What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[Calculon]

What is this?

You aren't even reading what I'm posting, and you're editing my posts to remove context.

What lies have I spread?

I'm editing your post to remove your waffle. Macron did not say Putin should not be humiliated. Do yourself a favour and actually read Frog’s thoughtful post.

[tabascoboy]

[Plim]

That is fucking brilliant. Revoking a 12th century treaty founding Moscow.

Stick that up your Mother Russia and your Soviet borders, Mr Putin.

[Rinkals]

What is this?

You aren't even reading what I'm posting, and you're editing my posts to remove context.

What lies have I spread?

I'm editing your post to remove your waffle. Macron did not say Putin should not be humiliated. Do yourself a favour and actually read Frog’s thoughtful post.

More lies (according to you).



And still more lies.

[The Druid]

[Guy Smiley]

Rinkals, you seem to be barking up a couple of the wrong trees...

the simple point that has apparently escaped you is that Macron clearly said humiliating Russia would be a mistake. Russia itself.... not Putin. That is a crucial point of difference. You're getting all hung up about Putin in that context, which is wrong.

[Plim]

Rinkals, you seem to be barking up a couple of the wrong trees...

the simple point that has apparently escaped you is that Macron clearly said humiliating Russia would be a mistake. Russia itself.... not Putin. That is a crucial point of difference. You're getting all hung up about Putin in that context, which is wrong.

It’s hard to see how you do one without the other in this war. The distinction is all a bit Talleyrand.

[FalseBayFC]

It doesn't matter what Macron really said. Its how it was spun and received. Many of the most influential Ukrainian voices picked up on it and used it in their propaganda efforts. Macron and Scholz are not faring well at the moment in the pro-Ukraine social media and trad media spaces and Macron especially could use some PR wins.

[FalseBayFC]

Partisan activity seems to be kicking off in Berdyansk. Its the one facet of the war effort that will bring enormously assymetrical gains to the Ukies. Its just a terrifying ask for people to risk their lives behind enemy lines and possibly suffer reprisals. The guys doing it have massive balls, that's for sure. A while back there was a Twitter post of some captured Belarussian saboteurs who had been destroying railway control equipment. They looked like they had been severely beaten already.

[tabascoboy]

WRT above

[tabascoboy]

The infamous Wagner Merc Andonov


Surely should read: He came, he saw, he died

[Rinkals]

Rinkals, you seem to be barking up a couple of the wrong trees...

the simple point that has apparently escaped you is that Macron clearly said humiliating Russia would be a mistake. Russia itself.... not Putin. That is a crucial point of difference. You're getting all hung up about Putin in that context, which is wrong.

Guy, I fail to see the difference.

The longer Putin (or Russia) keeps this war going, the worse it will be for Ukraine and the rest of the world.

As we speak Putin (and Russia) is preparing to use the Black Sea Fleet to pound Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine needs the weapons to force them to keep their distance.

[tabascoboy]

Also unconfirmed reports of another "misfortune" to a (maybe) Russian general, Major General (?) Andrei Vladimirovich Zagortsev reportedly stepped on a land mine ( a PFM1S, one of their own...) and is badly incapacitated. He served in Chechnya as a Lieutenant-Colonel and wrote a book about his experience, so whether he is still in active service and if so his rank as an officer are not clear.

Although we only have a "codename" this could well be confirmation of the report

[FalseBayFC]

That's fine but they are getting weapons. Why in fucks name would Germany or anywhere else give the very few if any newer weapons it has I personally think the French are mental giving their Caesar systems as I see nothing to suggest Putin won't move onto Moldova etc. You seem to think Western Europe should leave itself bereft of weapons and Putin will just stop andet them restock.

Because the moment that Putin tries it with a Nato country those artillery pieces cease to become an issue. Nato can bring massive air power to bear that would completely nullify armour and artillery. Just Poland, Finland and Sweden alone could halt any ground advance with their air assets. They have long range stand off capacity and stealth that outranges Russian air defence capabilities. SEAD would be accomplished within a day or two.

Finland - 55 F/A 18s
Poland - 48 F16s
Sweden - 71 JAS39 Gripens

Russian ground forces aren't moving 10 miles into Nato territory with that lot. That's before the rest of the Euro countries and USA even launch a plane.

[Calculon]

Rinkals, you seem to be barking up a couple of the wrong trees...

the simple point that has apparently escaped you is that Macron clearly said humiliating Russia would be a mistake. Russia itself.... not Putin. That is a crucial point of difference. You're getting all hung up about Putin in that context, which is wrong.

It’s hard to see how you do one without the other in this war. The distinction is all a bit Talleyrand.

