So, coronavirus...

[Bimbowomxn]

There's plenty more of "the most" vulnerable out there Bimbo. Indications froim the continent are that it;s re-establishing a foothold in care homes; it would still be very possible for a second wave to significantly impact the NHS

Indeed, I said nothing about the continent. We’ve been warned about the second wave so I’m sure we will spot it.

I mention the continent because they've consistently been between 2 and 4 weeks ahead of us, for better or worse - so we have the advantage of seeing where things might go wrong there and adapt policy in the UK.

By the time we've spotted the second wave locally in the UK it'll be too late as we'll 2-4 weeks behind the growth curve - so you then have to enact much stricter lockdowns to regain control. There is a lot still to be very worried about with this virus and we've already made plenty of mistakes that we don;t seem to be prepared to learn from

Where in the continent are hospitalisations and deaths rising ?

[Insane_Homer]

Was it 9 ? Really.

Point is you don’t know.

Yes, I do know, it is 9. Says so right here is the spreadsheet published for yesterday

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... al-summary

But here it still says... 3
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

[Bimbowomxn]

Thanks for proving my point.

[Saint]

Indeed, I said nothing about the continent. We’ve been warned about the second wave so I’m sure we will spot it.

I mention the continent because they've consistently been between 2 and 4 weeks ahead of us, for better or worse - so we have the advantage of seeing where things might go wrong there and adapt policy in the UK.

By the time we've spotted the second wave locally in the UK it'll be too late as we'll 2-4 weeks behind the growth curve - so you then have to enact much stricter lockdowns to regain control. There is a lot still to be very worried about with this virus and we've already made plenty of mistakes that we don;t seem to be prepared to learn from

Where in the continent are hospitalisations and deaths rising ?

Spain is furthest along the curve and they have both rising. Italy, France, Germany, Belgium are all showing significant upticks in cases over the last few weeks, but it;s too early for those to have led to a significant increase in deaths yet, and the hope is that with better treatment we might prevent the mortality rate from spiking quite as much as it did the first time round.

[Insane_Homer]

Thanks for proving my point.

wow. now that's original. It's almost like it sounds familiar...

Thank you , you just proved my point perfectly.

[Sandstorm]

When you say “resilient enough not to die” you mean not even getting symptoms.

No, I don't mean that.

There’s less than 600 patients with Covid in hospital.......

So? That wasn't the point I was making. Go read my post again.

[Bimbowomxn]

No, I don't mean that.

There’s less than 600 patients with Covid in hospital.......

So? That wasn't the point I was making. Go read my post again.

What % of tests from test and trace are positives where people haven’t had symptoms , or a sniffle and not noticed. We want these people getting infected.

[CM11]

Unfortunately it's not possible to track recent deaths here from covid so it'll be inconclusive if we do register that many deaths as deaths get reported quite late here. Not sure why they haven't forced the issue but there you go.

IMO, 1000 cases here now is closer to 10,000 at the start.

Why is not possible to track deaths? Here in Australia anyone who dies whilst infected with covid-19 counts in our death tally. Surely that's the easiest system to use?

Deaths can be as old as three months when reported so useless for tracking trends (from the outside). For example, our recent high day for deaths had 5 announced but 4 were historical from months ago.

[Northern Lights]

So what's the vibe on here these days regarding lockdowns, everyone still happy that is the correct policy response to any uptick in infections detected or are we actually going to try and take account of the enormous economic cost of the lockdowns whether thay is regional or national and the impaxct on our day to day life and freedoms?

This was a comment piece in the Sunday Times:

Neil Oliver: old world has gone up in a puff of smoke — and won’t reappear
Life before virus vanished as if it were an incomplete magic trick
Neil Oliver
Sunday August 16 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

Do you ever get the feeling that something, somewhere has gone badly wrong? The kids went back to school last week and I realise now that I was expecting some sort of sense of relief would follow. It wasn’t about wanting them out of the house — far from it — but more the thought that when they took that step towards their own normal, there would be a lessening of the general anxiety. That did not happen, however. Off they trooped to school and yet the feeling of something having gone wrong remained, like a cold, heavy stone in the tripes.

