a right dog's breakfast of it and no mistake.

But guess what? They admitted it.

Maybe Swinney should step down, he seems like a bit of a liability. However the willingness to admit to mistakes directly to the public is exactly why I will be voting for them.

fucking hell.

This is a pretty common theme for those that support the SNP. They now want to vote for them because they admit to their fuck ups. The fact the fuck ups keep happening is irrelevant it would seem.

The other cry is well the rest are no better or are worse. How do we know that when they haven’t had a shot at running things for 13 years. The snp got in because the country was sick of the Labour efforts who had become stale and fresh out of ideas.

Education is in decline, has been for a while now but it is just a shambles now. They love to criticise Westminster but there is simply no way Swinney would still be a government minister with his numerous fuck ups if he served down south.

Mediocrity is what Scotland now aspires to and that won’t change until we change the actors in charge.

I do find it desperately disappointing that a smart guy like Smutley would vote for this shower and not want better.

You’ve come out with some proper shite in the past, NL, but this one knocks it out of the park. Are you entirely blind to the daily fuck-ups perpetrated by the current WM government? Swinney’s no political superstar, but he can locate his arse with both hands, which isn’t something I’d be confident about saying about half the current Cabinet. We’ve got a PM who failed to attend the first five Cobra meetings on Covid and then went on holiday, a Home Secretary currently getting into an online argument with an ice cream company, a Foreign Secretary who didn’t realise the Dover-Calais crossing was important, a Health Secretary who thought York was in Scotland... should I go on?

FFS, even Grayling didn’t actually get the sack, despite literally everything he touched turning to disaster. He wasn’t offered a job after Johnson became leader. Even then, they tried to make him chair of the intelligence and security committee, which only didn’t happen after one of the other Tories rebelled.

[sockwithaticket]

Completely. It infuriates me when mentioning the state of the NHS youre usually met with the argument that its better than in England.


Back to schools. Don't have kids and its been a couple of years since I left school but are the prelims not meant to determine what grades you would have had if something unforseen disrupts the exam proper? Why has that not happened?

I also think this is an opportunity to move away from one off exams determining someones future. Course work graded over the year is more appropriate imo.

100% there is so much that goes into whether someone doe well in an exam on a particular day. I always got brilliant marks for coursework where I could take my time (at uni too) to craft something, but in exams I don't think I ever finished an essay I started in part because I was a slow writer but not slow enough to get extra time. Thankfully I was at school when coursework was more prevalent and it very often helped keep my grades high.

Coursework also more closely replicates how many will be expected to work once they leave school than exams. Which feeds into what is school actually for? Preparation for life afterwards is part of that equation.

I am somewhat sympathetic as despite generally being good at exams at school I completely bombed A-Level Maths and got a D in the final exam instead of the predicted A.

However, one drawback of being wholly reliant on coursework is that there is a really obvious way for better off parents to buy their child's way into a good university. It's trivially easy to purchase essays etc online now and there is still the option of the private tutor who can help with the work for the more traditionally minded.

There's also teachers offering too much 'assistance'* or parents and it being difficult to regulate who's actually doing the work. I was teaching when Gove's reforms came in, I'm not unsympathetic to the issues with coursework, but I still think it has a place in the curriculum. Certainly moreso than the vestigial presence it currently enjoys.

*Largely because there is so much scrutiny on student outcomes that many try to leave as little of those outcomes in students' hands as possible.

[Smutley]

Swinney needs to go, IMO. But the point stands. He should sort out the immediate problem then fuck off.

What we are seeing right now is the exact same cock-up being played out in slow motion in England, even though they were forewarned by our debacle. Looks like they have somehow they contrived to make it worse. Gavin Williamson makes John Swinney seem like a Zen Master.

Just looking at the pandemic (never mind their long and illustrious record in all fields) the WM govt's inability to admit mistakes or accept the bleeding obvious has clearly perverted policy and put political reputation ahead of public health.

[Northern Lights]

fucking hell.

This is a pretty common theme for those that support the SNP. They now want to vote for them because they admit to their fuck ups. The fact the fuck ups keep happening is irrelevant it would seem.