Surely you try to do it by countering Putin’s propaganda that he is Russia and Russia is him, and that the West is seeking to humiliate Russia so that when Russia eventually loses this war, which I believe they will, the Russian public blames Putin for the war and not the West. My perception is influenced due to working with a bunch of Russians (in a former Soviet Republic) that all profess dislike for Putin, but I think many Russians are disconnected enough from the conflict, as well as disliking Putin, to be actually quite ambivalent about the war. Then again, I didn’t think Russia would launch a full-scale invasion so maybe I’m wrong on this too.

[Rinkals]

What is clear to me is that we cannot reset and go back to how it was before February this year, whatever Macron and Scholz might think.

Russia might be able to survive for a while, were the Ukrainians to concede and allow a Russian occupation, but Russia (and Putin) is irretrievably damaged, and I doubt that all the king's horses and all the king's men and can repair her to where she was earlier this year.

I'm actually surprised that the Georgians and Chechnya haven't taken the opportunity to rebel, but I would imagine that that's still coming.

Japan has already taken the Kril Islands, and Russia has border disputes with a number of other countries, not least with China, and one thing that Molotov/Ribbentrop taught us is that invading nations cannot count on their allies not to stab them in the back.

[tabascoboy]

What is clear to me is that we cannot reset and go back to how it was before February this year, whatever Macron and Scholz might think.

Russia might be able to survive for a while, were the Ukrainians to concede and allow a Russian occupation, but Russia (and Putin) is irretrievably damaged, and I doubt that all the king's horses and all the king's men and can repair her to where she was earlier this year.

I'm actually surprised that the Georgians and Chechnya haven't taken the opportunity to rebel, but I would imagine that that's still coming.

Japan has already taken the Kril Islands, and Russia has border disputes with a number of other countries, not least with China, and one thing that Molotov/Ribbentrop taught us is that invading nations cannot count on their allies not to stab them in the back.

Japan hasn't "taken" the Kuril Islands but have reaffirmed their claim to sovereignty over the southern islands after they were forced to cede them to the Soviet Union post WW2 stating that Russia are illegally occupying this territory of Japan

[tabascoboy]

And more plans of Russification

‘The tasks in the Donbas are not trivial’
Meduza’s sources say the Kremlin plans to annex occupied Ukrainian territories and merge them into a new federal district in Russia

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/09 ... ot-trivial

[Calculon]

The Russian Chinese border dispute was settled years ago. The Chinese will take advantage of Russian weakness, but it's quite a stretch to suggest that would take the form of military action. Georgia is an independent country so they won't be "rebelling" , not sure how likely things are to kick of there but I think the current Georgian president has close links to Russia.

[Rinkals]

What is clear to me is that we cannot reset and go back to how it was before February this year, whatever Macron and Scholz might think.

Russia might be able to survive for a while, were the Ukrainians to concede and allow a Russian occupation, but Russia (and Putin) is irretrievably damaged, and I doubt that all the king's horses and all the king's men and can repair her to where she was earlier this year.

I'm actually surprised that the Georgians and Chechnya haven't taken the opportunity to rebel, but I would imagine that that's still coming.

Japan has already taken the Kril Islands, and Russia has border disputes with a number of other countries, not least with China, and one thing that Molotov/Ribbentrop taught us is that invading nations cannot count on their allies not to stab them in the back.

Japan hasn't "taken" the Kuril Islands but have reaffirmed their claim to sovereignty over the southern islands after they were forced to cede them to the Soviet Union post WW2 stating that Russia are illegally occupying this territory of Japan

My point is that the Russians have contested territories and whether Japan have 'taken' them or 'reaffirmed their claim' the result is the same.

Whatever the specifics, it is clear that Putin (and Russia) had territorial ambitions which are now unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, the strength of the Russian Bear has been exposed as a myth, so I do expect Russia to lose territory in the medium to longer term. I may be wrong, but I think that trying to restore Russia's position as a global superpower is a fool's errand. Not only that, but just putting the prospect on the table gives Putin a massive fillip and reaffirms that he is doing the right thing and that his territorial ambitions are justified and achievable.

[FalseBayFC]

The Russian Chinese border dispute was settled years ago. The Chinese will take advantage of Russian weakness, but it's quite a stretch to suggest that would take the form of military action. Georgia is an independent country so they won't be "rebelling" , not sure how likely things are to kick of there but I think the current Georgian president has close links to Russia.

No not direct action in the East. Feeding discontent. The odd governor killed. Few bombs here and there.
Georgia ain't doing nothing currently. Its compromised because as you note their current main billionaire man is a Kremlin chappy.

I've seen reports that some of the ethnic minorities who often form the bulk of Russian shock troop units are starting to mutiny. The Buryats are a Mongolian indigenous group heavily represented in the RUAF. According to the article below they've been withdrawn from the fight due to excessively disproportionate losses. Some of the regions in the Caucuses and the East are highly vulnerable to civil unrest once they realize the extent to which their young men are being expended in the war effort.

