What's going on in Ukraine?

[Ovals]

More evidence that Russian forces have started to get their act together and are edging forward in the East.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2 ... -russians/

[Raggs]

OMFG, this is actual Russian propaganda from Tsargrad TV which is a channel run by the Russian Orthodox Church. As much as many of us feel depressed about the state of the UK this is priceless

Obviously this is a transcript in translation

I'm half tempted to believe that this has partially come about from the phrase "eat the rich".

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Putin faces rare public condemnation in Russian legislative assembly

As is well documented, open dissent in Russia was already rare and the invasion of Ukraine appears to have made authorities' response to any form of protest even more ruthless.

So footage emerging today, from the Legislative Assembly of the Primorsky Territory, represents a hugely isolated example of public condemnation for Vladimir Putin's regime.

In the video, Leonid Vasyukevich, a member of the Communist Party faction and speaking on behalf of four colleagues, demanded the president end the war in Ukraine and withdraw troops from its territory.

"We understand that if our country does not stop the military operation, there will be even more orphans in our country," he reportedly said.

"During the military operation, young people who could be of great benefit to our country are dying and becoming disabled."

The governor and speaker of the assembly told him to halt his address before ordering his removal from the room, according to Russian media.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news ... s-12541713

[FalseBayFC]

There've been some reports about LPR and DPR militiamen who are close to mutiny. I tend to think that the Russian effort will culminate as a result of a cascading collapse of morale or will to fight. These guys have been press ganged and thrown into the grinder. At some stage the Russian manpower issue will become insurmountable. I can't see this conflict lasting beyond the end of this year. The Russians don't have a strong enough ideological cause to underpin their effort. The Ukrainians do I think,

[fishfoodie]

Agree with that.

The Russians committed many of their best units to the initial invasion, to get their lightening win, & all the signs are that the leadership believed their own bullshit. Instead these units got obliterated, as they got isolated, waiting for relief, that was stuck in vast traffic jams.

Despite being numerically, a large army, there's no depth in the fighting units, so now they're cobbling together new BTGs from whats left of the old ones, supplemented with raw conscripts, & museum pieces for new armor.

The human wave tactic isn't going to work with troops who's moral is at rock bottom, & is badly led, & badly equipped, which all causes a negative feedback loop on moral.

The bottom line is that the longer this drags on, the weaker the Russian forces get, & the stronger the Ukrainian forces get.

[fishfoodie]

What are the odds ?



One of the "injured", soldiers the Vlad took time out of his busy schedule to visit, looks exactly like one of Vlads security detail.

[Flockwitt]

Agree with that.

The Russians committed many of their best units to the initial invasion, to get their lightening win, & all the signs are that the leadership believed their own bullshit. Instead these units got obliterated, as they got isolated, waiting for relief, that was stuck in vast traffic jams.

Despite being numerically, a large army, there's no depth in the fighting units, so now they're cobbling together new BTGs from whats left of the old ones, supplemented with raw conscripts, & museum pieces for new armor.

The human wave tactic isn't going to work with troops who's moral is at rock bottom, & is badly led, & badly equipped, which all causes a negative feedback loop on moral.

The bottom line is that the longer this drags on, the weaker the Russian forces get, & the stronger the Ukrainian forces get.

Yes and no. That's the accepted conclusion with Ukraine's enormous retraining militia. However, the point is this artillery war is incredibly one sided. Apart from instances like the fiasco river crossing I'd say the Ukrainians are suffering a higher casualty rate than the Russians. If the Ukrainians are currently losing over 100 men KIA a day according to most estimates it means they losing up to 500 men/day out of combat between injured, prisoners et al. That is an awful price to pay to keep the current positions. And losing that for the next two months while the reserves get trained and equiped is an awful price to pay.

[FalseBayFC]

Agree with that.

The Russians committed many of their best units to the initial invasion, to get their lightening win, & all the signs are that the leadership believed their own bullshit. Instead these units got obliterated, as they got isolated, waiting for relief, that was stuck in vast traffic jams.

Despite being numerically, a large army, there's no depth in the fighting units, so now they're cobbling together new BTGs from whats left of the old ones, supplemented with raw conscripts, & museum pieces for new armor.

