So, coronavirus...

[tabascoboy]

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!
...

Keep safe guys!

Nah, it's #BillGatesBioLabs innit.

[dpedin]

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!
...

Keep safe guys!

Nah, it's #BillGatesBioLabs innit.

15 countries now - Israel, Swiss and Austria added to the list.

[dpedin]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

[petej]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).

Screenshot_20220524-142938.png (197.57 KiB) Viewed 1423 times

[dpedin]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

[Guy Smiley]

A statistical irrelevance in AU/NZ.

Not worth trashing the economy over, but its too late to undo the damage now.

Well, I was curious so I had a look at the first page of the thread :)

[petej]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2022-05-23

This is an interesting publication re deaths due to covid v flu and pneumonia. There are the usual warnings about the data but the ONS appear comfortable that the analysis and the data. It must be remembered that the 'flu and pneumonia' category includes pneumonia deaths and many of these will be unrelated to flu, some will also be related to covid deaths.

Shows that covid was far more deadly then flu/pneumonia and that it impacted more on younger age groups.

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.

Directly comparing COVID-19 deaths with those from flu and pneumonia has limitations. For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases. However, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

In that winter, deaths due to both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia far exceeded those due to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

In the latest winter (December 2021 to March 2022), the number of deaths with COVID-19 as the underlying cause has fallen more in line with those due to flu and pneumonia in pre-coronavirus pandemic years.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is still double that of those due to flu and pneumonia in the same period, as there have been considerably fewer deaths due to flu and pneumonia over the last two winters.

The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

I know it sounds dull but perhaps they don't unpick the flu and pneumonia because it would be impractical to do so particularly if the records are going back a long time. COVID is likely to be recorded more accurately because there has been shitloads of money, effort and technological capability to do so. I'm certain it is the most recorded and traced disease ever.

[dpedin]

It is a very good article. The ONS appear comfortable, more we've been told to analyse this and this is the best we can do with the information we have and here is a load of limitations. The limitations and warnings are there precisely because of what the ONS authors are uncertain about.






The change in flu counting method and flu vaccines is interesting with a similar impact. If you were cynical you could contrast the approaches of 2 governments to reducing flu deaths. You would expect the 2022 COVID number to be between the number for flu prior to vaccination being rolled out to all adults over 65 and the current pre pandemic number (hopefully nearer the latter).
Screenshot_20220524-142938.png

The biggest problem with the data is including deaths from flu and pneumonia together, many pneumonia deaths have nothing to do with flu.

It is interesting that ONS suggest that there is an underestimation of flu deaths because circulating flu increases deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular disease when we know now that covid can lead to increased risk of cardiovascular disease for >12 months post even a mild infection. I would suggest that the likelihood of ongoing illness and death post covid, which is also not recorded accurately, is higher than that of flu? Certainly emerging research suggests, for example, that covid increases risk of cardiovascular disease significantly - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -american/ as an example.

However as the ONS say, these figures do allow us to compare the trends and approximate mortality associated with each.

I know it sounds dull but perhaps they don't unpick the flu and pneumonia because it would be impractical to do so particularly if the records are going back a long time. COVID is likely to be recorded more accurately because there has been shitloads of money, effort and technological capability to do so. I'm certain it is the most recorded and traced disease ever.

Probably right. All the ONS data is based in the ICD - International Classification of Death - codes which I think are managed by WHO so we need to align with international coding systems to allow for cross country research etc. Also depends on what is recorded as cause and/or underlying cause of death on the cert - quite a few can be listed. Most doctors who sign off the forms, who need to be GMC registered, do so pretty well. Both covid and flu/pneumonia can be on the death cert and be coded and counted against both. If ONS say death involves covid or flu/pneumonia then the death cert will have these mentioned anywhere on it and they are counted as an underlying cause.

To be fair to our systems all deaths are recorded and all have cause of death and underlying causes of death in detail on them, so I don't think it wouldn't be correct to suggest that covid is recorded more accurately than other diseases, including flu/pneumonia. However there will be some issues about certs being filled in correctly in some complex cases and that some deaths, albeit a small number, are obviously coded incorrectly - just think how many deaths records needed to be corrected, which they will have been, following the Shipman case! However I suspect the ONS data is pretty accurate for the vast majority of deaths.