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-withdra ... 00409.html

[tabascoboy]

So Lysychansk another city to be pounded into rubble from afar then...thsi doesn't seem good for the UA forces still reportedly fighting in Sievierodonetsk - have they an escape route?

[lemonhead]

So Lysychansk another city to be pounded into rubble from afar then...thsi doesn't seem good for the UA forces still reportedly fighting in Sievierodonetsk - have they an escape route?

June 12 (UPI) -- Russian troops have destroyed two of the three bridges into Sievierodonetsk in a final push to take control of the key city in eastern Ukraine.

Sounds like it, for now

[tabascoboy]

So Lysychansk another city to be pounded into rubble from afar then...thsi doesn't seem good for the UA forces still reportedly fighting in Sievierodonetsk - have they an escape route?

June 12 (UPI) -- Russian troops have destroyed two of the three bridges into Sievierodonetsk in a final push to take control of the key city in eastern Ukraine.

Sounds like it, for now

Unfortunately though, Russia can now concentrate artillery and air strike on a single bridge. Wouldn't like to have to rely on that as an exit point.

and from earlier, how true the weapons claim is, is anyone's guess. Feel like Ukraine really needs some very good news and soon.

Russia 'strikes large depot containing weapons provided by the West'
We reported earlier as Ukraine claimed an enemy attack in the western city of Chortkiv had partly destroyed a military facility.

The missile strike left 22 people injured, including a 12-year-old.

Russia now claims to have destroyed a "large depot of anti-tank missile systems, portable air defence systems and shells provided to the Kyiv regime by the United States and European countries".

It is understood this relates to the same strike.

[FalseBayFC]

Czech Foreign Minister weighs in on Macron's Russia comments.

Czech Foreign Minister: 'Putin doesn’t care how Russia is perceived in the West.'

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky tackled French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent stance on avoiding humiliating Russia. ‘Macron probably doesn’t understand the issue very well,” he said.

[Rinkals]

Czech Foreign Minister weighs in on Macron's Russia comments.

Czech Foreign Minister: 'Putin doesn’t care how Russia is perceived in the West.'

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky tackled French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent stance on avoiding humiliating Russia. ‘Macron probably doesn’t understand the issue very well,” he said.

Watch out, Boet, you are probably going to be called a liar by Calculon.

[FalseBayFC]

Czech Foreign Minister weighs in on Macron's Russia comments.

Czech Foreign Minister: 'Putin doesn’t care how Russia is perceived in the West.'

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky tackled French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent stance on avoiding humiliating Russia. ‘Macron probably doesn’t understand the issue very well,” he said.

Watch out, Boet, you are probably going to be called a liar by Calculon.

Ha ha. Thought I'd provide you a little moral support! For the record I think that Macron and Scholz have been craven and a bit duplicitous on the Ukraine issue.

[petej]

So Lysychansk another city to be pounded into rubble from afar then...thsi doesn't seem good for the UA forces still reportedly fighting in Sievierodonetsk - have they an escape route?

Lysychansk is on a hill. Considering the very slow progress I would be very impressed if Russia takes it in the near future.

[tabascoboy]

Russian forces making advances towards Kharkiv again, most likely with insufficient forces to make a serous attempt on the city but back to within artillery distance and close / threatening enough to divert defensive attention again (also the Belarus mind games north of Kyiv) so they can't commit forces to counterattacks elsewhere. This is sadly what Ukraine is up against, the seemingly endless ability of the Orcs to keep pushing and prodding here and there across a very long land border and conflict zone with little concern for their own losses and intent largely on destruction and plunder. Also Russia seem to be resupplying Snake Island with new air defence systems which would give their Black Sea fleet more capability to do whatever they want.

At least things going a little better for them around Kherson for now, but this is going to be a very tough summer for them even if the West gets its collective arse in gear to increase supply of weapons and munitions - and weapons that can really knock the Russians back as it seems the best hope currently is loss of morale / internal conflicts among the invaders, and the pressure coming to Russian industry from sanctions.

[Rinkals]

Ha ha. Thought I'd provide you a little moral support! For the record I think that Macron and Scholz have been craven and a bit duplicitous on the Ukraine issue.

I was a bit surprised to get attacked, to be honest.

I don't doubt that Putin won't ultimately prevail, but I feel frustrated that the war is being unnecessarily prolonged.

[petej]

Russian forces making advances towards Kharkiv again, most likely with insufficient forces to make a serous attempt on the city but back to within artillery distance and close / threatening enough to divert defensive attention again (also the Belarus mind games north of Kyiv) so they can't commit forces to counterattacks elsewhere. This is sadly what Ukraine is up against, the seemingly endless ability of the Orcs to keep pushing and prodding here and there across a very long land border and conflict zone with little concern for their own losses and intent largely on destruction and plunder. Also Russia seem to be resupplying Snake Island with new air defence systems which would give their Black Sea fleet more capability to do whatever they want.