When the virus arrived and we locked down for the good of the nation — to “flatten the curve” and “save the NHS” — there was an undeniable sense of community spirit about it all. The sense of all being in it together was almost — almost — palpable. Clapping on Thursdays. Now, half a year later, the atmosphere is different and the landscape seems altered, and permanently. It is as though the water level has risen, subtly insinuating itself into places where before it was dry.

Everything looks different, feels different, is different. What had been billed as a short-term state of emergency, requiring a burst of the old Blitz spirit, fossilised into something hard, fixed. It’s like an unfinished magic trick: the magician having led the old world by the hand into a cabinet and shut the door. When the door opened, the old world was gone — and he hasn’t brought it back. Now there’s just an absence and unfulfilled expectation.

The shops are open, the restaurants too, but all feel out of kilter. Masks are mandatory and everywhere. Plastic screens, hazard tape, visors on the faces of people behind counters and serving at tills. The official message, still repeated daily, is that all of this is necessary and unavoidable and we do as we are told.

There is no mention of curves any more and we do seem to have saved our NHS, right enough. But the old world, vanished by magic, seems further away than ever. Maybe there will be a vaccine. Lockdowns — local and national — are still floating around out there like so much bad weather over the horizon and possibly coming our way.

We read and hear about all sorts of possibilities. Perhaps the over-50s will have to shield themselves . . . or perhaps the over-40s. Since I’m in both of those camps, the prospect of being sent indoors for some open-ended term of detention is an ever-present thought.

I realised, years ago now, that I am by nature a dissenter. I was a good wee boy at school but in the years since I have found my inner disobedience. I do not like being told. I have begun to wonder about concepts such as social contracts and uncodified constitutions. Maybe we need a review, a serious and honest review, of those ties that bind us to the institutions of the state. Faced with the threat of contagion we, willingly, for the most part, surrendered our liberties.

We weren’t asked. We said farewell to hugs and kisses and holding hands, to gatherings, weddings and festivals and to proper funerals for the dearly loved. We accepted that travel was no longer freely available. We accepted that the cheek-by-jowl, shoulder-to-shoulder closeness of the pub was no more and that the intimate atmosphere of the restaurant was a pleasure of the past.

Our children face altered futures, curtailed horizons. Unknown numbers of people, out of sight and out of mind, are doubtless struggling with the realities of isolation, loneliness and a host of emotional pressures taking invisible tolls. As a society, we have taken all of this on board, riveted on our self-forged shackles, and now here we are, in the new place, the altered reality of our own making.

Now the R-word is out again — not the mysterious “effective reproduction number” related to the virus, but the deepest recession for 100 years. The solution we had no longer feels like a solution. Instead, it is like the sort of bodged repair I affect with gaffer tape and sealant when what I really need is a plumber. The economy and wider society are bleeding to death. The taxes will go up next, as those in charge look for money to pay for more of whatever this is. Is this hollowed-out life worth paying for? Some accounts cannot be settled with cash or credit cards.

[Calculon]

Mask wearing and some social distancing, along with better treatment and a vaccine should hopefully ensure no need for a future lockdown. I don't see the first two as some great violation of my liberty, just sensible precautions.

From my outsiders perspective it seems the UK went into lockdown a bit late, treated it as a bit of a joke, and then took an inordinate amount of time to start wearing masks. All leading to the country in Europe with the highest excess deaths.

[JM2K6]

There’s less than 600 patients with Covid in hospital.......

So? That wasn't the point I was making. Go read my post again.

What % of tests from test and trace are positives where people haven’t had symptoms , or a sniffle and not noticed. We want these people getting infected.

No we don't. Every infection is a gamble.

[Bimbowomxn]

So? That wasn't the point I was making. Go read my post again.

What % of tests from test and trace are positives where people haven’t had symptoms , or a sniffle and not noticed. We want these people getting infected.

No we don't. Every infection is a gamble.

Clearly not currently. And indeed the odds are 1% to about 1 in a million.

[JM2K6]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

[I like neeps]

So what's the vibe on here these days regarding lockdowns, everyone still happy that is the correct policy response to any uptick in infections detected or are we actually going to try and take account of the enormous economic cost of the lockdowns whether thay is regional or national and the impaxct on our day to day life and freedoms?