[dpedin]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/heal ... ticleShare

Bit of a sobering article based on CDC longitudinal study. More than 1 in 5 of covid patients under 65 suffer lasting problems to one or more organ/system including heart, lungs and kidneys. Looks like covid hasn't gone away?

[dpedin]

Update from WHO on the paediatric hepatitis outbreak. Some scary numbers - of the 650 cases identified in 33 countries so far (probable undercount) 6% have required a transplant and 1% have died. This is not normal and WHO still struggling to identify a cause. I find it somewhat implausible that this isn't linked to either a covid infection or a reduced immune response due to a previous covid infection. However jury is still out and I hope I am wrong because if this is the case then the consequences could be horrendous!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... em/DON-389

[Biffer]

Update from WHO on the paediatric hepatitis outbreak. Some scary numbers - of the 650 cases identified in 33 countries so far (probable undercount) 6% have required a transplant and 1% have died. This is not normal and WHO still struggling to identify a cause. I find it somewhat implausible that this isn't linked to either a covid infection or a reduced immune response due to a previous covid infection. However jury is still out and I hope I am wrong because if this is the case then the consequences could be horrendous!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... em/DON-389

It’s also plausible that it could be from an under developed immune system due to two years of under exposure.

[Ymx]

Exactly

[Grandpa]

Update from WHO on the paediatric hepatitis outbreak. Some scary numbers - of the 650 cases identified in 33 countries so far (probable undercount) 6% have required a transplant and 1% have died. This is not normal and WHO still struggling to identify a cause. I find it somewhat implausible that this isn't linked to either a covid infection or a reduced immune response due to a previous covid infection. However jury is still out and I hope I am wrong because if this is the case then the consequences could be horrendous!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... em/DON-389

It’s also plausible that it could be from an under developed immune system due to two years of under exposure.

Do we know that was the case before Covid appeared? Were the victims those who lacked exposure?

[dpedin]

Update from WHO on the paediatric hepatitis outbreak. Some scary numbers - of the 650 cases identified in 33 countries so far (probable undercount) 6% have required a transplant and 1% have died. This is not normal and WHO still struggling to identify a cause. I find it somewhat implausible that this isn't linked to either a covid infection or a reduced immune response due to a previous covid infection. However jury is still out and I hope I am wrong because if this is the case then the consequences could be horrendous!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... em/DON-389

It’s also plausible that it could be from an under developed immune system due to two years of under exposure.

That is one of the hypothesis that WHO list in the attached paper, that there has been a lower level of adenovirus type 41 circulating for the last two years but they then say. 'Additionally, Type 41 adenovirus infection has not previously been linked to such a clinical presentation in otherwise healthy children.' and that, 'adenovirus infection (which generally causes mild self-limiting gastrointestinal or respiratory infections in young children) does not fully explain the more severe clinical picture observed with these cases.' The absence of a confirmed aetiology is causing concern!

[dpedin]

Update from WHO on the paediatric hepatitis outbreak. Some scary numbers - of the 650 cases identified in 33 countries so far (probable undercount) 6% have required a transplant and 1% have died. This is not normal and WHO still struggling to identify a cause. I find it somewhat implausible that this isn't linked to either a covid infection or a reduced immune response due to a previous covid infection. However jury is still out and I hope I am wrong because if this is the case then the consequences could be horrendous!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... em/DON-389

It’s also plausible that it could be from an under developed immune system due to two years of under exposure.

Do we know that was the case before Covid appeared? Were the victims those who lacked exposure?

This high number of cases of paediatric hepatitis across such a wide number of countries is very unusual although it might be that increased vigilance has identified more cases than usual? However the number of cases identified in Scotland, which has excellent surveillance systems in place, in the last couple of months has been unusually high and significant enough for investigation by PHS and reported to WHO.

There have been cases in a range of countries, some of which locked down and closed schools for example and some which didn't and kept schools open. UK and US have the highest number of confirmed cases but this might be due to better diagnostics? WHO are investigating but no-one sure yet what the cause of the outbreak is.

[Grandpa]

It’s also plausible that it could be from an under developed immune system due to two years of under exposure.

Do we know that was the case before Covid appeared? Were the victims those who lacked exposure?

This high number of cases of paediatric hepatitis across such a wide number of countries is very unusual although it might be that increased vigilance has identified more cases than usual? However the number of cases identified in Scotland, which has excellent surveillance systems in place, in the last couple of months has been unusually high and significant enough for investigation by PHS and reported to WHO.

