So, coronavirus...

[.OverThere]

Is this showing that the Covid rate of infections is starting to peak?

Nah, thats just a half eaten crisp I left lying around.

[Enzedder]

Is that the Yanks? If so, what it shows is that the CDC no longer count the cases and deaths; these figures are now released via the White House.

Here are the figures for their excess deaths

We've all seen the loons saying that the covid death count is overestimated. Nope - corpses are easily countable, and there's a lot more of them than there should be.

[The Druid]

Is that the Yanks? If so, what it shows is that the CDC no longer count the cases and deaths; these figures are now released via the White House.

Here is the figures for their excess deaths

We've all seen the loons saying that the covid death count is overestimated. Nope - corpses are easily countable, and there's a lot more of them than there should be.

Its the world Covid infection daily cases from the Johns Hopkins university site.

[Enzedder]

I reckon it's flattening as it is going through countries that don't test (and don't count the slum-dwellers).

It's good that the others are getting a handle on it though, don't get me wrong

[fishfoodie]

The New York Times is maintaining a simple, accessible repo with the US COVID Stats, By State, & By County.

It's in csv, so you can just import it into Excel & make your own charts, & they're horrific.

[Insane_Homer]

[TB63]

I expected to see "Bimbo, you're a twat" ...

[Hong Kong]

https://www.distractify.com/p/1918-pan ... donts-list

[Hong Kong]

I’m probably not the only one who giggled inappropriately at this

[Hong Kong]

[Bimbowomxn]

Pro democracy’s demonstrator?

[Ted.]

One analysis in relation to the economic cost of lockdown in NZ vs Sweden, UK and US.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinio ... lution-too

... It is still too early to conduct a complete analysis of the full costs and benefits of elimination as a strategy, and the use of lockdowns.

But from my analysis of the data available so far, the evidence supports elimination as a strategy. Success depends on compliance to restrictions, fortitude by business and the public, and making sure we do not lift restrictions too early. ...

The trouble is, if we keep yo yoing merely along for the next year or so, does multiple hits amount to sucking it in and taking it on the chin? Probably not, but I can see dipping in and out of community transmission with attendant lockdowns getting to the populace at large.

[Enzedder]

[Paddington Bear]

Went to Jersey last week - mandatory test on arrival and results back in 24-48 hours. Negative. The test really isn't that invasive either.

If we can get that down to a few hours then I suspect life can return to normal much quicker. We can't carry on like this, taking the economic hits we are.

[Kiwias]

Rumours here that Putin's daughter died after two shots of the Russian vaccine. Has anyone heard anything?

[The Druid]

Rumours here that Putin's daughter died after two shots of the Russian vaccine. Has anyone heard anything?

If this is true You will have also heard rumours of the doctors who administered the vaccine will have "fallen" out of a window.

[Kiwias]

Rumours here that Putin's daughter died after two shots of the Russian vaccine. Has anyone heard anything?

If this is true You will have also heard rumours of the doctors who administered the vaccine will have "fallen" out of a window.

It seems that a comment on reddit is the source of the rumours, so the doctors are safe for a while longer.

[Sandstorm]

died after two shots of the Russian vaccine.

Neighbours heard two loud bangs. Possibly from a Makarov.

[Ymx]

Rumours here that Putin's daughter died after two shots of the Russian vaccine. Has anyone heard anything?

If this is true You will have also heard rumours of the doctors who administered the vaccine will have "fallen" out of a window.

I shouldn’t but

[Insane_Homer]

UK Govt official stats - UK deaths per week...

Week ending...
19/7/20 - 482 down 19.5%
26/7/20 - 451 - down 6.4%
2/8/20 - 449 - down 0.4%
9/8/20 - 373 - down 16.9%
16/8/20 - 440/432 - up 18%

That's first weekly rise since ~ mid April

The reported numbers are being 'adjusted' , for example

on Friday the stats said

10/8/2020 22
11/8/2020 102
12/8/2020 77
13/8/2020 70
14/8/2020 122
15/8/2020 40
16/8/2020 7

Today they say

10/08/2020 21
11/08/2020 100
12/08/2020 72
13/08/2020 70
14/08/2020 122
15/08/2020 40
16/08/2020 7

[Margin__Walker]

The reported numbers are being 'adjusted' , for example

on Friday the stats said

10/8/2020 22
11/8/2020 102
12/8/2020 77
13/8/2020 70
14/8/2020 122
15/8/2020 40
16/8/2020 7

Today they say

10/08/2020 21
11/08/2020 100
12/08/2020 72
13/08/2020 70
14/08/2020 122
15/08/2020 40
16/08/2020 7

Stop. The. Press

[Biffer]

UK Govt official stats - UK deaths per week...