This was a comment piece in the Sunday Times:

Neil Oliver: old world has gone up in a puff of smoke — and won’t reappear
Life before virus vanished as if it were an incomplete magic trick
Neil Oliver
Sunday August 16 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

Do you ever get the feeling that something, somewhere has gone badly wrong? The kids went back to school last week and I realise now that I was expecting some sort of sense of relief would follow. It wasn’t about wanting them out of the house — far from it — but more the thought that when they took that step towards their own normal, there would be a lessening of the general anxiety. That did not happen, however. Off they trooped to school and yet the feeling of something having gone wrong remained, like a cold, heavy stone in the tripes.

When the virus arrived and we locked down for the good of the nation — to “flatten the curve” and “save the NHS” — there was an undeniable sense of community spirit about it all. The sense of all being in it together was almost — almost — palpable. Clapping on Thursdays. Now, half a year later, the atmosphere is different and the landscape seems altered, and permanently. It is as though the water level has risen, subtly insinuating itself into places where before it was dry.

Everything looks different, feels different, is different. What had been billed as a short-term state of emergency, requiring a burst of the old Blitz spirit, fossilised into something hard, fixed. It’s like an unfinished magic trick: the magician having led the old world by the hand into a cabinet and shut the door. When the door opened, the old world was gone — and he hasn’t brought it back. Now there’s just an absence and unfulfilled expectation.

The shops are open, the restaurants too, but all feel out of kilter. Masks are mandatory and everywhere. Plastic screens, hazard tape, visors on the faces of people behind counters and serving at tills. The official message, still repeated daily, is that all of this is necessary and unavoidable and we do as we are told.

There is no mention of curves any more and we do seem to have saved our NHS, right enough. But the old world, vanished by magic, seems further away than ever. Maybe there will be a vaccine. Lockdowns — local and national — are still floating around out there like so much bad weather over the horizon and possibly coming our way.

We read and hear about all sorts of possibilities. Perhaps the over-50s will have to shield themselves . . . or perhaps the over-40s. Since I’m in both of those camps, the prospect of being sent indoors for some open-ended term of detention is an ever-present thought.

I realised, years ago now, that I am by nature a dissenter. I was a good wee boy at school but in the years since I have found my inner disobedience. I do not like being told. I have begun to wonder about concepts such as social contracts and uncodified constitutions. Maybe we need a review, a serious and honest review, of those ties that bind us to the institutions of the state. Faced with the threat of contagion we, willingly, for the most part, surrendered our liberties.

We weren’t asked. We said farewell to hugs and kisses and holding hands, to gatherings, weddings and festivals and to proper funerals for the dearly loved. We accepted that travel was no longer freely available. We accepted that the cheek-by-jowl, shoulder-to-shoulder closeness of the pub was no more and that the intimate atmosphere of the restaurant was a pleasure of the past.

Our children face altered futures, curtailed horizons. Unknown numbers of people, out of sight and out of mind, are doubtless struggling with the realities of isolation, loneliness and a host of emotional pressures taking invisible tolls. As a society, we have taken all of this on board, riveted on our self-forged shackles, and now here we are, in the new place, the altered reality of our own making.

Now the R-word is out again — not the mysterious “effective reproduction number” related to the virus, but the deepest recession for 100 years. The solution we had no longer feels like a solution. Instead, it is like the sort of bodged repair I affect with gaffer tape and sealant when what I really need is a plumber. The economy and wider society are bleeding to death. The taxes will go up next, as those in charge look for money to pay for more of whatever this is. Is this hollowed-out life worth paying for? Some accounts cannot be settled with cash or credit cards.

A huge life altering event has huge life altering consequences isn't a surprise really.

Of course the old world isn't coming back, of course we don't know the future consequences. But we do have choices. I'm very concerned about the lonliness and mental health consequences of lockdown so I've volunteered more of my time doing phonelink speaking to vulnerable people. If society took the same attitude of working out how to help vulnerable people in the new world we'd be in a better spot than if we all thought "oh we need to go back to how things were".

[Bimbowomxn]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

[Bimbowomxn]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?


Why would people pretend otherwise ?