The human wave tactic isn't going to work with troops who's moral is at rock bottom, & is badly led, & badly equipped, which all causes a negative feedback loop on moral.

The bottom line is that the longer this drags on, the weaker the Russian forces get, & the stronger the Ukrainian forces get.

Yes and no. That's the accepted conclusion with Ukraine's enormous retraining militia. However, the point is this artillery war is incredibly one sided. Apart from instances like the fiasco river crossing I'd say the Ukrainians are suffering a higher casualty rate than the Russians. If the Ukrainians are currently losing over 100 men KIA a day according to most estimates it means they losing up to 500 men/day out of combat between injured, prisoners et al. That is an awful price to pay to keep the current positions. And losing that for the next two months while the reserves get trained and equiped is an awful price to pay.

I think the casualty stats are being used quite cleverly by the Ukies as part of their propaganda campaign. They're playing the information game really well and increasing anxiety in the Twitter space for example results in a lot of political pressure on Western governments. They'd not easily fudge the civilian casualty stats but the 100 KIA day has drawn some skepticism. The fact that they've committed to hardening defences in Sevierodenetsk suggests they're not panicking and have some faith in their ability to draw the Russkies into a battle of attrition in the East.

[fishfoodie]

Agree with that.

The Russians committed many of their best units to the initial invasion, to get their lightening win, & all the signs are that the leadership believed their own bullshit. Instead these units got obliterated, as they got isolated, waiting for relief, that was stuck in vast traffic jams.

Despite being numerically, a large army, there's no depth in the fighting units, so now they're cobbling together new BTGs from whats left of the old ones, supplemented with raw conscripts, & museum pieces for new armor.

The human wave tactic isn't going to work with troops who's moral is at rock bottom, & is badly led, & badly equipped, which all causes a negative feedback loop on moral.

The bottom line is that the longer this drags on, the weaker the Russian forces get, & the stronger the Ukrainian forces get.

Yes and no. That's the accepted conclusion with Ukraine's enormous retraining militia. However, the point is this artillery war is incredibly one sided. Apart from instances like the fiasco river crossing I'd say the Ukrainians are suffering a higher casualty rate than the Russians. If the Ukrainians are currently losing over 100 men KIA a day according to most estimates it means they losing up to 500 men/day out of combat between injured, prisoners et al. That is an awful price to pay to keep the current positions. And losing that for the next two months while the reserves get trained and equiped is an awful price to pay.

It's not like the Russians can just park their artillery at a location, & sit there & shell positions day in, & day out. If they do, they'll be dead before their 5th or 6th round hits the target !

They have to shoot & scoot,or else the combination of drones, & longer reach artillery that the Ukrainians now have will obliterate them with counter battery fire. And of course once they have to S&S, they also have to have engineers out creating positions for them, & have all their logistics working because instead of one fire base, they have to keep a dozen going & move around between them in an unpredictable way; all of which massively reduces their effectiveness, but keeps them alive.

[Flockwitt]

Agree with that.

The Russians committed many of their best units to the initial invasion, to get their lightening win, & all the signs are that the leadership believed their own bullshit. Instead these units got obliterated, as they got isolated, waiting for relief, that was stuck in vast traffic jams.

Despite being numerically, a large army, there's no depth in the fighting units, so now they're cobbling together new BTGs from whats left of the old ones, supplemented with raw conscripts, & museum pieces for new armor.

The human wave tactic isn't going to work with troops who's moral is at rock bottom, & is badly led, & badly equipped, which all causes a negative feedback loop on moral.

The bottom line is that the longer this drags on, the weaker the Russian forces get, & the stronger the Ukrainian forces get.

Yes and no. That's the accepted conclusion with Ukraine's enormous retraining militia. However, the point is this artillery war is incredibly one sided. Apart from instances like the fiasco river crossing I'd say the Ukrainians are suffering a higher casualty rate than the Russians. If the Ukrainians are currently losing over 100 men KIA a day according to most estimates it means they losing up to 500 men/day out of combat between injured, prisoners et al. That is an awful price to pay to keep the current positions. And losing that for the next two months while the reserves get trained and equiped is an awful price to pay.

It's not like the Russians can just park their artillery at a location, & sit there & shell positions day in, & day out. If they do, they'll be dead before their 5th or 6th round hits the target !