Week ending...
19/7/20 - 482 down 19.5%
26/7/20 - 451 - down 6.4%
2/8/20 - 449 - down 0.4%
9/8/20 - 373 - down 16.9%
16/8/20 - 440/432 - up 18%

That's first weekly rise since ~ mid April

The reported numbers are being 'adjusted' , for example

on Friday the stats said

10/8/2020 22
11/8/2020 102
12/8/2020 77
13/8/2020 70
14/8/2020 122
15/8/2020 40
16/8/2020 7

Today they say

10/08/2020 21
11/08/2020 100
12/08/2020 72
13/08/2020 70
14/08/2020 122
15/08/2020 40
16/08/2020 7

You're not using statistics well here. The ONS figures, which are the more reliable ones, have the numbers of deaths mentioning COVID19 on the death certificate in England and Wales as

week ending
3/7 532
10/7 366
17/7 295
24/7 217
31/7 193

[Insane_Homer]

You're not using statistics well here. The ONS figures, which are the more reliable ones, have the numbers of deaths mentioning COVID19 on the death certificate in England and Wales as

I'm using the ones published here daily - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

The ONS data has a lag of over 2 weeks.

and does put the total death count considerably higher (~10,000) than Govt stats of 41,443 (or 36,728 under new 28 day fudging).

Up to 31 July 2020, there were 51,710 deaths registered in England and Wales involving the coronavirus

England had the longest continuous period of excess mortality of any country compared and so the highest levels of excess mortality in Europe for the period as a whole.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... comparison

[Biffer]

You're not using statistics well here. The ONS figures, which are the more reliable ones, have the numbers of deaths mentioning COVID19 on the death certificate in England and Wales as

week ending
3/7 532
10/7 366
17/7 295
24/7 217
31/7 193

I'm using the ones published here daily - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

The ONS data has a lag of over 2 weeks.

and does put the total death count considerably higher (~10,000) than Govt stats of 41,443 (or 36,728 under new 28 day fudging).

Up to 31 July 2020, there were 51,710 deaths registered in England and Wales involving the coronavirus

England had the longest continuous period of excess mortality of any country compared and so the highest levels of excess mortality in Europe for the period as a whole.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... comparison

You don't seem to understand why those numbers are being adjusted though. You might do better to understand the statistics and the way they're being recorded.

[Insane_Homer]

I understand that the ONS are reporting a COVID related mortality count that's 41.4% higher than the new 28 day method being used

My point was that the weekly death count has gone up for the first time and is both significant and worrying. (regardless of minor adjustments to the daily count figures)

[Bimbowomxn]

I understand that the ONS are reporting a COVID related mortality count that's 41.4% higher than the new 28 day method being used

My point was that the weekly death count has gone up for the first time and is both significant and worrying. (regardless of minor adjustments to the daily count figures)

The weekly death count hasn’t gone up. You keep insisting it has ..... the announcements aren’t for the day they’re announced.

Why can’t you grasp this ?

[Insane_Homer]

The weekly death count hasn’t gone up. You keep insisting it has ..... the announcements aren’t for the day they’re announced.

Why can’t you grasp this ?

reported deaths, why do keeping insisting it's something else?

Like, it's bleedingly obvious that the reported death count announced later today ~16:00ish, will not be number of people who died today (not withstanding there's still 8 hours to go in the day and the lag in the paper work from time of death to it actually getting to the stats people, so for example a person who died a week ago might only have his death reported in todays stats).

But you seem to think that's how the number being reported on that day are being presented/interpreted?

[Un Pilier]

I understand that the ONS are reporting a COVID related mortality count that's 41.4% higher than the new 28 day method being used

My point was that the weekly death count has gone up for the first time and is both significant and worrying. (regardless of minor adjustments to the daily count figures)

Look, take one set of figures and plot the trend line. Take another set and plot that. Take as many as you want and plot those. I’m always interested to see those and observe what is happening as controls are released and testing is increased. Just don’t mix and match stuff in a random fashion.

It’s clear you have a narrative. If you want to use credible stats to support it you’ll have to exercise a tad more rigour to convince most people here.

[Bimbowomxn]

The weekly death count hasn’t gone up. You keep insisting it has ..... the announcements aren’t for the day they’re announced.

Why can’t you grasp this ?

reported deaths, why do keeping insisting it's something else?

Like, it's bleedingly obvious that the reported death count announced later today ~16:00ish, will not be number of people who died today (not withstanding there's still 8 hours to go in the day and the lag in the paper work from time of death to it actually getting to the stats people, so for example a person who died a week ago might only have his death reported in todays stats).

But you seem to think that's how the number being reported on that day are being presented/interpreted?

I clearly don’t think that , that’s lunch closer to your stunning thoughts.