The average age of death in the UK is higher than average life expectancy. This does actually have meaning , and should effect policy decisions.

[Sandstorm]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

1 in a million chance of death. However Covid19 also leaves long term damage to people under 40 who don’t die. This is a global issue more important than just “excess deaths” on a spreadsheet

[Bimbowomxn]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

1 in a million chance of death. However Covid19 also leaves long term damage to people under 40 who don’t die. This is a global issue more important than just “excess deaths” on a spreadsheet

Again in very vey very low numbers and recoverable (the article about the athletes expressed that).

For the young it isn’t dangerous in any way. Driving cars is killing and maiming far higher %’s of young. Many more men under 45 have committed suicide in the last 6 months than died of covid.

Why are you so desperate to portray the virus otherwise.

[Insane_Homer]

2 people died of covid yesterday across the whole UK’s hospitals.

So let's see what the real number for pillar 1 is in a few days time for 'yesterday'.

So the Death count for the 18th, originally reported as your 2 "yesterday" (aka the day before), is now, in today's released numbers = 7.

I wonder what it might be tomorrow?

[Bimbowomxn]

2 people died of covid yesterday across the whole UK’s hospitals.

So let's see what the real number for pillar 1 is in a few days time for 'yesterday'.

So the Death count for the 18th, originally reported as your 2 "yesterday" (aka the day before), is now, in today's released numbers = 7.

I wonder what it might be tomorrow?

Still very low would be my guess.

[Enzedder]

Average deaths are way down on the 5 year average for the 8th week running.

I strange but welcome phenomenon around the world. With a lot less interaction, there has been a lot less spreading of viruses (e.g. flu here) and reduced deaths.

Suicides are down dramatically here too for some reason

[Bimbowomxn]

Average deaths are way down on the 5 year average for the 8th week running.

I strange but welcome phenomenon around the world. With a lot less interaction, there has been a lot less spreading of viruses (e.g. flu here) and reduced deaths.

Suicides are down dramatically here too for some reason

It’s more the case we had excess deaths amongst our most vulnerable for 2 months prior.

[Enzedder]

4 months +

[Bimbowomxn]

4 months +

Not here, April and May were the excess death months.

[Bimbowomxn]

2 people died of covid yesterday across the whole UK’s hospitals.

So let's see what the real number for pillar 1 is in a few days time for 'yesterday'.

So the Death count for the 18th, originally reported as your 2 "yesterday" (aka the day before), is now, in today's released numbers = 7.

I wonder what it might be tomorrow?

NHS England reported 5 more COVID-19 related hospital deaths today, spread across 3 dates.

3 = 18th August (2 days ago)
1 = 15th August (5 days ago)
1 = 13th August (7 days ago)

[Saint]

Average deaths are way down on the 5 year average for the 8th week running.

I strange but welcome phenomenon around the world. With a lot less interaction, there has been a lot less spreading of viruses (e.g. flu here) and reduced deaths.

Suicides are down dramatically here too for some reason

I was looking at the numbers today. They're down, but they're not "way down". Marginally down would be a better description- 100-200 fewer deaths per week, compared to as much as 6,000 higher during the peak COVUD deaths

8 weeks in a row definitely constitutes a trend, but the difference from the average is low enough that it just is in line with the average

[Northern Lights]

So what's the vibe on here these days regarding lockdowns, everyone still happy that is the correct policy response to any uptick in infections detected or are we actually going to try and take account of the enormous economic cost of the lockdowns whether thay is regional or national and the impaxct on our day to day life and freedoms?

This was a comment piece in the Sunday Times:

Neil Oliver: old world has gone up in a puff of smoke — and won’t reappear
Life before virus vanished as if it were an incomplete magic trick
Neil Oliver
Sunday August 16 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

Do you ever get the feeling that something, somewhere has gone badly wrong? The kids went back to school last week and I realise now that I was expecting some sort of sense of relief would follow. It wasn’t about wanting them out of the house — far from it — but more the thought that when they took that step towards their own normal, there would be a lessening of the general anxiety. That did not happen, however. Off they trooped to school and yet the feeling of something having gone wrong remained, like a cold, heavy stone in the tripes.