There have been cases in a range of countries, some of which locked down and closed schools for example and some which didn't and kept schools open. UK and US have the highest number of confirmed cases but this might be due to better diagnostics? WHO are investigating but no-one sure yet what the cause of the outbreak is.

[Ymx]

75% of the hep cases had traceable Adenovirus from the article I read. It doesn’t normally affect kids so badly.

Some possibility’s

Lockdown and excess hygiene has prevented small children from properly developing immune systems, hence the overreaction and hep

Adenovirus has adapted through being less transmitted

Covid had left some damage plus adenovirus, other illness

[dpedin]

Cases on Monkeypox in 12 countries now. WHO still struggling to find links between them all and explain such a widespread distribution of cases. They expect many more cases over the next few weeks given the incubation period. Young folk <50'ish are most at risk as older population will have been vaccinated against smallpox, which offers good protection. Smallpox vaccination was discontinued in early 70s once the virus was all but eliminated. Richer countries stocking up with smallpox vaccines and antiviral treatments for a few weeks now. Internet getting into a frenzy over this - seen many suggesting this is Russian germ warfare!
...

Keep safe guys!

Nah, it's #BillGatesBioLabs innit.

15 countries now - Israel, Swiss and Austria added to the list.

179 confirmed cases since 7th May in UK now - UKHSA report via Sky. Nothing to worry about apparently.

https://news.sky.com/story/monkeypox-71 ... s-12624236

[Calculon]

Is it still mainly infecting the gayers?

[Calculon]

Is it still mainly infecting the gayers?

Yup which seems a bit weird as its just skin contact not like riding that does for you. I did chuckle when the WHO took time out of their busy schedule to note people should still go to pride parades as the current spread is due to activity in nightclubs. Ahhhhh lads

The virus enters the body through broken skin (even if not visible), respiratory tract, or the mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth or the anus)

Homo sex must be a pretty high risk activity for spreading the virus

[dpedin]

I'd say that's just one of those things. Took off there but will spread willingly elsewhere. Anyway if you are getting to have a ride when you are just having a pint and a sing song in the nightclub sounds worth it to me

Whilst there have been a few super spreader events involving the gay community there is now widespread community transmission across all sectors of society. It is spread through close personal contact but also by droplets/aerosol and via fomite transmission ie clothes, bedding, towels, etc. Therefore mask wearing and hand washing is recommended if you are worried about contact.

Problem is that monkeypox has an incubation period of between 5 and 21 days and although not infectious during this period can make it difficult for track and trace. Also it can often look like a bad cold/flu - blisters appear later - so chances are the current figures are a vast under estimate of the level of cases within the UK. Also more likely to affect younger folk as older community will have been vaccinated for smallpox before it was discontinued in early 70s. Who knows what impact covid has had in immune response in young folk and their ability to fight off this becoming a serious event?

[Calculon]

If this monkeypox really does become a problem, surely it can't be that hard to reintroduce the smallpox vax, which is apparently very effective against it.

[dpedin]

If this monkeypox really does become a problem, surely it can't be that hard to reintroduce the smallpox vax, which is apparently very effective against it.

Some Govs are already stocking up - however it is the usual issues about roll out of vaccine, the usual anti-vaxxers crap which will hinder roll out plus of course money and resource, especially if we need a mass roll out of a 4th covid vaccine later this year. As usual 3rd world countries will be in trouble if vaccination is required.

[Calculon]

The biggest danger to any “third world” country will be because of any potential travel ban or the economic impact of a global recession, not any direct health threat from monkeypox.

[Biffer]

If this monkeypox really does become a problem, surely it can't be that hard to reintroduce the smallpox vax, which is apparently very effective against it.

The smallpox vaccine has some significant side effects / adverse reactions at a significantly higher rate than the covid vaccine. They're more likely to use the vac one to provide protective rings for health workers etc if needed.

[JM2K6]

75% of the hep cases had traceable Adenovirus from the article I read. It doesn’t normally affect kids so badly.

Some possibility’s

Lockdown and excess hygiene has prevented small children from properly developing immune systems, hence the overreaction and hep

Adenovirus has adapted through being less transmitted

Covid had left some damage plus adenovirus, other illness

There's no evidence to suggest it's due to reduced immune systems, especially given there's plenty of vulnerable kids who live in restricted ways and have done well before covid hit but haven't seen this before, the huge variation in lockdowns, etc

The virus adapting by not transmitting as much would be a bit strange, no?