The other cry is well the rest are no better or are worse. How do we know that when they haven’t had a shot at running things for 13 years. The snp got in because the country was sick of the Labour efforts who had become stale and fresh out of ideas.

Education is in decline, has been for a while now but it is just a shambles now. They love to criticise Westminster but there is simply no way Swinney would still be a government minister with his numerous fuck ups if he served down south.

Mediocrity is what Scotland now aspires to and that won’t change until we change the actors in charge.

I do find it desperately disappointing that a smart guy like Smutley would vote for this shower and not want better.

You’ve come out with some proper shite in the past, NL, but this one knocks it out of the park. Are you entirely blind to the daily fuck-ups perpetrated by the current WM government? Swinney’s no political superstar, but he can locate his arse with both hands, which isn’t something I’d be confident about saying about half the current Cabinet. We’ve got a PM who failed to attend the first five Cobra meetings on Covid and then went on holiday, a Home Secretary currently getting into an online argument with an ice cream company, a Foreign Secretary who didn’t realise the Dover-Calais crossing was important, a Health Secretary who thought York was in Scotland... should I go on?

FFS, even Grayling didn’t actually get the sack, despite literally everything he touched turning to disaster. He wasn’t offered a job after Johnson became leader. Even then, they tried to make him chair of the intelligence and security committee, which only didn’t happen after one of the other Tories rebelled.

Grayling did get sacked as transport minister, out by Boris as soon as he was in.

At least in Westminster we get tories actually rebelling and voting against shite policy, the snp though always vote with Sturgeon, not one of them either has the balls, brains or conviction to vote against the governing party no matter how shite their bills are, whether that’s named person, this new pearler on hate speech or anything else that might trigger the remotest part of their conviction to vote with their conscience.

Westminster has loads of tossers but given you can only ever point to them as opposed to want more of the Scottish Government who are hopeless across pretty much everything they touch says it all.

Keep striving for mediocrity.

[I like neeps]

I disagree NL. Boris sacked a long standing Tory because he beat Grayling to a committee lead vote. Even if he did sack Grayling to get Shapps in as transport it clearly was a political rather than competency decision. Or else he wouldn't have attempted to bully grayling into leading the security committee.

The Tories in the Westminster cabinet now are lackies who'll jump on any grenade to protect Boris.

I have some sympathy with Swinney and Williamson over the exam results fiasco. How can you have results but not exams? But both have made an absolute pigs ear of it.

[Northern Lights]

Swinney needs to go, IMO. But the point stands. He should sort out the immediate problem then fuck off.

What we are seeing right now is the exact same cock-up being played out in slow motion in England, even though they were forewarned by our debacle. Looks like they have somehow they contrived to make it worse. Gavin Williamson makes John Swinney seem like a Zen Master.

Just looking at the pandemic (never mind their long and illustrious record in all fields) the WM govt's inability to admit mistakes or accept the bleeding obvious has clearly perverted policy and put political reputation ahead of public health.

It’s now sorted, u-turn, climb down, whatever you want to call it. They caved under pressure so the results now have even less credibility, head of the exam board was confident if the appeals process had been followed any erroneous errors would have been corrected. This however was not politically expedient enough so they just upgraded the lot so this entire year is a complete joke, poor kids.

Teachers have a poor track record on estimating grades but are the ones we go with, be interesting to see if Boris caves but he is not under the same pressure with an election looming, not that, that should matter but we all know that’s what drove this u-turn. I don’t see where you think Williamson is so much worse than Swinney that is properly off the reservation but that’s what we can expect every time. Scotland shite but hey let’s throw mud, warranted or otherwise down south to hopefully detract from actually holding our muppets to account.

[I like neeps]

The problem I think LN isn't so much that predicted grades is unreliable but the Scottish government SQA algo to correct the results was so punishing for low income area schools. The SNP can't credibly claim to lead a left wing government if they hammer disadvantaged kids for being disadvantaged.