When the virus arrived and we locked down for the good of the nation — to “flatten the curve” and “save the NHS” — there was an undeniable sense of community spirit about it all. The sense of all being in it together was almost — almost — palpable. Clapping on Thursdays. Now, half a year later, the atmosphere is different and the landscape seems altered, and permanently. It is as though the water level has risen, subtly insinuating itself into places where before it was dry.

Everything looks different, feels different, is different. What had been billed as a short-term state of emergency, requiring a burst of the old Blitz spirit, fossilised into something hard, fixed. It’s like an unfinished magic trick: the magician having led the old world by the hand into a cabinet and shut the door. When the door opened, the old world was gone — and he hasn’t brought it back. Now there’s just an absence and unfulfilled expectation.

The shops are open, the restaurants too, but all feel out of kilter. Masks are mandatory and everywhere. Plastic screens, hazard tape, visors on the faces of people behind counters and serving at tills. The official message, still repeated daily, is that all of this is necessary and unavoidable and we do as we are told.

There is no mention of curves any more and we do seem to have saved our NHS, right enough. But the old world, vanished by magic, seems further away than ever. Maybe there will be a vaccine. Lockdowns — local and national — are still floating around out there like so much bad weather over the horizon and possibly coming our way.

We read and hear about all sorts of possibilities. Perhaps the over-50s will have to shield themselves . . . or perhaps the over-40s. Since I’m in both of those camps, the prospect of being sent indoors for some open-ended term of detention is an ever-present thought.

I realised, years ago now, that I am by nature a dissenter. I was a good wee boy at school but in the years since I have found my inner disobedience. I do not like being told. I have begun to wonder about concepts such as social contracts and uncodified constitutions. Maybe we need a review, a serious and honest review, of those ties that bind us to the institutions of the state. Faced with the threat of contagion we, willingly, for the most part, surrendered our liberties.

We weren’t asked. We said farewell to hugs and kisses and holding hands, to gatherings, weddings and festivals and to proper funerals for the dearly loved. We accepted that travel was no longer freely available. We accepted that the cheek-by-jowl, shoulder-to-shoulder closeness of the pub was no more and that the intimate atmosphere of the restaurant was a pleasure of the past.

Our children face altered futures, curtailed horizons. Unknown numbers of people, out of sight and out of mind, are doubtless struggling with the realities of isolation, loneliness and a host of emotional pressures taking invisible tolls. As a society, we have taken all of this on board, riveted on our self-forged shackles, and now here we are, in the new place, the altered reality of our own making.

Now the R-word is out again — not the mysterious “effective reproduction number” related to the virus, but the deepest recession for 100 years. The solution we had no longer feels like a solution. Instead, it is like the sort of bodged repair I affect with gaffer tape and sealant when what I really need is a plumber. The economy and wider society are bleeding to death. The taxes will go up next, as those in charge look for money to pay for more of whatever this is. Is this hollowed-out life worth paying for? Some accounts cannot be settled with cash or credit cards.

A huge life altering event has huge life altering consequences isn't a surprise really.

Of course the old world isn't coming back, of course we don't know the future consequences. But we do have choices. I'm very concerned about the lonliness and mental health consequences of lockdown so I've volunteered more of my time doing phonelink speaking to vulnerable people. If society took the same attitude of working out how to help vulnerable people in the new world we'd be in a better spot than if we all thought "oh we need to go back to how things were".

Life has undoubtedly changed but i certainly dont like the move to an authortarian government and fail to see the need for this. I agree with Bimbo that the risk to health on the Under 65's is being overstated, quite simply there is a risk to life, that doesnt mean we dont take precautions to mitigate against risk whether that is wearing seat belts or wearing a mask, we do, well the majority do there will always be nuggets that dont, such is the fabric of life.

An example of the overreach for me is with the local lockdown we are still in, in Aberdeen. The police have been going into the carparks of golf clubs number plate checking to see if anyone has travelled more than 5 miles, this for me is a very worrying heavy handed approach to dealing with the pandemic and the restrictions being placed on our lives.

[Northern Lights]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

Wow, talk about overplaying your hand.

[robmatic]

Average deaths are way down on the 5 year average for the 8th week running.