They have to shoot & scoot,or else the combination of drones, & longer reach artillery that the Ukrainians now have will obliterate them with counter battery fire. And of course once they have to S&S, they also have to have engineers out creating positions for them, & have all their logistics working because instead of one fire base, they have to keep a dozen going & move around between them in an unpredictable way; all of which massively reduces their effectiveness, but keeps them alive.

That is wishful thinking about what will happen. Right now the reality is different. To quote what I posted at the other place.

The guy Denys pointed out that for every shell the Ukrainian artillery fires, the Russians are firing 20. He's pushing for his side but even if you cut that figure in half it's still bad news. Right now the Ukrainians are suffering constant heavy losses of experienced troops every single day. This war of attrition isn't as one sided as people would like it to be.

The limited number of foreign artillery pieces the Ukrainians currently have is doing squat in the bigger picture. The Russian artillery units have their own proven quality drones. There's a definite equation that matches mass vs accuracy in artillery effectiveness. The Russians have the necessary mass to be effective.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

The guy Denys pointed out that for every shell the Ukrainian artillery fires, the Russians are firing 20. He's pushing for his side but even if you cut that figure in half it's still bad news. Right now the Ukrainians are suffering constant heavy losses of experienced troops every single day. This war of attrition isn't as one sided as people would like it to be.

Yeah, but what are the 20 Russian shells doing ?

They're turning buildings into rubble, & putting holes in fields, while the Ukrainian one is aimed, the Russians are doing with artillery, what they tried with tanks, & other armor; throw enough of them into the battle,& hope that sheer numbers makes up for the inferiority of their equipment & men.

I'm not saying that this isn't bad for the Ukrainians; but they're fighting for their Country & their families, & they're now months into mobilizing every able bodied member of their population .... the Russians are defending right to loot their Country, & hoping that the Ukrainians break, before they run out of ammo, & equipment.

[Flockwitt]

The guy Denys pointed out that for every shell the Ukrainian artillery fires, the Russians are firing 20. He's pushing for his side but even if you cut that figure in half it's still bad news. Right now the Ukrainians are suffering constant heavy losses of experienced troops every single day. This war of attrition isn't as one sided as people would like it to be.

Yeah, but what are the 20 Russian shells doing ?

They're turning buildings into rubble, & putting holes in fields, while the Ukrainian one is aimed, the Russians are doing with artillery, what they tried with tanks, & other armor; throw enough of them into the battle,& hope that sheer numbers makes up for the inferiority of their equipment & men.

I'm not saying that this isn't bad for the Ukrainians; but they're fighting for their Country & their families, & they're now months into mobilizing every able bodied member of their population .... the Russians are defending right to loot their Country, & hoping that the Ukrainians break, before they run out of ammo, & equipment.

Those rubble scenes are what you see on twitter. What you don't see is the Ukrainians getting caught in the open as they are driven out of their trenches and have to retreat in this field position war that is currently happening. Artillery was by far the biggest killer of men in WWI, not machine guns. That equation is equally relevant now, even more so. Sheer numbers when it comes to artillery works. Especially when they are trained and coordinated which the Russians are. There's nothing inferior about the Russian artillery units. Their drones and use of drones are better than the Ukranians.

Not wanting to labour the point. I'm just trying to say things are definitely not all rosy for the good guys.

[fishfoodie]

The guy Denys pointed out that for every shell the Ukrainian artillery fires, the Russians are firing 20. He's pushing for his side but even if you cut that figure in half it's still bad news. Right now the Ukrainians are suffering constant heavy losses of experienced troops every single day. This war of attrition isn't as one sided as people would like it to be.

Yeah, but what are the 20 Russian shells doing ?

They're turning buildings into rubble, & putting holes in fields, while the Ukrainian one is aimed, the Russians are doing with artillery, what they tried with tanks, & other armor; throw enough of them into the battle,& hope that sheer numbers makes up for the inferiority of their equipment & men.

I'm not saying that this isn't bad for the Ukrainians; but they're fighting for their Country & their families, & they're now months into mobilizing every able bodied member of their population .... the Russians are defending right to loot their Country, & hoping that the Ukrainians break, before they run out of ammo, & equipment.