Also yes they also couldn't piss of a cohort of 16-18 year olds and expect their votes. The Tories are in big trouble if this annoys the kids parents to a significant degree.

I'd put money on Boris caving. He's caved on everything else so far. The telegraph and mail leading with this story in unfavorable terms is big trouble.

[Yr Alban]

You have to love the way that people froth at the mouth about the incompetence of John Swinney and the SNP (25% of grades reduced, until it was reversed) and then, when England does much worse (39% reduced) segue shamelessly into saying that we shouldn’t be comparing Scotland to England and we are aspiring to mediocrity.

Comparisons with England are pretty much the whole point - because England is wholly governed by the Westminster government which the (now unarguable) majority of Scots want to get rid of. The bottom line is that if Scotland had the same government as England, the kids would be a lot worse off right now. It’s not about aspiring to mediocrity, it’s about aspiring to a better situation than the status quo. Which isn’t hard right now, to be fair, as Westminster are setting a very very low bar.

[Northern Lights]

You have to love the way that people froth at the mouth about the incompetence of John Swinney and the SNP (25% of grades reduced, until it was reversed) and then, when England does much worse (39% reduced) segue shamelessly into saying that we shouldn’t be comparing Scotland to England and we are aspiring to mediocrity.

Comparisons with England are pretty much the whole point - because England is wholly governed by the Westminster government which the (now unarguable) majority of Scots want to get rid of. The bottom line is that if Scotland had the same government as England, the kids would be a lot worse off right now. It’s not about aspiring to mediocrity, it’s about aspiring to a better situation than the status quo. Which isn’t hard right now, to be fair, as Westminster are setting a very very low bar.

That of course would be an education system that is overseen by Westminster that is doing better than Scotland in the PISA rankings which before the snp got their hands on our education system was pretty much never the case and we were widely admired for our system.

But yeah keep going after Westminster when the facts don’t back up the rhetoric, no wonder you like Sturgeon, all style, very little substance.

[Northern Lights]

The problem I think LN isn't so much that predicted grades is unreliable but the Scottish government SQA algo to correct the results was so punishing for low income area schools. The SNP can't credibly claim to lead a left wing government if they hammer disadvantaged kids for being disadvantaged.

Also yes they also couldn't piss of a cohort of 16-18 year olds and expect their votes. The Tories are in big trouble if this annoys the kids parents to a significant degree.

I'd put money on Boris caving. He's caved on everything else so far. The telegraph and mail leading with this story in unfavorable terms is big trouble.

Maybe, you could well be right. They may make a stand to differ from how our lot caved. They’re not under the same pressure time wise to keep everyone happy by dishing out A’s like confetti.

There is definitely a credibility issue for the kids results this year and feck knows how the Uni’s sort this out.

I don’t disagree the disadvantaged kids were badly treated but I was under the impression that the Uni’s took this into account when giving places.

[dkm57]

It's the panicked and unedifying deletion of coordinated tweets by Tory MPs, which would be riseable if the matter wasn't so serious.

[I like neeps]

The problem I think LN isn't so much that predicted grades is unreliable but the Scottish government SQA algo to correct the results was so punishing for low income area schools. The SNP can't credibly claim to lead a left wing government if they hammer disadvantaged kids for being disadvantaged.

Also yes they also couldn't piss of a cohort of 16-18 year olds and expect their votes. The Tories are in big trouble if this annoys the kids parents to a significant degree.

I'd put money on Boris caving. He's caved on everything else so far. The telegraph and mail leading with this story in unfavorable terms is big trouble.

Maybe, you could well be right. They may make a stand to differ from how our lot caved. They’re not under the same pressure time wise to keep everyone happy by dishing out A’s like confetti.

There is definitely a credibility issue for the kids results this year and feck knows how the Uni’s sort this out.

I don’t disagree the disadvantaged kids were badly treated but I was under the impression that the Uni’s took this into account when giving places.

Depends. If a disadvantaged kid is in 6th form they may have had conditional offers and the university would have to take into account the disadvantage in making the offer back in early 2020 and again now. If in fifth year probably would have to consider.