[dpedin]

75% of the hep cases had traceable Adenovirus from the article I read. It doesn’t normally affect kids so badly.

Some possibility’s

Lockdown and excess hygiene has prevented small children from properly developing immune systems, hence the overreaction and hep

Adenovirus has adapted through being less transmitted

Covid had left some damage plus adenovirus, other illness

There's no evidence to suggest it's due to reduced immune systems, especially given there's plenty of vulnerable kids who live in restricted ways and have done well before covid hit but haven't seen this before, the huge variation in lockdowns, etc

The virus adapting by not transmitting as much would be a bit strange, no?

It's a mystery ... I wonder what else has been going on in the world that might have had an impact?

[Calculon]

I don’t know about the situation in the UK where it seems there has been a far greater number of these incidents but from a news article I read there does not seem to be any need for undue alarm.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cdc ... 022-05-20/

Dr. Jay Butler, CDC deputy director for infectious diseases, said on a conference call that around half of the children diagnosed in recent months were also infected with a type of adenovirus, a virus that causes the common cold, but the agency is still investigating the exact cause of the illness.
"Evidence is accumulating that there is a role for adenovirus, particularly adenovirus-41," he said.
Butler said one theory is that pandemic mitigation measures may have limited exposure to adenovirus, leading to a "catch up" in infections as social distancing and other efforts were eased.

Compared to pre-pandemic rates, the agency said it has not seen an overall increase in the incidence of severe hepatitis in children, which remains rare with about 1,500 to 2,000 cases identified in a typical year.

While infection by sars cov-2 might play a role it maybe could also be a normal pattern of hepatitis infection that has only now come to light due to better reporting and testing, especially with the heightened awareness of viral infections thanks to the covid pandemic.

[dpedin]

I don’t know about the situation in the UK where it seems there has been a far greater number of these incidents but from a news article I read there does not seem to be any need for undue alarm.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cdc ... 022-05-20/

Dr. Jay Butler, CDC deputy director for infectious diseases, said on a conference call that around half of the children diagnosed in recent months were also infected with a type of adenovirus, a virus that causes the common cold, but the agency is still investigating the exact cause of the illness.
"Evidence is accumulating that there is a role for adenovirus, particularly adenovirus-41," he said.
Butler said one theory is that pandemic mitigation measures may have limited exposure to adenovirus, leading to a "catch up" in infections as social distancing and other efforts were eased.

Compared to pre-pandemic rates, the agency said it has not seen an overall increase in the incidence of severe hepatitis in children, which remains rare with about 1,500 to 2,000 cases identified in a typical year.

While infection by sars cov-2 might play a role it maybe could also be a normal pattern of hepatitis infection that has only now come to light due to better reporting and testing, especially with the heightened awareness of viral infections thanks to the covid pandemic.

Scotland has pretty good surveillance systems via PHS - usually there are 7-8 cases of non A-E hepatitis identified each year without any other underlying condition. So far this year there have been 26 that fall into this category. That's well over 3 times the annual rate and probably closer to 6-7 times given we are only in month 5 and more cases may come to light. This is a red flag for any public health system even allowing for any increased awareness. Whilst numbers are small they are significant.

[Ymx]

75% of the hep cases had traceable Adenovirus from the article I read. It doesn’t normally affect kids so badly.

Some possibility’s

Lockdown and excess hygiene has prevented small children from properly developing immune systems, hence the overreaction and hep

Adenovirus has adapted through being less transmitted

Covid had left some damage plus adenovirus, other illness

There's no evidence to suggest it's due to reduced immune systems, especially given there's plenty of vulnerable kids who live in restricted ways and have done well before covid hit but haven't seen this before, the huge variation in lockdowns, etc

The virus adapting by not transmitting as much would be a bit strange, no?

Assume you read this?

Evidence is accumulating that there is a role for adenovirus, particularly adenovirus-41," he said.
Butler said one theory is that pandemic mitigation measures may have limited exposure to adenovirus, leading to a "catch up" in infections as social distancing and other efforts were eased.

[dpedin]

75% of the hep cases had traceable Adenovirus from the article I read. It doesn’t normally affect kids so badly.