Here’s a thing, you started this by reporting a rise in deaths, were as deaths being counted and reported over months have to be applied to their actual date to be relevant to a trend in the deaths.

What’s clear is you keep trying to present a rise in deaths which is dishonest.

[Insane_Homer]

reported over months have to be applied to their actual date to be relevant to a trend in the deaths.

So death reported month ago have actual dates in the last 2 weeks?

[BnM]

1st 3 weeks of lock down domestic violence deaths
11 women
2 children
1 man
From Panorama
FFS.

[Insane_Homer]

reported over months have to be applied to their actual date to be relevant to a trend in the deaths.

and you didn't have a problem with the odd reporting when the numbers were going down (April 12)

I realise UK figure lower at weekends but less than 700 deaths report today. Horrific but encouraging.

The reporting of CV deaths has dipped over the last few weekend though compared to the Monday’s and Tuesdays following,

You know back when you rabidly proclaimed our numbers were higher and accurate because of best reporting.

We have the best reporting!?

We do, and the most thorough of systems . It’s something to be pleased about.

When other countries were reporting 'catch up' death, but we weren't (but now are)

Will you update other countries when they announce their “catch up “ deaths?

[Sandstorm]

1st 3 weeks of lock down domestic violence deaths
11 women
2 children
1 man
From Panorama
FFS.

Panorama sounds like a dangerous place.

[BnM]

1st 3 weeks of lock down domestic violence deaths
11 women
2 children
1 man
From Panorama
FFS.

Panorama sounds like a dangerous place.

Bastard, you're going to hell you know.

[Blackrock Bullet]

Is that the Yanks? If so, what it shows is that the CDC no longer count the cases and deaths; these figures are now released via the White House.

Here are the figures for their excess deaths

We've all seen the loons saying that the covid death count is overestimated. Nope - corpses are easily countable, and there's a lot more of them than there should be.

The cases fell. The CDC conspiracy has been debunked.

[Bimbowomxn]

and you didn't have a problem with the odd reporting when the numbers were going down (April 12)

The odd reporting couldn’t go back months at this point you utter moron.

[Enzedder]

Interesting article on the interweb this morning

Contrary to Mathew Hooton's comment (NZ Herald, August 14), whether Jacinda
Ardern or Judith Collins is prime minister next year, neither would allow Covid-19 to gain a hold in New Zealand. They will not be so ill-informed.

What the epidemiological evidence informs us is that within one month of infection with Covid-19, you will either be dead or no longer infectious. The bad news (I'll come to the good news later) is that approximately one out of every 100 people infected will die within a month.

Estimates vary from between one death among every 200 infected people to one out of every 70 infected people and the proportions differ significantly by age. But these differences are largely irrelevant. What is relevant is that Covid-19 is 20 to 40 times worse than seasonal flu and people of all ages have a substantial risk of infection and of infecting others, of all ages.

It might not kill you, but your infection might be the cause your grandmother's death.

There is further bad news. Without any restrictions, it is estimated that one person will infect between two and three other people and the number of cases in any single setting, can double every two days, from 1 case to 2 to 4, 8, 16, 32 etc. About one in every five of these infected people will require hospitalisation and about one in every five of hospitalised people will require intensive care.

The exact numbers again are not important, what is important is that hospital services will be rapidly overwhelmed. We have all read about the rotting Covid-infected corpses spilling out of refrigerated trucks in New York City, one of the wealthiest cities in the world.

And yet some commentators have tried to argue that the Covid crisis is largely hysteria! In addition, there are increasing reports of long-term after-effects of infection.

What Hooton and other commentators (including Kate MacNamara in the same issue of the NZ Herald) tend to do when arguing that "Covid ain't that bad" is to bring up Sweden.

What experienced epidemiologists do is to systematically identify and critique the totality of evidence, something most commentators on the subject simply do not have the skills or experience to do. This systematic and critical approach is particularly necessary when examining evidence about Covid-19 infection because it is hugely influenced by the setting in which the infection occurs.

Think of a person infected by Covid-19 as being like a spark that has jumped out of a fire. If it lands on bare earth, it rapidly dies out, if it lands on a small clump of trees, it may catch fire for a while and then die out, but if it lands in a large tinder-dry forest, it rapidly gets out of control. If you examine any one of these outcomes in isolation from the others, you could come to completely different conclusions.

Using this analogy, the situation in Sweden, so far, is the equivalent of a spark landing in a small clump of trees. About 55 per cent of Swedes live in single person households, the highest proportion worldwide, yet most community spread worldwide occurs in multi-person dwellings.

Recently on social media, a Swede asked when he could go back to his usual 5 metre distancing. He found the recommended 2 metre distancing too uncomfortable. No other country has such a high level of structural and cultural physical distancing.