I think there's a credibility issue anyway as nobody deserved the results they got because nobody did the exam! It was only ever going to be a total and complete mess where the peak of their school career was reduced to a statistical modelling exercise. A brutal situation. However, one underplayed factor I believe is universities will be extremely accomodating because they aren't getting any international students and those fat stacks.of cash so they'll take anyone. It's the kids going for apprenticeships etc I feel for.

I think they'll U-turn. Parents will be apoplectic. You can mess up a fair bit in politics and find convenient scapegoats. But good luck messing with someone's child's life chances and coming out well. I can't imagine a more serious political faux Pas than downgrading voters kids exam marks. That kind of anger surely wouldn't subside quickly.

[Slick]

.

[Northern Lights]

The problem I think LN isn't so much that predicted grades is unreliable but the Scottish government SQA algo to correct the results was so punishing for low income area schools. The SNP can't credibly claim to lead a left wing government if they hammer disadvantaged kids for being disadvantaged.

Also yes they also couldn't piss of a cohort of 16-18 year olds and expect their votes. The Tories are in big trouble if this annoys the kids parents to a significant degree.

I'd put money on Boris caving. He's caved on everything else so far. The telegraph and mail leading with this story in unfavorable terms is big trouble.

Maybe, you could well be right. They may make a stand to differ from how our lot caved. They’re not under the same pressure time wise to keep everyone happy by dishing out A’s like confetti.

There is definitely a credibility issue for the kids results this year and feck knows how the Uni’s sort this out.

I don’t disagree the disadvantaged kids were badly treated but I was under the impression that the Uni’s took this into account when giving places.

Depends. If a disadvantaged kid is in 6th form they may have had conditional offers and the university would have to take into account the disadvantage in making the offer back in early 2020 and again now. If in fifth year probably would have to consider.

I think there's a credibility issue anyway as nobody deserved the results they got because nobody did the exam! It was only ever going to be a total and complete mess where the peak of their school career was reduced to a statistical modelling exercise. A brutal situation. However, one underplayed factor I believe is universities will be extremely accomodating because they aren't getting any international students and those fat stacks.of cash so they'll take anyone. It's the kids going for apprenticeships etc I feel for.

I think they'll U-turn. Parents will be apoplectic. You can mess up a fair bit in politics and find convenient scapegoats. But good luck messing with someone's child's life chances and coming out well. I can't imagine a more serious political faux Pas than downgrading voters kids exam marks. That kind of anger surely wouldn't subside quickly.

As an aside, I believe overseas applications are up in Scotland. Think it’s because the SG have said eu students don’t have to pay this year as we are in transition with leaving the EU and if they get in now, no fees for the 4 years. Or that’s what friends at Aberdeen Uni are putting it down to.

[Caley_Red]

If I am objective, can I honestly look at Nicola Sturgeon's record in government and say that she has improved the country? No. Hence, I could never consider voting for her.
Her tenure has been littered with repeated policy failures, dreadful economic stewardship, a strong authoritarian streak and she has deepened the division which has riven the country these last five years. Incompetent, illiberal and illaudable, in my view.

[dpedin]

But you ignore my point that by letting the virus run through the u65s we are in effect exposing them to risk of ongoing health issues which will affect their own health and well being, lead to significant drain on the NHS, have an impact on their ability to work and dent public confidence. Even the twat Hancock recognises this https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 9-12028821

Letting the virus run uncontrolled over a short period of time, which is what would happen if we let the virus run wild, would really stress the NHS and public confidence. I gave you a couple of examples of what this has meant for me and the tv doc and the consequences for the NHS. I see Tom Wood, the English flanker also suffered from a blood clot in the lungs due to covid19 and is off work and on anticoagulants, so even the fittest and healthiest guys with fantastic healthcare provision are suffering! Even if it was only 1%, well below the estimates being suggested, of the under 65s impacted adversely the impact would be huge on NHS and the economy.