Those rubble scenes are what you see on twitter. What you don't see is the Ukrainians getting caught in the open as they are driven out of their trenches and have to retreat in this field position war that is currently happening. Artillery was by far the biggest killer of men in WWI, not machine guns. That equation is equally relevant now, even more so. Sheer numbers when it comes to artillery works. Especially when they are trained and coordinated which the Russians are. There's nothing inferior about the Russian artillery units. Their drones and use of drones are better than the Ukranians.

Not wanting to labour the point. I'm just trying to say things are definitely not all rosy for the good guys.

Understood, I just conscious that nobody gave the Ukrainians a snowballs chance in hell at the start of this, & they've demonstrated how resilient they are, & I guess I'm hoping that continues.

[Flockwitt]

^

[Ovals]

The guy Denys pointed out that for every shell the Ukrainian artillery fires, the Russians are firing 20. He's pushing for his side but even if you cut that figure in half it's still bad news. Right now the Ukrainians are suffering constant heavy losses of experienced troops every single day. This war of attrition isn't as one sided as people would like it to be.

Yeah, but what are the 20 Russian shells doing ?

They're turning buildings into rubble, & putting holes in fields, while the Ukrainian one is aimed, the Russians are doing with artillery, what they tried with tanks, & other armor; throw enough of them into the battle,& hope that sheer numbers makes up for the inferiority of their equipment & men.

I'm not saying that this isn't bad for the Ukrainians; but they're fighting for their Country & their families, & they're now months into mobilizing every able bodied member of their population .... the Russians are defending right to loot their Country, & hoping that the Ukrainians break, before they run out of ammo, & equipment.

Those rubble scenes are what you see on twitter. What you don't see is the Ukrainians getting caught in the open as they are driven out of their trenches and have to retreat in this field position war that is currently happening. Artillery was by far the biggest killer of men in WWI, not machine guns. That equation is equally relevant now, even more so. Sheer numbers when it comes to artillery works. Especially when they are trained and coordinated which the Russians are. There's nothing inferior about the Russian artillery units. Their drones and use of drones are better than the Ukranians.

Not wanting to labour the point. I'm just trying to say things are definitely not all rosy for the good guys.

It's why the Ukrainian (and USA) are keen for the West to supply longer range artillery and rockets - and why the Russians are claiming that such supply would be a major escalation - and, of course, it would give the Ukrainians the ability to strike deep into Russia itself.

[Flockwitt]

Yeah, but what are the 20 Russian shells doing ?

They're turning buildings into rubble, & putting holes in fields, while the Ukrainian one is aimed, the Russians are doing with artillery, what they tried with tanks, & other armor; throw enough of them into the battle,& hope that sheer numbers makes up for the inferiority of their equipment & men.

I'm not saying that this isn't bad for the Ukrainians; but they're fighting for their Country & their families, & they're now months into mobilizing every able bodied member of their population .... the Russians are defending right to loot their Country, & hoping that the Ukrainians break, before they run out of ammo, & equipment.

Those rubble scenes are what you see on twitter. What you don't see is the Ukrainians getting caught in the open as they are driven out of their trenches and have to retreat in this field position war that is currently happening. Artillery was by far the biggest killer of men in WWI, not machine guns. That equation is equally relevant now, even more so. Sheer numbers when it comes to artillery works. Especially when they are trained and coordinated which the Russians are. There's nothing inferior about the Russian artillery units. Their drones and use of drones are better than the Ukranians.

Not wanting to labour the point. I'm just trying to say things are definitely not all rosy for the good guys.

It's why the Ukrainian (and USA) are keen for the West to supply longer range artillery and rockets - and why the Russians are claiming that such supply would be a major escalation - and, of course, it would give the Ukrainians the ability to strike deep into Russia itself.

And right now its all just talk and getting stuff ready for shipment let alone men trained on the systems and into the field which is months away at best. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting the living shit blown out of them.

[Hellraiser]

The US has agreed to send HIMARS to Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

The part of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that remained under the Moscow Patriarchate after 1991 has just declared independence from the ROC. It's hard to understate just how important this is in an ecumenical context. The ROC has literally just lost about a third of it's number.