I strange but welcome phenomenon around the world. With a lot less interaction, there has been a lot less spreading of viruses (e.g. flu here) and reduced deaths.

Suicides are down dramatically here too for some reason

I was looking at the numbers today. They're down, but they're not "way down". Marginally down would be a better description- 100-200 fewer deaths per week, compared to as much as 6,000 higher during the peak COVUD deaths

8 weeks in a row definitely constitutes a trend, but the difference from the average is low enough that it just is in line with the average

It's to be expected really, given what happened in care homes where some of the people wouldn't have had long left anyway. There are still almost 53,000 excess deaths for the year so far though.

[robmatic]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

Wow, talk about overplaying your hand.

I'm not yet 40 so I know that I am very unlikely to die from covid19, but I do know someone roughly my age who spent 20 days in intensive care with it and I am very keen to avoid that experience.

[Biffer]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

1 in a million chance of death. However Covid19 also leaves long term damage to people under 40 who don’t die. This is a global issue more important than just “excess deaths” on a spreadsheet

28 people under the age of 45 have died in Scotland.

There are not 28 million people under 45 in Scotland.

[Northern Lights]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

Wow, talk about overplaying your hand.

I'm not yet 40 so I know that I am very unlikely to die from covid19, but I do know someone roughly my age who spent 20 days in intensive care with it and I am very keen to avoid that experience.

Yes and i know people who died in their 20's from a range of different things, some through illness others through accidents. What's your point, crater the economy, destroy our way of life because there is a minute risk that you will end up in intensive care with this?

[Northern Lights]

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

1 in a million chance of death. However Covid19 also leaves long term damage to people under 40 who don’t die. This is a global issue more important than just “excess deaths” on a spreadsheet

28 people under the age of 45 have died in Scotland.

There are not 28 million people under 45 in Scotland.

A lot more under 45's have died of other things in the same time frame

[JM2K6]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

That's a bimbo-fact, not a real one. And the definition of "healthy" needs to be stretched pretty far there.

[Enzedder]

What's your point, crater the economy, destroy our way of life because there is a minute risk that you will end up in intensive care with this?

Most economists say that allowing the virus free rein will create more economic damage than a successful lock-down. Seems to be the case in Sweden

Sweden recorded its highest death toll in 150 years in the first half of 2020, in a count not seen since an infamous famine in 1869.

The Scandinavian nation, which refused to implement a Covid-19 lockdown, recorded 51,405 deaths between January and June, according to the country's official statistics office.

That figure is around 6500, or 15 per cent, more than the same time period last year.

During the first six months of 1869, a total of 55,431 people died when Sweden was hit by widespread starvation due to poor harvests. The severe famine saw many desperate citizens move to the US.

SWEDEN'S CONTROVERSIAL APPROACH TO COVID-19

When most of Europe was in government-enforced lockdown, Sweden did things differently.

None of the mandatory lockdowns, police patrolling the streets, or fines for being out of the house were to be found in the Scandinavian country, which instead adopted a controversial "herd immunity" approach to battling the Covid-19 pandemic.

The country's unique strategy to deal with the deadly coronavirus without tanking the economy was to keep schools, cafes, restaurants and shops open, while encouraging people to voluntarily distance themselves and work from home.

The idea was that the country would achieve "herd immunity" – a level of the disease where most of the population has been infected, and subsequently developed immunity, which would in turn stop the virus from spreading.

The man behind this strategy is Sweden's chief epidemiologist, Dr Anders Tegnell, the creator and driver of the national Covid-19 strategy.

Tegnell was banking on at least 40 per cent of the Swedish population becoming immune to Covid-19.

Back in May, he told The Financial Times: "In the autumn there will be a second wave.

"Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low. But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?"

But a June study found the number of Swedes who have formed antibodies to the virus is smaller than expected, dashing hopes that herd immunity could be achieved.

The study, carried out by the country's Public Health Agency, found that just 6.1 per cent of the country's population had developed coronavirus antibodies by late May. This figure falls far short of Tegnell's prediction.

Experts have said achieving herd immunity would require at least 60 per cent of the population to become immune to the virus.

The virus has already killed more than 5800 people, giving Sweden one of the world's highest per capita mortality rates.