Some solid evidence is emerging that a significant chunk of folk who have had covid19, even those asymptomatically, are suffering real and ongoing health issues. I really doubt letting a virus with as yet unquantified and fully understood long term health care implications for the whole population is a very responsible strategy as far as both public health and economic growth is concerned! OF course we need to balance PH and economy but without PH there is no economy.

On specific points:

- any responsible Gov with an unknown and potentially fatal virus could not have done anything else but lock down the country to buy time until they knew what they were dealing with. I suspect your working with the benefit of hindsight
- we were not overwhelmed because we had a lock down
- we wouldn't have been able to implement a localised lock down strategy without the initial lock down and got cases down to a low number. We also didnt have sufficient testing capacity at that point to identify and implement a local lock down strategy.
- developing herd immunity (even if possible with a large % of pop shielded and without knowing at the time if folk developed anti bodies once having had covid19) would quickly would have overwhelmed the NHS with the small % developing severe covid19 even in the under 65s plus the significant % of them who would also have developed related serious health issues - see my earlier comments re cardiac, stroke, etc
- the lock down was exactly about delaying the inevitable - smoothing the curve - so we had a fighting chance of managing the consequences without overwhelming the NHS and social services and even possible social breakdown
- opening up sooner .... just like the US? Thats going to work out well.
- Some companies are running out of cash and we need to support them, others have done very nicely thank you so perhaps it is more about distributing the costs and profits more fairly across all the sectors? A role for Gov to fulfill
- it doesn't matter how old folk are, we have a moral and social obligation to help them live their lives as they wish and not implement a euthanasia policy by stealth because it means more folk can go to the pub! They've paid all their lives via income tax and National insurance and got us through the difficult post war issues ... we now forget that, stop obsessing about protecting our grannies and let them 'die off' but make it 'pleasant'? At this point I'm done!

I’m not going through this point by point but it’s suffice to say I disagree with pretty much all of it.

It’s also clear you’re utterly blinkered by your hatred of the tories that you’re the opposite side of the bimbo coin. You never fail to drop the odd insult in.

So I basically can’t be arsed, life is far too short to smack my head off this sort of brick wall.

Somehow I'm not surprised that you don't want to go through this point by point! It gets a lot harder when we move from over generalised guff and have to back up it up in a bit more detail. Rather than run away lets have the discussion, I'm happy to debate any of the above with you.

Blinkered hatred of the Tories ... all I did was call Hancock a twat but then acknowledged that he has recognised the long term health implications of covid19 and provided the link to the article.

Interesting that the UK has the worst excess deaths rate in Europe and the deepest recession. I wonder what the link is? Sort of blows a hole below the waterline of those wanting to let the virus run in under 65s?

[Caley_Red]

I’m not going through this point by point but it’s suffice to say I disagree with pretty much all of it.

It’s also clear you’re utterly blinkered by your hatred of the tories that you’re the opposite side of the bimbo coin. You never fail to drop the odd insult in.

So I basically can’t be arsed, life is far too short to smack my head off this sort of brick wall.

Somehow I'm not surprised that you don't want to go through this point by point! It gets a lot harder when we move from over generalised guff and have to back up it up in a bit more detail. Rather than run away lets have the discussion, I'm happy to debate any of the above with you.

Blinkered hatred of the Tories ... all I did was call Hancock a twat but then acknowledged that he has recognised the long term health implications of covid19 and provided the link to the article.

Interesting that the UK has the worst excess deaths rate in Europe and the deepest recession. I wonder what the link is? Sort of blows a hole below the waterline of those wanting to let the virus run in under 65s?

On the economy, composition of the econony: heavily biased toward high value service industry. Also, only a third of UK workers are back at their desks versus c70% in France and Germany. The UK also has the most severe lockdown, Oxford created an index measuring various elements of lockdown and their intensity e.g. schools shut, transport curtailed etc. and found the UK to have the most severe lockdown when measured by a composite of these indicators.

As for excess deaths, I only know that the UK is quite charitable in its classification of deaths by corona as it is counted if its an expected co-morbidity. Everything I've read suggests that international comparisons is pretty fruitless as the methodology is so variant.