At least things going a little better for them around Kherson for now, but this is going to be a very tough summer for them even if the West gets its collective arse in gear to increase supply of weapons and munitions - and weapons that can really knock the Russians back as it seems the best hope currently is loss of morale / internal conflicts among the invaders, and the pressure coming to Russian industry from sanctions.

Hope the himars and m270 make a big difference. I noted that the Ukrainians said they now have a bigger stockpile of NATO 155 ammo than they had of 152 ammo in February. A big difficulty to move the Ukrainians to NATO standard kit midway through the conflict. You would expect nations to stop publicising what they are sending which makes sense. Frustrating we can't supply them with planes.

[FalseBayFC]

Russian forces making advances towards Kharkiv again, most likely with insufficient forces to make a serous attempt on the city but back to within artillery distance and close / threatening enough to divert defensive attention again (also the Belarus mind games north of Kyiv) so they can't commit forces to counterattacks elsewhere. This is sadly what Ukraine is up against, the seemingly endless ability of the Orcs to keep pushing and prodding here and there across a very long land border and conflict zone with little concern for their own losses and intent largely on destruction and plunder. Also Russia seem to be resupplying Snake Island with new air defence systems which would give their Black Sea fleet more capability to do whatever they want.

At least things going a little better for them around Kherson for now, but this is going to be a very tough summer for them even if the West gets its collective arse in gear to increase supply of weapons and munitions - and weapons that can really knock the Russians back as it seems the best hope currently is loss of morale / internal conflicts among the invaders, and the pressure coming to Russian industry from sanctions.

Hope the himars and m270 make a big difference. I noted that the Ukrainians said they now have a bigger stockpile of NATO 155 ammo than they had of 152 ammo in February. A big difficulty to move the Ukrainians to NATO standard kit midway through the conflict. You would expect nations to stop publicising what they are sending which makes sense. Frustrating we can't supply them with planes.

Be interesting to see if the Russian artillery start to see hardware failure given all the thousands of rounds they're purportedly firing. I've read that the barrel life on the big howitzers is around 2500 rounds on full charge. Its not just ammo they'll be short of eventually. Same of course applies to the Ukie's guns.

[tabascoboy]

IIRC The Chinese Communist Party used to boast ( dunno if was Mao or someone else): "We could fight over the bodies of 100 miliion dead and still win"

Seem like Russia have taken that to heart

[petej]

Moral doesn't seem great for the russians.


Yummy.

[happytramp]

You get the impression from those calls that eventually, at some stage, the entire Russian war effort is just going to grind to a halt. They'll find the people from somewhere but the food, the vehicles etc that are needed to keep an army going are just going to run out.

[fishfoodie]

You get the impression from those calls that eventually, at some stage, the entire Russian war effort is just going to grind to a halt. They'll find the people from somewhere but the food, the vehicles etc that are needed to keep an army going are just going to run out.

Well you can probably get away with it for awhile; but as others have learnt, it's not somewhere where you want to be trying to fight during a winter !

There won't be any dogs left, & there aren't too many houses with roofs, & all four walls in the combat area.

[derriz]

A load of Daily Express jingoistic shite accusing Germany of blocking a Spanish attempt to supply tanks to Ukraine.

You should read a bit more instead of regurgitating bollox like this. For example https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/06/08 ... raine-yet/

[Rinkals]

A load of Daily Express jingoistic shite accusing Germany of blocking a Spanish attempt to supply tanks to Ukraine.

You should read a bit more instead of regurgitating bollox like this. For example https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/06/08 ... raine-yet/

Eh?

I try to take care not to reference British tabloids, nor do I regard them as a valid news source, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

My source was a Twitter thread which referenced Der Spiegel.



(which link I'd provided, but which you have removed).

My German is ok, but not faultless (I spent formative years in Namibia), but the Spiegel image does seem to address this. The link you provided says that the German opposition parties had called on Scholtz to approve the transfer, but that he had failed to do so (using the excuse that the Spanish had to first make a formal application).

With that in mind, it does not seem unreasonable to conclude that Scholtz is prevaricating.

[Rinkals]

We owe an enormous debt of gratitude towards the Ukrainians and we should be sending them everything they need to fight this fight.

I always felt that Putin's territorial ambitions were not confined to Ukraine. That, had Ukraine tamely capitulated as was widely expected, Moldova would have been next and that Poland and the Baltic States would have been in the frame.

Sooner or later, I believe that Putin would have attacked a NATO country, and then there would have been an obligation for NATO countries to fight, if not with boots on the ground, then certainly with air power.

For this reason, we should be grateful. They are fighting our fight. We should be sending them everything they need.