[TheFrog]

Those rubble scenes are what you see on twitter. What you don't see is the Ukrainians getting caught in the open as they are driven out of their trenches and have to retreat in this field position war that is currently happening. Artillery was by far the biggest killer of men in WWI, not machine guns. That equation is equally relevant now, even more so. Sheer numbers when it comes to artillery works. Especially when they are trained and coordinated which the Russians are. There's nothing inferior about the Russian artillery units. Their drones and use of drones are better than the Ukranians.

Not wanting to labour the point. I'm just trying to say things are definitely not all rosy for the good guys.

It's why the Ukrainian (and USA) are keen for the West to supply longer range artillery and rockets - and why the Russians are claiming that such supply would be a major escalation - and, of course, it would give the Ukrainians the ability to strike deep into Russia itself.

And right now its all just talk and getting stuff ready for shipment let alone men trained on the systems and into the field which is months away at best. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting the living shit blown out of them.

Thank you for grounding us firmly into reality.

[tabascoboy]

As much as some on Twitter and elsewhere claim that Russia are winning the war, you have to ask what exactly is it that they are winning?

Firstly, the aim of a Ukrainian puppet state shows no sign of coming to pass, not even a 50/50 east/west division. Russia appear to be moving away from de facto independent LPR and DPR to merging the entire Donbass and Kherson area into their own nation by using a false mandate from referenda as per Crimea that will never be recognized by the majority of the G20 and only supported by mainly "rogue" nations outside the G20.

Ukraine are massively unlikely to cede territory under ceasefire or surrender terms ( as things stand). Russia have seen to it that the most important industries have been destroyed and to make the new territory economically viable in its own right will take a huge investment in rebuilding infrastructure, and much of the population have either left or been forcibly removed and may not return. Many of the male inhabitants have been forcibly conscripted; killed, maimed, wounded and those left alive will need immediate medical/psychological support and longer term support for disabilities, perhaps unable to resume their former occupations.

They will also have to retain a huge troop and equipment presence in perpetuity or for as long as the territory remains contested and even afterwards if it's uncontested. All this while sanctions will stay in force and having to replace destroyed or broken ground/air vehicles and armaments; machinery for agriculture and industry. NATO is on the verge of expanding rather than contracting as they would have hoped and while there are clearly divisions in NATO and the EU with some uncooperative and obstructive elements the resolution largely remains to counter this with a united front both militarily and economically. Their assumed vast military power has been shown to be mostly confined to threats, wanton destruction of property and terrorism through abuse of the resident non combatants. Pro-Russian elements in the occupied zones that have been complicit will expect their dues but the militias are already showing signs of disunity and discontent.

It's not at all rosy for Ukraine by any means but they do have the ongoing support for the foreseeable future from Europe and the US whereas Russia will have to rely on China and perhaps Iran both of whom have very much their own priorities at heart. The resources they deemed so critical to the well-being and functioning of Europe to be used as blackmail are now being shunned even if it takes many years for us to be fully independent on them.

It does seem that Russia may prove to be very difficult or impossible to push back behind their internationally recognised borders, I'll grant but as for who are the winners and losers in this war I think will take at least a year to find out and maybe even longer than that. Most likely there will be no real winners and the world as a whole the worse off for it.

[Biffer]

The main thing Russia has achieved is a public demonstration that in a conventional war against NATO, they’d be completely fucked up in a very short amount of time.

[bok_viking]

It seems that Russia has removed the age restrictions for new recruits. That cannot be good news for Russia if they have to start looking for older recruits

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[The Druid]

It seems that Russia has removed the age restrictions for new recruits. That cannot be good news for Russia if they have to start looking for older recruits

Good news, lets hope this crazy bastard is one of the first to sign up for the front line.

Vladimir-Solovyov.

[Flockwitt]

Aye, and they can get that woman presenter to volunteer to drive one of Russia's pop top tanks. We'll see soon enough how gung ho she is then.

[tabascoboy]

Not sure what is happening in Severodonetsk currently, Chechen leader Kadyrov claims their forces are in the city and have control while UA says they are still defending against assault while the inevitable artillery pounding goes on. Another city for Russia to be proud over controlling piles of rubble and corpses...?