Despite these huge advantages, and the seldom acknowledged fact that Sweden did introduce a raft of restrictions, including shutting all senior schools and universities, they have experienced one of the highest number of deaths per million population of any country in the world (eighth highest), yet only about 6 per cent of the population have been infected so far.

Rather than Sweden being an example of how benign Covid-19 is, it demonstrates the exact opposite.

Moreover, to continue the spark analogy, one of the most foolhardy plans of policy makers in several countries, including Sweden and the UK (third highest deaths per million), was to let the fires burn until there were insufficient trees remaining to sustain the fire.

We call this phenomenon "herd immunity" in infectious disease epidemiology. It occurs when a sufficient proportion of a population have become immune, as a result of infection or a vaccine, and the virus cannot find enough nonimmune people to keep going.

For Covid-19, it is estimated that about 60 per cent of the population need to be immune to gain herd immunity, yet, despite the havoc already caused by Covid-19, no country has even got to 10 per cent infected. Also, the 60 per cent immune figure is based on the assumption of a controlled increase in immunity, as a result of vaccination. (My words - that we know about, surely)

While a reasonably controlled forest fire might burn out when 60 per cent of the trees are destroyed, an out-of-control fire might destroy 90 per cent of the forest before burning out.

However, whether the number is 60 per cent or 90 per cent is somewhat irrelevant, given that no country is anywhere near either number and we are still waiting for a vaccine.

To add "further fuel to the fire" (apologies for the pun), immunity might not last very long - the trees may be regrowing more rapidly than they are being destroyed and the fire might continue for years.

So, what is the good news? Firstly, Covid-19 only lasts a maximum of a month, by which time you are either dead or no longer infectious. Secondly there is a golden window of four to five days between when you are infected and when you become infectious (it's only about two days for flu).

Covid-19's golden window makes it possible for an efficient testing, contact tracing and isolation system to stamp out new outbreaks rapidly by identifying infected people before they infect others, as best illustrated by Taiwan's success.

The one-month lifespan of a Covid-19 infection means that a four- to six-week lockdown can also stamp out the virus, as best illustrated in New Zealand a few months ago.

There is no viable alternative to implementing either one or both these strategies for most countries, unless an effective vaccine is developed or the virus mutates into something less serious.

Which one of these strategies or what mix of both is used depends on how widespread the outbreak is when it is discovered.

If we just let the virus rip, there will be chaos, if we do it half-heartedly, people will continue to die and every time you venture out, you could be infected and bring it home.
It will never be safe to visit anyone over about 65 years of age and you might still cause the death of child, teenager or young adult.

New Zealand experienced more than 100 Covid-free days and there is no reason why we can't do better after we stamp out the current infections. We will learn from this minor setback.

We will need to continue to quarantine everyone at the border, but there is every reason to believe that in time, this will become much more efficient and will enable entry to essential workers, foreign students and tourists willing to quarantine.

Hooton states that "managing the entry of Covid-19 into the population over the next 18 months is the only realistic option" but the evidence suggests the opposite is the only viable option.

He goes on to state that "the data from both successes and failures overseas will be useful in working out how to do this" and suggests that "Sweden offers insights into both" and provides a table of mostly useless data to support his premise. The only data in the table with any meaning are the number of people living in Sweden and the number of Covid deaths.

The 83,000 confirmed cases include only about one in seven of true cases according to large scale antibody studies in Sweden, so it is useless information.

This makes his infection rate and death rate (of cases) calculations worse than useless information.

US President Donald Trump has presented similar calculations. The death rate (in the total population) is only meaningful for international comparisons with countries that report their deaths with similar accuracy, and actually demonstrates Sweden is a failure rather than a success.

Hooton tries to argue that Covid-19 represents almost no risk to people up to age 60 years because the death rates in the total population are so low, but he misses the point that only 6 per cent of Swedes have been infected so far.

For the data from both successes and failures overseas to be useful in working out what we should do in New Zealand, commentators need to understand the data.

As far as I am aware, every experienced New Zealand epidemiologist supports our current elimination strategy and we have provided this advice to government.

• Rod Jackson is Professor of Epidemiology at the School of Population Health Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.

[Insane_Homer]

The odd reporting couldn’t go back months at this point you utter moron.

First reporting on deaths started, checks official Govt data, 02/03/2020

[CM11]

Re. the New Zealand article, we are seeing significant asymptomatic spread in Ireland (one cluster was about 95% asymptomatic) currently and very few serious cases from the 1000+ cases we've had in recent weeks. I think he's premature in being smug about others being ill informed.

[Slick]

Interesting piece on a post covid world for cities.

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-d ... dential%29

Makes a lot of sense to me