[I like neeps]

Here's a good link dpedin on the UK and covid: https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ic/615166/

It was a number of serious failures over a longer period of time. Obviously you don't want Boris Johnson and his boosterism and lack of focus on details in charge during a pandemic (or ever for me). But everything I've read does suggest the scientists at SAGE were the reason for the late lockdown and not Boris Johnson.

[robmatic]

As for excess deaths, I only know that the UK is quite charitable in its classification of deaths by corona as it is counted if its an expected co-morbidity. Everything I've read suggests that international comparisons is pretty fruitless as the methodology is so variant.

Whether a death is counted as counted as corona or not is irrelevant for the excess deaths measure - it's simply the total number of deaths in excess of the typical number of deaths over the same period.

Excess mortality is probably the best way of making international comparisons due to the variations in reporting methodology. Most countries, including the UK, seem to undercount coronavirus deaths to some degree.

[Caley_Red]

As for excess deaths, I only know that the UK is quite charitable in its classification of deaths by corona as it is counted if its an expected co-morbidity. Everything I've read suggests that international comparisons is pretty fruitless as the methodology is so variant.

Whether a death is counted as counted as corona or not is irrelevant for the excess deaths measure - it's simply the total number of deaths in excess of the typical number of deaths over the same period.

Excess mortality is probably the best way of making international comparisons due to the variations in reporting methodology. Most countries, including the UK, seem to undercount coronavirus deaths to some degree.

Yes, my mistake, I read that as corona death rate.

[Jock42]

How did other countries "protect" their health services? Was there the mass shutting down of routine services and GP surgeries? Were the public as shite scared of seeking medical help for about a 2 month period as they were here?

ETA: And are people elsewhere as unhealthy as people here?

[Biffer]

How did other countries "protect" their health services? Was there the mass shutting down of routine services and GP surgeries? Were the public as shite scared of seeking medical help for about a 2 month period as they were here?

ETA: And are people elsewhere as unhealthy as people here?

Obesity rates are definitely higher in the UK. Think Diabetes is higher in a lot of other European countries, but not sure about when it comes to the type I / II split. Not sure about hypertension or more general cardio-pulmonary illness.

[tc27]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... ll-2942035

Really worried about where we are heading TBH.

[Tattie]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... ll-2942035

Really worried about where we are heading TBH.

I’m worried about that atrocious level of journalism and terrible emotive wording.

[S/Lt_Phillips]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... ll-2942035

Really worried about where we are heading TBH.

I’m worried about that atrocious level of journalism and terrible emotive wording.

The Scotsman is now sadly a very poor imitation of what it once was. As someone from the east, it pains me to admit the Herald has been the superior paper for years.

[Northern Lights]

It's also a load of nonsense that the SNP are allowed to have the National printing their shite day in, day out, similar to what RT does for Putin, they really have no shame.

[I like neeps]

It's also a load of nonsense that the SNP are allowed to have the National printing their shite day in, day out, similar to what RT does for Putin, they really have no shame.

Same with the Tories and the telegraph/mail no? Or the telegraph/mail/sun and brexit.

UK wide the press is absolutely crap. Journalism is just cheerleading whereever you look.

[Northern Lights]

It's also a load of nonsense that the SNP are allowed to have the National printing their shite day in, day out, similar to what RT does for Putin, they really have no shame.

Same with the Tories and the telegraph/mail no? Or the telegraph/mail/sun and brexit.

UK wide the press is absolutely crap. Journalism is just cheerleading whereever you look.

That’s staggering false equivalence.

[Tattie]

It's also a load of nonsense that the SNP are allowed to have the National printing their shite day in, day out, similar to what RT does for Putin, they really have no shame.

Same with the Tories and the telegraph/mail no? Or the telegraph/mail/sun and brexit.

UK wide the press is absolutely crap. Journalism is just cheerleading whereever you look.

That’s staggering false equivalence.