Some possibility’s

Lockdown and excess hygiene has prevented small children from properly developing immune systems, hence the overreaction and hep

Adenovirus has adapted through being less transmitted

Covid had left some damage plus adenovirus, other illness

There's no evidence to suggest it's due to reduced immune systems, especially given there's plenty of vulnerable kids who live in restricted ways and have done well before covid hit but haven't seen this before, the huge variation in lockdowns, etc

The virus adapting by not transmitting as much would be a bit strange, no?

Assume you read this?

Evidence is accumulating that there is a role for adenovirus, particularly adenovirus-41," he said.
Butler said one theory is that pandemic mitigation measures may have limited exposure to adenovirus, leading to a "catch up" in infections as social distancing and other efforts were eased.

It his just that - a theory - one of a few that the CDC are investigating.

NCIRD say there is no previous history of adenovirus subtype 41 causing hepatitis in otherwise healthy children. At worst it usually cause stomach issues in kids. If adenovirus 41 has a role to play here, and isn't just an incidental finding in these cases, then the bold bit is important - it would appear that those kids who have developed hepatitis were not 'otherwise healthy' or have had a event that has caused them to be less able to generate an immune response to an otherwise common virus that doesn't cause hepatitis in healthy kids.

[Ymx]

Yes, of course it’s still a theory for pity’s sake. The cause is still not proven yet, but it’s a leading theory. And there is clearly strong indicators and evidence of a potential link.

[Biffer]

There's no evidence to suggest it's due to reduced immune systems, especially given there's plenty of vulnerable kids who live in restricted ways and have done well before covid hit but haven't seen this before, the huge variation in lockdowns, etc

The virus adapting by not transmitting as much would be a bit strange, no?

Assume you read this?

Evidence is accumulating that there is a role for adenovirus, particularly adenovirus-41," he said.
Butler said one theory is that pandemic mitigation measures may have limited exposure to adenovirus, leading to a "catch up" in infections as social distancing and other efforts were eased.

It his just that - a theory - one of a few that the CDC are investigating.

NCIRD say there is no previous history of adenovirus subtype 41 causing hepatitis in otherwise healthy children. At worst it usually cause stomach issues in kids. If adenovirus 41 has a role to play here, and isn't just an incidental finding in these cases, then the bold bit is important - it would appear that those kids who have developed hepatitis were not 'otherwise healthy' or have had a event that has caused them to be less able to generate an immune response to an otherwise common virus that doesn't cause hepatitis in healthy kids.

To be fair, that’s how science works.evidence - hypothesis - proof.

Three years ago, we would have said there was no previous evidence of a coronavirus causing a worldwide pandemic that killed millions.

Do we know if the last two years have deem in line with normal rates for paediatric hepatitis? I’m assuming they must have been otherwise there would be a hypothesis that this is some kind of catch-up effect.

[dpedin]

Assume you read this?

It his just that - a theory - one of a few that the CDC are investigating.

NCIRD say there is no previous history of adenovirus subtype 41 causing hepatitis in otherwise healthy children. At worst it usually cause stomach issues in kids. If adenovirus 41 has a role to play here, and isn't just an incidental finding in these cases, then the bold bit is important - it would appear that those kids who have developed hepatitis were not 'otherwise healthy' or have had a event that has caused them to be less able to generate an immune response to an otherwise common virus that doesn't cause hepatitis in healthy kids.

To be fair, that’s how science works.evidence - hypothesis - proof.

Three years ago, we would have said there was no previous evidence of a coronavirus causing a worldwide pandemic that killed millions.

Do we know if the last two years have deem in line with normal rates for paediatric hepatitis? I’m assuming they must have been otherwise there would be a hypothesis that this is some kind of catch-up effect.

No discernible change in numbers until the this recent outbreak. An equally worrying issue is that the outbreak is widespread across c20 countries albeit with hotspots in UK and US, that might be due to increased surveillance? However the numbers in Scotland , as quoted above, if we use that as an example are worrying whichever way you look at it. Any unexplained increase in a serious disease in otherwise healthy kids of that magnitude is a red flag.

[Biffer]

Assume you read this?

It his just that - a theory - one of a few that the CDC are investigating.