To compare those figures with other Scandinavian countries, Denmark has recorded 621 deaths, Finland has recorded 334 deaths, and Norway 262.

[Northern Lights]

What's your point, crater the economy, destroy our way of life because there is a minute risk that you will end up in intensive care with this?

Most economists say that allowing the virus free rein will create more economic damage than a successful lock-down. Seems to be the case in Sweden

Nope, some economist believe that not most. They are basing this on the response of differing states in the US with their response to the Spanish Flu.

Sweden although had a high death toll in care homes, like most of Europe, now has the virus case load and hospital admissions very much under control with encouraging numbers. They have suffered less economic damage than most of Europe but on a par with other Scandanavian countries, still a recession but their economy like the other Scandis is heavily export relient so not a surprise. Sweden managed to maintain a much healthier balance to their way of life, they just fucked up with the care homes, like we did but then unfortunately those in care homes are in an extremely vulnerable state, covid or otherwise anyway.

The problem as i see it for those like NZ that locked down so hard is that you havent gone through the pain that others have and if/when it gets hold it will rip through you guys like the rest of us, you are just delaying the inevitable, obviously just my opinion. We may get a vaccine that proves effective, early results are encouraging but the fastest vaccine ever develop i believe was for mumps which took 3/4 years.

Is Sweden’s coronavirus strategy working after all?
COMMENTS
By Natalie Huet & Per Bergfors Nyberg • last updated: 28/07/2020

A woman wears a face mask at a bus stop, with an information sign asking people to keep social distance due to the corona pandemic, in Stockholm, Friday, June 26, 2020.
A woman wears a face mask at a bus stop, with an information sign asking people to keep social distance due to the corona pandemic, in Stockholm, Friday, June 26, 2020. - Copyright Stina Stjernkvist/TT News Agency via AP
SHARE THIS ARTICLE

embed
facebook
twitter
flipboard
mail icon

TEXT SIZE
AaAa
Sweden famously took a totally different approach to its Nordic neighbours in trying to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The Swedish strategy allowed people to keep living largely as normal. Stores and restaurants remained open – so too did many schools.

With a COVID-19 death toll of 5,700, Sweden’s mortality rate from the disease is now around a quarter higher than that of the United States, when adjusted for population size.

However, authorities insist that the number of deaths has considerably dropped in recent weeks.


"We've actually seen a clearly declining trend in the number of patients in intensive care and also in the number of deaths since the middle of April," said Anna Mia Ekström, clinical professor of global infectious disease epidemiology at Stockholm’s Karolinksa Institute.

Coronavirus: European countries tighten controls amid COVID-19 second wave fears
Coronavirus: COVID-19 infections and deaths - latest data
Scientists in Portugal create reusable mask that disables coronavirus upon contact with fabric
Earlier in the month, the number of coronavirus patients in a hospital in the capital had fallen below 100 for the first time since early March, according to The Local.

"Now we see one or two deaths a day and very few persons admitted to ICU (intensive care units)," said Jan Albert, a professor of infectious disease control at the Karolinska Institute.

"We are much better off now than we were in April," he told Euronews.

His colleague Ekström said that with the summer holidays, fewer people are at work or in public transport, and they’re spending more time outdoors, so the virus is finding fewer opportunities to spread.

So how close is Sweden to possibly reaching herd immunity?
We don’t know at this point. Scientists are still trying to figure out whether immunity from the new coronavirus can even be reached – and for how long.

Ekström noted that the reproduction number of the epidemic – or R number, which measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to – has now fallen in Sweden to around 0.6, meaning transmission is declining.

The number of people with antibodies against the new coronavirus, meanwhile, is increasing.

Data published by Sweden’s public health agency in June showed that about 10 per cent of people in Stockholm – the nation's worst affected area – had developed antibodies to COVID-19, more than anywhere else in the country.

Coronavirus: Hard-hit Sweden admits it could have battled COVID-19 better
Coronavirus: Swedes not welcome as neighbours open their borders
Analysis: Is fragile support for Sweden's COVID-19 strategy fracturing?
A recent study from the Karolinska Institute also suggests that people testing negative for coronavirus antibodies may still have some immunity, through specific T-cells that identify and destroy infected cells.