[TheFrog]

I read that training for the few guns transfered by France occurred in France. It also took a month to adapt the guns to Ukrainian needs through some modifications apparently. And I read that these things get damaged pretty quickly when used intensively.

Unless the West ramps up military production, I am not sure we can help Ukraine successfully. Apart from the US, and may be the UK, most of the Western armies are underequipped.

[TheFrog]

Not sure what is happening in Severodonetsk currently, Chechen leader Kadyrov claims their forces are in the city and have control while UA says they are still defending against assault while the inevitable artillery pounding goes on. Another city for Russia to be proud over controlling piles of rubble and corpses...?

[FalseBayFC]

The Poles are seriously stepping up to the plate with their assistance. Just announced 18 Krab 155mm self propelled howitzers. Crews already trained on the sly. These can put six rounds per minute down range. They're a very modern piece of kit are maintained to Nato standards. I'm super proud of my adopted country. I hold dual SA/Polish citizenship and pay some tax there. I like to think that some of my tax złoty are contributing towards the end of the Russian invasion.

[robmatic]

The Poles are seriously stepping up to the plate with their assistance. Just announced 18 Krab 155mm self propelled howitzers. Crews already trained on the sly. These can put six rounds per minute down range. They're a very modern piece of kit are maintained to Nato standards. I'm super proud of my adopted country. I hold dual SA/Polish citizenship and pay some tax there. I like to think that some of my tax złoty are contributing towards the end of the Russian invasion.

The Poles I have met seem generally not very fond of Russians. I'm not surprised that they are enthusiastically supporting Ukraine.

[Flockwitt]

The Poles are seriously stepping up to the plate with their assistance. Just announced 18 Krab 155mm self propelled howitzers. Crews already trained on the sly. These can put six rounds per minute down range. They're a very modern piece of kit are maintained to Nato standards. I'm super proud of my adopted country. I hold dual SA/Polish citizenship and pay some tax there. I like to think that some of my tax złoty are contributing towards the end of the Russian invasion.

The Poles I have met seem generally not very fond of Russians. I'm not surprised that they are enthusiastically supporting Ukraine.

^ understatement of the century.

[yermum]

T62s Jesus christ.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530 ... 34848.html

[fishfoodie]

T62s Jesus christ.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530 ... 34848.html

40 years old my arse; they're 50+ years old, & may have had a new engine installed, or some other upgrades, but fundamentally they're still a slightly up-armored 1950s tank, that was retired because it was too slow to keep you with the, then new, BMP-1s

If I was told this was my new ride; I'd either roll a grenade into my COs tent, or just desert.

[Hellraiser]

[redderneck]

T62s Jesus christ.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530 ... 34848.html

40 years old my arse; they're 50+ years old, & may have had a new engine installed, or some other upgrades, but fundamentally they're still a slightly up-armored 1950s tank, that was retired because it was too slow to keep you with the, then new, BMP-1s

If I was told this was my new ride; I'd either roll a grenade into my COs tent, or just desert.

Hmmm. Might be preferable to climbing into anything with an autoloader, no? Fill a gap for relatively static work; low profile, hull down defensive set-ups?

Or maybe it genuinely is a case of beggars can't etc.

[petej]

Not sure what is happening in Severodonetsk currently, Chechen leader Kadyrov claims their forces are in the city and have control while UA says they are still defending against assault while the inevitable artillery pounding goes on. Another city for Russia to be proud over controlling piles of rubble and corpses...?

Isn't he miles behind lines using his forces to threaten russian conscripts?

[Niegs]

T62s Jesus christ.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530 ... 34848.html

40 years old my arse; they're 50+ years old, & may have had a new engine installed, or some other upgrades, but fundamentally they're still a slightly up-armored 1950s tank, that was retired because it was too slow to keep you with the, then new, BMP-1s

If I was told this was my new ride; I'd either roll a grenade into my COs tent, or just desert.

Hmmm. Might be preferable to climbing into anything with an autoloader, no? Fill a gap for relatively static work; low profile, hull down defensive set-ups?

Or maybe it genuinely is a case of beggars can't etc.

I don't know from modern tech, but I'm assuming the counter-battery tech would work if they decided to use them as SP artillery?

Also, that clip must be pure porn to old vets who flew Typhoons, Skyraiders, and Warthogs.