NCIRD say there is no previous history of adenovirus subtype 41 causing hepatitis in otherwise healthy children. At worst it usually cause stomach issues in kids. If adenovirus 41 has a role to play here, and isn't just an incidental finding in these cases, then the bold bit is important - it would appear that those kids who have developed hepatitis were not 'otherwise healthy' or have had a event that has caused them to be less able to generate an immune response to an otherwise common virus that doesn't cause hepatitis in healthy kids.

To be fair, that’s how science works.evidence - hypothesis - proof.

Three years ago, we would have said there was no previous evidence of a coronavirus causing a worldwide pandemic that killed millions.

Do we know if the last two years have deem in line with normal rates for paediatric hepatitis? I’m assuming they must have been otherwise there would be a hypothesis that this is some kind of catch-up effect.

Thought so, otherwise it would have been part of the conversation. It’s definitely worrying, although it could be a statistical freak - think it’s just outside the 95% of a normal distribution, which would make it unlikely but near from impossible. Can’t rely on that though, needs to be properly investigated and there will be multiple theories that are looked at, which is as it should be.

[JM2K6]

Yes, of course it’s still a theory for pity’s sake. The cause is still not proven yet, but it’s a leading theory. And there is clearly strong indicators and evidence of a potential link.

It's a theory, not a leading one. And no, there's no evidence for it currently. Lockdowns happened and are something out of the ordinary so of course they have to consider it, but the evidence so far is contradicting it as a theory. I'd expect them to prove it one way or another, but then I also expect the "covid's not so bad, lockdown was a mistake, the pandemic is over" crowd to immediately leap on the the lockdown theory so I have to take the rough with the smooth.

[Ymx]

Yes, of course it’s still a theory for pity’s sake. The cause is still not proven yet, but it’s a leading theory. And there is clearly strong indicators and evidence of a potential link.

It's a theory, not a leading one. And no, there's no evidence for it currently. Lockdowns happened and are something out of the ordinary so of course they have to consider it, but the evidence so far is contradicting it as a theory. I'd expect them to prove it one way or another, but then I also expect the "covid's not so bad, lockdown was a mistake, the pandemic is over" crowd to immediately leap on the the lockdown theory so I have to take the rough with the smooth.

Yes it is a leading theory

Cases of this liver inflammation have been reported in more than 22 countries, though the majority are in the UK (around 175) and the U.S. (around 180). Most of the affected children are under age 5. Of the U.S. patients, 9 percent have needed liver transplants. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating five pediatric deaths that might be related.

Disease experts aren’t sure what’s behind these cases, though several hypotheses have begun to emerge. The leading theory is an adenovirus, which often causes cold- or flu-like symptoms or stomach problems.

Nearly half of the U.S. cases tested positive for adenovirus, the CDC said Wednesday. As of last week, that was also the case in around 72 percent of the cases in the UK and 60 percent across Europe.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... /rcna28788

[Biffer]

Yes, of course it’s still a theory for pity’s sake. The cause is still not proven yet, but it’s a leading theory. And there is clearly strong indicators and evidence of a potential link.

It's a theory, not a leading one. And no, there's no evidence for it currently. Lockdowns happened and are something out of the ordinary so of course they have to consider it, but the evidence so far is contradicting it as a theory. I'd expect them to prove it one way or another, but then I also expect the "covid's not so bad, lockdown was a mistake, the pandemic is over" crowd to immediately leap on the the lockdown theory so I have to take the rough with the smooth.

Yes it is a leading theory

Cases of this liver inflammation have been reported in more than 22 countries, though the majority are in the UK (around 175) and the U.S. (around 180). Most of the affected children are under age 5. Of the U.S. patients, 9 percent have needed liver transplants. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating five pediatric deaths that might be related.

Disease experts aren’t sure what’s behind these cases, though several hypotheses have begun to emerge. The leading theory is an adenovirus, which often causes cold- or flu-like symptoms or stomach problems.

Nearly half of the U.S. cases tested positive for adenovirus, the CDC said Wednesday. As of last week, that was also the case in around 72 percent of the cases in the UK and 60 percent across Europe.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... /rcna28788

Let’s be clear here, the ‘not a leading one’ comment was about reduced immune systems not an adenovirus.

[Ymx]

Ok, my bad for not reading it properly. I’d stitched together the two things.

[dpedin]

Small rise in covid cases this week, numbers in hospital running about 5 times they were this time last year. Who would have thought it, it looks like covid hasn't gone away? Possible wee wave coming due to new variants BA4 and BA5?