The National nailed its colours to the mast from day one - it was setup purely as a pro-independence newspaper, a small attempt to try to balance the print media in Scotland which is pretty much totally pro-union. There is zero ambiguity, I find it hilarious that unionists have an issue with this when we have “quality broadsheets” like The Scotsman and local rags like the P&J which are essentially Tory mouthpieces. What I don’t understand is why one or more of these failing publications don’t think that continually backing the losing horse may be having an affect or their potential readership. The fact that they’re all London owned may have something to do with this i suppose.

Personally, I would love a totally politically unbiased print and broadcast media in Scotland but nae chance of that.

[Slick]

Didn’t realise Nicola has decided that pubs and bars can’t play background music because people might have to lean in to speak... seems a little over the top!

On another note, I went out last night for the first time in central Edinburgh, it’s absolutely devastating what’s happing to the pubs and restaurants. What should have been the busiest week of the year and it was dead, just can’t see how anything is going to survive.

[Jock42]

Didn’t realise Nicola has decided that pubs and bars can’t play background music because people might have to lean in to speak... seems a little over the top!

On another note, I went out last night for the first time in central Edinburgh, it’s absolutely devastating what’s happing to the pubs and restaurants. What should have been the busiest week of the year and it was dead, just can’t see how anything is going to survive.

I thought that was individual pubs choices as with sport.

Aye I agree. Plenty of more jobs going to go unfortunately.

[Blackmac]

Didn’t realise Nicola has decided that pubs and bars can’t play background music because people might have to lean in to speak... seems a little over the top!

On another note, I went out last night for the first time in central Edinburgh, it’s absolutely devastating what’s happing to the pubs and restaurants. What should have been the busiest week of the year and it was dead, just can’t see how anything is going to survive.

We are going out for lunch on Saturday and at the last minute realised we would have to book a table for drinks afterwards. I was astonished just how many well known places aren't even open, however the ones that are all seem to be fully booked.

[Jock42]

Didn’t realise Nicola has decided that pubs and bars can’t play background music because people might have to lean in to speak... seems a little over the top!

On another note, I went out last night for the first time in central Edinburgh, it’s absolutely devastating what’s happing to the pubs and restaurants. What should have been the busiest week of the year and it was dead, just can’t see how anything is going to survive.

We are going out for lunch on Saturday and at the last minute realised we would have to book a table for drinks afterwards. I was astonished just how many well known places aren't even open, however the ones that are all seem to be fully booked.

We've not been too bad up here. A few places aren't accepting bookings so we can wander about nearly as normal.

It helps that Dundee Council have allowed a number of pubs to have seating in streets where they otherwise wouldn't.

[Northern Lights]

Same with the Tories and the telegraph/mail no? Or the telegraph/mail/sun and brexit.

UK wide the press is absolutely crap. Journalism is just cheerleading whereever you look.

That’s staggering false equivalence.

The National nailed its colours to the mast from day one - it was setup purely as a pro-independence newspaper, a small attempt to try to balance the print media in Scotland which is pretty much totally pro-union. There is zero ambiguity, I find it hilarious that unionists have an issue with this when we have “quality broadsheets” like The Scotsman and local rags like the P&J which are essentially Tory mouthpieces. What I don’t understand is why one or more of these failing publications don’t think that continually backing the losing horse may be having an affect or their potential readership. The fact that they’re all London owned may have something to do with this i suppose.

Personally, I would love a totally politically unbiased print and broadcast media in Scotland but nae chance of that.

What a pile of shite the P&J is now a Tory mouthpiece, you clown

[Slick]

Didn’t realise Nicola has decided that pubs and bars can’t play background music because people might have to lean in to speak... seems a little over the top!

On another note, I went out last night for the first time in central Edinburgh, it’s absolutely devastating what’s happing to the pubs and restaurants. What should have been the busiest week of the year and it was dead, just can’t see how anything is going to survive.

We are going out for lunch on Saturday and at the last minute realised we would have to book a table for drinks afterwards. I was astonished just how many well known places aren't even open, however the ones that are all seem to be fully booked.

Yup, huge number of places not open. Just looking in through windows I don’t think I saw a restaurant with more than 3 tables taken. Whighams had 2 people in it, pubs on Rose street open but deserted.

Really missing the festival actually