Still, whether Sweden is on track to greater immunity to the new coronavirus than other countries remains one big question mark at this stage, says the Karolinska Institute's Albert.

"There are so many unknown factors about how many actually develop antibodies and other types of immune responses after going through the disease, and how many will be required to have had the disease in order to see herd immunity," he explained.

"We know that we've had more cases in Sweden than for instance in Norway and Denmark and Finland, our neighbouring countries, many more. But whether that means that we are on our way to herd immunity is a big unknown."

For now, Sweden’s light-touch approach to tackling the coronavirus pandemic has drawn attention and criticism from around the world.

It has also weighed on the popularity ratings of Sweden's prime minister, Stefan Lofven, who announced last month an inquiry into the government's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

[Bimbowomxn]

What do you mean "clearly not"? Every infection carries with it the risk of serious health problems if not death. It's very clearly not "one in a million".

To anyone under 40 and healthy it’s 1 in a million. You know that right ?

That's a bimbo-fact, not a real one. And the definition of "healthy" needs to be stretched pretty far there.

It’s an actual measurable fact. As in statistically true.

Even in unhealthy under 40’s the chances of death are miniscule. Nothing needs “stretching” unless you’ve an agenda.

The virus doesn’t kill the young or even the older healthy.

Lose weight should be the public health message.

[robmatic]

Wow, talk about overplaying your hand.

I'm not yet 40 so I know that I am very unlikely to die from covid19, but I do know someone roughly my age who spent 20 days in intensive care with it and I am very keen to avoid that experience.

Yes and i know people who died in their 20's from a range of different things, some through illness others through accidents. What's your point, crater the economy, destroy our way of life because there is a minute risk that you will end up in intensive care with this?

I don't really class it as a minute risk if it's severely affecting people I know, and to be honest I'm not so emotionally attached to GDP figures that I would risk myself or family members for the sake of the economy.

[Northern Lights]

I'm not yet 40 so I know that I am very unlikely to die from covid19, but I do know someone roughly my age who spent 20 days in intensive care with it and I am very keen to avoid that experience.

Yes and i know people who died in their 20's from a range of different things, some through illness others through accidents. What's your point, crater the economy, destroy our way of life because there is a minute risk that you will end up in intensive care with this?

I don't really class it as a minute risk if it's severely affecting people I know, and to be honest I'm not so emotionally attached to GDP figures that I would risk myself or family members for the sake of the economy.

You will be without a job and living on benefits, it is not some abstract concept the economy imploding, you might think it is but far more harm will be done to people's health from a significantly contracted economy. I know far more people now facing serious financial hardship over loss of earnings than have been affected by this virus.

I have people i know who have debilitated by a range of different things from sporting accidents, to lasting effects from malari to car accidents to other weird and wonderful crap they have picked up over the years.

[I like neeps]

Life has undoubtedly changed but i certainly dont like the move to an authortarian government and fail to see the need for this. I agree with Bimbo that the risk to health on the Under 65's is being overstated, quite simply there is a risk to life, that doesnt mean we dont take precautions to mitigate against risk whether that is wearing seat belts or wearing a mask, we do, well the majority do there will always be nuggets that dont, such is the fabric of life.

An example of the overreach for me is with the local lockdown we are still in, in Aberdeen. The police have been going into the carparks of golf clubs number plate checking to see if anyone has travelled more than 5 miles, this for me is a very worrying heavy handed approach to dealing with the pandemic and the restrictions being placed on our lives.

Not sure the risks are being overstated. I think everyone accepts under a certain age without underlying health problems you're extremely unlikely to die. However, it's about keeping other people safe. If I live in a society where I'm going into an office then into a bar and into a gym without any restrictions I wouldn't have the confidence to go to say spend Christmas with my Dad - because he is in a high risk category. I'm not worried for myself - I'm a bit worried about the unknown long term effects some people seem to have (yes even younger people) with lung scarring et al.

Agree the checking number plates in Aberdeen golf courses is ridiculous. But most of the restrictions aren't really that authoritarian. You wear masks - like you say you wear seatbelts and you stand in a slightly longer queue. That's more the Sweden model from the start with everyone was a fan of.